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Mr.Funsocks
06-24-2013, 09:51 AM
I dunno why but I just love doing this type of thing. Obviously this is completely rampant speculation, but... what else is there to do?

Estimate 1: 200 000+ at release
This is based off of a simple number: Between 3-5% of players in a F2P game will buy something (from here (http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/134942/classic_design_lessons_what_.php?print=1), 4th bullet point). If we take the Kickstarter numbers, and discounting for multiple accounts, just wildly guess that there's 10 000 individuals who backed the Kickstarter. They are people willing to spend money on an otherwise F2P game, or the 5%. So, multiply by 20, and we get a number of 200 000.

I would actually guess that the launch numbers could be significantly higher, as these aren't just people willing to PAY for a F2P game: These are people willing to back a F2P game months before release. I would actually call most of the KS backers not just people paying in a F2P game, but whales (http://gamepolitics.com/2013/05/23/playnomics-reveals-consumer-spending-numbers-f2p-space-2013#.Uchz3PnryrN). The 1% of players willing to spend craptons of money on a F2P game. That would put the number far, far higher.

Estimate 2: 1 000 000 - 2 000 000 players 1 year on
This is a far more optimistic estimate, based on more assumptions, and thus more numbers of other games. This is based on WoW.

Prior to its release in 2004, the highest grossing MMO before WoW was Ultima Online, at 250 000 subscribers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultima_Online). That WAS the market for an MMO. But WoW blew open the market by being a well-made, accessible MMORPG (much as Hex is hoping to do with TCGs). As you can see here (http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/1091607-WoW-Subscriber-Data-Complete-Breakdown), WoW's numbers went from a somewhat small MMO, to an absolute explosion, more than doubling the previous record in their genre in the first year and hitting 500k+. Obviously there are great differences, as Hex is a completely different genre, and it's 9 years later and the landscape of everything is different. Far more people play games, and the market in general for gaming is much, much more competitive, to the point of flooding.

But, lets look at what the market might be for a digital TCG, and lets use MtG (digital and offline) numbers as a reference, as Hex is likely going to be pulling from the same crowd due to its similarities, and MtG is also the strongest competitor in both fields (in terms of numbers). MtGO has 300 000 registered accounts (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic:_The_Gathering_Online), but that number is likely WAY off the actual players. 2-4k are playing at one time per the wiki page, so lets say they maybe have 50 000 active players in MtGO. MtGO is also a steaming pile of shit for its interface, and I'd be surprised if that many people could actually tolerate it. Just on XBLive, the first DotP game has sold 500 000 units (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic:_The_Gathering_%E2%80%93_Duels_of_the_Planes walkers#Sales), and it isn't a full TCG, nor is it F2P. And that's only on XBL, and only for the first of the 3 (soon 4) releases, and is not counting the copies sold on Steam or PSN. Hasbro's 2011 player estimate for paper MtG is 12 million players (http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/21471.html), but seeing as how it's the umbrella corporation that markets it, I'm gonna say that's a wildly optimistic estimate. Lets say the actual paper MtG market is 5 million.

So... we've got several factors here:

1) The market for somewhat weak digital TCGs/CCGs is probably between 50 000 and 500 000.

2) The market for a strong paper TCG is 5 million+.

3) This is still a pretty niche genre, and using WoW as an example of a genre-exploder, the first year could easily double the marketplace.

If we assume the current market for Hex, a strong digital TCG, is somewhere between 250 000 (a sort of midway point on the current digital TCGs) and 5 million (the estimate on paper TCGs), and its initial population will be about 200 000 players (per estimate 1), I would guess that Hex, if it is as well made as all of us KS backers seem to think it is, could easily break the 1-2 million player mark 1 year on.

What are YOUR estimates?

Slish
06-24-2013, 09:55 AM
Errr. These seem far too optimistic numbers for me. Even estimate 1 is.
Unless this game is really going to be a succes ofcourse, and yes it looks pretty good so far.

But just based on similair games, they all have like 100-1000 active players online. (yes one hundred to one thousand).
MTGO, not sure, but I assume like 10k or something?
And Im talking about active players, not registered accounts.

So I dont know where these big numbers come from?

Mr.Funsocks
06-24-2013, 10:01 AM
Obviously they're numbers based on the game doing well. If the game ends up being shite, you can't really estimate that. You just assume it's a tiny number.

blakegrandon
06-24-2013, 10:04 AM
The biggest hurdle will be getting Hex's name out. As a purely digital F2P game(it really annoys me that they call it F2P, it dredges up memories of terrible cash shops and mediocrity), they will probably have a hard time selling through traditional retail outlets, which whether you like them or not are a huge portion of where sales occur.

I kind of wish they had shied away from a few of the more MMO terms, saying PVP/PVE/F2P can drive away potential players even if those are accurate descriptions.

If done right and marketed correctly I could see 500k+ players, what worries me is that a lot of MTG players I know don't want to "invest" in a new game when they already play MTG. Hopefully Hex will be able to appeal to the entrenched gamers that don't like to jump to a new ship even if their current ship is sinking.

The biggest difficult will be retention given gamers having the attention span of a ferret on meth, getting people to come back day after day even if it's an amazing game is more difficult than it looks.

Mr.Funsocks
06-24-2013, 10:06 AM
If done right and marketed correctly I could see 500k+ players, what worries me is that a lot of MTG players I know don't want to "invest" in a new game when they already play MTG. Hopefully Hex will be able to appeal to the entrenched gamers that don't like to jump to a new ship even if their current ship is sinking.

I think that's one that will be hard. If we assume that, maybe half the MtG players would jump ship, sell off their collections, and invest it all in Hex, Hex suddenly becomes a massive, smashing success (well... assuming Hasbro's numbers are worth anything). But the investment most players have, financially, in a TCG is probably prohibitive to them leaving it. I would guess it likely wouldn't happen unless MtG really starts dying out (which it likely won't, it's growing).

Qorsair
06-24-2013, 10:08 AM
I'd say the estimates might be a little too generous, time-wise. I don't doubt there will be millions of players. However, I would be surprised if we see 1 million in less than two years.

The transition from physical to digital is a big leap for a lot of people. I have several friends who used to play MtG together all the time, it took me about a year to get them onto digital (and some still haven't picked it up). And these are friends that who couldn't play MtG together physically because of time and distance limitations that digital solved almost entirely.

jai151
06-24-2013, 10:08 AM
Errr. These seem far too optimistic numbers for me. Even estimate 1 is.
Unless this game is really going to be a succes ofcourse, and yes it looks pretty good so far.

But just based on similair games, they all have like 100-1000 active players online. (yes one hundred to one thousand).
MTGO, not sure, but I assume like 10k or something?
And Im talking about active players, not registered accounts.

So I dont know where these big numbers come from?

MTGO active peak time numbers are 3k.

tautologico
06-24-2013, 10:10 AM
I think it's overly optimistic to expect the same growth pattern of WoW, but we'll see. Using paper MtG numbers to estimate may not be a good idea either; even today there are Magic players who don't want to play MTGO because they don't agree with the idea of buying digital cards that would disappear if the servers were shutdown. The paper game also has a strong social component with game shops, tournaments, GPs, etc. Of course HEX can create a social experience but we haven't seen much about this side of the game yet (we only know there will be guilds).

I don't have a strong estimate but I think in the ballpark of 200k players in the first year. Maybe 500k - 1M after a few years. If it's more than that then I won't complain :) But I also think the game doesn't need to have millions upon millions of players to be successful and profitable. This is not a typical MMO, it's cheaper to produce and maintain and PVPers will tend to spend lots of money on it. 1 Million active players would be HUGE for HEX, whereas for a typical MMO this may be considered mediocre due to comparisons with WoW and the costs associated with MMOs.

Dragonzero
06-24-2013, 10:18 AM
I find it is way easier to introduce someone to WoW then it is to introduce that same person to a card game. When it was a WoW card game though, those people would at the very least try it. That gives this game a lot of hope.

Unfortunately, some people see reading a card and figuring out how it reacts to another card, as a chore and they will flat out refuse to do it. That being said, WoW was a numbers game for a long time and still gained footing, the issue there was that people would just ignore the numbers part, and que up to be terrible....then get carried. Card games are far less forgiving. I guess you could random que with a starter deck and get some wins, but is that enough?

My hope is that the PVE part gives them the taste of winning, and hooks em! PvP would come later.

In the end it will be a lot of word of mouth, advertising and the quality of the game that would make it or break it. I personally have very high hopes for this game and I really believe in it. As far as numbers go, I'm hoping for very high ones.

tautologico
06-24-2013, 10:28 AM
I find it is way easier to introduce someone to WoW then it is to introduce that same person to a card game. When it was a WoW card game though, those people would at the very least try it. That gives this game a lot of hope.

Unfortunately, some people see reading a card and figuring out how it reacts to another card, as a chore and they will flat out refuse to do it. That being said, WoW was a numbers game for a long time and still gained footing, the issue there was that people would just ignore the numbers part, and que up to be terrible....then get carried. Card games are far less forgiving. I guess you could random que with a starter deck and get some wins, but is that enough?


That's my general impression too. Just the fact that you're playing with cards instead of having an avatar on-screen will turn off some people. WoW is not a simple game, but it does a very good job of hiding most of its complexity at the beginning and increasing complexity gradually as you level up. Even so, you'll probably only experience WoW's full complexity by going serious about PVP or by raiding at the endgame, and many players don't do either. I know players who get a character to max level and then start another one, and so on, maybe just going for a PUG raid once in a while. It's only when you need to raid well enough to be on a guild's raid roster that you'll notice all the stuff you need to know.

The PVE side of HEX has the potential of do what the levelling experience did for WoW, but it's not easy to do it right (notice the pile of dead MMOs who tried to mimic WoW's success) and playing with cards with lots of information will intimidate some people at first sight.

Googolplex
06-24-2013, 10:43 AM
200.000 ? 1-2 million ? Seriously, what's the reasoning behind these absurd numbers ?

I'd say somewhere between 25.000 and 100.000 is realistic.

Now I HOPE I am mistaken, I really hope we get millions, but I seriously doubt we will ever get near that.

Badmoonz
06-24-2013, 10:47 AM
It's kind of hard for me to say, because it's unclear if Set1 will coincide with an open beta, and how much other content is missing at the time. Let's say most everything is ready and working by the time the game becomes available to the public.

My guess would be around 20,000 users who login more than once. After about a month half of those users will be gone, but numbers will remain mostly unchanged from there. If or when Steam integration happens you could add an extra 100,000 users with about half of them leaving after a month.

blakegrandon
06-24-2013, 10:49 AM
200.000 ? 1-2 million ? Seriously, what's the reasoning behind these absurd numbers ?

I'd say somewhere between 25.000 and 100.000 is realistic.

Now I HOPE I am mistaken, I really hope we get millions, but I seriously doubt we will ever get near that.

Minecraft has had over 4 million people purchase the game, it's not unprecedented for games to have over a million+ players even if it's a niche game.

25,000 people is a absurd guess when you're talking about a game that already has had over 10,000 people drop over 2.5 million dollars on the game before Alpha is even out.

Hex has HUGE potential, and even though I disagree with the "F2P" moniker, free to play means the barrier to entry for new players will be nonexistent.

Nowadays a game company needs huge numbers of people to stay viable, especially if they've already sunk a huge amount of money into the game development.

Grumph
06-24-2013, 10:49 AM
I think that once people realize that the TCG block model is in place it will have a very negative impact on the player base. Hopefully I am wrong. However, I fear people will probably not research the game before they start playing and will be caught completely off guard when their collections become unplayable in constructed PvP.

As an example. I play League of Legends, I have unlocked all of the champions and I am able to get enough IP to unlock the new champions when they are released simply through casual play. If they were to cycle out all(or even half) of the current champions and introduce an entire new set of champions within a years time I would not be able to keep up and would probably stop playing all together.

I understand this is the nature of TCG's and is essential to keep the game balanced as more sets are release but the average MMO gamer will see this as a money sink and will most likely move on to another game.

jai151
06-24-2013, 10:54 AM
I think that once people realize that the TCG block model is in place it will have a very negative impact on the player base. Hopefully I am wrong. However, I fear people will probably not research the game before they start playing and will be caught completely off guard when their collections become unplayable in constructed PvP.

As an example. I play League of Legends, I have unlocked all of the champions and I am able to get enough IP to unlock the new champions when they are released simply through casual play. If they were to cycle out all(or even half) of the current champions and introduce an entire new set of champions within a years time I would not be able to keep up and would probably stop playing all together.

I understand this is the nature of TCG's and is essential to keep the game balanced as more sets are release but the average MMO gamer will see this as a money sink and will most likely move on to another game.

That will be, at earliest, two years down the line.

Brumby66
06-24-2013, 10:55 AM
If they develop the esport aspect early on then it will entice people into joining the game. Although most people won't win cash, the possibility of it brings people in. I'm going to estimate 40k players at launch and it may stabilize at 100k. Hex has the potential to go well above those numbers, but it depends how successful it is. I'll stick with those guesses for now.

Mr.Funsocks
06-24-2013, 11:09 AM
The transition from physical to digital is a big leap for a lot of people. I have several friends who used to play MtG together all the time, it took me about a year to get them onto digital (and some still haven't picked it up).


Using paper MtG numbers to estimate may not be a good idea either; even today there are Magic players who don't want to play MTGO because they don't agree with the idea of buying digital cards that would disappear if the servers were shutdown. The paper game also has a strong social component with game shops, tournaments, GPs, etc. Of course HEX can create a social experience but we haven't seen much about this side of the game yet (we only know there will be guilds).

I think that is mostly just a reaction to MtGO being digitalized MtG. It's strictly-inferior in a sense, as there's no physical object, and you pay the same price, and the digital cards don't translate into physical ones (unless you complete a set). Also a far smaller playerbase. Hex being both cheaper than MtG, and digital from the start, may alleviate that. I mean, look at Steam. A lot of the initial reactions to having an only-digital version of games were the same, but then Steam started giving better value for money than physical copies, rather than worse.


I find it is way easier to introduce someone to WoW then it is to introduce that same person to a card game. When it was a WoW card game though, those people would at the very least try it. That gives this game a lot of hope.

Unfortunately, some people see reading a card and figuring out how it reacts to another card, as a chore and they will flat out refuse to do it. That being said, WoW was a numbers game for a long time and still gained footing, the issue there was that people would just ignore the numbers part, and que up to be terrible....then get carried. Card games are far less forgiving. I guess you could random que with a starter deck and get some wins, but is that enough?

My hope is that the PVE part gives them the taste of winning, and hooks em! PvP would come later.


The PVE side of HEX has the potential of do what the levelling experience did for WoW, but it's not easy to do it right (notice the pile of dead MMOs who tried to mimic WoW's success) and playing with cards with lots of information will intimidate some people at first sight.

Here's where I think Hex has the massive advantage WoW did. The PvE side is unprecedented in TCGs in a lot of ways. If it's good enough, you can introduce the actual play through a very expansive tutorial, that Cory has described, and hopefully will exist. But then there's another thing PvE can do: Introduce cards 1 or 2 at a time.

If you want to get into playing MtG, what's the first thing you do? Some friend/guy at a card shop hands you a deck (or, worse yet, you buy one), and you spend 1 1/2 hrs reading every one of your cards, then read every one of your opponents' cards the first game, while learning all the rules. If you're doing this with a few friends, this can be time-consuming, but pleasant. If you aren't... this sucks. Terribly.

Playing Hex's PvE, you can have a tutorial that teaches you how to cast wolves and attack with them against an AI who has goblins, and those are the only 2 cards introduced at first. Then they can introduce a quick action on each side. And so on until you understand the concepts. THEN, as you go, you can earn a few cards at a time after each battle, read what they do, and decide if you like them in your deck. You're not buying 3-4 boosters at a time, getting bombarded with 30-40 new cards, just to expand your deck a bit. You're getting 1 card, reading it, and either using it or ignoring it. Then, once you have 20-30 games of PvE of some sort under your belt, you can venture to the AH, to the draft tourneys, etc.

That's why I feel the comparison to WoW is warranted. Even just trying that Duel of Champion TCG someone mentioned on the forum, I felt overwhelmed, and that's a simple, depthless game. But it had only a basic tutorial, then I had 3-4 boosters worth of cards I had to read to try and manipulate my deck, and I had no idea. If Hex does it right, it avoids that problem for new players.


200.000 ? 1-2 million ? Seriously, what's the reasoning behind these absurd numbers ?

I'd say somewhere between 25.000 and 100.000 is realistic.

Now I HOPE I am mistaken, I really hope we get millions, but I seriously doubt we will ever get near that.

I... um... gave you my reasons? That was the point of this thread... Where're your reasons for release not even doubling the number of players in a F2P game that paid in a Kickstarter? 'cause while I may be optimistic, THAT is ridiculous.


My guess would be around 20,000 users who login more than once. After about a month half of those users will be gone, but numbers will remain mostly unchanged from there. If or when Steam integration happens you could add an extra 100,000 users with about half of them leaving after a month.

I think that's pessimistic, if DotP is selling 500 000 copies. And speaking of markets Hex will be in, iOS and Android? The number of players in those two markets alone could be several hundred thousand on new people trying a TCG. If Hex is able to make a good enough tutorial to snare just a small percent of those...


I think that once people realize that the TCG block model is in place it will have a very negative impact on the player base. Hopefully I am wrong. However, I fear people will probably not research the game before they start playing and will be caught completely off guard when their collections become unplayable in constructed PvP.

Well, as already mentioned, that's not for 2 years. But a casual player is going to be perfectly happy playing vintage cards with friends, which is what I did with MtG for quite a while. And even if not, there will be vintage constructed tournament formats.

Dralon
06-24-2013, 11:10 AM
Interesting thoughts, and I agree a bit optimistic at this time. However WOW and League of Legends were also, I don't believe, predicted to become as big as they did, due to other previous games in their genre. I would use the wowtcg paper numbers comparison rather than MTG, if that number is available. My guess would be 50-100K, though I hope eventually it is much more. The success of duels of the planeswalkers I think can easily be achieved and hopefullly surpassed in time with a quality game and marketing, particularly when an IPad release is available.

The nature of it being a card game will hold it back from the success of other games, as I feel many people like controlling an avatar out there doing stuff in a video game. That just won't be present here, or as just a minor role moving from one PVE area to another depending on how that is designed. Also, and more importantly the Win/Loss nature of this type of game is something some people will not enjoy. It is one thing to roll through content for days in an MMO as often you have hours of gameplay before you see any "real challenge". If the PVE campaign is designed very difficult, or requiring a lot of card micromanagement to win games to experience it, especially early on in the PVE journey, then there are many who will log on, "lose" a few times, and never continue.

In many games you have reinforcement of success and the fun of "facerolling through some content". Honestly that is me many times. I am one of the players previously described as getting to max level and then rerolling to experience new characters, new skills, new regions. That is more fun to me then running Raid x 20 times to get the armour I need to to the "endgame" But games that have that diversity in the first 60, 75, 80, levels....that allow me to experience new content or rerun content in different ways, continue to get my subscription dollars, even if I only log on to play them a few times a month.

I also agree with another poster that compared gamers to squirrels on meth I believe :) We are. It's why I have active subscriptions to 3 MMO's and have 3 others I still log on from time to time in their f2p mode. It is also why some kind of a log in bonus (if not done cheesily as in some games) is important to get players to return to this game, instead of their many others games they play.

Thus I believe it is the PVE aspect of the game that will determine whether this game becomes a major hit as far as pure numbers go, because while there will always be the PVP experts, drawn to the game for the competitions, prizes and recognition, they just don't exist in the numbers that the "casual" (there, I said it) players will have. It can be successful if it draws only or mostly those, but it won't be the breakout, gamechanging game CZE wants it to be, unless they draw those "casuals"

P.S. Dont interpret this as me wanting the PVE side to be totally without challenge however. For example if I want that legendary loot from a raid, and I need to experience all or most of a dungeon without dieing 3 X to increase the rarity of the final reward, that should be made difficult to do - especially as you progress past the first few dungeons. But if a casual player can play for a while with their base cards, progressing along the short path to the dungeon bosses, level up their champion, obtain new pve cards, build up experience and victories through the beginning portions of the game, and learn the game and cards a step at a time, before they start getting "stomped" by the AI, those casual players are more likely to stay active, sign up for VIP, to spend money on boosters, to learn the game better and become more skilled, and eventually lead to this game becoming incredibly successful.

nicosharp
06-24-2013, 11:17 AM
400,000 ish year one.

The problem with TCG's even with MMO built in, is that it is really hard to attract a wide spectrum of casuals. At it's core it is a turn-based strategy game with lot of variables and a grind. This will turn off some casual strategy game fans, and will have a hard time roping in non-strategy gamers.

I think with time word will spread and it will slowly grow on people, but I rather be far more conservative on the short term expectations.

Gwaer
06-24-2013, 11:18 AM
Here are my factors, When is tablet support live. That's going to be huge on numbers. Also, how fast are the games, There needs to be a mode that lets people sit down for very small amounts of time and play a game, 5-15 minutes tops to really get mass interest. Basically there needs to be some sort of mini game that is fun to replay, and entertaining that will attract people when they don't have time to put into a 45 minute card game.

If tablet support is way out, and there is no casual quick entertaining thing to do, I'd say 25,000 at launch, and it will stay around there or less until tablet support is released. If there's a fun competitive innovative thing to do, that number will likely steadily rise, until tablet support hits, then I'd expect the player base to double briefly then fall off again slightly, then rise at a much quicker pace.

Diesbudt
06-24-2013, 11:20 AM
7

Mr.Funsocks
06-24-2013, 11:23 AM
I definitely think the success hinges on the PvE. The PvP will be good, and could compete with MtG for players directly. But that's not going to grow the market, and MtG has 20 years of establishment on Hex, and it's likely impossible for Hex to steal much away from MtG. Hex's success is going to hinge on creating new markets

Mr.Funsocks
06-24-2013, 11:25 AM
Also, how fast are the games, There needs to be a mode that lets people sit down for very small amounts of time and play a game, 5-15 minutes tops to really get mass interest. Basically there needs to be some sort of mini game that is fun to replay, and entertaining that will attract people when they don't have time to put into a 45 minute card game.


Well, the average PvP match is going to be 15-20 minutes from the way the streams look. But being able to play a few turns, then pick up where you left off will help. I agree though, a 5-10 minute "toilet game" (I really don't understand the people who bring smartphones in to toilets, what are they eating that it takes them more than a minute on the can?) would do wonders.

Yoss
06-24-2013, 11:31 AM
If we assume that, maybe half the MtG players would jump ship, sell off their collections, and invest it all in Hex, Hex suddenly becomes a massive, smashing success (well... assuming Hasbro's numbers are worth anything). But the investment most players have, financially, in a TCG is probably prohibitive to them leaving it. I would guess it likely wouldn't happen unless MtG really starts dying out (which it likely won't, it's growing).
Well, I'm a ship-jumper from MTG. I switched because the ongoing cost of Hex will be less than half that of MTG. Yeah, I have to repay the start-up cost for Constructed, but Drafting is just pure "profit" (less loss of my fun money). I was spedning almost $100 a month on MTG, so $500 bucks for a kickstart seemed like a steal, and even without the KS Hex is a much better deal, assuming it can build a large enough following. It's a self-reinforcing cycle either way. Either success breeds more success and Hex becomes the next MTG (my hope), or not enough people switch over to Hex and it slowly dies out.

This is one reason why I think the RMT impelementation is going to be so important; the MTG crowd expects their product to retain value over time in the real world.

(Stopped reading at this quote, sorry if I missed something in between.)

Brumby66
06-24-2013, 11:33 AM
There are 2 things that can make this explode. Tablet support is already confirmed, so that number can take off. Another possibility I see is incorporating the game into hobby/card shops. If they can get this digital game to explode in the physical scene as well then I can see it taking off. Most MMO's are limited because they don't play we'll in this aspect, but Hex can absolutely go viral here. We'll see what Crypto has planned.

maniza
06-24-2013, 11:35 AM
I think that asuming that there are 15 000 players paying already before the game is even out its an important number. Tablets are a big market that is growing every year, asuming that for every paying costumer they can find 10 to try it for free at launch, if marketing is not horrible there will be 150 000 to start. That the least amount of players at launch. Could get up to 500 000. From there it could get realy big, if it becomes a popular e-sport and the pve section is constantly updated. I expect 10 000 players pvping at any time soon after launch. I know my numbers sound way to optimistic BUT think about this. If i had told you a digital tcg kickstarter would reach 2.5 mill you would had just laughed at me. I know its diferent and basing this kinds of predictions ks success is ridiculous, only time will tell. But i think we are on to a big hit with this one

Yoss
06-24-2013, 11:36 AM
I'd like to see Hex "boosters" on the shelf next to MTG at my local shops.

Gwaer
06-24-2013, 11:41 AM
The problem that people need to account for in their own reasoning is that we all have http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-purchase_rationalization as well as many other cognitive biases since we're basically discussing things in a vacuum full of people that a positively inclined to hex.

blakegrandon
06-24-2013, 11:42 AM
I'd like to see Hex "boosters" on the shelf next to MTG at my local shops.

Sadly that'll never happen. The best one could hope for would be an update to the classic "shop" type business.

I used to be in the gaming business and the problem is that most have never adapted to changing trends, I have an idea of what I'd love to see in a gaming store in today's world but it would be extremely expensive to pull off.

At best you'll see "Booster boxes" in the form of a gift card that can be redeemed.

Gwaer
06-24-2013, 11:45 AM
Sadly that'll never happen. The best one could hope for would be an update to the classic "shop" type business.

I used to be in the gaming business and the problem is that most have never adapted to changing trends, I have an idea of what I'd love to see in a gaming store in today's world but it would be extremely expensive to pull off.

At best you'll see "Booster boxes" in the form of a gift card that can be redeemed.

Sorry why do you think a card arted up to look like a booster, possibly even in plastic that contains a code you can enter to get a booster in hex can never happen?

Brumby66
06-24-2013, 11:47 AM
Sadly that'll never happen. The best one could hope for would be an update to the classic "shop" type business.

I used to be in the gaming business and the problem is that most have never adapted to changing trends, I have an idea of what I'd love to see in a gaming store in today's world but it would be extremely expensive to pull off.

At best you'll see "Booster boxes" in the form of a gift card that can be redeemed.

I think that's what he meant. I would like to see the game handled more like the game cards you use to enter tournaments. You become a player of that store and that store gets perks depending on their success. The perks could be alt art cards, reduced prices, special prizes, invites, etc.

HyenaNipples
06-24-2013, 11:48 AM
It would likely be more like those little gift-card type things you see in BestBuy. Next to your League of Legends points, Facebook coins, and Microsoft points- you'll have a little card that says 1000 Platinum for Hex TCG or some such.

Gwaer
06-24-2013, 11:51 AM
wow 1000 dollar gift cards... If i'm ever robbing a store I'm headed straight for the stack of those.

On a serious note, you could just as easily have them give you straight up boosters rather than platinum, heck, they could even give you specific boosters, So the entire stack of them might be effectively a "box". Since they're using some sort of virtual card sheet to distribute packs or some such, have the pack of booster cards be it's own set of boxes just like if you were to buy the real thing, can buy the whole shebang or split it up for individuals depending on how serious you were about hunting the legendaries.

tautologico
06-24-2013, 11:53 AM
The problem that people need to account for in their own reasoning is that we all have http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-purchase_rationalization as well as many other cognitive biases since we're basically discussing things in a vacuum full of people that a positively inclined to hex.

That's what I try to tell people when things become overly optimistic, but many don't really get it.

jai151
06-24-2013, 11:53 AM
wow 1000 dollar gift cards... If i'm ever robbing a store I'm headed straight for the stack of those.

You do know gift cards are activated at the register, right? =P

Gwaer
06-24-2013, 11:55 AM
You do know gift cards are activated at the register, right? =P
Depends on the gift cards. Some aren't...

(please make your cards activated at the register CZE so I do not have to turn to a life of crime.)

((Also I would love to throw down $1000 cash in a CVS buying one of your game cards, so go for that))

blakegrandon
06-24-2013, 11:55 AM
Sorry why do you think a card arted up to look like a booster, possibly even in plastic that contains a code you can enter to get a booster in hex can never happen?

While I see there being some kind of boosters/booster boxes for sale, it's not in the card store's best interest to have it go digital.

A lot of revenue from card stores come from having people play games in the store, it comes from having people in daily in order to build a customer base. Back when I was in the industry we would make significant amounts from the house cut when people sold cards to each other(it was on an honor system and people genuinely respected it for the most part), from tournament fees, and from people needing sleeves, dice, and cards.

All of that revenue is eliminated when it goes digital, which means yes, the card store could sell boosters, but the split would have to be enough to make it worth the card store's space.

That's why I doubt you'll see much physical product in a traditional card store, a more updated store could offer Hex tournaments but it would be a significantly different model from the traditional card store, it would essentially be an internet cafe that hosts tournaments and charges per or per tournament.

I think distribution is going to be the trickiest part of Hex, Yes it's purely digital and the idea that it'll go straight to the consumer is great until you realize that brick and mortar and online stores account for the majority of game sales.

Brumby66
06-24-2013, 11:58 AM
While I see there being some kind of boosters/booster boxes for sale, it's not in the card store's best interest to have it go digital.

A lot of revenue from card stores come from having people play games in the store, it comes from having people in daily in order to build a customer base. Back when I was in the industry we would make significant amounts from the house cut when people sold cards to each other(it was on an honor system and people genuinely respected it for the most part), from tournament fees, and from people needing sleeves, dice, and cards.

All of that revenue is eliminated when it goes digital, which means yes, the card store could sell boosters, but the split would have to be enough to make it worth the card store's space.

That's why I doubt you'll see much physical product in a traditional card store, a more updated store could offer Hex tournaments but it would be a significantly different model from the traditional card store, it would essentially be an internet cafe that hosts tournaments and charges per or per tournament.

I think distribution is going to be the trickiest part of Hex, Yes it's purely digital and the idea that it'll go straight to the consumer is great until you realize that brick and mortar and online stores account for the majority of game sales.

It's not hard to support the shops. They could kick back a percentage of sales from people registered to the store. The stores can also make a bit from hosting tournaments.

Gwaer
06-24-2013, 12:00 PM
Also, all of my local gaming shops carry game cards for many digital games. At least every one of them that I frequent regularly.

Gwaer
06-24-2013, 12:02 PM
It's not hard to support the shops. They could kick back a percentage of sales from people registered to the store. The stores can also make a bit from hosting tournaments.
Local hex tournaments are really going to be tricky. I would love for there to be private leagues built in so a gaming shop can start up a secret league only for people that go to the shop with entry codes, possibly single use entry codes. It could have special prizes or even a real money buy in at the shop to get access to the code. Then people can play either at home on their pc or on a tablet at the shop.

wildcard
06-24-2013, 12:03 PM
I quite like the idea of a card shop hosting a tournament Internet cafe style. CZE could offer all kinds of support by having the tournament tied to a password that the shop owner hands out, CZE can know exactly how many people have shown up to participate and provide product for prizes, promo cards (ala Friday Night Magic), or percentages from sales made during the tourney between your matches, etc.

dogmod
06-24-2013, 12:05 PM
I think the people who are being pessimistic are thinking along the lines of "paying players at launch." As opposed to players logging in to play hex at launch. I can guarantee you that I will be signing every single one of my video/card playing friends as well as random family members up to play this (so long as it is polished and the tutorial experience is sharp) in or around launch. Now a lot of them won't stick but a few will. Hell I already ganked some of them into the kickstarter.

25,000 is a really low number. 1,000,000 at 1 year seems like a really big number. I say at least 100k people try it in the first month and by 1 year 100k people logged in once every two weeks with a high side being 250k. (I will still dream about millions though)... And honestly this says nothing about actual paying players which I have no idea about.

Brumby66
06-24-2013, 12:09 PM
Local hex tournaments are really going to be tricky. I would love for there to be private leagues built in so a gaming shop can start up a secret league only for people that go to the shop with entry codes, possibly single use entry codes. It could have special prizes or even a real money buy in at the shop to get access to the code. Then people can play either at home on their pc or on a tablet at the shop.

In my view it wouldn't be much different than a normal card game in the tournament scene. Here Goes:

You are registered to the last shop that you entered a tournament with. In order to support the shop, CZE kicks back 10 percent of all purchases by registered members of the store. CZE can also offer all the perks that physical TCG's. Because CZE doesn't pay for a physical production cost they can afford to give some margin to the shops. The competitive scene alone can increase sales. Win-win for CZE and the shops. This will also play into the promotion of hex as an esport. I see no reason not to have a program like this.

Hibbert
06-24-2013, 12:11 PM
The structure of Hex means it will be targeting a couple of different demographics at once: the general TCG market, a more specialized electronic TCG market, the F2P MMO market, and the casual gaming app store market. While I'm sure most of us on these forums fall into one of the first two categories, I think the vast majority of new accounts will come from the later.

I think Hex has the biggest opportunity to really shake up the TCG market since the WoWTCG came out. Lots of people are looking for a non-MTG game, but the lack of players and tournaments in any given area really hurts the chances of any one particular game reaching critical mass. Like I said earlier, WoWTCG almost made it and is still a pretty popular option, but it's still an also ran compared to MTG. The global nature of Hex gives it a huge advantage. It might be a challenge to convince paper TCG players to invest in an electronic game, but if CZE can manage to deliver on cash prizes for the world championships, I think that might really help.

As far as the electronic TCG market goes, Hex is gonna clean up. The biggest player in the market is MTGO, and it is horrible. Most of it's client upgrades have been regressions and the pricing structure is tied to a paper game. While there are definitely people that will stick with it, I see a massive exodus of the more casual players of MTGO coming. Too bad this market is already a niche inside a niche.

It's the second two markets I listed that I think a lot of people are underestimating. The F2P market is just huge. A couple of kid focused freemium MMO's broke 20 million accounts in just about 2 years each: Free Realms (http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/10/20/free-realms-clocks-20-million-players-over-two-and-a-half-years/), Wizard 101 (https://www.wizard101.com/game/press/20-million-wizards). While unique accounts don't necessarily mean anything in terms of maximum concurrent players or paying customers, that's still a huge number.

As far as the app market goes, look at something like Puzzle and Dragons (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/appsblog/2013/may/14/puzzle-and-dragons-gungho-revenues). 13 million players, 3.8 million in DAILY revenue. Like a TCG, the majority of it's revenue comes from people buying chances at a chase rare. I'm not saying that Hex could end up with anything close to that, but there is a giant market of people on Android/iOS that are willing to shell out big bucks on virtual collectables.

So based on my half-assed analysis of those markets, here are my totally pulled out of nothing estimates.


Open beta/soft launch: 40k accounts, maybe 5k peak users on a good day.
Release: 80k accounts, 10k-15k peak users
Two years out: 5-6 million accounts, maybe around 500k of which play semi-regularly, and a peak concurrent user level of around 25-30k


I think I'll bookmark this thread, and in two years come back and look at it, to see how close we all were to reality.

Mr.Funsocks
06-24-2013, 01:04 PM
I think I'll bookmark this thread, and in two years come back and look at it, to see how close we all were to reality.

omg that's a splendid idea. We should place bets on it too! I bet 2 spectral lotuses my numbers are right!

Anyways, I think card shops could easily help host tournaments if CZE can make it work. A "private" local tournament for your card shop. The card shop has, say, 10 tablet PCs hanging out that they bring out for the match, you sit across from your actual opponent, just holding a tablet, log into your account, join the tournament, the shop gets special deals/goodies/portion of revenue for hosting, and you still have the same card shop community, and venues, that the current TCG crowd enjoys. Only they can ALSO interact with the much greater internet crowd, satiating those of us who don't have a local card shop.

jai151
06-24-2013, 01:07 PM
This would also be a great spot for the spectator feature, as you could have a store pc hooked up to a monitor showing the battlefield while the two finalists played

tautologico
06-24-2013, 01:19 PM
Lots of hope for the F2P side and casual players... but these players have a lot to choose from. There are many good F2P games around and many good casual games around, why would they go for HEX? While HEX has a lot to offer on the digital TCG side (if it's as good as it seems to be it will be the better digital TCG around, no doubt), I don't see what it's offering on the F2P front that's so unique that players will flock to it.

Using clearly outlier cases like Puzzles and Dragons will take us nowhere, it's like saying "OMG look at how many copies Minecraft has sold! Clearly all indie games can sell as much", which is patently false. It's the same fallacy lots of companies fell for with MMOs, looking at the WoW playerbase and thinking they could get the same amount of people playing.

Mr.Funsocks
06-24-2013, 01:27 PM
Lots of hope for the F2P side and casual players... but these players have a lot to choose from. There are many good F2P games around and many good casual games around, why would they go for HEX? While HEX has a lot to offer on the digital TCG side (if it's as good as it seems to be it will be the better digital TCG around, no doubt), I don't see what it's offering on the F2P front that's so unique that players will flock to it.

A high strategy PvE TCG. That's unique. That's something that nothing else has. This is less about attracting the F2P crowd as it is about finding a new market that didn't know this was something they wanted to play. And guesses about how big that is are basically gonna be speculation (though I back mine up with numbers!).

tautologico
06-24-2013, 01:27 PM
Oh and about "Duels of the Planeswalkers sold 500k copies and it's not even a real TCG": I don't think casual players care if it's a "real" TCG or not. I don't think most casual gamers will stay with the game for long enough to really take notice of its strategic depth.

tautologico
06-24-2013, 01:32 PM
A high strategy PvE TCG. That's unique. That's something that nothing else has. This is less about attracting the F2P crowd as it is about finding a new market that didn't know this was something they wanted to play. And guesses about how big that is are basically gonna be speculation (though I back mine up with numbers!).

There are good strategy games though, and more coming. XCOM is going to be released for iOS, and turn-based strategy games are finding a home at the mobile market. There are also many card games coming to the mobile market and for a casual observer they're all "card games" (it's hard for an outside observer to understand the strategic depth "inside").

I'm not saying HEX won't find an audience among F2P/casuals/mobile gamers, just that I think it does not have as clear a case as it has in the digital TCG market.

jai151
06-24-2013, 01:37 PM
XCOM is going to be released for iOS

XCom is out for IOS. $20

dogmod
06-24-2013, 01:50 PM
Oh and about "Duels of the Planeswalkers sold 500k copies and it's not even a real TCG": I don't think casual players care if it's a "real" TCG or not. I don't think most casual gamers will stay with the game for long enough to really take notice of its strategic depth.

... Isn't the real point that 500k people on Xbox alone were willing to PAY money for a game with very similar play mechanics and less depth than the game that they are offering here for FREE... I think that should be the main point

ramseytheory
06-24-2013, 02:04 PM
I haven't heard of any tablet card games with a single player campaign anything remotely like what Hex is doing. If I had, I'd be playing them right now.

Banquetto
06-24-2013, 03:08 PM
I think we'll see a good start (couple of hundred thousand is very possible) but won't see real growth over time. New players coming in will balance players leaving, but that's all.

The new players post-launch who stick around will basically be the ones who enjoy the PvE. PvP is going to be incredibly unwelcoming for new players once the game is established, there will be such a population of established players who have an enormous knowledge, skill and card advantage over them, with no way to claw that back without spending large sums of money.

Mr.Funsocks
06-24-2013, 03:32 PM
I think we'll see a good start (couple of hundred thousand is very possible) but won't see real growth over time. New players coming in will balance players leaving, but that's all.

The new players post-launch who stick around will basically be the ones who enjoy the PvE. PvP is going to be incredibly unwelcoming for new players once the game is established, there will be such a population of established players who have an enormous knowledge, skill and card advantage over them, with no way to claw that back without spending large sums of money.

Draft/sealed tournaments are completely equal aside from skill, and constructed tournaments will likely rotate out sets, so new players would only have to compete with the latest set.

If your argument was at all true, MtG would not be still steadily increasing in popularity, 20 years after its release.

MoikPEI
06-24-2013, 03:55 PM
I think the issue of people not knowing about the game is a big one. No one else at work (approx 50, strong gaming culture) is stoked for the game. No one really knows what it is or why they should want to play it.

http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=hex%20tcg%2C%20path%20of%20exile&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
The link should show the comparison of Path of Exile versus Hex TCG. The search volume related to Hex TCG is a tenth of what Path of Exile's lowest was. Path of Exile hit 2,000,000 accounts in 3 months, but it a demonstrated peak level of interest roughly 100 times that of Hex TCG's peak thus far.

Promotion will be a big issue. Search Engine Optimization will likely be a factor (the website has no description in google, I take that to mean no SEO has been done and the top result was fluked into).

I really hope there's a referral rewards system. If there is, every person on my skype will be getting a link. That would probably be the best way to push some virality and insure a quick userbase burst.

Though, the level of interest seems to only be a third that of mtgo
http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=hex%20tcg%2C%20mtgo&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q

Mr.Funsocks
06-24-2013, 04:01 PM
Yeah, I think promoting it vigorously will be an issue, the card shop I sold off my MtG cards at, not even the employees had heard of it. Which also tells you how big its market COULD be: The existing markets for its game types haven't even heard of it yet, and it got 2.5 million dollars and 10k+ backers. But again, it's an if.

Shadowelf
06-24-2013, 04:35 PM
The structure of Hex means it will be targeting a couple of different demographics at once: the general TCG market, a more specialized electronic TCG market, the F2P MMO market, and the casual gaming app store market. While I'm sure most of us on these forums fall into one of the first two categories, I think the vast majority of new accounts will come from the later.

I think Hex has the biggest opportunity to really shake up the TCG market since the WoWTCG came out. Lots of people are looking for a non-MTG game, but the lack of players and tournaments in any given area really hurts the chances of any one particular game reaching critical mass. Like I said earlier, WoWTCG almost made it and is still a pretty popular option, but it's still an also ran compared to MTG. The global nature of Hex gives it a huge advantage. It might be a challenge to convince paper TCG players to invest in an electronic game, but if CZE can manage to deliver on cash prizes for the world championships, I think that might really help.

As far as the electronic TCG market goes, Hex is gonna clean up. The biggest player in the market is MTGO, and it is horrible. Most of it's client upgrades have been regressions and the pricing structure is tied to a paper game. While there are definitely people that will stick with it, I see a massive exodus of the more casual players of MTGO coming. Too bad this market is already a niche inside a niche.

It's the second two markets I listed that I think a lot of people are underestimating. The F2P market is just huge. A couple of kid focused freemium MMO's broke 20 million accounts in just about 2 years each: Free Realms (http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/10/20/free-realms-clocks-20-million-players-over-two-and-a-half-years/), Wizard 101 (https://www.wizard101.com/game/press/20-million-wizards). While unique accounts don't necessarily mean anything in terms of maximum concurrent players or paying customers, that's still a huge number.

As far as the app market goes, look at something like Puzzle and Dragons (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/appsblog/2013/may/14/puzzle-and-dragons-gungho-revenues). 13 million players, 3.8 million in DAILY revenue. Like a TCG, the majority of it's revenue comes from people buying chances at a chase rare. I'm not saying that Hex could end up with anything close to that, but there is a giant market of people on Android/iOS that are willing to shell out big bucks on virtual collectables.

So based on my half-assed analysis of those markets, here are my totally pulled out of nothing estimates.


Open beta/soft launch: 40k accounts, maybe 5k peak users on a good day.
Release: 80k accounts, 10k-15k peak users
Two years out: 5-6 million accounts, maybe around 500k of which play semi-regularly, and a peak concurrent user level of around 25-30k


I think I'll bookmark this thread, and in two years come back and look at it, to see how close we all were to reality.

Nicely said, these would have been my predictions too

maniza
06-24-2013, 04:50 PM
The structure of Hex means it will be targeting a couple of different demographics at once: the general TCG market, a more specialized electronic TCG market, the F2P MMO market, and the casual gaming app store market. While I'm sure most of us on these forums fall into one of the first two categories, I think the vast majority of new accounts will come from the later.

I think Hex has the biggest opportunity to really shake up the TCG market since the WoWTCG came out. Lots of people are looking for a non-MTG game, but the lack of players and tournaments in any given area really hurts the chances of any one particular game reaching critical mass. Like I said earlier, WoWTCG almost made it and is still a pretty popular option, but it's still an also ran compared to MTG. The global nature of Hex gives it a huge advantage. It might be a challenge to convince paper TCG players to invest in an electronic game, but if CZE can manage to deliver on cash prizes for the world championships, I think that might really help.

As far as the electronic TCG market goes, Hex is gonna clean up. The biggest player in the market is MTGO, and it is horrible. Most of it's client upgrades have been regressions and the pricing structure is tied to a paper game. While there are definitely people that will stick with it, I see a massive exodus of the more casual players of MTGO coming. Too bad this market is already a niche inside a niche.

It's the second two markets I listed that I think a lot of people are underestimating. The F2P market is just huge. A couple of kid focused freemium MMO's broke 20 million accounts in just about 2 years each: Free Realms (http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/10/20/free-realms-clocks-20-million-players-over-two-and-a-half-years/), Wizard 101 (https://www.wizard101.com/game/press/20-million-wizards). While unique accounts don't necessarily mean anything in terms of maximum concurrent players or paying customers, that's still a huge number.

As far as the app market goes, look at something like Puzzle and Dragons (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/appsblog/2013/may/14/puzzle-and-dragons-gungho-revenues). 13 million players, 3.8 million in DAILY revenue. Like a TCG, the majority of it's revenue comes from people buying chances at a chase rare. I'm not saying that Hex could end up with anything close to that, but there is a giant market of people on Android/iOS that are willing to shell out big bucks on virtual collectables.

So based on my half-assed analysis of those markets, here are my totally pulled out of nothing estimates.


Open beta/soft launch: 40k accounts, maybe 5k peak users on a good day.
Release: 80k accounts, 10k-15k peak users
Two years out: 5-6 million accounts, maybe around 500k of which play semi-regularly, and a peak concurrent user level of around 25-30k


I think I'll bookmark this thread, and in two years come back and look at it, to see how close we all were to reality.
Il bet 500 bucks he is right. O wait i already did...

hex_colin
06-24-2013, 05:47 PM
I think the issue of people not knowing about the game is a big one. No one else at work (approx 50, strong gaming culture) is stoked for the game. No one really knows what it is or why they should want to play it.

That's your fault! Go fix it... NOW! ;) /jest

nandus
06-24-2013, 05:53 PM
I can totally see 250k accounts 6 months into the game(from release), probably twice as much really. Then it would ramp up until hitting something like 3 to 4 million accounts. It will probably go beyond that eventually, if Hex is half as awesome as we think it will be, but I don't see it passing that number in the first 3 years really. Active accounts, those that log in at least once a week, will number initially be high; but most likely will drop below 10% after the first year. Three years down the road, I think I can picture 50k concurrent users logged into Hex. Nevertheless, even if the game manages to do only half the numbers I mentioned, it would still be awesome.

hex_colin
06-24-2013, 05:54 PM
The structure of Hex means it will be targeting a couple of different demographics at once: the general TCG market, a more specialized electronic TCG market, the F2P MMO market, and the casual gaming app store market. While I'm sure most of us on these forums fall into one of the first two categories, I think the vast majority of new accounts will come from the later.

I think Hex has the biggest opportunity to really shake up the TCG market since the WoWTCG came out. Lots of people are looking for a non-MTG game, but the lack of players and tournaments in any given area really hurts the chances of any one particular game reaching critical mass. Like I said earlier, WoWTCG almost made it and is still a pretty popular option, but it's still an also ran compared to MTG. The global nature of Hex gives it a huge advantage. It might be a challenge to convince paper TCG players to invest in an electronic game, but if CZE can manage to deliver on cash prizes for the world championships, I think that might really help.

As far as the electronic TCG market goes, Hex is gonna clean up. The biggest player in the market is MTGO, and it is horrible. Most of it's client upgrades have been regressions and the pricing structure is tied to a paper game. While there are definitely people that will stick with it, I see a massive exodus of the more casual players of MTGO coming. Too bad this market is already a niche inside a niche.

It's the second two markets I listed that I think a lot of people are underestimating. The F2P market is just huge. A couple of kid focused freemium MMO's broke 20 million accounts in just about 2 years each: Free Realms (http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/10/20/free-realms-clocks-20-million-players-over-two-and-a-half-years/), Wizard 101 (https://www.wizard101.com/game/press/20-million-wizards). While unique accounts don't necessarily mean anything in terms of maximum concurrent players or paying customers, that's still a huge number.

As far as the app market goes, look at something like Puzzle and Dragons (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/appsblog/2013/may/14/puzzle-and-dragons-gungho-revenues). 13 million players, 3.8 million in DAILY revenue. Like a TCG, the majority of it's revenue comes from people buying chances at a chase rare. I'm not saying that Hex could end up with anything close to that, but there is a giant market of people on Android/iOS that are willing to shell out big bucks on virtual collectables.

So based on my half-assed analysis of those markets, here are my totally pulled out of nothing estimates.


Open beta/soft launch: 40k accounts, maybe 5k peak users on a good day.
Release: 80k accounts, 10k-15k peak users
Two years out: 5-6 million accounts, maybe around 500k of which play semi-regularly, and a peak concurrent user level of around 25-30k


I think I'll bookmark this thread, and in two years come back and look at it, to see how close we all were to reality.

Awesome post!

Also, don't forget the impact of the "I used to play M:tG but I can't/don't want to play with the kids at the local game store crowd nowadays" or "the Corys" for short. I bet we'll find a lot of working adults who wish they had the time and place to play M:tG but it's not particularly accessible anymore. That's a lot of the reason I signed up. And... those people tend to have more money to burn than your average game store M:tG player, wich can only help a growing game.

The Hex population will definitely skew older (even if only slightly) than the M:tG population - I'll be interested to see if that translates to live tournaments, HexCon, etc.

Shaqattaq
06-24-2013, 05:55 PM
Many of us in the office spend far, far, far too much money on Puzzle and Dragons. =)

Kietay
06-24-2013, 06:21 PM
Sorry why do you think a card arted up to look like a booster, possibly even in plastic that contains a code you can enter to get a booster in hex can never happen?

Because the profit on that would be much much lower than selling something that costs fractions of a cent to create (digital). The only possible reason for doing that would be promotion and there are much more effective promotion methods.

Yoss
06-24-2013, 06:29 PM
I think the issue of people not knowing about the game is a big one. No one else at work (approx 50, strong gaming culture) is stoked for the game. No one really knows what it is or why they should want to play it.

http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=hex%20tcg%2C%20path%20of%20exile&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
The link should show the comparison of Path of Exile versus Hex TCG. The search volume related to Hex TCG is a tenth of what Path of Exile's lowest was. Path of Exile hit 2,000,000 accounts in 3 months, but it a demonstrated peak level of interest roughly 100 times that of Hex TCG's peak thus far.

Promotion will be a big issue. Search Engine Optimization will likely be a factor (the website has no description in google, I take that to mean no SEO has been done and the top result was fluked into).

I really hope there's a referral rewards system. If there is, every person on my skype will be getting a link. That would probably be the best way to push some virality and insure a quick userbase burst.

Though, the level of interest seems to only be a third that of mtgo
http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=hex%20tcg%2C%20mtgo&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
Might this be worth its own thread?

Yoss
06-24-2013, 06:31 PM
don't forget the impact of the "I used to play M:tG but I can't/don't want to play with the kids at the local game store crowd nowadays" or "the Corys" for short.
I'm a Cory, though I actually don't mind hanging out with the youngins.

purehybrid
06-24-2013, 06:46 PM
http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=hex%20tcg%2C%20path%20of%20exile&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
The link should show the comparison of Path of Exile versus Hex TCG. The search volume related to Hex TCG is a tenth of what Path of Exile's lowest was. Path of Exile hit 2,000,000 accounts in 3 months, but it a demonstrated peak level of interest roughly 100 times that of Hex TCG's peak thus far.

Promotion will be a big issue. Search Engine Optimization will likely be a factor (the website has no description in google, I take that to mean no SEO has been done and the top result was fluked into).

I really hope there's a referral rewards system. If there is, every person on my skype will be getting a link. That would probably be the best way to push some virality and insure a quick userbase burst.

Though, the level of interest seems to only be a third that of mtgo
http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=hex%20tcg%2C%20mtgo&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q


wow those google trends are kinda concerning ... :(

Gwaer
06-24-2013, 06:52 PM
Because the profit on that would be much much lower than selling something that costs fractions of a cent to create (digital). The only possible reason for doing that would be promotion and there are much more effective promotion methods.
...You do realize that virtually every digital only game is selling the equivalent of this in stores right? What makes it viable for league of legends for example, or nexxon, but not hex?

BongoBong
06-24-2013, 09:18 PM
wow those google trends are kinda concerning ... :(

Well to be fair its not really an analogous comparison since the huge jump in interest for PoE comes from when open beta is hitting, meaning its a game that is actually playable for people. While I don't think hex will drum up the same interest as PoE, I am guessing come open beta it will see a bigger jump then what we see there.

Shadowelf
06-25-2013, 03:43 AM
Many of us in the office spend far, far, far too much money on Puzzle and Dragons. =)

Then u know what it needs to be done to make hex equally successful...i mean a game with a so high daily revenue is an example to follow.

Facilier
06-25-2013, 03:53 AM
Well to be fair its not really an analogous comparison since the huge jump in interest for PoE comes from when open beta is hitting, meaning its a game that is actually playable for people. While I don't think hex will drum up the same interest as PoE, I am guessing come open beta it will see a bigger jump then what we see there.

Hex is also burdened with a more ambiguous title to make direct comparison of search trends less feasible. For example I have always searched for "hex mmo" rather than "hex tcg". I am sure there are others who searched with Hex ccg, or hex shards of fate, or hex Kickstarter. So the numbers may not be nearly as poor as that comparison indicates.

MoikPEI
06-25-2013, 05:11 AM
Hex is also burdened with a more ambiguous title to make direct comparison of search trends less feasible. For example I have always searched for "hex mmo" rather than "hex tcg". I am sure there are others who searched with Hex ccg, or hex shards of fate, or hex Kickstarter. So the numbers may not be nearly as poor as that comparison indicates.

Valid points. However, 'hex mmo' and 'hex ccg' don't have enough searches to rank.
http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=hex%20tcg%2C%20hex%20mmo%2C%20hex%20ccg% 2C%20hex%20shards%20of%20fate&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
'hex shards of fate' is about a third. Path of Exile also has its searches fractured, some people may just search 'poe' and that'll get mixed in with people searching for Edgar Allen. I'm going by the highest ranked search which would not be for something else.



Well to be fair its not really an analogous comparison since the huge jump in interest for PoE comes from when open beta is hitting, meaning its a game that is actually playable for people. While I don't think hex will drum up the same interest as PoE, I am guessing come open beta it will see a bigger jump then what we see there.

True, the biggest spike comes from Open Beta, but if we extend the timeframe, we se other spikes well prior (Open Beta Weekends?)
http://www.google.ca/trends/explore#q=hex%20tcg%2C%20path%20of%20exile&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q

Googolplex
06-25-2013, 07:13 AM
I... um... gave you my reasons? That was the point of this thread... Where're your reasons for release not even doubling the number of players in a F2P game that paid in a Kickstarter? 'cause while I may be optimistic, THAT is ridiculous.
Your numbers are so unrealistic its not even funny. Lets wait and see which numbers turns out to be true shall we ? :)

Hatts
06-25-2013, 07:25 AM
I like to use Game Center on an iOS device to help form my estimates. I found a post I made on the Shadow Era forums and looked at the numbers now. As of ~1 year ago they had ~400K total iOS installs with 3.7K playing that day and 13k playing that week. They released a new app with their 2nd set, it has about 2K players a day and 8k players a week with 60K total installs. At a guess iOS users make up half the total population (also available on Android, PC and MAC.) I think the poorer numbers now reflect an increase in competition in the iOS app store for CCGs. Unfortunately MMDoC doesn't use game center, it would also be a good comparison.

So for shadow era that's 1% of it's population playing daily and 3-4% playing weekly (ignoring everyone who didn't bother to get the new version.) I think Hex can do a lot better than this, the AI in Shadow Era is a joke and the pace of development is slow. Combined with some persistent bugs that force you to lose every 5th match I'm amazed it still has the numbers it does.

So my guesses for Hex? 1 million accounts after the first year, with 20K playing each day and 100K playing in a given week.

Deathfog
06-25-2013, 07:28 AM
Twitchtv is the key to getting the population up, there's nothing else similar on there yet. A strong Youtube presence is also very valuable early on.

dogmod
06-25-2013, 08:16 AM
Your numbers are so unrealistic its not even funny. Lets wait and see which numbers turns out to be true shall we ? :)

Rampant internet logic and arguing. :)

Shaqattaq
06-25-2013, 10:31 AM
Then u know what it needs to be done to make hex equally successful...i mean a game with a so high daily revenue is an example to follow.

There is a special place in hell for games that design and feature "Rainbow Keeper Dungeon with zombie team" which I'm doing at this very moment. But the fun, sure, I like the fun of the game.

Tiuvath
06-25-2013, 01:54 PM
wait what Rainbow Zombies with Bling? I probably read that wrong :eek:


;) anyways my own very very scientific estimate ranges from 100-250k after beta. Personally I think they could have 500k users after the first year, but thats a rather optimistic guess

I'll define a user here as someone who plays hex atleast 1h+ per week

Mr.Funsocks
06-25-2013, 04:55 PM
Your numbers are so unrealistic its not even funny. Lets wait and see which numbers turns out to be true shall we ? :)

And your numbers are so unrealistic it IS funny. 25 000 users? Lets use simple math (which is where I got my numbers...). If the average user spends 10$ a month (which is probably high, the vast majority of players in any F2P game buy nothing at all), 25 000 users would give... 250 000$ a month, or 3 million dollars a year. Corporate income tax is 34% in that bracket, and that knocks off 1 million$. Assume it takes 10 people with 50 000$ a year salaries to do things like be community managers/do marketing/deal with in-game problems, and another million or so in overhead from running the servers. And realistically, it's gonna take more than 10 people.

There's only 500 000$ a year left for any sort of continued development of the game, including the new sets, new PvE content, new tournament formats or other features, bug fixes, etc. Oh and do things like run HexCon and other big events. They've sunk already about a million a year into the game for 2 years. If they thought that was where it was headed, financially, they would just shut down the development right now, because that ain't gonna work.