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View Full Version : Kickstarter slump information thread!



Gwaer
05-23-2013, 09:55 PM
In this thread we will discuss what is going on with kickstarter and why this is not necessarily the Slumpocolypse!
For starters...What was my original font? this is good enough...

http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/cze/hex-mmo-trading-card-game/#chart-daily This is where future images will be coming from.

http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/cze/hex-mmo-trading-card-game/dailypledges.png

This was our worst day ever in money.

618...wtf is that one up there huge and this one tiny? Whatever... It was also our worst day ever in new backers...

On the bright side!
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/cze/hex-mmo-trading-card-game/dailycomments.png

Best day ever in comments. (they're mostly bitching probably)

some example kickstarters
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/1869987317/wish-i-was-here-1/#chart-daily
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/13861848/camelot-unchained/#chart-daily
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-video-game-console/#chart-daily

If you will notice, all of these follow the normal pattern that most kickstarters follow. There is a reason that this is how they go. Everyone who has been following the project for a long time jumps in early, they proceed to tell their friends who mull it over, people stumble across it in a myriad of different ways, they mull it over. Some of the people in each of these groups go ahead and donate.

Then there is a huge burst at the end of people realizing that time is running out and pulling the trigger.

This is normal expected behavior.


Now! to the meat of the beginnings of this discussion, which you're all more than welcome to contribute to!

This kickstarter did not go that way, here are my reasons why. Not a lot of people were following or even aware of this project when it launched, and it wasn't really given a whole lot of exposure anywhere major, so the beginning was pretty calm and easy. Then exposure ramped up a bit from a few endorsements in the kickstarter community, as well as a comic from penny arcade. At some point people realized what an incredible value a few of the not insignificantly priced tiers were. That was driving pretty constant even sales. Then some idiot (probably Cory) at crypto said "Sure everyone stack rewards, that's great!" At which point the sales numbers were ridiculously artificially inflated as a fire sale began on PP GK and DL.

After that was over and there was not really any major incentive to stack sales dropped off to where they honestly should be anyway at this point in the campaign. The numbers should probably stay low for the rest of the kickstarter, until the last few days. As long as we hit an average of around 23k a day for the rest of the run we should just make the final goal even if for some strange reason we do not have a huge push at the end.

The more troubling thing for me is the fact that we have around 7,000 backers. An unknown number of those people are the same people pledging multiple times on multiple accounts. I'd really like for our backer numbers to increase to an average of 300 a day to make up for that, just to make sure there is plenty of players in the beta. On that note I suggest everyone make their friends spend at least 10 bucks to get hooked in the beta.

In summation, Don't panic when the numbers don't increase. That is expected behavior. They should stay low, until the last 48 hours or so.

*Update!
I've been seeing the primary argument people are making trying to make the legendary goal responsible or the slump is that this kickstarter doesn't follow the normal rules so none of the normal kickstarter logic applies.

The whole point of this thread is to explain how that isn't true. There were 1,000 of both the PP tier and the GK tier the artificial inflation seen in the first two weeks is those tiers selling very fast, but not all at once. Now that they are gone it is expected that the remainder of the kickstarter will be normal, and that is exactly what the numbers are bearing out. The stretch goals are entirely irrelevant. Also, the legendary goal was legendary in scope, and in impact for this community as a whole. Even if your rewards were not legendary it is still an excellent goal for the project.

And finally, there is a lot of complaining that these tiers are sold out and that they should be unlimited. That is patently ridiculous. Crypto has exceeded their goal thrice over, everything else at this point is icing on the cake, and at the rate of the expected contributions for the remainder of this kickstarter they will make their final goal as well, more money is nice... 1.5 million dollars will be plenty to tout to gaming press to generate buzz though.

Ebynfel
05-23-2013, 09:59 PM
As stated, it's nothing too unusual. Though i do thing that with some spotlight shined on the PVE arena, the remaining $250 tiers could be coaxed into going out a lot faster.

TexArcane
05-23-2013, 10:00 PM
slumpogeddon!

Verdant
05-23-2013, 10:04 PM
For now we just need to wait for Monday stream to come live. Combined with some PvE information it can give another boost to PvE tiers which are already receiving some love. Dungeon Crawler can easily be the next PP/GK in terms of spiking KS donations.

Gwaer
05-23-2013, 10:12 PM
For now we just need to wait for Monday stream to come live. Combined with some PvE information it can give another boost to PvE tiers which are already receiving some love. Dungeon Crawler can easily be the next PP/GK in terms of spiking KS donations.

Isn't that monday stream for 2 mondays from now?

Erebus
05-23-2013, 10:12 PM
Sad part is it's not this Monday, but the Monday after (right before the close of the KS, not a bad plan actually).

Hadin
05-23-2013, 10:12 PM
Isn't that monday stream for 2 mondays from now?

I believe so yes.

Gwaer
05-23-2013, 10:15 PM
I'm not gonna lie, I made this page just to be able to link people to it when they start complaining about how much the kickstarter has slowed down and that it is all X fault and crypto just needs to do Y to fix it.

Hibbert
05-23-2013, 10:15 PM
Depending on how fast it goes, there's a decent chance we'll see a similar but smaller run on the Dungeon Crawler tier prior to the end days. Right now it has almost triple the pledges as the next most popular(available) $250 tier, so I think it's safe to say it the one with the most perceived value(again, among the available $250 tiers). I could see it start picking up steam a bit each day, ending with the final 200-300 being sold in a few hours. As you said, the biggest days were results of people scrambling for the last few spots. If this doesn't happen, I'd be still pretty surprised if it manages to last through the final day frenzy.

There's also supposed to be some clarification on the Collector tier in tomorrow's update. There have been some conflicting reports about exactly how many extra cards it will get. I doubt this will cause a run on this tier, but it might boost it up a bit.

Hopefully there will still be some excitement in the Kicktraq data before the final few days :).

Garod
05-23-2013, 11:12 PM
Nice post Gwear.
Completely agree with you that the mid KS slump is a normal phenomena.

Although I do think that the expectation was that now that the re-blanacing of the 250$ tiers has been done that pledging would continue at a higher rate than the slump we are seeing now.

Below some theories on why, again they are my theories and I guess we'll have to see if any of that holds true throughout the rest of the KS. Feel free to disagree since this is just an opinion and in all honesty I don't think anyone can tell you with 100% accuracy why KS's go the way they do. While I think 1 is most likely 2 and 3 may have a minor impact and be contributing factors to the lower number of new pledges of all tiers and also upgrades.

1) People are still waiting to see if Pro, GK, Dragon tiers become available and will only move to a 250$ tier towards the end of the KS. This is due to the number of open slots still in these tiers, so unlike Pro, GK, Dragon there is no perceived "urgency" to get one as of yet since there is still plenty of time to change your mind.
2) The Legendary Stretch Goal didn't inspire people to go for it that much. While tablets support is indeed really nice to have if you look at other KS's who had it as a stretch goal in my experience it has never resulted in a rush or frenzy to get it. Especially since it was on the long term list of things to do for Crypto. This means that there is less additional "perceived" value in reaching the Legendary Stretch goal.
3) And I admit this one is a bit more of a long shot and there's really no way to measure this one. Negativity which happened during the last 2 updates. If you go to a KS and look through the information and comments which many people do, some may have been either scared off or pledged at a much lower tier due to the discussions which went on. If this happened then we should see an incline again once the dust has settled and discussions turn to more positive matters.

Again these are just opinions and can very well be wrong.

I know people keep saying that the slump is due to the fact that you can't stack the 1 year free draft other 250$ tiers but I honestly don't think that's the case. There should be plenty of people who would see that the additional value of the current offer makes sense and upgrade to that tier who aren't necessarily stacking anything and wouldn't have the funds to do so anyhow.

Yasi
05-23-2013, 11:14 PM
tl;dr

I liked the pictures though.

Genocidal
05-23-2013, 11:15 PM
The biggest problems I see are multi-pledgers and lack of tiers in a mid-high price range, which sort of go hand in hand. As you touched on, there are an unknown but not insignificant number of people who are holding multiple of the filled pledges and artificially inflating the backer numbers. Short term, you will have people who want to pledge X dollars who won't be rewarded equal to their pledge amount and end up pledging less or not at all -- I've seen at least one case of this in the Kickstarter comments already and it's safe to assume that for every person who posts with a certain opinion there are at least half a dozen who won't take the time to post.

It's entirely possible Cryptozoic doesn't want to offer any more rewards in this price range that would cut into their long term profits which is understandable but has the potential to stifle early growth of the community.

HecatesLover
05-23-2013, 11:24 PM
I'm one of those Geno. If I could get Pro Player I would. But I can't, I could have gone GK but it was too much for my budget. So I am a King pledge and will stay that way unless they open up more Pro Player packages.

nearlysober
05-23-2013, 11:35 PM
Anyone who has given more than seventeen words to this thread should just quit life now.

Mushroom_C1oud
05-25-2013, 10:36 AM
Thank you Gwaer. Seems like there's a lot of people on this kickstarter that are new to kickstarters. Good to know there's a good place to point people towards.

Talreth
05-25-2013, 10:42 AM
I'm one of those Geno. If I could get Pro Player I would. But I can't, I could have gone GK but it was too much for my budget. So I am a King pledge and will stay that way unless they open up more Pro Player packages.

http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=23857 Gwaer has a nice post on this.

Black_Omega
05-25-2013, 11:01 AM
I think there were a lot of 'early adopters' for Hex through Kickstart. So you saw the major cash injections. As more and more stretch goals became awarded, people in the low level tiers started to upgrade to higher ones. Then there were a lot of people switching between the various $250.00 tier pledges.

You will see a push in the last few days of the campaign. But I think this game saw a lot more 'early adopters' then most would. Had that been the case it would of probably been more equal through the campaign so far.. but you had large injections of cash up front, and now it's averaging out .

If (and do not take this as a complaint as I am happy with my Collector tier) CZE changes the last 4 remaining $250.00 pledge levels to be on par with the Power Player tier I could see the other ones going a lot faster and seeing major bumps.

Keep in mind 1000 Power Players a@ 250.00 a pop is 250,000 right off the hope. Then another 1000 Grand King Tiers at 500$ a pop is another 500,000$. So just between those two tiers you have half of the 1.5 million and those were gone very quickly.

nearlysober
05-25-2013, 11:25 AM
I'm one of those Geno. If I could get Pro Player I would. But I can't, I could have gone GK but it was too much for my budget. So I am a King pledge and will stay that way unless they open up more Pro Player packages.
They've been adamant about not increasing tiers just to make more money.
Could try looking for someone changing their tier but I don't think there is as much movement anymore.

King is a fine value. The other $250 theirs now also give about $700 in boosters do they're nice too of you're even slightly interested in their reward

Hadin
05-25-2013, 11:32 AM
They've been adamant about not increasing tiers just to make more money.
Could try looking for someone changing their tier but I don't think there is as much movement anymore.

King is a fine value. The other $250 theirs now also give about $700 in boosters do they're nice too of you're even slightly interested in their reward

Even though it isn't easy to calculate, I also like to point out that the free drafts for a year will lead to some prize packs as well, so the amount of packs gained could substantially increase.

Boojum
05-25-2013, 12:05 PM
Another factor adding to the slowdown (in addition to legendary goal desirability and normal mid-campaign dropoff) is that for the first time since the stretch goals started, the next goal doesn't feel right around the corner. At $340K above the last goal, it's more than the entire initial funding goal, and more than triple the biggest previous jump. The feeling of having an "almost there" goal that pledges can easily help push the total past is gone.

nearlysober
05-25-2013, 12:19 PM
You actually think new backers are coming to the Kickstarter page, looking at the last stretch goal and making their decision to back based solely on the goal not yet hit?

That's insanely stupid.

Boojum
05-25-2013, 12:49 PM
That was uncalled-for.

Stretch goals function as an additional carrot to encourage more pledges, partially from new backers but even more from upgrades among those who are already following the project. Previously, anyone upgrading could see that they were getting appreciably closer to unlocking or revealing the next goal, that their pledge was part of the push to reach it.

Goals were being unlocked at a rate of 1/day or more. Every day someone checked the project or got the email, they would see that the deal was getting better and better, adding to the sense of excitement and momentum, and making them that much more likely to pledge or upgrade. When the legendary was announced, even if the previous average daily funding had been maintained, it would have taken nearly a week to reach the new goal. Now that the goal is further away, that sense is lost.

And I never said this was the only, or even the largest, factor in the slowdown, just an additional one.

Gwaer
05-25-2013, 01:44 PM
I'm sorry, but the major push that got the stretch goal before the legendary was simply grand king selling the last 200 spots very fast.

Talreth
05-25-2013, 01:46 PM
I wish there was like, a posting slump where everyone with a stupid argument or a point that's already been addressed just stops posting.

Deathfog
05-25-2013, 09:43 PM
Limited tiers are nearly full, not much momentum to get in on these before they close up. DC will probably hit that mark once it hits 500. Added another producer, which is a $10k bump right there. 3 unlimited tiers have crossed 1k, one is at 1100. Enough money is pretty much secured for this Kickstarter, the game will get made.

Chance
05-25-2013, 10:07 PM
the game is funded but theres still quite a few hookers that need motorboating, corys depraved, lewd acts are financially draining

Banquetto
05-25-2013, 11:26 PM
Anyone who has given more than seventeen words to this thread should just quit life now.
Can't get stressed about a "slump" when Hex has already more than quadrupled its funding goal.

(16 words)

Gwaer
05-25-2013, 11:32 PM
(do words in parenthesis not count) I can just edit the OP to be inside them.