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View Full Version : Alt view about PP ans other tiers - Wrong market sentiment?



Atomzed
05-23-2013, 04:00 AM
There's a lot of fiery discussion about the latest KS rewards to Collector, Dungeon Crawler, Guild master and Raid Leader. I'm not going to contribute to *that* discussion since all the points have been exhausted.*

What I like to add is the possible reason for 1) CZE 'miscalulations' about the value of the $250 tier and 2) why CZE decided to buff the other tiers in that way.

CZE 'miscalculations'
Personally I don't think CZE has miscalculated the value of the tiers. I think they must spend a lot of time crafting the tier rewards. We may be the one under valuing the other tiers instead.*

Collector - the 6 alt art PVP card may only be obtainable from winning tourneys. That would make that 6 cards very valuable. Also, the alt art may be rare and legendary so getting 6 rare/ legendary cards is noting to scoff at.*

DC - getting additional loot can be very valuable. Especially for dungeons that offer a 100% legendary equipment/ card drop, you just increase your yield by double.*

RL - this ability will make it easier to survive encounters. Imagine in a raid of 3, there will be 3 instant saves. For difficult dungeons that gives great drops, RL may be crucial for good raids.*

Guild master - seemingly the worst but it may be the most important factor for guild battles. That 10% exp may result in a constant 1-2 levels higher for your guild mates. That may make all the difference between winning and losing. Also because it affects all guild members, the yield is as high as the number of guild members you have. Don't forget that leveling up cards faster also means that you can sell those levelled up mercenary and heroes to other people. The increase in exp means that your whole guild can profit from selling levelled up cards.*

My point is that we may be the one undervaluing the rewards of the other tiers. We can recognize the value of the PP tier because we can instantly calculate the yield. But there's more uncertainty for the other tiers. And CZE is definitely not going to tell us the details of the PVE aspect because they will have to tweak it before the games go live.*

Reasons for CZE tweak

If CZE cannot reveal the true value of the other tier, the next best way is to use the reward that the players can appreciate, ie the free draft.*

It's no coincidence that they are *telling* people the value of the free drafts. They want people to recognize the additional value and make it the tipping point.*

In my mind it's great business sense. It's already obvious that people value the free drafts. increasing the rewards for the other tiers won't work, because people are already undervaluing the rewards. Giving 2 additional alt PVP art cards will not make it more enticing because people are already undervaluing the cards.*

To sum up, it may be that the market sentiment of the poor value of Collector, RL, DC and GM is wrong. But CZE unable to reveal the details cannot correct the market sentiment. So they have to resort to using the draft as a sweetener as everyone seems to be entice to the free drafts.*

Atomzed
05-23-2013, 04:05 AM
Sorry for all the asterix at the end of each para. I was using a note app to type the draft so the copy and paste may have introduced formatting errors.

Facilier
05-23-2013, 04:05 AM
Well, market sentiment is something that can be addressed in other ways. They could do a video on how the loot system is planned to work, and therefore why 100% more loot is awesome. They could do a video on how amazing the raid rewards are, and why the raid bonus will become such a cool thing down the line.

They didn't have to do it this way at all.

Merir
05-23-2013, 04:07 AM
That's a good point, and it had crossed my mind as well. The only thing that worries me, though, is that if this is indeed true, then the Pro Player tier is without a doubt the very worst 250$ tier after the legendary buffs, until a tipping point that might be multiple years in the future.

As a disclaimer: I'm a PP backer and after sleeping on it, will not be changing my pledge to another tier. I'm happy with it.

Atomzed
05-23-2013, 05:33 AM
Well, market sentiment is something that can be addressed in other ways. They could do a video on how the loot system is planned to work, and therefore why 100% more loot is awesome. They could do a video on how amazing the raid rewards are, and why the raid bonus will become such a cool thing down the line.

They didn't have to do it this way at all.

I partially agree with your opinion. But the problem for those tiers is that the relative value is dependent on the market value of legendary cards and equipments. And the value is dependent on market demand.

How do you determine the value of a legendary, when there's no market now?

In contrast the value of a PP tier is known and fixed. That makes it easier for people to calculate whether it's worth it for them.

Atomzed
05-23-2013, 05:37 AM
That's a good point, and it had crossed my mind as well. The only thing that worries me, though, is that if this is indeed true, then the Pro Player tier is without a doubt the very worst 250$ tier after the legendary buffs, until a tipping point that might be multiple years in the future.

As a disclaimer: I'm a PP backer and after sleeping on it, will not be changing my pledge to another tier. I'm happy with it.

It won't be the worst. Simple because PP is the only tier affecting PVP. The other tiers affect different aspects of PVE, which doesn't have a lot of details now. Unfortunately.

Yasi
05-23-2013, 05:38 AM
Can people stop making long ass posts. All these spec-ulations.

Merir
05-23-2013, 05:41 AM
It won't be the worst. Simple because PP is the only tier affecting PVP. The other tiers affect different aspects of PVE, which doesn't have a lot of details now. Unfortunately.

It will be the worst to begin with, because every 250$ tier has what PP has in addition to their own unique perks. After the one year buff runs out, PP will begin catching up to the other 4 tiers.

MasterN64
05-23-2013, 05:42 AM
The biggest problem with these arguments is that boosters and PVP cards can and will only be obtained through cold hard cash. Loot XP buffs and others can just be grinded for with the exception of the raid leader buff through free PVE. Still that buff will only make raids slightly easier. You can still totally do them without it at all and IMO it would be more fun since you arent "cheating" so to say. I pledged Grand King and will be disabling that option if i can.

Its not a matter of if its more useful or better its a matter of getting something worth real money and something thats not. You cant guarantee someone will buy that legendary set of gloves that dropped from your dungeon crawler bonus but you can pretty much do so with a legendary card from a free booster you got from a draft.

DarkSeverance
05-23-2013, 06:32 AM
It will be the worst to begin with, because every 250$ tier has what PP has in addition to their own unique perks. After the one year buff runs out, PP will begin catching up to the other 4 tiers.The other 250 tiers don't have it. They don't have a Pro Player Only Tournament which potentially has more value considering the PP probably only cares about PvP cards after prizes.

Yasi
05-23-2013, 06:37 AM
The people who are complaining make up a very small portion of the community. It just so happen, though, they tend to be the loudest.

Merir
05-23-2013, 06:38 AM
The other 250 tiers don't have it. They don't have a Pro Player Only Tournament which potentially has more value considering the PP probably only cares about PvP cards after prizes.

Assume, when taking stacking into account, around 800 players take part in the Pro only tournament. The reward for the winner is 4 x every card at release which will be about 4 x 700 = 2800 cards. Assume none of the 800 players have a huge edge over everyone else. Your chance of winning the tournament is 1/800, and your expected amount of cards won is 1/800 * 2800 = 3,5 cards - roughly 1/4th of a booster, or around 50 cents of value.

For me personally, the tournament was a complete non-factor when deciding to go PP. I will add that I'm happy with PP and not going to change my pledge.

thereck
05-23-2013, 06:38 AM
it's very hard to say, even now that double king isn't your best deal
155 season 1 packs + 5 drafts + making a complete set of (x4) of the exclusive pvp+pve cards + a set of crafting materials + $10 + friend gets a beta account full of deck sleeves and new heroes because you didn't merge > 52 drafts+ 10 season 2 packs + most of the bonuses

thereck
05-23-2013, 06:41 AM
collector tier can be quantified: value of a magic legendary wanted for competition is $40 @4 a pack 1:11 legendary ratio. assuming that ratio, max base card value of $120 a year.

DarkSeverance
05-23-2013, 06:42 AM
Assume, when taking stacking into account, around 800 players take part in the Pro only tournament.You are forgetting Grand King, Dragon Lord, Primal, Immortal and Producer also get access to the tournament. There will most likely be quite a few other prizes that haven't been announced as well that makes it worth it. That is just the only announced prize set in stone currently. It'll be fine when all is said and done.

thereck
05-23-2013, 06:43 AM
Assume, when taking stacking into account, around 800 players take part in the Pro only tournament. The reward for the winner is 4 x every card at release which will be about 4 x 700 = 2800 cards. Assume none of the 800 players have a huge edge over everyone else. Your chance of winning the tournament is 1/800, and your expected amount of cards won is 1/800 * 2800 = 3,5 cards - roughly 1/4th of a booster, or around 50 cents of value.

For me personally, the tournament was a complete non-factor when deciding to go PP. I will add that I'm happy with PP and not going to change my pledge.

still a non factor, but every win will probably net a reward

Arbiter
05-23-2013, 06:44 AM
It will be the worst to begin with, because every 250$ tier has what PP has in addition to their own unique perks. After the one year buff runs out, PP will begin catching up to the other 4 tiers.

In the end, if the game only lasts a year, all of the $250 options are equally bad. If the game lasts longer than a year, the pro player account owner is significantly better off, even if he or she only plays six months. This is because they have an account with a flag that says "free draft a week for life". If they cash out they will get a lot more than a player whose account says "100% treasure bonus". Even in that first year, if the pro player decides this isn't the game for them, they should be able to cash out for more than any other $250 option. And the more people CZE bring in, and the more people they get hooked onto buying cards, the more valuable that account will be.

Merir
05-23-2013, 06:49 AM
You are forgetting Grand King, Dragon Lord, Primal, Immortal and Producer also get access to the tournament. There will most likely be quite a few other prizes that haven't been announced as well that makes it worth it. That is just the only announced prize set in stone currently. It'll be fine when all is said and done.

You're right, I completely forgot about the higher tiers. There has been no word of the prize structure of the tournament apart from the Grand Prize. Even in the best case scenario though, it's hard to imagine a reasonable structure where the average payoff for a participant would exceed say, 10 dollars worth of boosters.

thereck
05-23-2013, 06:51 AM
the pvp account already has more value than it costs, but the point would be not to make people buy PP just to resell it. You want to reward people who want to play, rather then force them into an economic situation where the best result comes from account squatting.

houjix
05-23-2013, 06:54 AM
Assume, when taking stacking into account, around 800 players take part in the Pro only tournament. The reward for the winner is 4 x every card at release which will be about 4 x 700 = 2800 cards. Assume none of the 800 players have a huge edge over everyone else. Your chance of winning the tournament is 1/800, and your expected amount of cards won is 1/800 * 2800 = 3,5 cards - roughly 1/4th of a booster, or around 50 cents of value.

For me personally, the tournament was a complete non-factor when deciding to go PP. I will add that I'm happy with PP and not going to change my pledge.

As DS said, GK and above are elligible to particpate as well, but....

In addition:



- Entry into special promotional Kickstarter tournaments. Due to the high number of donations, we will be breaking this up into smaller groups and offering the same prize multiple times, and you will be given the specific group to participate in. Consider this a bonus and reward for your amazing generosity!

Maybe if some people would take time and go back through the updates instead of flying off the handle using incorrect information, we wouldn't be having all this pointless bickering.

thereck
05-23-2013, 06:55 AM
I think rewards of tournaments are generally set so that you recoup their cost at about a 55% win ratio, this one will probably avg net you slightly more than that. if you know how to play MtG, I'm guessing maybe 4-5 packs in value

thereck
05-23-2013, 06:56 AM
Maybe if some people would take time and go back through the updates instead of flying off the handle using incorrect information, we wouldn't be having all this pointless bickering.

he started with the assumption of 800 people groups, this might be a little high but indicates he read this

thereck
05-23-2013, 06:58 AM
Id guess 250 per, I still guess about 5 packs avg net value to an average skilled player

Merir
05-23-2013, 07:04 AM
As DS said, GK and above are elligible to particpate as well, but....

In addition:



Maybe if some people would take time and go back through the updates instead of flying off the handle using incorrect information, we wouldn't be having all this pointless bickering.

Yes, thanks for quoting the update, I didn't remember that at all. Let's assume then, for the sake of argument, they'll have about 1800 total participants, and will play 18 separate tourneys of 100 people each (I consider this an unreasonable assumption, more likely they'd play a total of ten tournaments or less, each with hundreds of players, to avoid completely flooding the market with cards). You can expect to win 1/100 * 2800 = 28 cards, or roughly two boosters, or 4$ of value. And this is what I consider to be unreasonably positive expectation.

When deciding to pledge I didn't even count the Pro tournament among the rewards. No matter how you cut it, it's a non-factor for anyone who has 250$ to drop on a game.

EDIT: When playing so many tournaments with relatively few participants in each one, there's no way to pay out more than top 5%, or top 10% finishers at maximum. Otherwise they would cause a ridiculous flood of cards to enter the market.

houjix
05-23-2013, 07:13 AM
It's really only a flood if the player base never growns much beyond the initial KS Core. If it grows to even 10 times the KS backers, all those cards will be drop in the bucket. And it will probably be a win base payout anyway; win X games, win y packs. Probably don't want to get people started on such a bad foot with tie breakers and such in the very first tournaments.

DarkSeverance
05-23-2013, 07:14 AM
4$ of value. And this is what I consider to be unreasonably positive expectation.

When deciding to pledge I didn't even count the Pro tournament among the rewards. No matter how you cut it, it's a non-factor for anyone who has 250$ to drop on a game.That's the thing... most PP Tier probably discount that tournament. However I know how CZE is and I'm pretty sure this is the most undervalued aspect that many people will be complaining about in the future, that they couldn't participate. Actually there quite a few people, who have dealt with CZE before and have experience with them, who that was a factor. Yes the drafts for life was big value but they want the tournaments. You may not have that experience, which is fine but you are undervaluing it because of it.

You are also only taking the booster value straight across and not considering the secondary market. I know its hard to quantify the secondary market right now but if you look at WoW or MtG the secondary market is where quite a few people make their money.

Ultimately the goal is going to have some real money tournaments and/or tournaments where people would attend in person. There will most likely be an open but there will also probably be a Pro Player only event as well. PP already have an infinite value just because of the Drafts for life but it'll only get better.