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MugenMusou
06-13-2013, 05:03 AM
Couple new articles for beginners.

1. Optimal Resource Card # in a deck (http://houshasen.wordpress.com/2013/06/10/%E3%80%90hex%E3%80%91-whats-the-optimal-number-of-resource-card/). For those who doesn't want to read 24 +/- 4 is a one way.
2. Number of copies (http://houshasen.wordpress.com/2013/06/12/%E3%80%90hex%E3%80%91number-of-copies/). How it would affect your chance of drawing the card. Is including 4 always necessary?
3. Optimal Resource Ratio for Multi-shard deck "SBS Method" (http://houshasen.wordpress.com/2013/06/16/%E3%80%90hex%E3%80%91-optimal-resource-ratio-for-multi-shard-deck/) Basically I created a step by step approach to come up with # of resource cards in multi-shard deck (obviously you can use for single shard here as well).

Constructive criticism is always appreciated. Let me know what you think.

Stok3d
06-13-2013, 05:12 AM
I figured out where your links were. I suggest bold/color/underline so ppl may notice it.

Willzyx
06-13-2013, 05:13 AM
I like it. As someone who's built decks before but never really had a good reason for putting X number of a card in besides "I don't have many 3 cost cards... Let's put in more", this line of thinking helps me make better decisions. I'm also glad for some written guides; YouTube gets a lot of instructables but it's not always practical to watch a video.

If you make more, I'll read more.

Your guides/posts could use a little proof reading, though. Just a minor complaint.

Edit: I'd also like to see more of the guide-type posts but the opinion-type posts (e.g. "MTG Clone?") don't do much for me personally.

Icepick
06-13-2013, 05:30 AM
Some very nice articles. Lots of good, nicely explained information there, especially for new players. Good stuff.
Also, nice to see a fellow Eye of Judgment fansite alum :D

jgsugden
06-13-2013, 09:54 AM
Nice articles.

My only hesitation on the resource one is that there are two aspects to the mana curve in MtG: Provision of resources and use of resources. I'm not so certain that the use of resources is going to be substantially identical in Hex and MtG. Accordingly, I'm not so sure that the ~40% resource cards (24 in 60 or 16 in 40 - my default was always 25 and 17) is going to be the right pivot point for resource cards in this game. I'm not saying I know what that pivot point will be - I'm merely saying we don't know enough to know where it will be.

In MtG, you need to get a certain amount of land/mana in your starting hand so that you can quickly power your deck to be fully functional, but you don't want so much land/mana in your deck that you're reducing your options to do things. That key point is somewhere around 40% for most decks.

In Hex, you have the same general need to be able to power your deck, but there are some differences in terms of how we use resources. We potentially have an additional avenue to use resources in the ability on our champion (we don't know how all of those work, yet). We also see a different cost structure in this game than in MtG. If you look at the 'equivalent' cards in magic to some of the previews we've seen, the costs are different - in most instances being slightly accelerated. I believe we get 'bigger and badder' faster because there are more opportunities to advance and build up resources we've already put into play in meaningful, long term, ways. Also, some of the mechanics change cards in our decks into other cards, which can massively change how many resources you want. Imagine that you had 8 cards in your deck that allowed you to change resource cards into other cards. How would that impact the number of resources you include? What if those changes were permanent - lasting beyond the match you were in - and you couldn't replace them between matches in a tournament? Or between combats in PvE (like Loti)? Also, there seem to be ideas that pull opponent cards into your deck, or put cards in an opponent's deck. How do those mechanics adjust the percentage of resources you want to have? If you have a deck of 60 cards with 24 resource cards, draw 3 in your starting hand, and then see me balloon your deck up to 90 cards over three turns before you draw another resource... you go from 24 of 50 cards left being resources (nearly 50%) to 24 of 80 cars left being resources (30%). Big difference. Or what if I put all my X type of resource cards into your deck? - Adding 10 more resources so that your deck is 34 of 60 versus 24 of 50?

Regardless, I don't think we yet understand how this all fits together to establish how many resource cards we'll need to power our decks. I think we're going to be close to that 40% mark in general, but I would not be shocked to see the balance point be as low as 20 or as high as 30 for a 60 card deck when all is said and done. There are just too many unknowns. Heck, for all we know deck depletion will be such an effective strategy that 60 card decks will not be the standard in constructed.

Erebus
06-13-2013, 10:21 AM
I really am curious on how the difference of Threshold will change Resource ratios. If you have a deck that's 50% Sapphire and 50% Wild, but all your Sapphires are 1 Threshold, what's the minimum number of Sapphire resources you need to include to have a reasonable chance to draw 1 in your opening hand? Well I guess I could do the math.

SomeoneRandom
06-13-2013, 10:28 AM
Seems good, I like the number article and seeing the actual probabilities. I never actually looked at a breakdown like that, but the calculations I did in my head ended up being around where the charts were... guess that just comes from experience. Thanks for doing the math!

@erebus: I think you will see a lot more even splits in this game than in other TCGs. In MTG for example it is feasible to run only 3-5 sources of a color if you only have 1-3 cards using that color and if you don't draw the color you need having 1 dead card won't usually lose you the game. However, depending on your threshold requirements it might be a better idea in Hex to include somewhere around 6-9 of a resource when you only have 1-3 cards of that color since it will make sure you hit it and not hold back your other cards.

As for a 50/50 split with only 1 threshold blues, it will really depend on how aggressive your other colors thresholds were. I drafted up a couple three color decks and being threshold light I ended up being around a 12/8/6 split with only 4 Diamond cards, 8 Ruby cards and the rest Wild.

I love the resource system in this game because I think it is really deep for deckbuilding without being overly complicated. I honestly hope multi-gem resources are not good or have a big restriction because I enjoy the deckbuilding aspect of working around threshold. If we get too many multi-gem resources you won't need to do that and you could run whatever threshold costs you want in 2-3 color decks and still hit your optimum curve. For Example: Currently if you want an aggressive blood/ruby deck if you start turn 1 Savage Raider you can't follow up with Blood Harbringer... if you start Blood Harbringer you can't follow up with Rage Monger. I think it adds a lot of depth people are missing when they are deckbuilding.

Tathel
06-13-2013, 11:01 AM
I really am curious on how the difference of Threshold will change Resource ratios. If you have a deck that's 50% Sapphire and 50% Wild, but all your Sapphires are 1 Threshold, what's the minimum number of Sapphire resources you need to include to have a reasonable chance to draw 1 in your opening hand? Well I guess I could do the math.

This is what i'm very interested in as well.

But this article is great for new players or casual players who never really considered the statistics for land and card use.

whythelastman
06-13-2013, 11:12 AM
Extremely helpful. Will have to show these to my mathematically-inclined girlfriend to help convince her to play HEX. Thanks!

Rtsands45
06-13-2013, 11:26 AM
I would be happy if the Author would post the equations he used for the data.

jgsugden
06-13-2013, 12:19 PM
I really am curious on how the difference of Threshold will change Resource ratios. If you have a deck that's 50% Sapphire and 50% Wild, but all your Sapphires are 1 Threshold, what's the minimum number of Sapphire resources you need to include to have a reasonable chance to draw 1 in your opening hand? Well I guess I could do the math.I think the opening hand questions are very similar to MtG. At least they seem so right now. If you want 1 resource card of a given color in your starting hand of 8 cards, and 20% of your 60 card deck (12 cards) is that color of resource, you have an 85% chance to draw one (roughly). I think it is the mid-game (when you may have only drawn one resource card of a given type) is where the changes happen.

I think Hex will be easier to go tri-color than MtG, but we really need to see the full game before we can be sure. Common cards and unannounced mechanics might have a huge influence on deck building.

jgsugden
06-13-2013, 12:21 PM
The author did include the following in his first article as a source for his calculations:

Great website http://ark42.com/mtg/land.php can dynamically create the above table. So if you like statistics, there you go. Play with it!

Baigan
06-13-2013, 12:25 PM
RTsands45: Link: An article on the hypergeometric distribution (http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/hypergeometric.aspx).

Didn't check the whole table but what I did check matches. :)

Edit: The wiki article is too fancy, provided a better link. :p

MugenMusou
06-13-2013, 12:32 PM
Thanks all for kind words.

Threshold calculation seems much simpler than that of multicolor magic deck since it is really a threshold rather than actual mana requirement per card basis. I guess I will try to think about this a little and perhaps would be my third Stat analysis article of HEX. Again thanks for great feedbacks.




Regardless, I don't think we yet understand how this all fits together to establish how many resource cards we'll need to power our decks. I think we're going to be close to that 40% mark in general, but I would not be shocked to see the balance point be as low as 20 or as high as 30 for a 60 card deck when all is said and done. There are just too many unknowns. Heck, for all we know deck depletion will be such an effective strategy that 60 card decks will not be the standard in constructed.

I agree with you. HEX is NOT completely same as that of Magic in respect to resource system. But I see it extremely similar at its core. Sure mechanics like escalation, putting card in opponent deck will change the statistics, but Magic have their own mechanics that changes statistics such as Shock Land.

Charging champion is a great feature but based on what I have seen so far, the abilities are NOT ground breaking of their own. Ones like creating tokens. Don't get me wrong. They are great, I love it. But if champions are balanced, which they will on PvP, I just cannot imagine those abilities have much effect on the resource stat.

As far as 40% rule, as you said nobody knows whether it would work or not and in fact, I believe its a just starting point and in reality each deck needs to fine tune rather than say 40% and works!

But I won't be surprised if 24 becomes 22 or 26 when actual game starts but that itself probably changes set to set.

I really appreciate your detail insight, and discussion because these are things I hope to do when I write article i.e. discuss about the topic with others.

MugenMusou
06-13-2013, 12:34 PM
I would be happy if the Author would post the equations he used for the data.

Resource system, I did use the land calculation site.

For # of copies, I did use hypergeo function which is pretty standard for card draw calculation in TCG. But since you asked for it, I will update my article to include the equation. :)

Mebius
06-14-2013, 01:17 AM
Thank you for articles. For newbie like me, they very interesting and helpful!

MugenMusou
06-16-2013, 11:07 PM
Since couple of you asked about threshold/multishard calculation I tried. Let me know what you all think?

http://houshasen.wordpress.com/2013/06/16/%E3%80%90hex%E3%80%91-optimal-resource-ratio-for-multi-shard-deck/

madar
06-17-2013, 12:41 AM
Since couple of you asked about threshold/multishard calculation I tried. Let me know what you all think?

http://houshasen.wordpress.com/2013/06/16/%E3%80%90hex%E3%80%91-optimal-resource-ratio-for-multi-shard-deck/

very good article, thank you for it!
would be cool if a random deck builder site could include the math and count the optimal resource combination\numbers by the deck (but maybe the ingame AI helper will do it too)

MrSeriousBsns
06-17-2013, 05:28 AM
I like the article... especially the part about the "keep this in your pocket chart". I've bookmarked the page for future reference to see how the calculations work out when we actually get access to Hex :)

Tathel
06-17-2013, 06:09 AM
Yes, excellent resource! Thanks for the method.

MugenMusou
06-17-2013, 06:14 AM
very good article, thank you for it!
would be cool if a random deck builder site could include the math and count the optimal resource combination\numbers by the deck (but maybe the ingame AI helper will do it too)

Glad you all liked it. I agree deck builder site include this feature for automatic calculation, and just like you said best would be the actual in game app itself.

I'm too cheap to host my own server that support server side script, but if there is any good database/deck building site need my help, I'd be happy too.