PDA

View Full Version : Set 1 flood speculation~



yovalord
05-21-2013, 12:26 PM
I posted this in another thread, but i think this is actually interesting enough to make a specific thread about it :D

Just to give you some perspective, as of right now, the kickstarter ALONE, and WITHOUT the stretch goal extras, crypto has handed out: 602300 booster packs for SET 1.

Thats:

-602,300 rares/legendaries
-1,806,900 uncommons
- 6,625,300 commons

I think if hex doesn't team up with Steam, we probably shouldnt expect more than 70-100k players at the launch of the game (certainly nowhere near that at beta, like 10-15k in the beta). So that's a lot of set 1 cards going out in a burst to a not so huge amount of people. What i was wondering was more along the lines of:

- What do you guys think boosters will cost in the AH (retail will be 2$)

- What will single cards be worth? rares/legendaries? Cards from the top constructed decks?

- Are tiers below king even getting a deal?

Just some thoughts that I've speculated. What do you guys think?

Floru
05-21-2013, 12:29 PM
I think this is a brilliant tactic. You have very cheap set 1 cards, everyone who wants to play the game can get in on a dime sans drafting. Then when Set 2 rolls around, there will be a micro-flood (everyone who gets 50 x tiers pledged) packs of Set 2.. and when Set 3 rolls around, you won't get anything unless you pay money or have ins with a friend or better yet, a producer :)

jai151
05-21-2013, 12:31 PM
- What do you guys think boosters will cost in the AH (retail will be 2$)

This completely depends on the smallest denomination of Platinum. I wouldn't expect it to be too far below the store price, though, as packs will still be needed for drafts and many people will open packs until they have a full playset.


- What will single cards be worth? rares/legendaries? Cards from the top constructed decks?

No idea yet, way too soon to speculate


- Are tiers below king even getting a deal?

Yes.

BossHoss
05-21-2013, 12:32 PM
I think this is a brilliant tactic. You have very cheap set 1 cards, everyone who wants to play the game can get in on a dime sans drafting. Then when Set 2 rolls around, there will be a micro-flood (everyone who gets (50 x tiers pledged) packs of Set 2.. and when Set 3 rolls around, you won't get anything unless you pay money or have ins with a friend or better yet, a producer :)

Agreed 100% Their business model from the beginning has been "We believe in Hex so much that we are convinced you will be hooked" by slowly removing the freebies

Xenavire
05-21-2013, 12:35 PM
And dont forget, you want lots of set 1 cards if they retire sets - those cards will be out of print, and you know what happens to those over time. If you want even a slim chance of picking up those cards in the future, you need a lot of them at launch.

And 6 million commons is barely anything when you need 60 cards for a deck - 6million/60=100,000 decks. Sound about right really, giving a bit of leeway for decks with free resources and other factors.

I mean, I would rather be flooded in commons to make a half decent pauper deck than to have a dead AH because everyone is haording their precious cards.

Turtlewing
05-21-2013, 12:37 PM
Well that works out to be about 91 boosters per player on overage (based on the number of pledges).

if Kickstartes are 50% of the release audience (not unreasonable since Kickstarters have to pay but the game will release as free to play), you're looking at about 45 boosters per person. I wouldn't call that "flooded".

Floru
05-21-2013, 12:38 PM
Agreed 100% Their business model from the beginning has been "We believe in Hex so much that we are convinced you will be hooked" by slowly removing the freebies

That and I'm sure they'll have a feature out by Set 3 that will introduce new players that did not get-in during Set 1. It's a win-win situation for Crypto :)

yovalord
05-21-2013, 12:41 PM
My own guesses are:

- What do you guys think boosters will cost in the AH (retail will be 2$)

Set 1 i wouldnt expect to be more than $1.50 until it goes out of print, and probably less than 1$ at the AH launch. I say this because i think there are a lot of people who are justifying buying these kickstarter packages by the idea that they can sell and make their money back, lots of people will be posting and undercutting.

- What will single cards be worth? rares/legendaries? Cards from the top constructed decks?

With set 1 especially, i wouldnt expect more than like 2$ for a single card unless there is like a must have legendary for constructed cookie cutter decks :D. Commons will probably be worthless, uncommons <$.50, and rares unless they are part of a bread and butter online tournament deck i would assume around $.50 - $1.00, and $2-$10 for the ones that are. ($ values in plat)

- Are tiers below king even getting a deal?

Maybe? Its no secret that people are buying for the boosters, the extra stuff is just that in the tiers below king~ if boosters are dirt cheap, they may not be the best deal.

Karnegal
05-21-2013, 12:55 PM
Look at MTGO (boosters cost $4 vs $2 in Hex, and cards can be redeemed for paper sets to expand your market).

Non -staple in print rares are $.05, mythics are as low $.05. Top in print rares are as high as $6 after the rush for a new set subsides. Top staple Mythics are as high as $40 but usually drop to $30 after the initial rush. I would halve those price for Hex and maybe shave a little more because they aren't tied to a paper card market at all. So $3ish as a cap on rares and $15-20 for mythics.

Boosters are probably around $1. Maybe even lower with the glut of set 1 cards. Hopefully plat is in smaller denominations than $1.

Ramshackal
05-21-2013, 12:57 PM
This also effects the perceived initial value of the Pro Player Tier as people have been doing calculations based on a $7 value per draft. It's more like a $4 value per draft until set two is released if you can pick up auction house packs for $1.

ForgedSol
05-21-2013, 01:00 PM
Not to mention the number of key rares/legendary cards that will likely end up in constructed decks that require playsets. Then that 600,000+ number of rares/legendaries doesn't look so big when you are trying to find specific ones that everyone wants.

yovalord
05-21-2013, 01:03 PM
Not to mention the number of key rares/legendary cards that will likely end up in constructed decks that require playsets. Then that 600,000+ number of rares/legendaries doesn't look so big when you are trying to find specific ones that everyone wants.

yeah, kinda why i feel they will be the only cards of value in set 1

Xenavire
05-21-2013, 01:16 PM
yeah, kinda why i feel they will be the only cards of value in set 1

I wouldn't be so sure - I have been eyeing up a few commons, thinking they share such great synergy with what I am planning. And some commons were always decent, especially in certain decks, and I doubt this will be any different.

Expect a few weeks in to have people buing new packs because there aren't enough cards to go around.

yovalord
05-21-2013, 02:18 PM
I wouldn't be so sure - I have been eyeing up a few commons, thinking they share such great synergy with what I am planning. And some commons were always decent, especially in certain decks, and I doubt this will be any different.

Expect a few weeks in to have people buing new packs because there aren't enough cards to go around.

I personally plan on using my boosters primarily on sealed tournaments~ as i have the free draft token every week. I dont think i plan on cracking any open myself.

Xenavire
05-21-2013, 02:38 PM
I personally plan on using my boosters primarily on sealed tournaments~ as i have the free draft token every week. I dont think i plan on cracking any open myself.

If you are pro tier, I think the drafts are stuck to drafts, not sealed, and the boosters come free.

Sci3nce
05-21-2013, 03:18 PM
I wouldn't worry too much about the Rare's and Legendaries. Even with only 50k players, thats only 12 Rare/Legendary per person. Since you need 4 of a card for your deck, unless there is only 3 different ones, there will be demand. Commons and uncommon will be cheap but they always are.

Drake6k
05-21-2013, 03:24 PM
Since you can use packs obtained from anywhere in draft/sealed, no one is going to buy the $2 until the KS packs sell out. I'm sure people will undercut each other, but eventually those packs will run out (a lot of people are going to open their own packs you know...) and even $1.99 (if a possible amount) will be superior to $2.

There is the issue of the all rare/legendary packs though, which might urge people to the $2 ones... but I imagine most people will be buying regular ones for draft/sealed anyway.

yovalord
05-21-2013, 03:34 PM
Well, i dont agree that 1.99 is superior to 2$ packs in the AH because id be willing to put up the extra penny for the low chance at a primal (which will likely be .5-1% chance) With primals in play i dont the the AH will ever have packs above $1.70. 30 cents is at least the price id pay extra for the gamble on a primal :D

yovalord
05-21-2013, 03:35 PM
If you are pro tier, I think the drafts are stuck to drafts, not sealed, and the boosters come free.

Yeah yeah, i meant with the 155 free boosters i will be getting~

IndigoShade
05-21-2013, 03:38 PM
Yeah yeah, i meant with the 155 free boosters i will be getting~

Wait, your pledge was free? I got bamboozled! :mad:

Joolz
05-21-2013, 03:39 PM
I actually don't expect there to be much a flood at any rate, there's like 7k backers right now, say maybe another 3k pledge before the funding period ends giving a total of 10k. Best case scenario the game comes out 6 months after that. Of course no one knows for sure but I expect many more people become interested in the game by then.

Ebynfel
05-21-2013, 03:50 PM
You also have to figure that with the likelihood of a TCG, that eventually there should be more players than there were starting out. Those of us who found the kickstarter are fortunate enough to get these bonuses at areduction in price. Howver, set 2 or 3 SHOULD see the population grow, especially if the E-Sports side of Hex makes an impact on the gaming community.

All of this "Set 1 " Bloat will, hopefully, be minimized by the addition of new players in the future as sets rotate, and having more of the stock in players' hands means that in the long run, there will be less of a discrepancy between the numbers of cards available from Set 1 vs Set 7, for example.

Karnegal
05-21-2013, 03:56 PM
For a comparison, on MTGO boosters currently sell for 2.50-3.80 on the secondary market depending on supply. (if you're in the 3rd set of a block, the first set usually costs more because there aren't as many of those packs floating around).

Xenavire
05-21-2013, 04:15 PM
I just want to point one thing out I just noticed - since there are no finite printing runs, the amount of supply is directly equal to the demand - the first set will probably see the lowest amount of players, before the game grows into a stable community - sets down the line may end up with double or triple the total sales due to the playerbase growing.

If that makes any sense.

Ebynfel
05-21-2013, 04:24 PM
That kinda goes along with what I meant, but very awkwardly said, Xena. As time goes on, later sets should see a much wider playerbase than set 1. As such, saturating the market with early sets will ensure more early set cards are out there by comparison, when the cards have a higher demand if sets rotate out.

Hadin
05-21-2013, 04:31 PM
I actually don't expect there to be much a flood at any rate, there's like 7k backers right now, say maybe another 3k pledge before the funding period ends giving a total of 10k. Best case scenario the game comes out 6 months after that. Of course no one knows for sure but I expect many more people become interested in the game by then.

I think we are closer to 5k actual backers right now, given the amount of people springing for multiples.

yovalord
05-21-2013, 04:41 PM
I just want to point one thing out I just noticed - since there are no finite printing runs, the amount of supply is directly equal to the demand - the first set will probably see the lowest amount of players, before the game grows into a stable community - sets down the line may end up with double or triple the total sales due to the playerbase growing.

If that makes any sense.

well i honestly believe set 1 will outnumber set 2 and maybe even set 3, mainly because of the kickstarter burst~

yovalord
05-21-2013, 04:43 PM
Wait, your pledge was free? I got bamboozled! :mad:

Well a friend DID pay 160 of my 250$ tier~ c:

Tyranth
05-21-2013, 04:46 PM
Don't forget that they will have card sinks in place, example- crafting system. This will remove some flooding from the market, as people play the hell out of the ton of PvE stuff to do.

Xenavire
05-21-2013, 04:54 PM
well i honestly believe set 1 will outnumber set 2 and maybe even set 3, mainly because of the kickstarter burst~

But set 1 is the core set - we will need it as a crutch to get the game running smoothly. I don't think it will hurt to have more of set 1. And set 1 will cycle out when set 4 comes, but people can still buy the other sets (or at least that is how it sounds so far) so it should be fine - more players will come and buy in, balancing the numbers a bit.

C-Drive
05-21-2013, 06:14 PM
I just want to point one thing out I just noticed - since there are no finite printing runs, the amount of supply is directly equal to the demand - the first set will probably see the lowest amount of players, before the game grows into a stable community - sets down the line may end up with double or triple the total sales due to the playerbase growing.

If that makes any sense.

So they confirmed they won't quit "printing" sets?

Xenavire
05-21-2013, 06:19 PM
What? I don't see how you got that - I actually meant it seems like they WILL stop.

I just meant there is not finite printing while the set is avialable, and the minute it is taken off the virtual shelves, the stock is limited to only what the players already have - if theres no boosters left, it's gone. I know it is not wildly different to real life, but people could buy 10 million of one set and 100 million of another - the amount in circulation is directly proportionate to the amount bought, meaning a random set could technically have a shorter printing run, so to speak.


I hope I made it clearer, 3am is pretty rough when you are trying to make coherent points.

fido_one
05-21-2013, 06:33 PM
Well, i dont agree that 1.99 is superior to 2$ packs in the AH because id be willing to put up the extra penny for the low chance at a primal (which will likely be .5-1% chance) With primals in play i dont the the AH will ever have packs above $1.70. 30 cents is at least the price id pay extra for the gamble on a primal :D

Didn't think of that, that's a damn good point.

Tyrfang
05-21-2013, 06:39 PM
All this said, nothing stops Cryptozoic from inflating the price of boosters by purchasing them directly from players in exchange for stuff like promo cards, crafting material, tickets, etc., if the glut is too extreme.

loserwithaplan
05-21-2013, 06:41 PM
Also if the game really kicks off after the amount of sets grow. The original cards while bloated now could be a small amount compared to what is out there for the new set

juggernaut
05-21-2013, 07:28 PM
I think this discussion about about a glut of Set #1 Boosters should be broken out a bit more to try to predict how the marketplace is going to react (Hint: It wont be pretty for those looking to sell packs near MSRP, at least early on)

Here's how I see the beta opening as it happens.
1) Beta release. No one has any platinum, KS backers receive their packs - however many there end up being, lets call it 1M
2) As such, platinum is very valuable and likely only used to buy singles (very expensive if not a KS exclusive, Lotus Garden excepted). Users all have booster packs, thus they are in huge supply.
3) This drives down pack prices to a very, very low point upon release. Pack prices will likely never be lower unless the game crashes.
4) This low point, coupled with the high singles prices, encourages pack opening, boosting pack prices.
4) Pro-Players, GK and above start to use their free weekly drafts, everyone uses their three free drafts. Packs get depressed.
5) At this point, platinum is entering the system to start to pay for drafts. If we assume drafts will produce 12 packs (8-4, 5-3-2-2 and Swiss) for 8 $1.00 entries, then one pack equilibrium is $0.67 / pack.
6) The second pack equilibrium is a bit more difficult to ascertain, as it depends wholly upon the popularity of constructed and probably worthy of a post by itself. A quick, back-of-the-envelope calculation using MTGO as a guidepost yields the following (loosely based on RTR, GTC & DGM)
a) MSRP: 3.99
b) Approx pack value: 2.50 (source: MTG Salvation threads)
c) Approx MTGPants:MTGO ratio - 1.4 (source: supernova)
d) final HEX pack equilibrium = $0.89 (long-term) -

Obviously, this analysis doesn't take into account the long-term implication of additional players, launch, or anything like the second set. It is simply meant as an exercise to approximate the booster value at and nearly after launch and place an expected value for people considering tier jumping.

Gwaer
05-21-2013, 07:37 PM
It has also been stated that there are currently no plans to ever stop selling boosters of any set. That obviously could change but it was the last thing I heard from Cory on the subject.

Daer
05-21-2013, 07:39 PM
It has also been stated that there are currently no plans to ever stop selling boosters of any set. That obviously could change but it was the last thing I heard from Cory on the subject.

No it hasn't.

Gwaer
05-21-2013, 07:52 PM
No it hasn't.

I remember cory saying specifically that there were no plans to discontinue sets at this time. But I could be mistaken, there are way too many videos and articles that I have read to go back over them all.

Karnegal
05-21-2013, 09:15 PM
I think this discussion about about a glut of Set #1 Boosters should be broken out a bit more to try to predict how the marketplace is going to react (Hint: It wont be pretty for those looking to sell packs near MSRP, at least early on)

Here's how I see the beta opening as it happens.
1) Beta release. No one has any platinum, KS backers receive their packs - however many there end up being, lets call it 1M
2) As such, platinum is very valuable and likely only used to buy singles (very expensive if not a KS exclusive, Lotus Garden excepted). Users all have booster packs, thus they are in huge supply.
3) This drives down pack prices to a very, very low point upon release. Pack prices will likely never be lower unless the game crashes.
4) This low point, coupled with the high singles prices, encourages pack opening, boosting pack prices.
4) Pro-Players, GK and above start to use their free weekly drafts, everyone uses their three free drafts. Packs get depressed.
5) At this point, platinum is entering the system to start to pay for drafts. If we assume drafts will produce 12 packs (8-4, 5-3-2-2 and Swiss) for 8 $1.00 entries, then one pack equilibrium is $0.67 / pack.
6) The second pack equilibrium is a bit more difficult to ascertain, as it depends wholly upon the popularity of constructed and probably worthy of a post by itself. A quick, back-of-the-envelope calculation using MTGO as a guidepost yields the following (loosely based on RTR, GTC & DGM)
a) MSRP: 3.99
b) Approx pack value: 2.50 (source: MTG Salvation threads)
c) Approx MTGPants:MTGO ratio - 1.4 (source: supernova)
d) final HEX pack equilibrium = $0.89 (long-term) -

Obviously, this analysis doesn't take into account the long-term implication of additional players, launch, or anything like the second set. It is simply meant as an exercise to approximate the booster value at and nearly after launch and place an expected value for people considering tier jumping.

There's a bad assumption in here. You can't have really low cost packs and high cost singles. Singles markets correct for that. If singles are expensive the average value of a rare/legendary rises. When that gets over the cost of packs, it's better to just bust packs. The only time that you have positive EV om busting packs is when supply is short (Magic the Gathering right after Return to Ravnica released for instance.) Even then prices will quickly adjust. In a digital TCG there aren't limits or waves to print runs, so you can always just buy more packs at MSRP.

yovalord
05-21-2013, 09:25 PM
I remember cory saying specifically that there were no plans to discontinue sets at this time. But I could be mistaken, there are way too many videos and articles that I have read to go back over them all.

I actually believe i read the exact opposite, but i dont remember where either lol...

Grissnap
05-21-2013, 09:37 PM
I believe Cory did say they were unsure if they were going to discontinue or not, but then in other areas they implied that the first set of cards would have future value on the AH after other sets came out, so... who knows?

yovalord
05-21-2013, 09:56 PM
I believe Cory did say they were unsure if they were going to discontinue or not, but then in other areas they implied that the first set of cards would have future value on the AH after other sets came out, so... who knows?

Yeah, i think thats how i read it, at one point they said they were unsure, and then at another point they implied sets would stop being printed as new ones came out.

AstronauticFrog
05-21-2013, 10:35 PM
From the FAQ thread in this forum:
Q: Will Set 1 boosters will get out of the store at some point? Like after Set 4, Set 1 is no longer available and thus make Set 1 boosters much more valuable for trading?
A: We don't know if we're going to make sets go 'out of print' yet or not; we plan to collect feedback from the players in that respect. Our goal is always to create the best experience for the players possible, and our decisions are always driven in that direction.

Of course, they may have said something new since then.

Also, even if the lowest denomination of Plat is 1$, that won't stop AH bots from tracking player accounts with them in fractions. On MTGO, the de facto currency of Event Tickets are each worth 1$, but the plethora of bots will sell and buy cards in sometimes up to 3 decimal places (e.g. a booster for 3.737 tickets). Any good bot will be able to save the remainder after a trade for the next time you trade with that bot. Its more of a challenge when trading with humans, but certainly manageable.

Karnegal
05-21-2013, 10:43 PM
From the FAQ thread in this forum:
Q: Will Set 1 boosters will get out of the store at some point? Like after Set 4, Set 1 is no longer available and thus make Set 1 boosters much more valuable for trading?
A: We don't know if we're going to make sets go 'out of print' yet or not; we plan to collect feedback from the players in that respect. Our goal is always to create the best experience for the players possible, and our decisions are always driven in that direction.

Of course, they may have said something new since then.

Also, even if the lowest denomination of Plat is 1$, that won't stop AH bots from tracking player accounts with them in fractions. On MTGO, the de facto currency of Event Tickets are each worth 1$, but the plethora of bots will sell and buy cards in sometimes up to 3 decimal places (e.g. a booster for 3.737 tickets). Any good bot will be able to save the remainder after a trade for the next time you trade with that bot. Its more of a challenge when trading with humans, but certainly manageable.

This is one of the big reasons people hate MTGO. As an individual user, you can't reasonably sell cards. You have to but bot software, keep the account running 24/7 etc. I hope 1 dollar buys 100 plat.

ForgedSol
05-21-2013, 10:51 PM
Yup. If Cryptozoic announces a system remotely similar to MTGO's after they've charged for my kickstarter pledges, I am quitting whether or not I can sell my accounts and the stuff in them. Forget my free drafts, free perks, set 2 boosters. Forget all of it. I'm not dealing with that. It's hard to imagine creating a system that is less appealing without purposefully striving to do so.

Digital_Aether
05-21-2013, 10:56 PM
I entirely expect the AH to be far better than MTGO because of plat / gold, instead of just tickets. There's no way they'd make plat a large increment, as people are going to want to be able to sell commons for a dime or quarter's worth. Now there may be tribulations trying to cash plat out using third parties, but that's a whole different kind of problem.

funktion
05-22-2013, 12:51 AM
I've seen literally no mention of the lack of set redemptions in this thread. This plays such a huge role in keeping the prices of cards and packs up for MTGO.

For hex there are no set redemptions AND the packs are half the price right off the bat. Prices of singles is going to be so low, and therefore packs will also be lower... The only hope is that events pay out in cash or play instead of packs or that you're at least given an option. While it's going to be incredibly easy to "go infinite" that's not going to translate well into making a profit.

Deathfog
05-22-2013, 12:59 AM
I'm not really seeing how packs are going to dip down to near $1 a pack on the AH unless VIP multi-multi account shenanigans are allowed to go on. Non-primal packs are going to obviously trade for slightly to somewhat less than the base $2 cash or platinum equivalent from Crypto, but a deflationary pressure will be the need to convert card value/platinum back into non-primal packs for use in drafts and other tournaments that require packs to be provided to play in.

I'm assuming they have a plan to prevent endless ghost VIP accounts from devaluing packs.

yovalord
05-22-2013, 02:07 AM
I'm not really seeing how packs are going to dip down to near $1 a pack on the AH unless VIP multi-multi account shenanigans are allowed to go on. Non-primal packs are going to obviously trade for slightly to somewhat less than the base $2 cash or platinum equivalent from Crypto, but a deflationary pressure will be the need to convert card value/platinum back into non-primal packs for use in drafts and other tournaments that require packs to be provided to play in.

I'm assuming they have a plan to prevent endless ghost VIP accounts from devaluing packs.

mm, id assume the primals would go for probably 4-6$ a pack if not more~ general speculation is that they will only be around .5-1% drops

yovalord
05-22-2013, 02:13 AM
From the FAQ thread in this forum:
Q: Will Set 1 boosters will get out of the store at some point? Like after Set 4, Set 1 is no longer available and thus make Set 1 boosters much more valuable for trading?
A: We don't know if we're going to make sets go 'out of print' yet or not; we plan to collect feedback from the players in that respect. Our goal is always to create the best experience for the players possible, and our decisions are always driven in that direction.

Of course, they may have said something new since then.

Also, even if the lowest denomination of Plat is 1$, that won't stop AH bots from tracking player accounts with them in fractions. On MTGO, the de facto currency of Event Tickets are each worth 1$, but the plethora of bots will sell and buy cards in sometimes up to 3 decimal places (e.g. a booster for 3.737 tickets). Any good bot will be able to save the remainder after a trade for the next time you trade with that bot. Its more of a challenge when trading with humans, but certainly manageable.


Q:Are you willing to consider making the boosters redeemed for the expansion of our choice instead of being forced into the first set? Otherwise you will create a massive glut of gen 1 cards, and the bonus boosters won't be worth much to anyone.
A:**I think the opposite true actually. Like any collectible, you can choose to save some of those packs and sell/trade them much later on. The really interesting thing here is that once a certain "series" of boosters is no longer available for purchase. The ability for new users after that time to get older booster packs is contingent on the stockpile that early adopters are sitting on for resale. You aren't going to stumble on any 1st set packs in someone's garage sale in 5-10 years. That is really interesting to me.

From the FaQ

benczi
05-22-2013, 02:15 AM
Yes, set 1 will be flooded.
And with the guild mechanics everyone will have access to everything. So prices for singles will be really low.

Khazrakh
05-22-2013, 02:59 AM
Yes, set 1 will be flooded.
And with the guild mechanics everyone will have access to everything. So prices for singles will be really low.

Sounds like a good thing to me!

EntropyBall
05-22-2013, 03:19 AM
I'm not really seeing how packs are going to dip down to near $1 a pack on the AH unless VIP multi-multi account shenanigans are allowed to go on.

If there are tons of people in the VIP program, the packs will never sell for just over $1, or less. If tons of people are buying the packs for $1, it doesn't seem like many should sell on the AH for much more than that. I think an AH value of $0.90/pack is still optimistic, but that's what I'm pretending the value of my pre-order is worth.

WSzaboPeter
05-22-2013, 03:49 AM
What do you guys think boosters will cost in the AH (retail will be 2$)
I think booster will not be sell-able on the AH. Why would they allow something that decreases their profit without adding any benefit to the players, other than a few cents. Even if they would allow it, I think 10 booters for $18, or 1 for $1.9 is something that we might see. I will get 310 boosters (based on my current pledge level rewards), but I would not sell any. I would crack open around 250 in the first day in a frenzy, than put every card above playset (playset = 4 of the same card) to AH.


What will single cards be worth? rares/legendaries? Cards from the top constructed decks?
I'm quite sure we will see our Jace, The Mind Sculptor and Tarmogoyf quite soon, but nothing like Power Nine cards (hopefully not as broken, and not as expensive as Jace, TMS). Because of the online nature of the game, I assume within 2 months tops some cards will go into the $25-30 range, but I would be shocked to see a card go for $50+ in the first year of Hex. (Please remind me to get shocked.) On the other hand, especially if they will stop selling boosters from the first set after a while prices could skyrocket.


Are tiers below king even getting a deal?
I think having a guaranteed spot in the beta is great value (I would say it's easily worth $30). Carte Closed beta and the beginning of open beta was my best two months of TCG playing, and the game was not so good. Imagine that with a great game as HEX…
The other rewards are just the icing on the cake at lower tiers.

katkillad
05-22-2013, 03:52 AM
Well boosters are tradeable so... even if they can't be sold on the AH, they can, you could still sell them outside of the game.

Fateanomaly
05-22-2013, 04:09 AM
If packs are 0.90 in the AH, then there will be no reason to get the VIP though.

benczi
05-22-2013, 04:11 AM
I think booster will not be sell-able on the AH. Why would they allow something that decreases their profit without adding any benefit to the players, other than a few cents. Even if they would allow it, I think 10 booters for $18, or 1 for $1.9 is something that we might see. I will get 310 boosters (based on my current pledge level rewards), but I would not sell any. I would crack open around 250 in the first day in a frenzy, than put every card above playset (playset = 4 of the same card) to AH.


I'm quite sure we will see our Jace, The Mind Sculptor and Tarmogoyf quite soon, but nothing like Power Nine cards (hopefully not as broken, and not as expensive as Jace, TMS). Because of the online nature of the game, I assume within 2 months tops some cards will go into the $25-30 range, but I would be shocked to see a card go for $50+ in the first year of Hex. (Please remind me to get shocked.) On the other hand, especially if they will stop selling boosters from the first set after a while prices could skyrocket.


I think having a guaranteed spot in the beta is great value (I would say it's easily worth $30). Carte Closed beta and the beginning of open beta was my best two months of TCG playing, and the game was not so good. Imagine that with a great game as HEX…
The other rewards are just the icing on the cake at lower tiers.


$25-$30??? :))))))) that's a good one :)))))). If any single card goes above $10-$15 in the first year, I will be shocked.

djlowballer
05-22-2013, 05:22 AM
VIP is only 1 pack per week. A draft requires 3. The VIP will drive the average cost of a booster down but it should stay above 1.50 on the open market.

Hieronymous
05-22-2013, 06:17 AM
This is all kind of speculative because we don't know how many people will be playing with free accounts or limited budgets and how many of those people might be willing to buy specific cards on the in-game AH vs. gambling on booster packs. Of course it looks like a flood now; all we know about are the people willing to spend large sums of money gambling on boosters, and boosters are going to have a relatively bad rate of return, generating lots of cards. But if there are (for example) 100 or 1000 new players in beta for every Kickstarter backer now, all of whom want to buy cards, then that could shift the market upwards. We'll see.

The numbers we're seeing now are going to show a slight glut overall just because King level and up get so many cards that it's probably in excess of what any one person will need to play the game, at least initially. But lots of folks are presumably going to start with that one starter pack and want more. All depends.

benczi
05-22-2013, 06:26 AM
Well, we can assume, that for the beta at least the number of users will be limited. After that it's not too far of a stretch to compare it with another well known tcg that celebrates it's 20th birthday this year, compare the prices of their online products and the prices from their market place and divide it by 2(since buying products in Hex will be 2x cheaper), and then add to that that that game has already 20 years of loyal customers, and hex will not see a lot of players in the first few years, and then add to that that there will be guilds in hex with shared card pool, and shared decks, so casual players will not buy those cards/boosters from the marketplace, so yea, as the comment in the faq said, expect these cards to have some value in 10 years, but not sooner.

edit: there is this 1 really weird card: Spectral Lotus Garden - if spectral lotus were to be pvp the demand for it would be huge, but like this it really depends on how pve will be, and we have close to 0 info on that (like how many players would be willing to invest to make their pve decks somewhat better).

WizBang
05-22-2013, 06:43 AM
it really depends on how pve will be, and we have close to 0 info on that (like how many players would be willing to invest to make their pve decks somewhat better).

Like so many things right now, PvE is the wildcard in the set 1 value formula. Once set 1 fades "out of block," we have a pretty good idea how the PvP crowd will value it. However, unless PvE has some sort of block system, those cards may still be highly valued by PvE players, especially new ones.

As each set goes out, it might be a timing thing to decide when to put specific cards on the AH so as to avoid the rush.

freudinio
05-22-2013, 06:45 AM
I do feel like I am getting flooded with boosters, at Grand King.

150 Initial Boosters - 90 Boosters from Guildmaster that I can gift myself - 5 Stretchgoal Boosters - 1 Primal Pack - 50 set 2 Boosters.

Good value though. Will end up drafting most of these. ;).

jai151
05-22-2013, 06:47 AM
Like so many things right now, PvE is the wildcard in the set 1 value formula. Once set 1 fades "out of block," we have a pretty good idea how the PvP crowd will value it. However, unless PvE has some sort of block system, those cards may still be highly valued by PvE players, especially new ones.

As each set goes out, it might be a timing thing to decide when to put specific cards on the AH so as to avoid the rush.

Has Crypto actually commented on whether PvE cards will even follow a block release?

I mean, since they are earned through PvE play, suddenly replacing all the rewards would be a bit strange. Now, if there's a PvE "pack" system, purchasable with gold, that's a completely different matter, but I didn't think that was the case.

Hieronymous
05-22-2013, 06:50 AM
Well, we can assume, that for the beta at least the number of users will be limited. After that it's not too far of a stretch to compare it with another well known tcg that celebrates it's 20th birthday this year, compare the prices of their online products and the prices from their market place and divide it by 2(since buying products in Hex will be 2x cheaper), and then add to that that that game has already 20 years of loyal customers, and hex will not see a lot of players in the first few years, and then add to that that there will be guilds in hex with shared card pool, and shared decks, so casual players will not buy those cards/boosters from the marketplace, so yea, as the comment in the faq said, expect these cards to have some value in 10 years, but not sooner.

edit: there is this 1 really weird card: Spectral Lotus Garden - if spectral lotus were to be pvp the demand for it would be huge, but like this it really depends on how pve will be, and we have close to 0 info on that (like how many players would be willing to invest to make their pve decks somewhat better).

That's all decent logic but there are problems with it, too.

1) This game isn't coming out in the same environment Magic did; TCG's are a big established business now. Theoretically Hex could gain hundreds of thousands of subscribers in its first year, as everyone who currently plays Magic Online tries it and makes a switch. Of course that's a theoretical extreme but it's at least reasonably possible. So we can't validly extrapolate from Magic's growth curve.

2) Magic prices are determined by established, limited print runs (i.e., 500 million cards of set X). It appears from what we know so far that Hex won't have that, so that at least initially, there shouldn't be either huge gluts or huge shortages, at least not of the really rare cards -- people will buy as many packs as they want and no more. Prices should therefore stay "reasonable" -- we shouldn't see crazy expensive cards, but good cards should always remain a little pricey. Of course, this has a few caveats also:

a) There probably will be a glut at least in the short term of uncommon cards and less "popular" rares, both because of all the kickstarter packs, and because people will buy lots of packs trying to get that awesome dragon or whatnot.

b) Drafting may increase the # of packs people buy and also inflate the supply of rares and uncommons, driving down the price a little. Depends on how many people are buying into drafting tourneys.

3) The guild bank rules kinda throw a wrench into things. I could see the formation of mega-guilds with hundreds or thousands of members (in fact such is almost a certainty given what's happened in other games like Eve Online, etc.) If the guild banks allow infinite card sharing -- i.e., I get four fancy dragons, put them in my guild bank, all my guild members can use that card in all of their decks at once -- then card prices will crater into nothing. If it's more limited then it won't. We don't really know enough details yet.

4) They have made some comments that there will be time limits on some sets or that they may eventually stop printing the first set. If they do then prices on any exclusive cards or out of print cards should go up dramatically, presuming the user base for the game is growing.

Fireblast
05-22-2013, 06:52 AM
The flood really depends on the number of players in release.
I don't think 50 boosters per player is a flood.
In MtG most players buy 36 boosters and single + weekly draft
- The singles they buy come from shops that open boosters by the case so there are alot of boosters opened!

The issue of the flood is more with Primal, as they equal 15 boosters (considering commons and uncommons are only worth giving/selling for gold to PvErs)

~

caffn8d
05-22-2013, 06:59 AM
They've mentioned that the shared "virtual" card pool for the Guild Bank stuff is for use only when players are playing other members of their guild. Think of it as a testing pool. Now, there may be a separate bank that you can actually put items/cards into and take them back out of, but those would be usable by only one person at a time.

jai151
05-22-2013, 07:05 AM
3) The guild bank rules kinda throw a wrench into things. I could see the formation of mega-guilds with hundreds or thousands of members (in fact such is almost a certainty given what's happened in other games like Eve Online, etc.) If the guild banks allow infinite card sharing -- i.e., I get four fancy dragons, put them in my guild bank, all my guild members can use that card in all of their decks at once -- then card prices will crater into nothing. If it's more limited then it won't. We don't really know enough details yet.

There has been mention of a "check out" system in the guild article. I would take that to mean ownership of the card never changes and only one member may use it at a time outside of in guild testing.

Hieronymous
05-22-2013, 07:12 AM
Thanks for the added info on the guild banks. My real concern is "what happens if I've left half my cards in the guild bank and then someone drama queens and kicks me out of the guild, do I get my cards back." Or, for that matter, someone checks out a bunch of rares then ditches guild.

Staying on topic, though, with those changes it seems like it would only have minimal impact on card values.

Daer
05-22-2013, 07:19 AM
The guilds banks only hold decks of cards, they haven't mentioned being able to share cards in the guild banks.

Karnegal
05-22-2013, 07:21 AM
They've mentioned that the shared "virtual" card pool for the Guild Bank stuff is for use only when players are playing other members of their guild. Think of it as a testing pool. Now, there may be a separate bank that you can actually put items/cards into and take them back out of, but those would be usable by only one person at a time.

This was also my impression. It's like when you proxy decks to test with your friends. You can play with them as much as you want, but if you go to a tournament you need real copies of the cards. It's a nice try before you buy feature, but it doesn't actually reduce the value of cards.

jai151
05-22-2013, 07:28 AM
Thanks for the added info on the guild banks. My real concern is "what happens if I've left half my cards in the guild bank and then someone drama queens and kicks me out of the guild, do I get my cards back." Or, for that matter, someone checks out a bunch of rares then ditches guild.

Staying on topic, though, with those changes it seems like it would only have minimal impact on card values.

If there is a check out system, you would retain ownership of any cards in the bank, and you'd be able to yank any of them out of the guild bank and back to your pool, even if they were checked out. They'd also follow you, not the guild, if you were booted.

Fireblast
05-22-2013, 07:29 AM
This was also my impression. It's like when you proxy decks to test with your friends. You can play with them as much as you want, but if you go to a tournament you need real copies of the cards. It's a nice try before you buy feature, but it doesn't actually reduce the value of cards.

Actually it does, since you won't buy cards that you thought would be good for your deck after you've tested them.
Chase rares will keep their value, niche and bad cards will never have any.

~

jai151
05-22-2013, 07:30 AM
Actually it does, since you won't buy cards that you thought would be good for your deck after you've tested them.
Chase rares will keep their value, niche and bad cards will never have any.

~

On the other hand, you WILL buy cards that test well, meaning the niche cards will have value. Bad cards, well, there shouldn't be any of those =P

Karnegal
05-22-2013, 07:33 AM
Actually it does, since you won't buy cards that you thought would be good for your deck after you've tested them.
Chase rares will keep their value, niche and bad cards will never have any.

~

I think the net effect encourages people people to buy cards for successful decks. Some people aren't going to pull the gun on $50-100 in cards for a deck they've never played. But, if they get to play test for a week or so, they might commit to it. I think that it will encourage more people to play PvP

MrCwis
05-22-2013, 07:39 AM
I think set one will be flooded for sure. But again I'll compare this to MtG, their Alpha and beta cards weren't mass produced like the new sets and some are worth thousands, obviously physical vs virtual plays a part here. But if Hex takes off in a couple years when players can no longer buy set 1, assuming only the most recent set(s) will be sold, then this flood will be a good thing for new players because they can buy set 1 cards in the AH for cheaper then if there were a more limited number of cards around. Again assuming that there will be league akin to mondern and legacy.

Yasi
05-22-2013, 07:43 AM
There will be no real reasons for people to buy the boosters at $1.50 in the AH because of the chance of getting a primal pack from the actual store. It is highly likely that the packs obtained from the kickstarter will go towards drafts. Perhaps when the price drops down to $.75 it'll be more realistic.

MrCwis
05-22-2013, 07:49 AM
We have no idea what the odds of getting a primal pack is yet so it's hard to say what value these will put on booster packs in the AH

Digital_Aether
05-22-2013, 07:51 AM
Yasi, that's not true. If that primal pack chance is 1%, and let's say it's worth 15 decks (matching rare counts, ignoring all the extra common and uncommon), then it's 114 (99 + 15 to replace a primal) AH decks vs 100 direct decks to match value. 100 * $2 = $200 vs 114 * 1.5 = $171. If primals were a 1% chance (I assume it's less than that but that's a different conversation), then the AH price of $1.71 a pack would match the value of getting them from the store. That's assuming that 15 packs worth of commons, uncommons, and loot chests (gold / equipment come in packs) had absolutely no value, and we're only talking about rares.

TL;DR $1.50 for boosters is a better deal than $2 for boosters with a 1% chance of a primal pack, by a good amount (over 15% better deal).

Yasi
05-22-2013, 07:54 AM
@MrCwis, So what? We know for sure primal packs drop rate is not 1/3. Would be laughable if you buy 150 boosters from the kickstarter and get 50 primal packs. I'll go so far as to say it's not even 1/5. It's just not justifiable to buy packs from other users for $1.5 in the AH if primal packs are as good as it seems.

Hieronymous
05-22-2013, 07:56 AM
I would be very surprised if the primal pack rate is anything more than %1.

Yasi
05-22-2013, 08:01 AM
Yasi, that's not true. If that primal pack chance is 1%, and let's say it's worth 15 decks (matching rare counts, ignoring all the extra common and uncommon), then it's 114 (99 + 15 to replace a primal) AH decks vs 100 direct decks to match value. 100 * $2 = $200 vs 114 * 1.5 = $171. If primals were a 1% chance (I assume it's less than that but that's a different conversation), then the AH price of $1.71 a pack would match the value of getting them from the store. That's assuming that 15 packs worth of commons, uncommons, and loot chests (gold / equipment come in packs) had absolutely no value, and we're only talking about rares.

TL;DR $1.50 for boosters is a better deal than $2 for boosters with a 1% chance of a primal pack, by a good amount (over 15% better deal).

I see your point. However, wouldn't people be more inclined to buy boosters to get the primal packs and resell it for more than what they would have saved from buying boosters in the AH?

I think what I'm getting at is...if you buy 10 booster packs and you get a primal pack. Does that mean you'll have the 10 booster packs plus the bonus primal pack? It seems that way from the way they worded the rewards. I reeeeally want to go out on a limb and say the chance of getting a primal pack is at least 10% though.

Digital_Aether
05-22-2013, 08:07 AM
Yasi, the primal pack has a chance to replace your booster, it isn't extra. Also, there is a motivation to buy from the main store and re-sell them for profit on the AH. In that example I did out, assuming a 1% primal pack rate, that's what i mean by "match value" at $1.71. If you were buying lots of boosters, selling the normal ones, and only keeping primals, anything you sell a booster for over $1.71 would be a profit. $1.50 would be a loss though. Also keep in mind, that's assuming a primal pack is worth 15 times as much as a normal booster, which it realistically shouldn't be ( 165 commons, 45 uncommons, and 15 chests would have some value). That pushes the true balance point closer to $2, making it harder to buy and re-sell for profit if you take those cards into account.

Digital_Aether
05-22-2013, 08:13 AM
And as a side note, if primals were a 10% rate, then that means for every $20, you're getting 99 commons, 27 uncommons, and 24 rare / legendary. 11 common * 9 packs, 3 uncommons * 9 packs, 1 rare * 9 packs, + 15 rares * 1 pack. That would be an outrageous ratio of rares to uncommons. I couldn't even imagine that. That would just destroy the value of any rare in the game.

Milamber
05-22-2013, 08:16 AM
Hey, just saw this thread after posting on the "primal" discussion thread.
I think we are confusing have a tonne of cards avail at release with "flooding"
But maybe I've got it wrong?
But Here are my thoughts, love to hear any corrections, agreement or opposing view points.


First in my concideration I don't believe there is a disproportionate flood of the entire set 1.
I'm not saying there isn't a @&#* tonne of cards but lets be rationale, the majority are commons and they will likely see the heavy end of the crafting hammer.
I'm lined up to recieve 300+ boosters. I saw somewhere that an aprox avg per backer was 120 somewhat recently. So lets use that. I'm sure someone can correct me if needed?
Now first starting with rares and legendaries. Concider that you need a play set or 4 of a card if you desire as playable.
If legendary is say 1:8 ratio that means likely @ 120 packs you see 15 legendaries. Your not going to have a playset of jack!
So onto rare 7:8 ratio, thats 105. Lets say by a miracle you recieve no more than 4 of a single rare you now have 26 rare playsets! dont know how many rares are in set 1 but I'd speculate at least double that of 50+
So fear that a healthy primal drop rate will bring the roof down is just not relivent in my mind, within this outlook.
Ok so...
I doubt as a one time investment ill ever have the experience or card geek joy of having this many packs again in a hit!
If the primal rate is .5 - 1% then there's a good chance ill recieve <2 possibly even 0 primals. Because there is no distrobution to make sure I do get 1:100 or if .5% 1:200 its individually calculated!
Now that is an aweful kick in the teeth!!
Seriously, really think about it. It's truly depressing if the drop rate is that low and that's with 300 packs!
At 300 packs this is my time to shine for the once off experience that it truly is.
That ratio gets worse for those that couldn't afford that level of buy in but still made a substantial buyin of $120 or $250.
Personally I don't know what the objective CZE had in introducing primals but I'm sure it was an awesome idea to further reward us as kickstarters and the player base in general by enhancing that child like magic of pack opening by using the advantages of digital. To give us that cool Easter egg. Surely not to make it so rare that it makes us jaded to hear when some one scores one.
When I here a backer say " so cool man I got 5 primal packs day one, here's some of the phat lootz I got...." I want my reaction to be "man, that's sweet as I got something like that too.... What was your favourite.." Not "@&$# you man, I never win crap:("

Now don't confuse this will a feeling of entitlement or CZE owing us or maximising value!
I pledged what I pledged for my belief, support and hope of the games vision. Chosen based on the rewards offered and in case of GK i admit lol a hope of a really cool escalation benefit on the last stretch as well as my thoughts that we currently under value the PVE content that I'm expecting to be imersive!
Rather I want to see this primal mechanic be that little treat that I'm sure it's intended to be not a frustration.
Anyways that's more than my .02c

Digital_Aether
05-22-2013, 08:29 AM
I do agree that it only appears to be a flood because of the nature of kickstarter, and what kind of crowd is going to get in early. If the game grows at a good rate, it will quickly disperse, and though it might be an inflated amount for the beginning of the game, if sets ever go out then it could quickly find itself being a small set of cards to future players.

Like the math I just did out before, the primal rate has to be low otherwise rares will be just as common as the uncommon cards are. .5 - 2% are all reasonable numbers, and I'm thinking the .5% is probably more like it. They said with 150 boosters you "might get lucky and get a primal" in the free boosters. If it was a 5% rate, at 150 boosters, it wouldn't be lucky. It would be 1 in 20, and you'd expect to have 7 bonus primal packs on every king+. 209 commons, 57 uncommons, 34 rares in 20 packs. That's a 2:3 ratio between rares and uncommons. Those rares would have been severely devalued. Don't ask them to ruin card rarities just because you aren't lucky :P

It's purpose is to help capture that moment of excitement for people buying boosters, not just people who kickstarted. It should be a big deal, other games call the god packs and everything. At .5%, getting one would would result in celebratory expletives and a hugely anticipated slow-opening of the pack to savor the moment.

Karnegal
05-22-2013, 09:49 AM
@MrCwis, So what? We know for sure primal packs drop rate is not 1/3. Would be laughable if you buy 150 boosters from the kickstarter and get 50 primal packs. I'll go so far as to say it's not even 1/5. It's just not justifiable to buy packs from other users for $1.5 in the AH if primal packs are as good as it seems.

Read the above posts again, you aren't understanding the math.

WizBang
05-22-2013, 09:54 AM
Has Crypto actually commented on whether PvE cards will even follow a block release?

I mean, since they are earned through PvE play, suddenly replacing all the rewards would be a bit strange. Now, if there's a PvE "pack" system, purchasable with gold, that's a completely different matter, but I didn't think that was the case.

I don't think the PvE cards will, but PvP cards are legal in PvE. Therefore, they are desired by both PvE and PvP players. But I don't think the valure for PvE players will go down by "block" as they will with PvP players.

Milamber
05-22-2013, 10:06 AM
If it was a 5% rate, at 150 boosters, it wouldn't be lucky. It would be 1 in 20, and you'd expect to have 7 bonus primal packs on every king+.
Yea good clarification that would seem to be high,
I still think even 1% is to close to an unyielding benefit though.
One if my consideration is its impact in released game play.
If there's a fairly good chance of 0 in 150. What possible chance is there of a casual player that PVE's and does maybe a couple if drafts a month as fun way to increase his card pool ever seeing it proc?
I think that 1% would make the mechanic like willy wonkers golden ticket, not a reward/treat value that's accessible yet not common.
That may be what CZE intends I don't know... But I'd look at its implementation that I'd want even that casual player to be really unlucky not to see 1 over a year of dedicated play.

In current terms of distribution model (not corporate opportunity) I think a box of MTG is 36 boosters from memory, if they weren't as lizard monkey about milking the cash cow, and they implemented such a thing then it would be reasonable to say if not 1 per box then at least 1 per 2 boxes and if not definitely 3? A comparison with a lot of disparity I know my example of the casual player is more core to my thoughts.

Digital_Aether
05-22-2013, 10:10 AM
1 per 2 boxes would be a 1.4% chance. 1 per 3 would be a .93% chance. That's exactly where a 1% chance of a primal would put you, right in that range.

Milamber
05-22-2013, 10:17 AM
I don't think the PvE cards will, but PvP cards are legal in PvE. Therefore, they are desired by both PvE and PvP players. But I don't think the valure for PvE players will go down by "block" as they will with PvP players.

Wow, hadn't even considered this. I wonder how they will address the long term raising curve of difficulty if new content needs to be providing increased improvement/incentive for gear...

Hmmm bodes well for lore, because it may mean that new content actually follows new mechanic themes rather than escalating power levels!!

There are just soo many ways this game can go and evolve!!
Gee I'd love to get more behind the scenes view of the brain storming these guys do in the longer term. This would be such a rewarding project to be working on! Totally jealous I want a job like this lol

Tyrfang
05-22-2013, 10:22 AM
Because of gear, I suspect that some PvP cards might be more desired in PvE than PvP. For example, Replicator's Gambit has some really strong effects as a PvE card with gear.

Milamber
05-22-2013, 10:28 AM
1 per 2 boxes would be a 1.4% chance. 1 per 3 would be a .93% chance. That's exactly where a 1% chance of a primal would put you, right in that range.

Yea hence I what I meant about not a great comparative.
I wanted to illustrate eliminating the 0% risk within a set purchase my example was going to be box or if not a ratio for case. But I got lazy when I realised I didn't know how many boxes in a case.
I should have left it out
It detracts from my point about casual joe

But would you agree that even say in the 2 box example (distribution deviation besides)
For that $148 x2 investment you'd want to see at least 1 and even with only 72 packs its inclusion wouldn't write off the value of other mythical and rares you opened. I mean its not like that god pack is all mythic.

brynsul
05-22-2013, 10:31 AM
I am 99% certain that the crafting system will consume many extra cards.

yovalord
05-22-2013, 08:23 PM
I am 99% certain that the crafting system will consume many extra cards.

It really depends on what crafting materials will be good for. From the sounds of it, they are only good for PvE stuff, and there will be a lot of people who don't care for PvE at all.

Patrigan
05-22-2013, 11:47 PM
Has anyone actually considered how interesting some cards are for PvE players?

For example, take Head Games ( http://hextcg.wikia.com/wiki/Head_Games ). As another post already pointed out, it's really not a great card in PvP. However, I am certain that I will be playing a few copies in my PvE Ruby Deck, while equipping Tendrils of memory. Getting a selective mulligan (keeping the better cards) is so stupidly powerful... It would allow me to set up a combo so easily, that I can blow away some of the dungeons with it.

With that in mind, I expect that bad rares like Head Games might actually still fetch a value for PvE players. Probably not as much as the PvP players will give for their top cards, but hey, it's something...

Patrigan
05-22-2013, 11:49 PM
It really depends on what crafting materials will be good for. From the sounds of it, they are only good for PvE stuff, and there will be a lot of people who don't care for PvE at all.

I think you're wrong here. In fact, I dare say that the majority of this game will be playing PvE. Perhaps not at the start, but one game after launch, the majority will be playing PvE. In fact if the dungeons are challenging enough, I could even see PvP players investing in PvE cards. You know, Challenge and all. I know I will be doing alot of PvE.

thereck
05-23-2013, 12:10 AM
the subscription model reduces the price per pack to $1 or less

thereck
05-23-2013, 12:13 AM
Ie 4 packs + tournament entry = $4 so the four packs can be sold for a net profit at $1, people with extra packs who wish to sell will have to sell below this base point. If packs become > $1 create more subscription accounts and sell each pack for a profit.