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Emander
06-14-2013, 04:34 PM
What do you think will be the chase rares/legendaries of set 1, and where do you think they will trade?

For me, vampire king looks the chasiest so far and wouldn't be surprised to see it trade @ 5+ boosters (or $10/10 plat, whatever convention you want to use.

Talreth
06-14-2013, 04:35 PM
maybe half that

DjiN
06-14-2013, 04:40 PM
Just depends on the demand. If there's a lot of demand for constructed decks prices might even get higher than that.

Avaian
06-14-2013, 04:51 PM
Jadiim is going to rock some socks.

jgsugden
06-14-2013, 06:28 PM
The demand for singles is going to be based upon constructed play, primarily, as PvE seems to be headed in a direction where PvP cards get outclassed quickly. I don't expect constructed to take off too quickly for people that don't aready have a plethora of cards through KS options. As such, I wouldn't plan on getting a good amount in the singles market for a while.

djlowballer
06-14-2013, 06:31 PM
Out of curiosity why has the term always been "chase" rare in TCGs? I always thought people meant choice until I left MTG

Captain_Obvious
06-14-2013, 06:32 PM
What do you think will be the chase rares/legendaries of set 1, and where do you think they will trade?

For me, vampire king looks the chasiest so far and wouldn't be surprised to see it trade @ 5+ boosters (or $10/10 plat, whatever convention you want to use.

~ Other threads claim boosters are worth $0.89 so Vampire King is worth exactly $4.45 ~

Lochar
06-14-2013, 06:42 PM
Out of curiosity why has the term always been "chase" rare in TCGs? I always thought people meant choice until I left MTG

It's something you chase after to get.

CodexReaper
06-14-2013, 06:51 PM
There's some amazing Artifact cards that could synergize well with Dwarven decks, and anything Dragon-related seems, initially, to be very popular - I think part of the thing to keep in mind when looking at cards worth chasing is the popularity of certain decks based on favored playstyle & metagame, in addition to what deck types are most in demand for the more challenging Dungeon & Raid encounters on the PvE angle. Both aspects of the game will play a factor in determining the most valuable "chase" cards, and you'll need to account for both if you want to make profit on the AH.

Stok3d
06-14-2013, 06:57 PM
I predict the 'Stok3d Card' to be a sought out chase card and have insider info that it has intentions of being hoarded. Expect long term prices to skyrocket! :p

Lochar
06-14-2013, 07:02 PM
Just because you're trying to get them to make an ecchi card doesn't mean they'll let you. :P

Shadowelf
06-14-2013, 07:06 PM
Isn't it too early to speculate about card prices ?

Anyway eye of creation is the kind card i'd like to brew around, and depending what the rest of the set offers, it has the potential to be really awesome

Dropbear
06-14-2013, 07:13 PM
We can't speculate on anything right now due to two reasons:

A) We only know around 30-40% of the cards that are available in set 1, none in set 2 or 3. There could be a super card that everyone wants and it's metagame-changing and we don't know it yet.
B) We don't know what the starter decks consist of. If a rare card is featured in the starter decks the price of it usually goes way down.

ALL THAT BEING SAID, I think we could see cards like Sabotage and such being popular.

Captain_Obvious
06-14-2013, 07:20 PM
We can't speculate on anything right now due to two reasons:

A) We only know around 30-40% of the cards that are available in set 1, none in set 2 or 3. There could be a super card that everyone wants and it's metagame-changing and we don't know it yet.
B) We don't know what the starter decks consist of. If a rare card is featured in the starter decks the price of it usually goes way down.

ALL THAT BEING SAID, I think we could see cards like Sabotage and such being popular.

~You just proved exactly why we can speculate. It`s no longer speculation if you possess all the relevant information~

CodexReaper
06-14-2013, 07:23 PM
~You just proved exactly why we can speculate. It`s no longer speculation if you possess all the relevant information~

Well, that's not entirely true - even once we have all of the cards revealed, we can then speculate more accurately on what cards could end up being the most popular, which is something we won't know for sure until we have actual AH data to go by. Right now, the problem is we're trying to speculate on popularity while knowing not even half of the first set, so any predictions at this point are fairly uninformed, at best.

Captain_Obvious
06-14-2013, 07:24 PM
Well, that's note entirely true - even once we have all of the cards revealed, we can then speculate more accurately on what cards could end up being the most popular, which is something we won't know for sure until we have actual AH data to go by. Right now, the problem is we're trying to speculate on popularity while knowing not even half of the first set, so any predictions at this point are fairly uninformed, at best.

~Actually you reiterated my point~

CodexReaper
06-14-2013, 07:42 PM
~Actually you reiterated my point~

True, but we can still speculate even once we have all the cards revealed before launch. That's what I was trying to say...perhaps I wasn't saying it clearly enough. :P

tautologico
06-14-2013, 08:36 PM
Isn't it too early to speculate about card prices ?


Yes it is. We know less than half of the cards of Set 1, and even if we already knew all of them, it's hard to predict the value of cards before they're in play and people start brewing tournament decks with them. Of course we can speculate about this stuff but there's so little information to go on right now that's not much fun IMO.

KaosSoul
06-14-2013, 08:41 PM
i predict that nothing in Set 1 will go higher then 2 booster, aside from Exclusives, Vanity, and Producer cards, perhaps AA for insane collectors, just the KS ppl is enought to swarm the Set 1 with gazzilion of everything, thats not counting new players that will join, if you need planning wait for Set 2-3 or Even set 4 when only PP and up have weekly free tournaments

Shadowelf
06-14-2013, 08:56 PM
Also there is no way to know which cards will turn to be pve all stars since we know nothing about AI decks at the moment; A card that is rated as crap , may turn to be pve amazing just like mtg/commander. I don't know how many times i was pointed to cards in my trade binder, with 0 pvp value, which were worth $10 or more

Dropbear
06-14-2013, 09:01 PM
All depends on whether the booster sets are unable to be bought after a certain period of time.

Mokog
06-14-2013, 09:21 PM
I believe there is a way to calculate a base line value for the cards. It will always be approximate but if what I am working on right now is fruitful it is going to make for a great video :cool:

Fruits of Labor:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ADZml7rMWk&feature=youtu.be

Shadowelf
06-14-2013, 09:40 PM
All depends on whether the booster sets are unable to be bought after a certain period of time.

For cards to retain value, they have to have fixed 'print' runs and not 'print' on demand; allowing sets to go out of 'print' isn't enough.

BenRGamer
06-14-2013, 11:54 PM
My guess is either Zombie Plague or whatever the alternate art rare/legendary collector cards are.

Rapkannibale
06-15-2013, 12:35 AM
For cards to retain value, they have to have fixed 'print' runs and not 'print' on demand; allowing sets to go out of 'print' isn't enough.

Could you explain this further? Even if there is an unlimited print run while the set is available for purchase, there will still be a limited number of any particular card from that set available in the Eco system. And that number will constantly be dwindling as people leave the game. So why wouldn't chase cards from out of print sets retain or even gain value?

Emander
06-15-2013, 01:59 AM
While there are clearly a lot of unknowns, we can still speculate! We just have to do so on the basis of currently available information. :)

There will clearly be a lot of set 1 boosters flying around, but I don't think the market will be swamped with playsets of legendaries to the point of making them ridiculously cheap. If the drop rate on legendaries is 1/5 boosters, and looking at some of the junk rares spoiled, I would happily trade more than 2 boosters for the best legendaries (and let's say 20%-30% of legendaries are truly chaseworthy)


One good point made is what the demand will look like for constructed play, which is a big unknown, as this would likely be the driver for absolute $/plat trade value. The PVE demand likely wont drive huge dollar value for things that are not constructed playable in the first place, but it's fun to think about how the equipment system could turn junk rares into desirable PVE powerhouses by grafting broken features onto the cards.

Shadowelf
06-15-2013, 03:31 AM
Could you explain this further? Even if there is an unlimited print run while the set is available for purchase, there will still be a limited number of any particular card from that set available in the Eco system. And that number will constantly be dwindling as people leave the game. So why wouldn't chase cards from out of print sets retain or even gain value?

Take mtg for example; that a set is 2 years in circulation, it doesn't mean that it will be 2 years in print. Worldwake is the best example; the set was out of print 6 months before rotating out of standard. Thus Jace TMS is now a $150 card (among other reasons :P). In hex however there are already millions of boosters sold, and if set 1 will be available for 2 years till it rotate, i expect the singles' prices to plummet. Fallen emires is an example that highlights this case; it was overprinted and despite being out of print for 18 years, singles prices are next to nothing. Fixed print runs also help estimate the number of copies of any given card, which is equally important to its collector's value; there 1000 Alpha Black lotuses in circulation. See what i mean ?

Icepick
06-15-2013, 04:12 AM
It also raises an interesting question about how they generate boosters internally. Does their server generated them in batches, as a real card printing press would, and then add these batches to a pool to be sold? Or is each booster completely randomly generated upon purchase? If a certain rare is randomly generated a statistically significant number of times more or less than the average, that could greatly effect card prices too.

BenRGamer
06-15-2013, 06:49 AM
It also raises an interesting question about how they generate boosters internally. Does their server generated them in batches, as a real card printing press would, and then add these batches to a pool to be sold? Or is each booster completely randomly generated upon purchase? If a certain rare is randomly generated a statistically significant number of times more or less than the average, that could greatly effect card prices too.

They've specifically said they're emulating real world booster making practices, so, yeah.

They were talking about emulating the whole process with cardsheets and hoppers. If they really wanted to, I suppose they could put an actual limit on how many cards are available while they're being printed.

Malicus
06-15-2013, 08:02 AM
The difference between a fixed print run in the real world and the digital is that the print run fixes the volume in the real world while sales will fix the volume in the digital but you don't have the theoretical real world issue of a print run exceeding sales which is essentially what occurs in the fallen empires example. (Only booster box I could ever afford when I played Magic, a fond memory Thulls I think). In a digital world demand should directly generate supply so equilibrium should be fairly stable (in general anyway - any one individual card could go anywhere).

That said the smaller the run the generally more valuable a card will be as this becomes simple supply and demand logic.

As to specific cards I personally wish I could artificially inflate the value of Zombie plague by stockpiling them since they are mean to bunnies, sadly I doubt I would ever have enough to impact the market.

Icepick
06-15-2013, 10:39 AM
I very much doubt that there will be limited quantities of boosters, as for a digital product it would just make no sense. I know they want to emulate the way physical TCG's work with regards to card value/collectability, but if a player goes to the Hex store and sees that they can't buy a digital booster because they are "sold out", it's going to massively annoy a lot of people.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised if in the future they did do some special sets that did only have a limited quantity available, or were only on sale for a (relatively) short period of time (like a month, for example.)

nandus
06-15-2013, 12:03 PM
I very much doubt that there will be limited quantities of boosters, as for a digital product it would just make no sense. I know they want to emulate the way physical TCG's work with regards to card value/collectability, but if a player goes to the Hex store and sees that they can't buy a digital booster because they are "sold out", it's going to massively annoy a lot of people.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised if in the future they did do some special sets that did only have a limited quantity available, or were only on sale for a (relatively) short period of time (like a month, for example.)

This! After all that talk about a true digital TCG and the unique advantages that provides, canceling the sale of digital boosters from a certain set would certainly anger me. What kind of "print run" excuse can they offer in the digital realm, to make cards less unavailable and thus drive the price upwards. I wouldn't be against special limited products, maybe something like tournament packs or fat packs(with more than just cards); just not with regular set boosters.

tautologico
06-15-2013, 12:13 PM
This! After all that talk about a true digital TCG and the unique advantages that provides, canceling the sale of digital boosters from a certain set would certainly anger me. What kind of "print run" excuse can they offer in the digital realm, to make cards less unavailable and thus drive the price upwards. I wouldn't be against special limited products, maybe something like tournament packs or fat packs(with more than just cards); just not with regular set boosters.

This was amply debated in the forums already. If the intention is to make a collectible card game, sets must be retired from circulation after a time, otherwise cards won't have much value. A good part of the audience of HEX and the Kickstarter backers expect the game to be a TCG and they would not like if all the sets were always available.

Punk
06-15-2013, 12:53 PM
What do you think will be the chase rares/legendaries of set 1, and where do you think they will trade?

For me, vampire king looks the chasiest so far and wouldn't be surprised to see it trade @ 5+ boosters (or $10/10 plat, whatever convention you want to use.

I think that prices will be low within the first couple days and then you will notice specific Chase Rares go up significantly (in comparison to other rares). I also think that by the time Set 3 comes out, you will see the community stabilize on a specific price range for the most powerful cards out of each set. At this point is when Set 1 cards will peak in price since no one will primarily be opening booster packs of Set 1 (outside of limited events), but the cards will still be very relevant to constructed play.

ramseytheory
06-15-2013, 01:08 PM
This! After all that talk about a true digital TCG and the unique advantages that provides, canceling the sale of digital boosters from a certain set would certainly anger me. What kind of "print run" excuse can they offer in the digital realm, to make cards less unavailable and thus drive the price upwards. I wouldn't be against special limited products, maybe something like tournament packs or fat packs(with more than just cards); just not with regular set boosters.

There are two separate issues here. The first is whether to sell a limited number of boosters of each set, and the second is whether to sell boosters of a given set of a limited time. Selling a limited number of boosters would be crazy, as other people have pointed out. Stopping sale of a given set after two years would make a lot of sense, though, since sets rotate out of standard format at that point anyway. That way the secondary market retains value and people can invest in Hex the same way they could any other TCG, but there's no restriction on new players jumping into standard format.

blitz1442
06-15-2013, 01:43 PM
CZE will continue to "print" boosters as long as the set is in competitive rotation, because that is how they make *all* of their money. They will be limited by time as sets rotate out of competitive rotation. It does weaken collectibility because the more popular the game, the more cards will be in circulation, but they really can't do it any other way. Limited numbers of cards may work on the PvE side... first 100 to down a boss, first 1000 to complete a holiday event, etc. or for some kind of PvP-balanced, but not core set, cards. This would be like MtG products such as Duel Decks, "From the Vault", and Premium products.

Mr.Funsocks
06-15-2013, 05:01 PM
There're other options than not selling boosters after a time/count limit: They could have a limited number of rare/legendary cards "printed" (so long as it is very publicly acknowledged), and further boosters just won't have the shot to contain those cards any more.

BenRGamer
06-15-2013, 05:05 PM
...then why still sell them? If the commons and uncommons are popular enough, they'll be reprinted in their own right.

Mr.Funsocks
06-15-2013, 05:11 PM
...then why still sell them? If the commons and uncommons are popular enough, they'll be reprinted in their own right.

Because they then still have something to sell to new players who need stacks of commons/uncommons, or players who need some of the more popular commons. The chasey cards can remain chasey and have value though. As I said, as long as they are up front about it (possibly even announcing it and reducing price on rared-out set boosters), it would avoid both the problem of a dearth of cards/inability to buy things, and avoid flooding the market with valuable and supposedly rare cards.

stiii
06-15-2013, 05:12 PM
I think that prices will be low within the first couple days and then you will notice specific Chase Rares go up significantly (in comparison to other rares). I also think that by the time Set 3 comes out, you will see the community stabilize on a specific price range for the most powerful cards out of each set. At this point is when Set 1 cards will peak in price since no one will primarily be opening booster packs of Set 1 (outside of limited events), but the cards will still be very relevant to constructed play.

The problem with set one cards is so many are getting opened. Two million packs floods the market to a massive degree.

stiii
06-15-2013, 05:13 PM
Because they then still have something to sell to new players who need stacks of commons/uncommons, or players who need some of the more popular commons. The chasey cards can remain chasey and have value though. As I said, as long as they are up front about it (possibly even announcing it and reducing price on rared-out set boosters), it would avoid both the problem of a dearth of cards/inability to buy things, and avoid flooding the market with valuable and supposedly rare cards.

But why would anyone buy old packs when they could just buy com/unc cards off the AH? It would pretty much just be new players who didn't know how screwed they were getting.

Mr.Funsocks
06-15-2013, 05:16 PM
But why would anyone buy old packs when they could just buy com/unc cards off the AH? It would pretty much just be new players who didn't know how screwed they were getting.

Imagine you start playing the game fresh, and literally only have a starter deck, but the current sets are all sold-out. You don't know what cards are worth buying in singles off the AH, because you've never played, and you want to be able to hop right in to do some PvP-ey things, not just grind PvE until the next set comes out. What do you do?

As long as players KNOW that they aren't getting the "full value" (and more and more I think there should be a discount for packs with no rares if they go this route), and it's fully disclosed, the best way to get some stuff to play with is to buy a few boosters, even if they ARE all common/uncommon.

stiii
06-15-2013, 05:17 PM
Imagine you start playing the game fresh, and literally only have a starter deck, but the current sets are all sold-out. You don't know what cards are worth buying in singles off the AH, because you've never played, and you want to be able to hop right in to do some PvP-ey things, not just grind PvE until the next set comes out. What do you do?

As long as players KNOW that they aren't getting the "full value" (and more and more I think there should be a discount for packs with no rares if they go this route), and it's fully disclosed, the best way to get some stuff to play with is to buy a few boosters, even if they ARE all common/uncommon.

Why wouldn't they be able to buy boosters of the most current set?

Mr.Funsocks
06-15-2013, 05:19 PM
Why wouldn't they be able to buy boosters of the most current set?

Not if it isn't out yet and the previous one is sold out (assuming here they go with a limited number of cards printed per set).

Mr.Funsocks
06-15-2013, 05:21 PM
Another consideration for card rarity: If we can break down PvP cards for crafting mats, and sets go out of print, even if tons were bought during their "run", they will slowly be whittled down until their value as cards outweighs their value as crafting mats.

maniza
06-15-2013, 05:28 PM
Sets do not go out of print until they rotate out of standard. So there are at least 3 sets you can allways buy boosters from

maniza
06-15-2013, 05:29 PM
Another consideration for card rarity: If we can break down PvP cards for crafting mats, and sets go out of print, even if tons were bought during their "run", they will slowly be whittled down until their value as cards outweighs their value as crafting mats.


How is that a bad thing? Plus im prety shure rare and legendary pvp cards will be worth more than the cafting mats you get out of them

nandus
06-15-2013, 05:32 PM
This was amply debated in the forums already. If the intention is to make a collectible card game, sets must be retired from circulation after a time, otherwise cards won't have much value. A good part of the audience of HEX and the Kickstarter backers expect the game to be a TCG and they would not like if all the sets were always available.

I have played some MTG, SWTCG and MTGO, so I have a pretty good picture of how that works. Nevertheless, even if Hex has been inspired mostly by MTG gameplay rules and such, this aspect I think should be different. Just because other physical TCGs have that protocol doesn't mean Hex should. If packs never run out, you can still collect cards; there is no change there. Unlimited boosters for each set would only help keep the prices of cards within reasonable limits and thus make it affordable for everyone. I can't really see anything wrong with that really. Furthermore if Hex does this it will not cease to be a TCG, it will be a truly DIGITAL TCG and a much better one IMO. Creating artificial demand for a digital product, which is basically a bunch of bytes, is just playing wrong. I am a King backer by the way, I would have gone for more but a hesitated for a day and couldn't grab pro.


There are two separate issues here. The first is whether to sell a limited number of boosters of each set, and the second is whether to sell boosters of a given set of a limited time. Selling a limited number of boosters would be crazy, as other people have pointed out. Stopping sale of a given set after two years would make a lot of sense, though, since sets rotate out of standard format at that point anyway. That way the secondary market retains value and people can invest in Hex the same way they could any other TCG, but there's no restriction on new players jumping into standard format.

I am pretty sure they will come up with an extended format, for sets that are left behind from standard. So these sets will still be playable, both for people that played while it was in standard and new players that want to try that format. Having boosters for sale from all sets always helps both kinds, those who want to complete their collection and those who want to start getting old cards for playing extended. Rares/Legendaries will still sell for a lot more money that ordinary cards and boosters, but at least the prices will be kept in check and don't go bonkers like in Magic. A physical card I can understand, but to put a price on a bunch of bytes based on availability is some what insulting.

To sum up, I am aware that I am probably arguing in vain, since CZE is most likely to go with tradition and keep this just at is in MTGO; creating a demand in the secondary market so collectors can make money. I will probably be one of those collectors, since I plan to play this game until I drop dead; BUT I still think the game would much better served if boosters were always available in unlimited quantities. Card value can still go up with the double back feature, winning tournaments + foiling + alt art and rarity; this is not needed neither for the collecting nor for the trading part of TCG. So let's try to keep the doors as open as possible, so more players can come in and afford to play in PVP.

maniza
06-15-2013, 06:09 PM
I have played some MTG, SWTCG and MTGO, so I have a pretty good picture of how that works. Nevertheless, even if Hex has been inspired mostly by MTG gameplay rules and such, this aspect I think should be different. Just because other physical TCGs have that protocol doesn't mean Hex should. If packs never run out, you can still collect cards; there is no change there. Unlimited boosters for each set would only help keep the prices of cards within reasonable limits and thus make it affordable for everyone. I can't really see anything wrong with that really. Furthermore if Hex does this it will not cease to be a TCG, it will be a truly DIGITAL TCG and a much better one IMO. Creating artificial demand for a digital product, which is basically a bunch of bytes, is just playing wrong. I am a King backer by the way, I would have gone for more but a hesitated for a day and couldn't grab pro.



I am pretty sure they will come up with an extended format, for sets that are left behind from standard. So these sets will still be playable, both for people that played while it was in standard and new players that want to try that format. Having boosters for sale from all sets always helps both kinds, those who want to complete their collection and those who want to start getting old cards for playing extended. Rares/Legendaries will still sell for a lot more money that ordinary cards and boosters, but at least the prices will be kept in check and don't go bonkers like in Magic. A physical card I can understand, but to put a price on a bunch of bytes based on availability is some what insulting.

To sum up, I am aware that I am probably arguing in vain, since CZE is most likely to go with tradition and keep this just at is in MTGO; creating a demand in the secondary market so collectors can make money. I will probably be one of those collectors, since I plan to play this game until I drop dead; BUT I still think the game would much better served if boosters were always available in unlimited quantities. Card value can still go up with the double back feature, winning tournaments + foiling + alt art and rarity; this is not needed neither for the collecting nor for the trading part of TCG. So let's try to keep the doors as open as possible, so more players can come in and afford to play in PVP.

The thing about hex that to me makes it appealing is that it tries to innovate but also gives players the sense of playing a real paper tcg. And being able to buy any booster that ever existed detracts from that. Makes the older sets feel cheap instead of rare. Also it is confusing for new players if they buy packs they cant use in tournaments. I dont know how they plan to implement that in the future but maybe future pve content wont be compatible with older pvp cards so there is also that to take into account. Overal i think that just because the game its digital doesnt mean we have ditch things that worked in the past and replace them with new things that can only be done in digital, just because we can now.

Shadowelf
06-15-2013, 06:21 PM
Wait a minute guys ...if for example i decide to start magic now would i find innistrad boosters to buy ?Higly unlikely. Would it stop me from playing magic? no. I'll turn to the secondary market for singles. Generally speaking its not good for the price of cards to have unlimited print runs; I explained that in detail at page 3