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View Full Version : A little worried about the amount of packs floating around...



Keywork
06-01-2013, 09:58 PM
Hey there guys! New King backer here that has a question about set 1 and our kickstarter goals. With my King Tier and the amount of packs that are being given out as stretch goals and the 1 free draft a week it seems that there are going to be an absolute ton of cards floating around. The question i have to ask is dont you guys think that could just gut the revenue from the game before it even gets up and running?

King Tier nets us 150 packs right? We get 5 free packs for the stretch goals and 3 drafts so in total about 8 packs
8x15=120
150x15=2250 cards

Even though set one is huge there are only 350 cards in it*I believe* There is a very slim chance i would think that you wont atleast get 1 or 2 of each card and a TON of duplicates. With this game being a Hybrid of an MMO and TCG it seems that its killing off the Auction House before its set into motion. Cards and packs may become valued at nothing untill set 2 comes out. As a backer it seems a little scary to me. I just had to see if anyone feels hte same way

P.S We also get a Primal pack which means that we get a pack full of rares and legendarys off the bat if you want to count those.

P.P.S Forgot about a free Draft a week, thats a free pack a week to add to the mix

Tyrfang
06-01-2013, 10:01 PM
Most people won't crack open all their packs at once, but even if they do...actually not that many cards in total. Sure King+ might have enough to cover the set, but remember about half the pledges are less than king tier, and then there will be new players as the game goes on.

Here's a thread related to the topic:
http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=24497

Madican
06-01-2013, 10:01 PM
Actually, I think Crypto is banking on gutting the Set 1 cards. Think about it, with so many boosters flying around all the cards from them will be dirt-cheap, thus lowering the barrier of entry to PvP and letting total newbies get a taste of it before Set 2 hits and costs rise. By the time Set 1 is over with they're hoping to have snagged a large amount of new, paying players who are already used to paying for PvP.

It's kind of like the old story of the frog in the pot. Turn up the heat too fast and the frog jumps out. Turn it up slowly and it will get used to it.

Keywork
06-01-2013, 10:08 PM
Most people won't crack open all their packs at once, but even if they do...actually not that many cards in total. Sure King+ might have enough to cover the set, but remember about half the pledges are less than king tier, and then there will be new players as the game goes on.

Here's a thread related to the topic:
http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=24497
True but like you said most players wont crack them open ASAP, they may AH them or trade them away for MISC things. Leaves little room to make any money selling packs if they are all out and cheap as can be.

Actually, I think Crypto is banking on gutting the Set 1 cards. Think about it, with so many boosters flying around all the cards from them will be dirt-cheap, thus lowering the barrier of entry to PvP and letting total newbies get a taste of it before Set 2 hits and costs rise. By the time Set 1 is over with they're hoping to have snagged a large amount of new, paying players who are already used to paying for PvP.

It's kind of like the old story of the frog in the pot. Turn up the heat too fast and the frog jumps out. Turn it up slowly and it will get used to it.
You also have a point, 1.X million that we have all invested is alot but its just something on the back of my mind. I have worked merchandise for so long that it just always seem like financial suicide if you provide something and return little to nothing for a period of time*That being set 2*

Tyrfang
06-01-2013, 10:09 PM
I don't think they mind a flood of set 1 cards, so that PvE players who start off as F2P end up making PvP decks and playing constructed.

EdwardBishop
06-01-2013, 10:09 PM
Ideally there will be far more players join once we go live, than just the backers which shouldn't be our only players... this should increase revenues both for Cryptozoic as well as for we backers and for demand on the Auction House...

Add that to the fact that a 'complete' (deckable) set is actually 4 of each card in the set, that brings demand up more...

As far as duplicates of 'commons', yes, they will likely be 'penny-valued' on the auction house, such as already happens in MtG online... but rares - and especially legendaries - should still by my recogning be well-valued...

As for the drafts... since they're only one a week, they shouldn't effect the market much 'right off the bat', though later they will begin to, yes...

That said, the most valuable cards in any TCG are usually the 'first edition' ones, and even in Digital forms that, once they stop being sold, value will increase... so stockpiles of set 1 now -if the game takes off (and I see no reason why it shouldn't)-, should be demanded by future players that join and aren't able to buy any for themselves directly... and that is the most speculative of my logics, but it has proven true in other cases and I don't see why it wouldn't in hex as well...

Finally, these are only PvP cards... we're getting very few free PvE cards, of which there is a whole other set of about 300 or some odd cards, which are -not- duplicates of the PvP ones... so there should for this first generation at least, be enough of a market there for those...

Edit: I also agree with what the poster beneath me writes, more affordable PvP cards in the beginning will indeed will only serve to enrich the actual gaming experience as more players are able to join and compete...

Verdant
06-01-2013, 10:11 PM
Cheap set1 commons/uncommons/maybe even rares at AH is actually good for new players that will come at beta or at release. They are more likely to build a budget deck with an early dungeon gold and start to enjoy the game faster thus adding to player base. Until set2 kicks in, AH is gonna be a sandbox with large pool of cards everyone can easily choose from.

Come to think of it, we had one box exactly like that in a local MtG club :-)

RElapse
06-01-2013, 10:12 PM
A veteran player will play 3-5 decks on average deck size about 60 cards =300 cards (ish)

cards to swap out and optimize decks =50 cards (ish) as people learn more about game mechanics.

sidedecks?

legendary and rares are not always the best cards, so often you are trading a rare for a play set that works with your deck.

auction house means you can stack "money" for desired cards and horde it if you wish

as an example a typical MTG player will have 3-5 decks and boxes and boxes of common and uncommon, these are traded or just given away to new players. Sometimes cards that people thought were garbage end up being highly sought after. and as new sets come out the availability of set 1 will become scarce so there value will increase, so in a couple years when set one is "out of print" people will desire set one cards....thats where the value is

and remember 2000 cards does not mean a set, but yes it will be a ton of cards, hence the fun in deck creating and discovering synergy between cards and colours!!!

Gridian
06-01-2013, 10:13 PM
Yeah, we're being supplied with an ample amount of cards to start out. I doupt that there will be so many set 1 boosters sold in the next few months, but then again we already bought enough to keep Crypto going until set 2.
As soon as that arrives we'll see how longlived HEX will likely be. I honestly expect us all to storm their shop and crash the servers a couple of times until we all have a good amount of set 2 cards though xD

Tyrfang
06-01-2013, 10:13 PM
There's going to be around 15-20 million Set 1 cards (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=24497). That's a lot for 10k players...but actually not that much.

There's 300 PvP cards, so 4x300 = 1200.
15m cards / 10k players = 1500 cards / player.

That's about a full collection for all the players pledged atm.

Gwaer
06-01-2013, 10:16 PM
Also, there's a crafting system where you destroy cards, and with this many it means that f2p players with gold will definitely be able to buy them. The pve cards will actually be the rare sought after cards of set 1.

Bossett
06-01-2013, 10:19 PM
You're pretty much guaranteed a good selection, but if you have 2500 cards (and half-ish of backers are at a lower-than-king tier) and the set is 350 unique cards - you're not guaranteed to actually get them all (especially the rarer cards).

I reckon a good number of them will go into so-so decks that get given to friends to get them into the game.

DeusPhasmatis
06-01-2013, 10:21 PM
The other thing to remember is that constructed often relies on having play-sets of rares and/or legendaries, and even with the ridiculous number of packs coming in from the Kickstarter, I expect those to still be fairly scarce.

Bossett
06-01-2013, 10:25 PM
I assume though that once you have 4 of any card, there'll never be a need to get more (well, assuming that card doesn't allow 4+ per deck) though - so we may end up seeing a plateau. Especially for resource cards - why would I ever need more than ~30 of each?

Cotton
06-01-2013, 10:28 PM
I assume though that once you have 4 of any card, there'll never be a need to get more (well, assuming that card doesn't allow 4+ per deck) though - so we may end up seeing a plateau. Especially for resource cards - why would I ever need more than ~30 of each?

Resources are unlimited

Niedar
06-01-2013, 10:30 PM
You would keep more than 4 of a card for either speculation or be able to give/lend to friends and still have your own set.

Hibbert
06-01-2013, 10:58 PM
My napkin math shows that if every single booster currently pledged(not including paypal, aside from the sold out tiers) was opened, there would be a bit over 16 million cards. Legendaries and primal packs will throw this off a bit, but of those, about 1 million will be rare. We don't know the exact common/uncommon/rare distribution yet, but if there are 100 rare cards in the initial 350 card set, that means that there would only be about 10,000 of any one particular rare. If that one rare is desired enough for players to want a set of 4, that's only 2,500 potential playsets. Legendary cards are going to be even more rare(hard to say exactly, since we don't know the distribution of rare vs. legendary).

Even considering how much those numbers will grow through the end of the KS campaign, and from all the prize packs, VIP packs, purchased packs and free drafts, that's still not a huge number of rares and legendaries. Especially at the beginning, as people are holding onto packs for future drafting. Also remember that crafting may prove to be a significant "card sink". People might be destroying lots of cards, possibly even rares if they are required for certain recipes.

Things will definitely be wonky a bit as everything shakes out and the number of Hex players grows. It does seem like there will still be plenty of rarity.

Edit: I left out the starter decks and the stretch goal primal packs, so those numbers are just basic boosters. Any rare in a starter deck is going to be significantly more common considering the number of starters flying around and that each one has specific rares in it.

BenRGamer
06-01-2013, 11:29 PM
There's also going to be a fair bit of Set 2 cards given out as well, due to the 1.5m Stretch Goal.

Hollywood
06-01-2013, 11:48 PM
Financially, Set 1 probably means close to nothing for CZE. It's Sets 3+ that they'll begin building back into the black and start making a self-sustaining profit. Just have to make it there with a growing client base. Which offering loads of free goodies for a short initial period will help do.

Rapkannibale
06-02-2013, 01:05 AM
One thing to remember is that KS crowd is not equal live crowd. There are less than 10k people that are super dedicated and here on KS. Once the game goes live, there will (hopefully) tens of thousands new people joining that didn't have access to all of these KS goodness. The KS people will be in the minority and I believe relatively quickly the market will normalize.

volkmar77
06-02-2013, 04:01 AM
Yes, there will be a lot of set 1 cards around, but keep in mind that, beside primal packs, you only get 1 rare/legendary per booster.
So those 158 boosters means 158 rarers which will most likely not give you enough to have all rares or have 4 cards set of rares/legendaries you want, leading to massive trading as you try to sell off the rarers you do not want for the ones you do.

Yes, common/Uncommon will flood, but that is always the case, the rares is what the economy will turn around (see MtG Dual lands/Planeswalkers/etc. beside a few older common/uncommon with great value like Rancor before it got reprinted, Counterspell or Swords to Plowshares before Path to Exile).

Of course you do get a Primal pack and each of those other 155 packs could be primal too, we just do not know the % chance of that, so you might end up with more rarers than assumed here.