View Full Version : Campaign Total Prediction (with math)

05-21-2013, 02:05 PM
All of the most-desired upper tier pledge rewards are now gone, so it's reasonable to assume we're going to have a sharp drop in contribution amount from here on in.

The lowest number of daily pledges so far is 283. If we assume this will be the average going forward, a consistent ratio of contributions, and ignore the higher tiers (that can't be reasonably predicted at this point), we're looking at:

71 kings per day
20 champions per day
40 knights per day
36 captains per day
55 warriors per day
55 squires per day
6 supporter per day

...for a total of $16,985 daily. With a remaining 16 days, ignoring the rest of today yet adding the paypal donations, that brings us to a projected campaign total of $1,432,867.

It's possible that word of mouth will spread and boost the number of new pledges, but I'd also wager that most who have already contributed are done doubling-down and most multi-contributions will now come from completely new backers. It's a fairly conservative projection, but I'd say it's also the most we can safely assume Hex will earn by the end.

05-21-2013, 02:07 PM
That is of course assuming there won't be any new tiers and/or addons to purchase :)

05-21-2013, 02:08 PM
That is of course assuming there won't be any new tiers and/or addons to purchase :)

I think that's the safest assumption of all.

05-21-2013, 02:09 PM
Or the fact that despite breaking the usual rules for how kickstarter funding works there is very likely to be a last day or two boost..

05-21-2013, 02:10 PM
Yes, but there's also likely to be a slump between now and that final rush. Aside for days where something unusual has been going on (impending sell-out of a desirable tier), that's been the pattern. That's why i picked 283 as an average, and not higher or lower.

I personally do believe we'll beak 1.5 million, but I wouldn't bet a significant sum of money on it.

05-21-2013, 02:31 PM
I wouldn't be too unhappy if that was how the rest of the campaign played out, we've already had a day with just 283 new pledges and the numbers are perhaps dipping generally, as I guess is natural in mid-kickstarter. Seems like we've already raised more money than Crypto are sure how to spend, gathering buzz and a large community might be just as important now as raw cash

05-21-2013, 02:35 PM
I'm also of the opinion that, with the end of the good value high money tiers we'll start seeing a significant slump (especially with the end of the stretch goals). There will probably be a rise in the final 3-4 days as per most campaigns. I would feel comfortable projecting less than 2 mil probably 1.4-1.7 mil.

This all changes if they improve the lackluster $250 tiers because that opens up a whole new set of options for king upgrades. They could also improve numbers if the final tier is an incremental reward (every X dollars we'll do X) like the infinite dungeon in the project eternity KS.

05-21-2013, 02:46 PM
I have a few problems with assuming a constant ratio of distributions. If new players come to the game that would like to pledge PRO/GK but are unable to they will more than likely settle on king rather than the lower so I would expect its relative backers to increase over the smaller tiers (although I see why you didn't account for this as it would be very hard to impossible). As well the other 250 should see some sort of bump if and when they show of more PVE which I believe they will.

Overall good work. So psyched this kickstarter is blowing away expectations, this game looks amazing. Can't wait to play.

05-21-2013, 03:02 PM
At this point money certainly isn't a problem, I hope word of mouth keeps going and some casual fans jump on board to grow the player base. All of the "lesser" $20-$120 tiers are very good value and they're unlimited. If the number of backers doubled and they only took Squire to King tiers it'd "only" be another $300,000 or so but I'd be ecstatic :D.

05-21-2013, 04:18 PM
By the end of the campaign I'll either be adding another King to my pledge, or upgrading to Guildmaster or Dungeon Crawler. Still a little on the fence about it.

I think even with GK out we'll still see a steady increase of donations, eventually ending up at around 1.75M

05-21-2013, 06:19 PM
to be honest i think 1.5~ may be under estimating, this could be special case due to the style of investment, but generally video games have a huge last 48h. Sometimes getting half again what they already had. We are at 1.1 now and although i imagine after the last stretch boost wears off things will slow significantly I think that we will likely be at 1.3ish before last 48h.

so even 1/4 again would jump that to 1.6.... but who knows ^_^ digital TCG is probably nicher than a normal game so this campain could be somewhat front loaded.

At any rate i'd be surprised if we don't break 1.5, and if that last stretch goal is something pretty good i'm kinda expecting it to be set at a 1.5. The red border makes me think boss stretch goal!

05-21-2013, 06:52 PM
I think the biggest risk for prediction is people lowering or changing pledges at the last minute. Its easy to pledge high in the rush of the moment but I see a significant number of backers downsizing when they realize exactly how much they are about to be charged. Hex already has a very high average pledge so this will really mess up the final numbers.

05-22-2013, 02:30 PM
Well, Crypto just blew this projection out of the water with today's update. Looks like the best we can do now is wait and see. =P

05-22-2013, 02:34 PM

05-22-2013, 02:35 PM
I think a lot of people "optioned" the Great King and Pro Player tiers, seeing if any of the other tiers would improve. I expect a slower trickle of pledges from now on.

05-22-2013, 02:43 PM

Yeah, until the announcement, today looked like it was following the projected pattern fairly closely. That's done with, now. And I expect newcomers have more reason to pledge above King now that the other $250 tiers are more visibly worthwhile.

We'll never have another Pro-sellout or GK-sellout day again, but I expect a stronger finish than I initially thought. And I'd put money on hitting $1.5m now.

05-22-2013, 02:49 PM
I'm really thinking that it will hit right about 2M. We shall see!

05-22-2013, 02:52 PM
honestly 1.55 is where i think it will hit.