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Drake6k
05-21-2013, 10:28 AM
I was wondering... Can booster packs be sold on the Auction House?

I mean, I'm getting... what, 390 packs with GK+Pro? (Plus starter decks.) What if I resell them for $1.99 each?

It really would feel like giving up my first born, but it would completely pay for my pledges and I could just build my collection from free drafts and pve. This might actually make the game more fun and rewarding for me.

If this is actually possible, all the more reason to buy as many tiers as you want... (I'm also looking for any reason to feel good about my investment.)

Tyrfang
05-21-2013, 10:29 AM
There will probably be a glut of Set 1 boosters which will result in a lower price for them until the KS supply dwindles.

Kroan
05-21-2013, 10:30 AM
You most likely can trade them, yes. I don't think anyone will be buying them for $1.99 at launch though, since everyone will have an insane amount of them. Most likely expect packs to sell for around $1.50 or so.

ru2dvs
05-21-2013, 10:34 AM
Yup -- you can sell off your boosters. Specifically, they said something about primals being visible before opening so that they can be AHed, implying that AH allows boosters to be sold.

Still, don't expect $2 for your packs, given that there will be many people with a ton of them from the KS, who are also looking to sell some of them for the same reason as you, or to just get platinum to keep drafting.

Tyrfang
05-21-2013, 10:36 AM
I'm actually concerned that there are too many packs for the number of pledgers. I hope enough non-KS players join the game early on or else the economy might be wonky for a long time.

Although the daily pledge, monetarily, has been staying quite high, the average daily count of backers has been shrinking.

Sci3nce
05-21-2013, 10:51 AM
Edit: oops.

Brewdinar
05-21-2013, 10:54 AM
I'm actually concerned that there are too many packs for the number of pledgers. I hope enough non-KS players join the game early on or else the economy might be wonky for a long time.

I had expected this to be a big problem but recently realized it probably won't be as bad as we've thought if what I've read is correct. I believe we're getting our reward packs during beta, where many of them will be ripped open for drafts, collecting, and taking advantage of the whales buying singles early on the AH. By the time of release, we should have a halfway-functioning economy.

Tyrfang
05-21-2013, 10:56 AM
Seems like a waste to use the packs for anything besides drafts/sealed.

Hexmage
05-21-2013, 10:59 AM
Set one packs will not be worth anything after release, since there is such a humongous amount of set 1 cards from rewards. Which will result in low prices for most of the cards the chase rare from this set will be worth less than the chase rares for coming sets.

Edit: This is true at least until the game gains a lot more popularity

Pezzle
05-21-2013, 11:03 AM
The number of people who has pledged at multiple tiers is pretty high. That is a vast number of cards among a tiny populace. I do not see the advantage in having multiple kings, but people are doing it. i mean, the Lotus may have value eventually. The rest?

dogmod
05-21-2013, 11:03 AM
I suppose it all depends on the # of people who end up playing the game... If the game doesn't reach a critical mass until a few sets in after set 1 has been phased out then I don't know that I would agree that they will be worth less... I think that you could state that they would be worth less than they otherwise would be worth without the large amount of packs given out. But you could also imagine if they weren't providing the rewards they would have less backers, less support, less media attention, less word of mouth, and in the end possibly less of a critical mass of players = less value of cards.

I am just stoked to play blahah

Barov
05-21-2013, 11:19 AM
The number of people who has pledged at multiple tiers is pretty high. That is a vast number of cards among a tiny populace. I do not see the advantage in having multiple kings, but people are doing it. i mean, the Lotus may have value eventually. The rest?

I honestly don't think the Lotus will ever be valuable. I mean you have over 2000 people generating one every day.

Fireblast
05-21-2013, 11:20 AM
And each PvE deck will require 4 of those.
It all depends if we're 5000 or 1 000 000 playing :)

~

Floru
05-21-2013, 11:35 AM
I honestly don't think the Lotus will ever be valuable. I mean you have over 2000 people generating one every day.

I would figure that maybe in 3 or 4 years, the lotus may climb to having a value if the KS backers decline.

Barov
05-21-2013, 11:37 AM
And are people really going to buy a card that can only be used once?

Pezzle
05-21-2013, 11:39 AM
Sure they will. People paid 1k for a novelty card, right?

houjix
05-21-2013, 11:40 AM
And are people really going to buy a card that can only be used once?

Not for real money, but in game gold probably. Some may want to get at least 4 if they want to do something with the cat in the future. Also you can still play it to draw a card effectively making your deck 4 cards smaller. No need to use the second part if you don't want. Plus it combos really nicely with some of the dwarf related cards.

droth25
05-21-2013, 11:42 AM
They said that once the next set comes out that you won't be able to buy old set, so probably until the next set gets released your KS packs will be worthless.

jai151
05-21-2013, 11:43 AM
I honestly don't think the Lotus will ever be valuable. I mean you have over 2000 people generating one every day.

I'm not so sure about that. I mean, the lotii will be being destroyed just as fast as they are generated, and if the game does any kind of numbers and has a decent percentage PVE audience, generation won't be close to keeping up with demand.

houjix
05-21-2013, 11:45 AM
They said that once the next set comes out that you won't be able to buy old set, so probably until the next set gets released your KS packs will be worthless.

Care to find any reference for that? Sets may eventually go out of print, but it won't be right when set 2 comes out.

jai151
05-21-2013, 11:53 AM
They said that once the next set comes out that you won't be able to buy old set, so probably until the next set gets released your KS packs will be worthless.

Most definitely not the case. They have said they are following the "block" format (3 linked releases per block), which would necessitate the first set sticking around at least through the third

Yasi
05-21-2013, 11:56 AM
First Set is going to be around for at least 2 years...

yovalord
05-21-2013, 12:12 PM
Just to give you some perspective, as of right now, the kickstarter ALONE, and WITHOUT the stretch goal extras, crypto has handed out: 602300 booster packs for SET 1.

Thats:

-602300 rares/legendaries
-1806900 uncommons
- 6625300 commons

All spread about across around 6500 backers. And we still have 16 days to go :D So in otherwords, set ONE will be insanely flooded, and the cards will NOT hold much value unless you have alternate arts and such. I wouldn't even expect to get more than 99cents per pack in the AH if that even. Set 1 and 2 probably wont have much value at all~

dogmod
05-21-2013, 12:15 PM
Just to give you some perspective, as of right now, the kickstarter ALONE, and WITHOUT the stretch goal extras, crypto has handed out: 602300 booster packs for SET 1.

Thats:

-602300 rares/legendaries
-1806900 uncommons
- 6625300 commons

All spread about across around 6500 backers. And we still have 16 days to go :D So in otherwords, set ONE will be insanely flooded, and the cards will NOT hold much value unless you have alternate arts and such. I wouldn't even expect to get more than 99cents per pack in the AH if that even. Set 1 and 2 probably wont have much value at all~

That sounds like a lot until you consider/hope that the game could break 1 million or more active players... then that seems like a rather small number... 0.6 TOTAL(not of each) rare/legendary cards per player if it reaches that #... Thats what they hope and it is a # I would hope for. And without knowing the crafting system it is hard to know if you might need to break down some of these cards to get mats for crafting etc...

yovalord
05-21-2013, 12:16 PM
First Set is going to be around for at least 2 years...

it will be around in play possibly, but set two will be out probably as beta ends or maybe even before it.

yovalord
05-21-2013, 12:19 PM
That sounds like a lot until you consider/hope that the game could break 1 million or more active players... then that seems like a rather small number... 0.6 TOTAL(not of each) rare/legendary cards per player if it reaches that #... Thats what they hope and it is a # I would hope for. And without knowing the crafting system it is hard to know if you might need to break down some of these cards to get mats for crafting etc...

Eventually they might hit 1mill players, but not at launch and certainly not beta, id expect around 100k players at launch, unless they hook up with steam, then we will probably see triple that number and a much faster growing community.

dogmod
05-21-2013, 12:23 PM
Eventually they might hit 1mill players, but not at launch and certainly not beta, id expect around 100k players at launch, unless they hook up with steam, then we will probably see triple that number and a much faster growing community.

And say that we are on set 5(set x) by that time and set 1 has been phased out of active purchase.. and pretend that each of the active players would buy an average of 3 boosters of that set 5 (low average in my opinion but whatever)... now they have 3 million boosters of set 5 compared to the 600k they gave away of set 1... Now you might argue that people will be buying/proplayering more sets of set 1... you would be right but as you yourself stated there will be less people during set 1 (less demand) and an already sizable # of boosters relative to the initial amount of players (and as we both hope there will be many more later) leading to decreased initial purchasing of boosters relative to future booster purchasing... I think set1 still will have sizable value

yovalord
05-21-2013, 12:30 PM
And say that we are on set 5(set x) by that time and set 1 has been phased out of active purchase.. and pretend that each of the active players would buy an average of 3 boosters of that set 5 (low average in my opinion but whatever)... now they have 3 million boosters of set 5 compared to the 600k they gave away of set 1... Now you might argue that people will be buying/proplayering more sets of set 1... you would be right but as you yourself stated there will be less people during set 1 (less demand) and an already sizable # of boosters relative to the initial amount of players (and as we both hope there will be many more later) leading to decreased initial purchasing of boosters relative to future booster purchasing... I think set1 still will have sizable value

My point is moreso based on selling packs at the get go, yes maybe way down the line if hex blows up and we have 1million people playing by set 5, if set 1 goes out of print, it may in fact be valuable, but in the short term? not at all~

dogmod
05-21-2013, 12:39 PM
My point is moreso based on selling packs at the get go, yes maybe way down the line if hex blows up and we have 1million people playing by set 5, if set 1 goes out of print, it may in fact be valuable, but in the short term? not at all~

Short term flooding is very likely true... but when you referenced the value of set 2 it would seem to me you were changing the dynamic of the conversation from just short term to a longer term argument. I think we are on the same page though.. interesting debate

Karnegal
05-21-2013, 12:45 PM
It's also important to note that for any set, buying from CZ is always better than buying on the AH at equal or near equal price because you have a chance for getting a primal pack from CZ. The price of PvP cards will be significantly depressed at launch (which may actually be good because it will make buying in appealing for people who didn't get in on the kickstarter). The money at launch will be in Legendary PvE cards, rare/legendary equipment, and probably crafting materials. As a reference MtG has 12 million+ players (http://www.theverge.com/2012/9/20/3326708/magic-the-gathering-players-championship). CZ is obviously starting with a far lower amount, but their game is also more accessible. So if they can get Duels of the Planeswalker numbers, thy'd be looking at a player base in the millions.

Hibbert
05-21-2013, 12:55 PM
Given yovalord's numbers, that's about 9 million cards. Let's say that doubles by the time the KS closes, and we end up with an initial run of 20 million cards or so. How many more Set 1 cards enter play is harder to guess. Let's guess an even 100 million(kinda a lowball, if anyone wants to guess better, feel free). Let's compare that to some Magic print runs(main sets and standalones, the other expansions have pretty low numbers). Data from Crystal Keep (http://www.crystalkeep.com/magic/index.php)

Alpha/Beta 10.4 million
Unlimited 40 million
Revised 500 million
4th Edition 500 million
Ice Age 500 million
Mirage 400 million
Tempest 400 million

Now we don't know the number of people who will be playing Hex(or even the number of active Magic players during those times). But even a final run of 200-300 million for Set 1 doesn't seem like too big a glut, given the potential longevity of the game.

Fateanomaly
05-21-2013, 08:52 PM
The crafting system will have an effect on the abundance of set 1 cards. If the crafting components are fixed, i.e. set 1 breaks down into the same components as future sets, then the flood of set 1 cards will eventually be consumed until the value is on par with future sets.

For me, i will open enough to get the cards i wanted and then keep the rest until the value goes up.

HecatesLover
05-21-2013, 09:06 PM
Considering how well the kickstarter is doing there will be some advertising going on leading up to launch. This will likely lead to a huge influx of plain vanilla (no bonuses) accounts investigating the advertisements they have seen. This large pool of cards will have a demand in those players.

Deathfog
05-21-2013, 11:27 PM
How many boosters do you expect to build a competitive set 1 deck though. 150 sounds like a lot, but that's only 150 rares and the best cards are had in 4s usually. How many people will stop at one competitive deck, or even 3? The initial 'glut' of packs will likely just be consumed by the KSers themselves then the craving for more will begin. This time next year, I'm sure thousands of people will regret not getting in on as many Kings as they could have cheaply acquired during this oh so brief KS.

djlowballer
05-21-2013, 11:38 PM
It's also important to note that for any set, buying from CZ is always better than buying on the AH at equal or near equal price because you have a chance for getting a primal pack from CZ.

That logic doesn't really hold up because the main reason to buy boosters is drafting. Opening boosters to build a deck is gambling and trying for a primal is gambling on top of that. Buying boosters for all your needs, even at only 10c below normal price gives you savings enough to just buy a primal pack when you want one.

Deathfog
05-21-2013, 11:45 PM
That logic doesn't really hold up because the main reason to buy boosters is drafting. Opening boosters to build a deck is gambling and trying for a primal is gambling on top of that. Buying boosters for all your needs, even at only 10c below normal price gives you savings enough to just buy a primal pack when you want one.

A Primal is worth roughly 15 times the value of a normal pack, slightly less due to the loss of uncommons, or $30. We have no idea of the rarity of these or if they have a guaranteed legendary similar to how regular packs guarantee a rare. Primals will devalue secondary market packs relative to their generation rate. If they have any bonuses regarding Legendaries, while unlikely, would highly skew numbers for collectors.

katkillad
05-22-2013, 04:02 AM
I think packs could sell for as low as $1 dollar, especially if everyone thinks they are just going to unload 200-300 boosters to try to make a profit or get some of their "investment" back.

Karnegal
05-22-2013, 07:39 AM
Most people building competitive decks buy singles. So the answer is 0 packs because they aren't opening packs for singles. They're drafting packs and paying plat for singles.

Turtlewing
05-22-2013, 08:51 AM
Most people building competitive decks buy singles. So the answer is 0 packs because they aren't opening packs for singles. They're drafting packs and paying plat for singles.

Either you've missed the point and are focusing on too small a minority of the playerabe (casuals outnumber competitive players in every game), or you've failed to understand the question.

"How many boosters would a casual player have to open (on average) before they've fallen ass-backwards into having the contents of a tier 1 deck" might be a more clear way of phrasing it.

Karnegal
05-22-2013, 09:37 AM
Either you've missed the point and are focusing on too small a minority of the playerabe (casuals outnumber competitive players in every game), or you've failed to understand the question.

"How many boosters would a casual player have to open (on average) before they've fallen ass-backwards into having the contents of a tier 1 deck" might be a more clear way of phrasing it.

My argument is in opposition to Deathfog's post. Looking at number of packs as, "well people will want to build competitive decks" is wrong. People who want to build competitive decks will generally buy singles. People who are busting packs for fun are a different demo with different goals. The question you're asking is a different one.

To clarify: His question seems to suppose that players who build competitive decks do so with boosters. This is a poor assumption.

Deathfog
05-22-2013, 10:03 AM
Number of backers is still increasing, money being made per day is peaking perhaps as they are nearing the end of their planned campaign after only 2 weeks rather than 4.