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Lelorox
05-10-2013, 12:53 PM
In this thread, let's speculate about the in game economy.

To get it started: Do you think that season 1 booster packs will retain/gain value, or do you think the massive influx of boosters caused by this kickstarter campaign will make them basically be worth nothing over time.
As of making this thread and tallying up King tier up booster packs, we have 93,900 packs in circulation. This isn't even including the lower tiers which also give a substantial amount of packs. Any thoughts?

Edit:
Adding up the other tiers we have an additional 26140 packs as of May 10th 2:56 PM EST.
This makes for a total of 120,040. and we're a bit more than half way to the total kickstarter goal.

Mehlo
05-10-2013, 12:58 PM
I think it's going to affect the economy, but not dominate it. It's an initial influx that will cause initial values to be a little nuts (Kind of like the recent neverwinter launch, with all the founders having a LOT of the main currency) but will stabalize over time. With the amount from kickstarter though, it depends on how much of the inital player base is from KS

Xenavire
05-10-2013, 12:58 PM
I think set one will be the least valuable of all at the start, but will grow in value when other sets come out. I don't expect a settled or reasonable AH or economy for at least 6 months, due to the nature of the game, but I can see it being stable at a later date.

Although, with sets being at risk of being retired, sets being cycled, and PvE only cards being earned at varying rates, it could be quite a challenging economy to keep up with. Add in potentially destroying cards, and users leaving with collections of cards, it will be something to see, and I am interested how it will evolve, especially with real money trading in the mix.

houjix
05-10-2013, 01:00 PM
The value of digital packs with remain good because of draft. Individual cards might not, but the hints of the crafting system might change that.

JMFD
05-10-2013, 01:17 PM
I think adding real money into the mix will actually cause the economy to be more stable. There will like in any other card game be flavor of the month combinations causing cards to rapidly increase or decrease in value, but I don't see that happening with the huge influx of users during set one.

Also while there are going to be a large amount of cards in play from the get go due to the kickstarted campaign, there is going to be the 5-6 months in between where users aren't going to be able to pledge and are going to have to start the game from scratch which will immediately give value to our cards.

Mehlo
05-10-2013, 01:19 PM
I think the major issue is going to be how many people jump on between beta and launch, so when launch hits we get an influx of fresh blood.

Must. Generate. HYPE!!!!

Fireblast
05-10-2013, 01:51 PM
actually 120k boosters is nothing.
This game has potential to have million users

~

Mehlo
05-10-2013, 01:54 PM
Potential being the key word there. While this game has the potential to be huge, we can't base too much off what might be.

houjix
05-10-2013, 01:59 PM
I think if you told the devs they would have over 100k active users in a year's time, they would probably be ecstatic.

Lelorox
05-10-2013, 01:59 PM
As it stands it's 120k boosters among 1.6k people. That's a serious problem.

Mehlo
05-10-2013, 02:00 PM
It's only a problem insomuch as the initial people are being kind of the big spenders of the game. There will also most likely be more packs sold overall because of their price point

houjix
05-10-2013, 02:01 PM
As it stands it's 120k boosters among 1.6k people. That's a serious problem.

A 2-4 booster boxes per person is a problem?

Lelorox
05-10-2013, 02:06 PM
http://www.wizards.com/magic/tcg/productarticle.aspx?x=mtg_tcg_abu_productinfo
Premiered at Origins '93 in July of that year, Magic: The Gathering was first released to the general public on August 5, 1993. The "Alpha" set consisted of 295 cards. After the Alpha print run of 2.6 million cards, some corrections were made and the remaining 7.3 million cards were released as the "Beta" set (302 cards).

Just to get a sense of what other alpha releases look like. Just keep in mind that we're not even close to how many boosters could come out of this kickstarter if all of the King + tiers sell out. ~7k x 150 (packs)

Edit: not trying to imply anything, just trying to give this release some context.

Mehlo
05-10-2013, 02:09 PM
I think it's unlikely that all will sell out, and magics initial sets were for a comaratively small audience, probably overall less then have currently kickstarted this game

Fireblast
05-10-2013, 02:31 PM
When WOWTCG came out, every serious player opened like 10 boxes of the first set (draft or boxes).
As houjix implied, 2-4 boxes per backer is no issue

New players will spend $300 over the time while Kings spent $120 6 months before.

~

Lelorox
05-10-2013, 02:35 PM
I'm sorry but every serious player opening 10 boxes gives me absolutely no clue as into how many boxes/ packs were opened. Do you have some numbers about the initial print size etc.?

Malakili
05-10-2013, 04:41 PM
I don't see it being a problem. I mean, the economy will sort itself out over time and in the meantime those of us who invested in the KS will have the cards we need to actually play due to our initial investment.

Shoubushi
05-10-2013, 04:44 PM
There will be a great flood of cards from Set 1 for a long time. I wouldn't expect any of the cards to hold much value (besides staple rares) until they are phased out for a few years and not reprinted. IF they are phased out.

I also wonder, are these actual boosters we are getting, or booster pack redemption's? Because players would be able to hold onto the redemption's for other sets and not have to burn them all on Set 1.

Kami
05-10-2013, 04:49 PM
There will be a great flood of cards from Set 1 for a long time. I wouldn't expect any of the cards to hold much value (besides staple rares) until they are phased out for a few years and not reprinted. IF they are phased out.

I also wonder, are these actual boosters we are getting, or booster pack redemption's? Because players would be able to hold onto the redemption's for other sets and not have to burn them all on Set 1.

Nah, they made it clear it would be actual boosters for Set 1.

Lelorox
05-10-2013, 04:53 PM
I almost think redemtions would be better. It'd create a much more balanced economy at the start IMO. Granted, from a marketing standpoint this will decrease profitability, so they probably won't change their stance on this.

Fireblast
05-10-2013, 05:00 PM
There will be a great flood of cards from Set 1 for a long time. I wouldn't expect any of the cards to hold much value (besides staple rares) until they are phased out for a few years and not reprinted. IF they are phased out.

I also wonder, are these actual boosters we are getting, or booster pack redemption's? Because players would be able to hold onto the redemption's for other sets and not have to burn them all on Set 1.

With AH ingame i don't see how there could be flood, when offer>demand rares will be $1 in AH, why would anyone buy $2 boosters then???
Economy will regulate itself.

~

Shoubushi
05-10-2013, 05:06 PM
why would anyone buy $2 boosters then???

Booster Drafts and Sealed Deck are 2 very good reasons to constantly be purchasing boosters.

S117
05-10-2013, 05:38 PM
Not to mention the mechanics of crafting...I would assume you use card to make other cards...cards that,then, are removed from circulation...

But I haven't seen many details on crafting yet...

Devaux
05-10-2013, 05:42 PM
Is there anybody here familiar with the TF2 trade landscape (where supply is granted to players randomly and at a relatively constant rate from a non-rotating pool). IF sets don't go out of print then maybe thats a more accurate model than other TCGs (as there really aren't any TCGs that have kept sets in-print indefinitely).

Xenavire
05-10-2013, 05:47 PM
That seems fairly accurate given the knowledge we have now. If sets don't cycle, but can be destroyed, it would make sense.

Besides, people forget PvE will have the same issues, godly cards eventually becoming so common that everyone will have them, unless they are destroyed or somehow rendered useless or are removed... So they must have a way to balance things.

Blare731
05-10-2013, 06:09 PM
Honestly so far a little less than 2k people have pledged which is amazing. But compared to the entire base player population. That is potentially and hopefully < 5-10% So far of course.

Also the cards will not be flooded because I know every card that I can't see a viable use in my current decks that I have plenty of extras are getting grinded down for plenty of mats for crafting. Now many people may disagree or agree and it's really to each his/her own but in the end there will be no "flood" of cards.

Lelorox
05-10-2013, 09:17 PM
Booster Drafts and Sealed Deck are 2 very good reasons to constantly be purchasing boosters.

what about the auction house + the giant flood of cards from this kickstarter?

WWKnight
05-10-2013, 09:19 PM
Yeah im thinking the Auction house wont be very reliable for the first few months until this glut of cards has had a chacne to settle down.

Lelorox
05-10-2013, 10:30 PM
577 If anyone is curious about my numbers: here's a pretty basic spreadsheet I made about upper profits from limited reward tiers and amt of boosters in circulation as of 20 min ago.

Note: the spreadsheet covers all the rewards, but spans 2 pages so it's not easy to take a screen shot of all the data.

Edit: may have screwed up the function a bit, sorry I'm a tad drunk. I'm going to fix it once I get some sleep.

Fireblast
05-11-2013, 02:25 AM
what about the auction house + the giant flood of cards from this kickstarter?

This is where we disagree, the amount of boosters/cards is not giant by any means.

~

WWKnight
05-11-2013, 02:35 AM
Relatively. The thing is, when we go inside the game, there wont really be anyone who needs anything because those packs will keep us covered. It will take a while for anyone to actually need to use the AH at all.

Fireblast
05-11-2013, 02:59 AM
Relatively. The thing is, when we go inside the game, there wont really be anyone who needs anything because those packs will keep us covered. It will take a while for anyone to actually need to use the AH at all.

You're being delusional too.
The game will be new, all cards will be played/tested in decks, so there will be high demand for everything, and 200boosters aint gonna get a you a playset of the 350 cards.

~

WWKnight
05-11-2013, 03:06 AM
If you feel that way :)

Daer
05-11-2013, 03:12 AM
The number of backers right now is 2083, that is a small percentage (hopefully very small) of the people who will be playing at launch. The non-backers will have to buy boosters or be buying lots of cards off the AH. The amount of boosters in the kickstarter is just a drop compared to how many will be in the game after launch.

WWKnight
05-11-2013, 03:14 AM
And launch will be months after beta kicks off is the point I am making.

Fireblast
05-11-2013, 03:25 AM
We all know that guilds and addictions die during summer, so launching beta in september with good advertisement (something CZE has to work on) will drain ALOT of players.

~

Lelorox
05-11-2013, 07:31 AM
The number of backers right now is 2083, that is a small percentage (hopefully very small) of the people who will be playing at launch. The non-backers will have to buy boosters or be buying lots of cards off the AH. The amount of boosters in the kickstarter is just a drop compared to how many will be in the game after launch.

This is my relative concern.

JoonYoungK
05-11-2013, 08:47 AM
I agree with Daer. For the popular kickstarters there is ALWAYS a large amount of people who miss it or will be drawn to the game on release. When this game releases there should be a large amount of people playing that do not have 300 or so free boosters. Initially it will probably be mostly backers, but given a month or two i'm sure the good cards will be weeded out with lots of demand from those without.