View Full Version : How many booster packs do you think will take to complete a playset?

MugenMusou

05-22-2013, 10:44 PM

So there are 350 PvP cards in the first set. It really depends on how many legendary or rares in the set. But how much do you think we need to spend to get the complete play set? For Set.1 and future? Magic Online typically costs $400 for complete set.

Malicus

05-22-2013, 10:58 PM

Well it takes 94 boosters took get 4x350 cards so if you are'nt trading/buying/selling probably alot but if you do then a reasonable assumption would be about 100 boosters worth so $200. Maybe $250 if you we're unlucky.

Probably less an this for set 1 due to KS booster flood

djlowballer

05-22-2013, 11:02 PM

Too many, just buy what you are missing.

ForgedSol

05-22-2013, 11:05 PM

Well it takes 94 boosters took get 4x350 cards so if you are'nt trading/buying/selling probably alot but if you do then a reasonable assumption would be about 100 boosters worth so $200. Maybe $250 if you we're unlucky.

Probably less an this for set 1 due to KS booster flood

Whoa, that math is off. You don't factor it by number of cards, it's based on how hard it is to get 4 copies of the rarest rarity. And that'll only give you an average, not counting the wide fluctuations. It's going to take far more than 94 boosters. Far more than 300 boosters. The exact number we can't say without knowing the how many legendary cards there are and how often they appear in packs.

Edit: Wait... are you talking playset? as in 4 of? Or just a complete set. 1 of every card? $400 sounds too low for a playset of Magic.

kevalvaine

05-22-2013, 11:19 PM

94 is waaaaaay to low.

Let's make some calculations:

350 cards in PvP set - based on rarity distribution in WoW TCG let's assume:

110 Common

110 Uncommon

110 Rare

20 Legendary

In booster pack there is 11C,3U,1R/L.

Again based on WoW TCG - Legendary replaces Rare in 1:11 boosters.

So after opening around 900 boosters you should have average of:

4 of each Legendary

8.5 of each rare

a bazillion of C and U.

Take into account that those are average values and most likely you will not get equal distribution of every Legendary, more accurate value would be something around 1200 boosters.

Now if there are more Legendaries in the set or those are more rare (ex. 1:15 boosters) playset of each could require opening even more than 2000 boosters.

Filena

05-22-2013, 11:30 PM

I do hope they will be a little more generous then the usual 1:11 ^^ or hope like some game add pack like buy X booster get 1 legendary guaranted, but its just a wish, nothing wrong if not in at all :)

94 is waaaaaay to low.

Let's make some calculations:

350 cards in PvP set - based on rarity distribution in WoW TCG let's assume:

110 Common

110 Uncommon

110 Rare

20 Legendary

In booster pack there is 11C,3U,1R/L.

Again based on WoW TCG - Legendary replaces Rare in 1:11 boosters.

So after opening around 900 boosters you should have average of:

4 of each Legendary

8.4 of each rare

a bazillion of C and U.

Take into account that those are average values and most likely you will not get equal distribution of every Legendary, more accurate value would be something around 1200 boosters.

Now if there are more Legendaries in the set or those are more rare (ex. 1:15 boosters) playset of each could require opening even more than 2000 boosters.

A primal pack is 1/10, so the numbers will be a little lower.

Malicus

05-23-2013, 12:05 AM

I was specifying 94 as the starting point I figured that was clear. My math of strictly booster was spotty though since my answer was "a lot".

I also must concede I haven't played tcg in some time but figured rares were a proportionally smaller part of a set than others appear to be saying. Guess I learnt something.

4acrossisemu

05-23-2013, 01:18 AM

well we just buy them i guess. :)

Digital_Aether

05-23-2013, 04:03 AM

A primal pack is 1/10, so the numbers will be a little lower.

They've never said or implied how often they're going to do primal packs, other than to say that you 'might be lucky' and get primal packs in the KS boosters. There's absolutely no way that they're going to do a 10% drop on primal packs. When you do out the math, that would make rares have the same rarity as uncommons. You're talking about kings and up having 15 primal packs + the 1 free one. And here's why they wouldn't do that.

If primals were 1/10, a standard 10 boosters bought:

9 packs * 11 commons = 99 commons, 9 packs * 3 uncommons = 27 uncommons, 9 packs * 1 rare+ = 9 rares, 1 primal pack * 15 rares = 15 rare+, that's 9+15 = 24 rares.

27 uncommons to 24 rares is a horrible ratio, where rares aren't rare at all. It will NOT be a 10% rate. Even a 5% rate of drop would make the final ratio 2:3 between rares and uncommons, which is still an awful rate. At a 2% rate, it's 147 commons to 64, which is a 3:7 ratio (still broken IMO). Without the existence of primals at all, it was 1:3. I would realistically expect primals to be 1% or .5%, which would mean a king could well get one or two, but may not in 150 packs if his luck is moderately poor.

They've never said or implied how often they're going to do primal packs, other than to say that you 'might be lucky' and get primal packs in the KS boosters. There's absolutely no way that they're going to do a 10% drop on primal packs. When you do out the math, that would make rares have the same rarity as uncommons. You're talking about kings and up having 15 primal packs + the 1 free one. And here's why they wouldn't do that.

If primals were 1/10, a standard 10 boosters bought:

9 packs * 11 commons = 99 commons, 9 packs * 3 uncommons = 27 uncommons, 9 packs * 1 rare+ = 9 rares, 1 primal pack * 15 rares = 15 rare+, that's 9+15 = 24 rares.

27 uncommons to 24 rares is a horrible ratio, where rares aren't rare at all. It will NOT be a 10% rate. Even a 5% rate of drop would make the final ratio 2:3 between rares and uncommons, which is still an awful rate. At a 2% rate, it's 147 commons to 64, which is a 3:7 ratio (still broken IMO). Without the existence of primals at all, it was 1:3. I would realistically expect primals to be 1% or .5%, which would mean a king could well get one or two, but may not in 150 packs if his luck is moderately poor.

It's 10%

Simokon

05-23-2013, 06:08 AM

There is no way in hell that primal packs are going to be a 1/10 chance.

kevalvaine

05-23-2013, 06:11 AM

It's 10%

I'm pretty sure that you are wrong. Do you have any source to back up your theory about 10%?

Digital_Aether

05-23-2013, 06:16 AM

It's 10%

Link? I've never heard them officially state the chance, and I find that incredibly hard to believe for reasons I've thoroughly explained.

I'm pretty sure that you are wrong. Do you have any source to back up your theory about 10%?

Does anyone else have any source to back up their fact?

Based on the data that were presented, it is conclusive that it's 10%

Hexmage

05-23-2013, 06:18 AM

Yasi is obviously a Forum troll just ignore him and he might go away.

Digital_Aether

05-23-2013, 06:18 AM

No one else is stating what percent it is. I already did in this thread show how a 10% chance means that rares would be just as common as the uncommon cards, which would defeat the entire concept of having a rare.

No one else is stating what percent it is. I already did in this thread show how a 10% chance means that rares would be just as common as the uncommon cards, which would defeat the entire concept of having a rare.

Yes, but based on the data we have so far it is conclusive that it's 10%.

darkbreaker

05-23-2013, 06:32 AM

Yes, but based on the data we have so far it is conclusive that it's 10%.

Huge green letters of trollerdon. =O

There is no Data so far, tha's the point, it's all speculaion.

Also Yasi IS a troll, not a very successful one either, one shouldn't recognise a Troll for a successfull troll... Fail

There is no Data so far, tha's the point, it's all speculaion.

Also Yasi IS a troll, not a very successful one either, one shouldn't recognise a Troll for a successfull troll... Fail

It's all speculation-say the guy who said it.

MugenMusou

05-23-2013, 08:31 AM

Typically, in the past when I do these calculation I sole focus on the two of the highest rarities especially when there is a way to trade cards. Because essentially if you can complete the highest rarity cards then rest are usually not big deal either you can buy for almost nothing or trade it away for nothing (if you provide couple high rarity cards).

I know it would be expensive, and pretty certain I will give up collector's mentality rather quickly but seeing great game, brand new game, just makes me want to try. My personal sweet spot is $300-$400 per set depending on how often the set is released. Essentially $100/month to complete a set is ideal. The though process is like buying a couple video games per month which provides me 50-100 hours of game time, which TCG can easily provide as well.

HEX has certainly huge unknown factors with rarity distribution, frequency of primal pack which is essentially 15 booster pack worth, and if we even start thinkign PvE then how often they are adding PvE content. If it's also every 3 months, that's like 600+ cards every 3 months...

have the devs said for a fact that a % of our kick starter packs will be primals? i know they said if you buy one you will know before opening it that it is. So when i login after open launch or whenever in beta we get our OFFICIAL packs of my 150 packs i will have like 2 stacks one of normal and one of primals? As to percentage i am figuring 3% tops and likely 1-2% they need to be somewhat rare. They already said you can't get them if you buy them with/for a draft. So 2-3% of normal sales feels about right to me.

jai151

05-26-2013, 09:52 AM

have the devs said for a fact that a % of our kick starter packs will be primals? i know they said if you buy one you will know before opening it that it is. So when i login after open launch or whenever in beta we get our OFFICIAL packs of my 150 packs i will have like 2 stacks one of normal and one of primals? As to percentage i am figuring 3% tops and likely 1-2% they need to be somewhat rare. They already said you can't get them if you buy them with/for a draft. So 2-3% of normal sales feels about right to me.

Your kickstarter packs will be treated as if you had bought them. So yes, they have a chance to be primals. This was confirmed by the devs.

From the FAQ:

Q: From all those booster packs we are getting on the pledge, there are any random chance to get more Primal Boosters once we open them?

A: Yes, the boosters you get from your pledge have a chance of being Primal Packs.

Digital_Aether

05-26-2013, 09:54 AM

They have officially stated that there is a chance for the KS packs, like the 155 from King, to be primal.

DanTheMeek

05-26-2013, 10:22 AM

There's a part of me that is still desperately hoping that the reason cryptozoic has been so tight lipped about the rarity ratios for the first set is because they are genuinely still considering all their options and may ultimately release with a ratio that makes this game far cheaper and more accessible. Unfortunately a larger part of me fears that the reason they're not giving out this information is because they do indeed plan to have ratios like WoWtcg and are afraid that if, upon giving confirmation of that, people do the math as has been done in this topic, they will see that (again, as has been shown in this topic) even those of us that have backed at extremely high amounts and will be receiving hundreds of packs are still unlikely to get all the playsets we want from our packs.

Personally, if it is the former, I'd REALLLLY like an official post confirming that to be the case, that this is still just something thats not finalized, and better yet, that wherever the ratios end up, they do intend to have better ratios then WoWtcg had. I would certainly greatly reduce some of my own worry and concern.

wildcard

06-18-2013, 08:03 PM

For anyone interested in the math behind brute forcing a collection by opening booster packs, it's known as the "coupon collector's problem" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupon_collector%27s_problem) and the answer to the question "how many boosters would I expect to open until I have at least one of each card" is based on the harmonic series (1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4 ...). Ignoring legendaries for a second, say there were 100 rares to collect and you get 1 rare in each booster, then the expected number of packs to open is 100*H(100) where H(100) is the harmonic number of 100; there are calculators out there; 5.1874 in this case) ... so 519 boosters. If there are 101 rares, it goes up to 525 boosters. (That doesn't mean if you've collected 100 of 101 you only need to open 6 more boosters, probability is tricky that way).

Getting back to legendaries, they become the limiting factor in a brute force collection like this. If there are 15 legendaries, and a legendary only shows up in 10% of boosters, you'd expect to buy 500 boosters to collect them all (5*H(5)*10) and you'd expect to have about 50 legendaries in total at that point).

Because of the AH, if you can safely assume that all rares/legendaries are equal in financial value, then you only need to open enough boosters to get the same number of legendaries as there are in the set, and you can then trade off duplicates to finish your collection. In my 15 legendary example with 10% appearance in boosters, that would be 150 boosters expected to have 15 legendaries, then trade off duplicates to complete your 1-each collection. 50 legendaries would be 2,250 boosters to brute force it, or 500 boosters with trading.

Primal packs replacing normal boosters at say a rate of 1%, and maybe including 1 legendary and the rest rares, only changes this calculation very slightly. Buying 100 boosters moves from an expected 10 legendary cards to expecting 11. Until we have actual numbers for "number of legendaries", "odds of a legendary appearing in a booster", and "odds of a pack being primal" we can't say for sure... but with trading, going for 1-each, it could be anywhere from 200-500 boosters I'd guess.

cavench

06-18-2013, 09:38 PM

Whew for a minute there I thought Yasi is back at it.

Niedar

06-18-2013, 09:51 PM

There's a part of me that is still desperately hoping that the reason cryptozoic has been so tight lipped about the rarity ratios for the first set is because they are genuinely still considering all their options and may ultimately release with a ratio that makes this game far cheaper and more accessible. Unfortunately a larger part of me fears that the reason they're not giving out this information is because they do indeed plan to have ratios like WoWtcg and are afraid that if, upon giving confirmation of that, people do the math as has been done in this topic, they will see that (again, as has been shown in this topic) even those of us that have backed at extremely high amounts and will be receiving hundreds of packs are still unlikely to get all the playsets we want from our packs.

Personally, if it is the former, I'd REALLLLY like an official post confirming that to be the case, that this is still just something thats not finalized, and better yet, that wherever the ratios end up, they do intend to have better ratios then WoWtcg had. I would certainly greatly reduce some of my own worry and concern.

Opening booster packs to try and get an entire set is incredibly stupid and more expensive due to the probability of getting exactly the cards you need to complete a set. Really you shouldn't buy boosters at all and instead buy shit off the AH because thats going to be cheaper. Commons are going to be worthless and you are better off buying them in bulk at dirt cheap prices, uncommons are going to be just as worthless and most rares will be a couple cents. That leaves you with a just a couple more expensive rares, that still are going to be incredibly cheap and I doubt will ever be over 10 dollars and likely much cheaper.

A full set will probably cost less than 100 dollars tbh.

lamaros

06-18-2013, 11:01 PM

Yep, you're better off selling your packs and buying cards with that money instead of opening them.

Syeblaze

06-18-2013, 11:06 PM

It seems to me the only reason to really go for broke on boosters is A: the enjoyment of opening a booster (cannot be understated!!!) and B: Drafting. Drafting requires boosters. Whats more, drafting all of your boosters probably increases the chance of being able to snag that legendary you need, though not by much, since most people will snag a legendary if it shows up on a draft, even if it hurts their chances in the rest of the tournament. Depending on the card, it might be able to just outright cover the entry fee. Still, you open 3 packs a draft, and you have the odd chance of getting passed a rare you don't have. It can't hurt outside the tourney fee, which we're expecting to be pretty minimal (like $1.)

GreyGriffin

06-19-2013, 02:11 AM

I think that people are also forgetting treasure chests. Treasure chests can have boosters in them. Theoretically, you could have a treasure chest that spawns a booster which has a booster in the treasure chest. Fringe case, but... do chests have cards?

AstaSyneri

06-19-2013, 05:25 AM

Can we conclude that you really need a bunch of boosters? ;-).

And due to that, that the market is not going to be swamped with cheap boosters, but that they'll be priced somewhere between $1.5 and $1.75 in the AH, if there are many available at all?

As for the best strategy to complete your collection:

Buy a good stock of cards (200 boosters) to give you a good chance to have every rare at least once.

Identify the "power cards" in each set early and compare what you think will be their value.

Buy the undervalued ones on the market, sell your overvalued ones.

Play drafts to get more boosters and/or pick rares that you have identified as really valuable/that you need.

Rinse and repeat until you have your playset.

The problem of course is that you need to be really good at identifying the value of cards and trade well.

The alternative is to buy enough cards to approximately have at least 440 Rares (you likely won't need that many boosters due to Primal packs and spawning boosters). Then trade those excess Rares against those you need.

Obviously this applies to Legendaries respectively.

jai151

06-19-2013, 06:01 AM

I think that people are also forgetting treasure chests. Treasure chests can have boosters in them. Theoretically, you could have a treasure chest that spawns a booster which has a booster in the treasure chest. Fringe case, but... do chests have cards?

90% of this thread was written before treasure chests were even announced.

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