View Full Version : Hexonomics Part 2 - The Effects of Mass Drafting

Mokog

06-29-2013, 08:21 PM

Howdy Everyone!

I have just released a new video on YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFVtpm2wSIE) that takes a look at the next extreme the beta economy can take and that is on mass drafting. Take a look and see how you might plan your Hex investment before beta. Maximize your purchasing decisions on release and be a little more prepared.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFVtpm2wSIE

As always I am working on increasing the quality of my Hex content. If you have any suggestions let me know! Also if you would like a copy of the base data send me a private message on these forums or in my contacts below.

~Mokog

Base Data Here (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2VaGm7VI44JSkx4RkJxNkduY0k/edit?usp=sharing) The file format is OpenOffice 3.4.1

Prism

06-29-2013, 10:46 PM

Not a bad video, probably should include a link to a google.doc with your calculations if anyone was curious

Good job though

Kietay

06-29-2013, 10:53 PM

You are some kind of amazing scientist. Good job!

funktion

06-29-2013, 10:53 PM

Wow dude, you packed a ton of information into such a short video! Once we know more about crafting, I'd be really interested to hear your thoughts about how that will effect the overall hexonomy, particularly considering the lack of set redemptions like in MTGO.

I'm definitely waiting anxiously to know more about crafting.

jaxsonbatemanhex

06-29-2013, 11:20 PM

Good vid Mokog; gonna have to rewatch it when I get home from Singapore in order to soak it in a bit more. :-P

Gorgol

06-29-2013, 11:47 PM

amazing

hammer

06-29-2013, 11:59 PM

I love this type of analysis. I am not sure how applicable it will actually be but the approach is very interest and others have stated there is lots of info in short video and we haven't seen anything similar so you are treading new ground. In addition to crackers and drafters I wonder what speculators will do with the low price of set 1 boosters will we see storage of unopened product for future gains and what level would this occur at to impact?

Patrigan

06-30-2013, 01:29 AM

Wait, first he says boosters will 69 cents and then later on he says that boosters will fall in the 1$ and 1.56$ range.

I am also very curious to the exact numbers and calculations, because he doesn't really explain where these numbers come from.

And how can VIP boosters actually affect the prize of draft boosters ina significant amount? You can only draft 1.44 times with VIP boosters PER MONTH. (52 weeks in a year, divided by 12 for an average per month, divided by 3 for the number required for a draft). Surely people who draft 6 times a day, will be unable to draft with just VIP boosters?

Lastly, I want to remark how this video will get people to think wrong. It has 0 calculation with Slacker Backers and non-kickstarter players, which will be buying all these cheap boosters from the AH quickly for their own drafts, or just for opening. So going by his numbers, the actual numbers will be higher. There could've at least been a disclaimer for this in the video. Considering this game will likely grow to at least twice the number of players, that will surely affect these numbers a lot.

All in all an intriguing video, but you can't just throw around numbers like that without giving actual calculations. And when making a video that just takes into account 1 scenario, please make sure that you also give a disclaimer to notify people which other factors will be at work in an actual possible scenario.

Edit: One side comment that will affect your calculations though: Drafts do not last 2.5 hours on average. Drafts will be single elimination. Taking into account an hour for drafting + deckbuilding. Since a true mathematician calculates with extremes, in the worst case scenario, a draft will last 4 hours (not counting downtime between matches). Best case scenario, it lasts 2 hours. (we're not counting raredrafters who don't play). That gives me a worst case weighted-average playtime of 3.75 hours. A best case scenario, where people concede as soon as the game starts won't happen, so an actual average is very difficult to calculate and is basically grasping wildly for numbers. (unless if you have a field test calculation, like Wizards might have done before. If that's where the number comes from, you can ignore this). But you can make the calculation with the best case ad then notify that the number will be a lot closer to the 3.75 because that's far more likely to happen.

Prism

06-30-2013, 01:46 AM

Drafts do not last 2.5 hours on average. Drafts will be single elimination. Taking into account an hour for drafting + deckbuilding. Since a true mathematician calculates with extremes...

Dont be so damn picky...

1 hour draft + deck build

1 hour for rounds (or 50 mins w/e)

3 possible rounds

4 people will have 1 round, 2 people will have 2 rounds, 2 people will have 3 rounds.

(4x1 + 2x2 + 2x3) / 8 + 1(deck building/draft) = 3.

There are tons of variables to consider. Unplug your butthole

jaxsonbatemanhex

06-30-2013, 02:03 AM

Just fyi, you don't take an hour to draft and deckbuild. You'll probably take half an hour max (20 mins to draft, 10 mins to deckbuild, finishing both ahead of time if everyone's done).

Mokog

06-30-2013, 05:22 AM

Wait, first he says boosters will 69 cents and then later on he says that boosters will fall in the 1$ and 1.56$ range.

I am also very curious to the exact numbers and calculations, because he doesn't really explain where these numbers come from.

And how can VIP boosters actually affect the prize of draft boosters ina significant amount? You can only draft 1.44 times with VIP boosters PER MONTH. (52 weeks in a year, divided by 12 for an average per month, divided by 3 for the number required for a draft). Surely people who draft 6 times a day, will be unable to draft with just VIP boosters?

Lastly, I want to remark how this video will get people to think wrong. It has 0 calculation with Slacker Backers and non-kickstarter players, which will be buying all these cheap boosters from the AH quickly for their own drafts, or just for opening. So going by his numbers, the actual numbers will be higher. There could've at least been a disclaimer for this in the video. Considering this game will likely grow to at least twice the number of players, that will surely affect these numbers a lot.

All in all an intriguing video, but you can't just throw around numbers like that without giving actual calculations. And when making a video that just takes into account 1 scenario, please make sure that you also give a disclaimer to notify people which other factors will be at work in an actual possible scenario.

Edit: One side comment that will affect your calculations though: Drafts do not last 2.5 hours on average. Drafts will be single elimination. Taking into account an hour for drafting + deckbuilding. Since a true mathematician calculates with extremes, in the worst case scenario, a draft will last 4 hours (not counting downtime between matches). Best case scenario, it lasts 2 hours. (we're not counting raredrafters who don't play). That gives me a worst case weighted-average playtime of 3.75 hours. A best case scenario, where people concede as soon as the game starts won't happen, so an actual average is very difficult to calculate and is basically grasping wildly for numbers. (unless if you have a field test calculation, like Wizards might have done before. If that's where the number comes from, you can ignore this). But you can make the calculation with the best case ad then notify that the number will be a lot closer to the 3.75 because that's far more likely to happen.

The numbers are derived from the publically available Kick starter numbers. These are not precise as players have auctioned away their tiers and I can not distribute all of the paypal backers. Paypal tier data has not been released.

VIP members will have some goodies per month but their greatest feature are the discounted packs. From my understanding you can buy boosters from the store at $1. Someone please check me on this. This will effect drafting long term.

Known slacker backers have been included but only from the point that the data was taken. Unregistered players are not accounted for and their effect would skew the most extreme possible data points, they have been discounted. I do have a fatal conceit in the calculations and that is boosters will be distributed evenly during the draft marathon to perform the mass drafts. That was easier to calculate with out diving into the statistical aspect of variable market activity I do not have data for yet. (maybe later after I get some live auction house data)

I believe your confusion about the different values is a place where I should have explained the beginning and end states. In the early beta the price per pack will be driven by the consumption of the kick starter boosters. Drafting will be the greatest effect. This is why in the early days prices will drive down. Once all kick starter boosters are consumed, cracked and drafted the price will rise. This progression is almost linear being defined by the number of drafts. I would account for new players buying and cracking boosters but in effect those never hit the full economy for booster packs as they are not traded again (that does/will effect card prices). That $2 can be discounted in this data set, but not all data sets. More simply a certain number of days after beta release the price will move from the $1.34/.69 range to $1.56/1 range.

To your edit, I took data for drafting time from an average MTG draft dataset I found on the web. If the draft times in Hex are significantly shorter this will actually plunge the price faster and shorten the term in which cheap boosters are available. For this data set it is more important that the drafts occur than their time frame. I included the 2.5 hour time frame to see if the free draft per week would have an effect on the numbers. The effect is there and measureable. It is just above significant in the short term. It's effect in the long term as player and draft count increases will become negligible to prices.

I do want to stress these numbers are for the initial plunge into beta. As the game explodes the human element can only be measured by the market prices from this side of the server. Now if CZE lets me have their weekly data trends at release (hint hint :-P) I can have firm numbers and more accurate trends. I doubt that will happen as it is valuable corporate data and shouldn't be leaked to the public as the success of this project is a make/break sort of thing for a corporation. I want the data anyway :-P

I will make my now onerously crazy spreadsheet pretty and get it posted to google docs for people to see. I know what I am going to be doing with my boosters but we will have new players joining the game and they should consume the surplus kick starter boosters while they can. These videos are to help give an early guideline and build excitement for the early beta. The deals are going to be then, numerically speaking :-)

Kroan

06-30-2013, 06:19 AM

- nvm -

Mokog

06-30-2013, 11:10 AM

Link to base data added to the OP.

DanTheMeek

06-30-2013, 11:52 AM

VIP members will have some goodies per month but their greatest feature are the discounted packs. From my understanding you can buy boosters from the store at $1. Someone please check me on this. This will effect drafting long term.

I've never heard that stated at any point, anywhere, so if you have a source I'd love to see it. That would actually be a HUGE change from the initially announced VIP system, which is simply that you get 1 pack a week. People value VIP packs at about 1 dollar since VIP costs 4 dollars per month and there are usually about 4 weeks in a month. If they also made packs 1 dollar to purchase if you were a VIP member as well, that would completely change the economy of the game... but actually might not be that bad of an idea on there part since it would alleviate people's concerns of people using dirty dealings to get multiple VIP accounts in order to effectively buy all their packs at a dollar then sell them on the auction house for over a dollar. It would, however, make the slacker backer a pretty underwhelming "value" so I would be really shocked if they were changing things to work this way. Again I actually think it would be a good move personally, but I don't see it happening and have not heard it was going to happen.

Mokog

06-30-2013, 12:00 PM

This is from Cory on Gamasutra. (http://gamasutra.com/blogs/ZoranCunningham/20130530/193030/Cryptozoic_Entertainment_on_designing_HEX_the_worl ds_first_digital_MMOTCG.php)

Cory: Specifically we're going to be selling booster packs and starter decks. Event tickets and entry fees into tournaments go right into the prize pool for winners to earn. All these will sell for far less than any existing physical TCG. We also have an optional VIP program that offers players things like booster packs at a discounted rate and access to a VIP tournament once a month, but it's something we came up with to cater to the more hardcore players. We're not going to be monetizing every little part of the gameplay experience.

It is possible that the $1 is an assumption I have seen thrown around. Still looking. VIP program will be boss though.

stiii

06-30-2013, 12:07 PM

Dont be so damn picky...

1 hour draft + deck build

1 hour for rounds (or 50 mins w/e)

3 possible rounds

4 people will have 1 round, 2 people will have 2 rounds, 2 people will have 3 rounds.

(4x1 + 2x2 + 2x3) / 8 + 1(deck building/draft) = 3.

There are tons of variables to consider. Unplug your butthole

Factor in the fact as soon as you lose you can do something else so rounds don't always last an hour you get about 2.5. Average is probably under 2.5 in fact.

Hatts

06-30-2013, 12:35 PM

You get 1 $1 booster a week, not the ability to buy as many as you want for $1. If you could there wouldn't be a massive thread about whether signing up your friends and family to get more cheap packs is abuse.

Icepick

06-30-2013, 01:38 PM

This is from Cory on Gamasutra. (http://gamasutra.com/blogs/ZoranCunningham/20130530/193030/Cryptozoic_Entertainment_on_designing_HEX_the_worl ds_first_digital_MMOTCG.php)

Cory: Specifically we're going to be selling booster packs and starter decks. Event tickets and entry fees into tournaments go right into the prize pool for winners to earn. All these will sell for far less than any existing physical TCG. We also have an optional VIP program that offers players things like booster packs at a discounted rate and access to a VIP tournament once a month, but it's something we came up with to cater to the more hardcore players. We're not going to be monetizing every little part of the gameplay experience.

It is possible that the $1 is an assumption I have seen thrown around. Still looking. VIP program will be boss though.

I think you are misinterpreting what he's said. The "boosters at a discounted rate" refers to the fact that your $4 VIP Subscription gets you 1 booster pack a week, which people typically translate to $1 for those ~4 boosters a month you get.

I personally still have an issue with the whole idea that boosters are going to be available that cheaply on the auction house. It's possible for a short time after release simply due to the massive number of boosters that backers are getting, but beyond that I very much doubt it. Even if people do list their boosters for cheaply (something else I doubt, since boosters have real monetary value), they will be bought up so quickly that most people will never see them at that price anyway.

Still, apparently I'm the only one here so thinks this way, so *shrug*

VIP members will have some goodies per month but their greatest feature are the discounted packs. From my understanding you can buy boosters from the store at $1. Someone please check me on this. This will effect drafting long term.

This is completely false. VIP gives no store discounts, rather you will be awarded 1 pack per week. And theoretically you are limited to a single VIP account. (There will be abuse, but if it's widescale, they'll just discontinue VIP)

stiii

06-30-2013, 01:57 PM

I personally still have an issue with the whole idea that boosters are going to be available that cheaply on the auction house. It's possible for a short time after release simply due to the massive number of boosters that backers are getting, but beyond that I very much doubt it. Even if people do list their boosters for cheaply (something else I doubt, since boosters have real monetary value), they will be bought up so quickly that most people will never see them at that price anyway.

Still, apparently I'm the only one here so thinks this way, so *shrug*

Well it depends what you mean by release. During the beta pretty much everyone is going to have a bunch of boosters and will need to get plat. While packs do have value they are only worth $2 if you would otherwise pay $2 for them. Given that people have 50-150 packs and didn't pay $2 or even close to $2 for them it seems pretty likely to me that some people will be selling them for much less.

Mokog

06-30-2013, 06:11 PM

Packs are worth what players will pay for them and the KS backers paid rock bottom prices. King backers paid the best price at $0.73 per booster AND get all the additional KS benefits. So why wouldn't a KS backer draft with their packs for as long as possible and buy up each card under the average draft value? Beta is going to have the most interesting economy for booster prices. The emergence of the "chase" cards will also have an interesting effect. This is speculation but I believe the data from alpha will solidify the most valuable legendary cards and they will only be "easily" available in beta as the packs are being cracked and drafted like mad. Their prices will just go up as more and more players enter the economy and the cards get "chased".

This is from Cory on Gamasutra. (http://gamasutra.com/blogs/ZoranCunningham/20130530/193030/Cryptozoic_Entertainment_on_designing_HEX_the_worl ds_first_digital_MMOTCG.php)

Cory: Specifically we're going to be selling booster packs and starter decks. Event tickets and entry fees into tournaments go right into the prize pool for winners to earn. All these will sell for far less than any existing physical TCG. We also have an optional VIP program that offers players things like booster packs at a discounted rate and access to a VIP tournament once a month, but it's something we came up with to cater to the more hardcore players. We're not going to be monetizing every little part of the gameplay experience.

It is possible that the $1 is an assumption I have seen thrown around. Still looking. VIP program will be boss though.

Cory was referring to the 1/week deal, not an unlimited supply. If the game is successful, we should assume that most boosters (long term) come from $2 retail and from prizes. Obviously in the short term, the KS rewards will be a big transient factor that puts downward pressure on prices.

Mokog

06-30-2013, 07:23 PM

One thing to keep in mind is that the KS boosters will only last so long as an effect in the booster economy. The tournament structure is the only function that will effect the booster market. Here is why. Boosters bought at retail are either cracked or drafted. Cracked packs have no effect on booster prices on the secondary market because they are already open. They will only effect the singles market. Drafted packs will follow a simple equation (8*3*$2+$8)/36= $1.56 This is the cost of the draft divided by the new boosters. In the aggregate the distribution of costs matters less than the end effect. Secondary market boosters will trend towards the most dominate effect, drafting.

If all the boosters won are used to draft again we get a new equation. (4*3*$2+$8)/(12+12) = $1.33 (new money/new packs). A full VIP free draft is even lower but as I am learning will be less frequent. Hexonomics (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ADZml7rMWk) and Part 2 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFVtpm2wSIE) are the results from this info for those who want the value with out the math. If you are a spread sheet junky I have that too (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2VaGm7VI44JSkx4RkJxNkduY0k/edit?usp=sharing).

First off, smart players who draft will never buy their packs at the draft table for $2. They will either: get them retail beforehand so that they have a shot at Primal, buy on the AH for best value, or bring them from their stash (KS rewards, VIP, etc).

Secondly, I'd like to remind folks that this analysis (steady state, not Beta) has already been done. From the Booster Price Analysis thread, linked in my sig:

Regarding Draft, it is a net booster sink (except for freebies, obviously). For every 24 boosters in, it spits out 12, leaving 12 packs that have to be acquired from other sources. The only infinite source is the $2 retail boosters. Therefore, in a world where every player was doing nothing but Draft and doing so in large volume, the booster price will trend upward towards retail value ($1.74 after removing Primals). Note that in this scenario the value of individual cards trends towards zero because the only thing of value is an unopened booster. This will then make it easier to get into Constructed, leading to...

Constructed, on the other hand, drags the booster price down because the only entry is $1 and no boosters, but it gives out 12 boosters in prizes. This means there are 12 boosters entering the market at a cost of $8 ($1 per player), which is $0.67 per booster.

In a world where just under 50% play Draft and just over 50% play Constructed, the Drafters provide singles (360 cards per draft) to the Constructors, who in turn supply boosters to the Drafters (12 packs per tourney, some of which will be Primal and drop out of the loop). The two form a perfect symbiosis where the only packs coming in are prize packs at $0.67 each.

Cracked packs have no effect on booster prices on the secondary market because they are already open.

(8*3*$2+$8)/36= $1.56

(4*3*$2+$8)/(12+12) = $1.33

You're breaking your own logic in those equations. The three entry packs into the draft cannot be counted as an output of the process because they've been opened. Only the prize packs have the chance to impact the booster market. In the scenario you're trying to addrees where all booster consumption is Draft and all booster production is $2 retail plus Draft prizes, the booster price trends up towards retail. See my quote/link above (which I revised based on your input in the other thread, thanks).

Mokog

06-30-2013, 08:32 PM

You're breaking your own logic in those equations. The three entry packs into the draft cannot be counted as an output of the process because they've been opened. Only the prize packs have the chance to impact the booster market. In the scenario you're trying to addrees where all booster consumption is Draft and all booster production is $2 retail plus Draft prizes, the booster price trends up towards retail. See my quote/link above (which I revised based on your input in the other thread, thanks).

I suppose you are correct. I left out the other reason why they must be discounted. Retail is the ultimate upper bound as no one will reasonably pay more than $2 per pack (until there is additional scarcity). The Draft is a truer lower bound that brings into account the won boosters. My bad. I am still working on communicating these ideas clearly and concisely. :-)

jgsugden

06-30-2013, 09:16 PM

Most of the KS (60% or so I'd guess) will be popped by the person that bought them. The rest will be sold, but the demand for boosters will far outshine supply. It better, or Crypt will go broke supporting a game with no cash influx. There will be dirt cheap boosters for a short time, but if the game is good, the secondary market for boosters is going to go very close to $2 before we hit expansion 1. It just won't be worth the effort to sell them for less.... and they could sell for far more 3 to 5 years from now.

keldrin

06-30-2013, 10:15 PM

I think you are misinterpreting what he's said. The "boosters at a discounted rate" refers to the fact that your $4 VIP Subscription gets you 1 booster pack a week, which people typically translate to $1 for those ~4 boosters a month you get.

I personally still have an issue with the whole idea that boosters are going to be available that cheaply on the auction house. It's possible for a short time after release simply due to the massive number of boosters that backers are getting, but beyond that I very much doubt it. Even if people do list their boosters for cheaply (something else I doubt, since boosters have real monetary value), they will be bought up so quickly that most people will never see them at that price anyway.

Still, apparently I'm the only one here so thinks this way, so *shrug*

The only people who will be selling their boosters cheaply, are people who may have put more money into the game than they can afford. And even then, since you are getting plat, not cash, may make such sales not happen.

But, yeah, I can potentially see someone who has put as much as they can into the game, selling a few packs, to generate the fee for booster drafting.

The cost to replace them, being higher than what they can get for them will steer most people away from it.

Add to that, I've heard a lot more people talk about buying cheap boosters, than thinking of selling them.

ShadowTycho

06-30-2013, 11:35 PM

Can someone work out why the weighted average value of packs is different from the predicted value of packs?

here is the mojo he uses.

total packs: 1,782,921

Totals pvp:

26,893,878

Cards per pack

Rarity

#

%

Price per card

Weighted Price per card

10

Commons

17,829,210

66.29%

.01

0.0066136013

4

Uncommons

7,131,684

26.52%

0.08

0.0214942042

0.909

Rares

1,760,885

6.55%

1.43

0.0934149571

0.090909

Legendary

172,099

.064%

14.27

0.0912892482

Average

.212812

if the average card is worth ~21 cents the average pack(composed of 15 average cards) is worth $3.19

now i could be totally crazy and wrong but i think this might have to do with the fact that Makog is calculating the value of packs based on the money spend on kickstarter tiers, which is not what the packs are worth but what was spent to acquire them. these are very different(although not uncomparable) numbers.

stiii

07-01-2013, 09:34 AM

Most of the KS (60% or so I'd guess) will be popped by the person that bought them. The rest will be sold, but the demand for boosters will far outshine supply. It better, or Crypt will go broke supporting a game with no cash influx. There will be dirt cheap boosters for a short time, but if the game is good, the secondary market for boosters is going to go very close to $2 before we hit expansion 1. It just won't be worth the effort to sell them for less.... and they could sell for far more 3 to 5 years from now.

I don't really see why people would open then all their boosters then want to buy more just to open even if they are only $1. The value of the cards open on average will be well under $1.

For example on magic onlnie boosters are $4 each and the average value of the cards in each pack is under $1, very roughly $0.66. There are plenty of cards that are 10+ but the majority are worth 0.05. This will be even worse for Hex in the first set the market will be absurdly flooded if people open one million plus packs

Can someone work out why the weighted average value of packs is different from the predicted value of packs?

here is the mojo he uses.

total packs: 1,782,921

Totals pvp:

26,893,878

Cards per pack

Rarity

#

%

Price per card

Weighted Price per card

10

Commons

17,829,210

66.29%

.01

0.0066136013

4

Uncommons

7,131,684

26.52%

0.08

0.0214942042

0.909

Rares

1,760,885

6.55%

1.43

0.0934149571

0.090909

Legendary

172,099

.064%

14.27

0.0912892482

Average

.212812

if the average card is worth ~21 cents the average pack(composed of 15 average cards) is worth $3.19

now i could be totally crazy and wrong but i think this might have to do with the fact that Makog is calculating the value of packs based on the money spend on kickstarter tiers, which is not what the packs are worth but what was spent to acquire them. these are very different(although not uncomparable) numbers.

I need a list of sources/equations, I think. It's not clear where some of these numbers come from.

1) Is the Legendary chance really 1-of-11? I thought it was 1-of-8.

2) The % column doesn't look quite right. If I assume the first column is correct, the % column should be 66.7%, 26.7%, 6.06%, and 0.606%, which is close to what's listed here, but far enough off that it can't just be a rounding error.

3) Where does price per card come from? Do we even know how many commons, uncommons, rares, and legendaries will be in Set 1? From there, do we know what the "print runs" will look like?

In short, I have no idea how to answer your question, ShadowTycho, except to say that I agree the numbers look fishy. Hopefully Mokog can enlighten us.

Mokog

07-01-2013, 04:58 PM

I need a list of sources/equations, I think. It's not clear where some of these numbers come from.

1) Is the Legendary chance really 1-of-11? I thought it was 1-of-8.

2) The % column doesn't look quite right. If I assume the first column is correct, the % column should be 66.7%, 26.7%, 6.06%, and 0.606%, which is close to what's listed here, but far enough off that it can't just be a rounding error.

3) Where does price per card come from? Do we even know how many commons, uncommons, rares, and legendaries will be in Set 1? From there, do we know what the "print runs" will look like?

In short, I have no idea how to answer your question, ShadowTycho, except to say that I agree the numbers look fishy. Hopefully Mokog can enlighten us.

1.The legendary ratio is used from the World of Warcraft TCG that CZE currently produces. I used the ratios from here. (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=2564) If CZE changes these ratios then I will need to do some updating.

2. It is a simple %. Total cards from that rarity/sum of all cards. Acceptable point of contention is what is the ratio for legendary cards. I am modeling the WoW TCG.

3.Price per card is calculated with (Estimated Booster price)/(number of cards at that rarity in the pack)/(rarity ratio).

Shadow has pulled cells from the base data I made available on Google docs. Shouldn't the weighted average also be equal to the total amount paid/total cards? which is $2,312,250.00/26,893,878 = $.09 ? Multiply it by 15 and you get $1.35 very close to the original number. It has been 10 years since my stat classes but that's what I have relearned from Wikipedia.

Edit** I am only Makog while I am in Boston. Other wise I like Mokog better :-P

1) OK, I was assuming the MTG ratio, mostly because I didn't know the WOWTCG ratio.

2) I think your numbers are off a bit. For example, 10/15 gives 66.7% not 66.29% and so on down the list.

3) What is the "rarity ratio" you refer to?

dogmod

07-02-2013, 03:28 PM

1) OK, I was assuming the MTG ratio, mostly because I didn't know the WOWTCG ratio.

2) I think your numbers are off a bit. For example, 10/15 gives 66.7% not 66.29% and so on down the list.

3) What is the "rarity ratio" you refer to?

Seems to only apply to rare/legendary where they will be 7/8 and 1/8

Xtopher

07-02-2013, 03:37 PM

Which is it? Are draft payouts going to be 12 boosters total or 36? There's a quote from Cory above that can be interpreted as meaning prizes out are equal to what goes in.

Edit: I guess it would be 12 or 32. I used the OP's calculation without checking the math.

Edit #2 (sorry): It could be as low as 4 boosters total in prizes if Cory doesn't consider the boosters you open as part of the fee.

Mokog

07-02-2013, 04:10 PM

Which is it? Are draft payouts going to be 12 boosters total or 36? There's a quote from Cory above that can be interpreted as meaning prizes out are equal to what goes in.

Edit: I guess it would be 12 or 32. I used the OP's calculation without checking the math.

Edit #2 (sorry): It could be as low as 4 boosters total in prizes if Cory doesn't consider the boosters you open as part of the fee.

If the prize pool is different then I will have some updating to do. I am glad we have alpha so I will have a chance to update the data and create a video before beta releases.

Mokog: please answer post 32.

Aethnen

07-05-2013, 08:15 PM

A great little video for such a quick little thing. Good work on both videos.

Mokog

07-05-2013, 08:53 PM

Mokog: please answer post 32.

Here is where I pulled the info from. (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=2564)

I will be looking at the fine print in the hex store and following up at the start of alpha and beta to get Hex specific information. You can bet your platinum I will do an update video. :-)

Banquetto

07-06-2013, 12:15 AM

The only people who will be selling their boosters cheaply, are people who may have put more money into the game than they can afford. And even then, since you are getting plat, not cash, may make such sales not happen.

But, yeah, I can potentially see someone who has put as much as they can into the game, selling a few packs, to generate the fee for booster drafting.

What about someone who simply wants to buy some specific singles, and would rather sell some of their pile of KS boosters, than spend more real $$ on plat? (and obviously would rather get the singles from the AH than open boosters and pray).

Mokog

07-06-2013, 08:57 AM

What about someone who simply wants to buy some specific singles, and would rather sell some of their pile of KS boosters, than spend more real $$ on plat? (and obviously would rather get the singles from the AH than open boosters and pray).

How platinum works is not fully disclosed. Cory has stated that the AH is not a real money AH but much of the analysis I am seen thus far has players assuming it is. Another point to investigate in alpha since our weekend updates have been lean recently.

Cory has confirmed that RMAH and RMT will not be implemented at release, but that he desires to add them eventually after working through the various legal issues.

Banquetto

07-06-2013, 02:38 PM

How platinum works is not fully disclosed. Cory has stated that the AH is not a real money AH but much of the analysis I am seen thus far has players assuming it is. Another point to investigate in alpha since our weekend updates have been lean recently.

Not sure what you're getting at here.

I'm saying that if you have a pile of boosters (from KS), and a desire for some singles, you may well go to the AH and sell your boosters and buy the singles, rather than buying plat in order to go shopping at the AH.

Is there anything not disclosed about how plat and the AH work that would affect that proposition?

I'm certainly not talking about a RMAH. Just giving a reason why a KS backer might sell boosters, other than "The only people who will be selling their boosters cheaply, are people who may have put more money into the game than they can afford."

How platinum works is not fully disclosed. Cory has stated that the AH is not a real money AH but much of the analysis I am seen thus far has players assuming it is. Another point to investigate in alpha since our weekend updates have been lean recently.

It's not a RMAH because transactions don't happen in $'s, and there is no way to get your $'s back out. You can buy plat for $'s, but you can't sell plat for $'s, and neither can you sell cards for $'s.

Plat is simply store credit, like MS Points or other such constructs. Plat will likely be sold in big enough chunks so that the transaction costs don't dominate the value of the sale.

Mokog

07-06-2013, 04:41 PM

It's not a RMAH because transactions don't happen in $'s, and there is no way to get your $'s back out. You can buy plat for $'s, but you can't sell plat for $'s, and neither can you sell cards for $'s.

Plat is simply store credit, like MS Points or other such constructs. Plat will likely be sold in big enough chunks so that the transaction costs don't dominate the value of the sale.

Store credit is real money spent. It will have a value and until I see the whole system I will hold off from analysis of the AH and the in game currency. Do know that Platinum is more than just Microsoft points as there is the AH involved making a real market. Microsoft points are a great example of store credit because their shop is a store front, not a place of bilateral exchange. The AH implies digital property exchanging hands, making it a market. The study of it will be absolutely fascinating and if designed well can make for a great case study.

Malicus

07-06-2013, 11:51 PM

Store credit is real money spent. It will have a value and until I see the whole system I will hold off from analysis of the AH and the in game currency. Do know that Platinum is more than just Microsoft points as there is the AH involved making a real market. Microsoft points are a great example of store credit because their shop is a store front, not a place of bilateral exchange. The AH implies digital property exchanging hands, making it a market. The study of it will be absolutely fascinating and if designed well can make for a great case study.

I and most others beliefs are based on the idea that the limiting factor of a RMAH is the cash out option rather than the buy in. Trading platinum is fine because once it is platinum it isn't real money because it is not redeemable for cash. If you hold peoples money rather than their platinum that is a whole other issue.

I did some supply side calculations under a perfect draft situation (every booster opened is drafted) in the booster price analysis thread using some basic assumptions and calculating the 50% booster return from drafting as doubling boosters over time this generates a slightly higher booster return but allows for cleaner calculations. It doesn't deal with the initial influx of KS boosters but offers an opportunity to make specific assumptions regarding the demand for boosters and the number of VIP to generate an average price weighted by demand.

I have been meaning to go back to it and make the % of drafters vs openers variable to generate a more accurate predictor but it is interesting anyway.

In the end people aren't as rational as numbers so the only truly accurate numbers we have is somewhere between $0 and $2 :)

ShadowTycho

07-07-2013, 06:49 AM

1.The legendary ratio is used from the World of Warcraft TCG that CZE currently produces. I used the ratios from here. (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=2564) If CZE changes these ratios then I will need to do some updating.

2. It is a simple %. Total cards from that rarity/sum of all cards. Acceptable point of contention is what is the ratio for legendary cards. I am modeling the WoW TCG.

3.Price per card is calculated with (Estimated Booster price)/(number of cards at that rarity in the pack)/(rarity ratio).

Shadow has pulled cells from the base data I made available on Google docs. Shouldn't the weighted average also be equal to the total amount paid/total cards? which is $2,312,250.00/26,893,878 = $.09 ? Multiply it by 15 and you get $1.35 very close to the original number. It has been 10 years since my stat classes but that's what I have relearned from Wikipedia.

Edit** I am only Makog while I am in Boston. Other wise I like Mokog better :-P

$2,312,250.00/26,893,878 = $.09 is the average, but its not he weighted average.

you get the weighted average by totaling up the probability that something will happen and multiplying it by the payoff of that roll.

as an example if i charge you a dollar to flip a coin and give you 1.50 if it comes up heads its a bad deal because you have a 50% chance of earning nothing and a 50% chance of earning 1.50

so:

.5*1.5+.5*0=.75

.75<1 so its a bad deal. but you might make money on it.

what i did before was take the amount you suggested each card would be worth per rarity on average and multiplied them by the probability you gave of that card being any given card.

so if rares are worth $10 and are 1% of cards they are 1% of a weighted average cards worth or $.10.

if you do this for all the rarities you get the value of the average card adjusted for rarity based on the prices you worked out. and thats about 21 cents.

now, packs are also rarity adjusted(since they have a limited probiblity of any card in them being of a rarity)

so while every card in a pack should not be worth what a average card is worth the pack of 15 crds as a whole should on average be worth what the rarity weighted averaged card pack of 15 cards is worth.

that's about 3.19 cents.

here is another way of looking at it, you theorize that a pack is worth between 1.40 and .60 cents.

however your math includes the idea that a rare is worth 1.43 cents.

every pack has a rare, or better, so packs MUST be worth more then the rare(since they are the rare plus cards.) therefore if the price of a rare is 1.43, then packs must be worth 1.44 or more.

again this is me checking your numbers against themselves, i am not positing what the price should be i'm just pointing out that your price scheme is internally inconsistent. I am pretty sure the reason it is internally inconsistent is that it does not account for the fact that the cards are priced against what the value of packs is, not what they were purchased for.

commons will almost certainly be worth a penny because the amount generated by people searching for rares and legionaries is staggering.

i doubt uncommon will be worth more then 20 cents on average. i don't have a good reasoning behind this beyond my own anecdotal experience, it may well fall down to a few pennies because of the unified marketplace in hex(a single auction house drops prices dramatically).

this means that a $2 pack from Cryptozoic will house 13 cents worth of commons and 60(?) cents worth of uncommon.

and this is where things get sticky because the real reason people open packs is for rares.

because of this, the average rare will be worth around about what the average pack is worth.

lets use the 1.30 price point you generated by meticulously totaling the kickstarter rewards.

and a legendary would be worth 10 times that if its a 1 in 10 chance, or 8 times that if its a 1 in 8.

$13 is easier for math tho. so that last card is worth 1.30 with a one in ten of 13, that's 1.1*1.3=1.43

so the price of a pack is .13+.60+1.43=2.16 using these numbers(which you shouldn't trust)

meaning opening a pack is worth 16 more cents then a closed pack. since this is above the Cryptozoic price ceiling, packs will go for as close to the price ceiling as possible. probably 1.99.

For those interested, there was an important update to the Booster Price Analysis thread today.

http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=25592

Mokog

07-08-2013, 06:24 PM

$2,312,250.00/26,893,878 = $.09 is the average, but its not he weighted average.

you get the weighted average by totaling up the probability that something will happen and multiplying it by the payoff of that roll.

as an example if i charge you a dollar to flip a coin and give you 1.50 if it comes up heads its a bad deal because you have a 50% chance of earning nothing and a 50% chance of earning 1.50

so:

.5*1.5+.5*0=.75

.75<1 so its a bad deal. but you might make money on it.

what i did before was take the amount you suggested each card would be worth per rarity on average and multiplied them by the probability you gave of that card being any given card.

so if rares are worth $10 and are 1% of cards they are 1% of a weighted average cards worth or $.10.

if you do this for all the rarities you get the value of the average card adjusted for rarity based on the prices you worked out. and thats about 21 cents.

now, packs are also rarity adjusted(since they have a limited probiblity of any card in them being of a rarity)

so while every card in a pack should not be worth what a average card is worth the pack of 15 crds as a whole should on average be worth what the rarity weighted averaged card pack of 15 cards is worth.

that's about 3.19 cents.

here is another way of looking at it, you theorize that a pack is worth between 1.40 and .60 cents.

however your math includes the idea that a rare is worth 1.43 cents.

every pack has a rare, or better, so packs MUST be worth more then the rare(since they are the rare plus cards.) therefore if the price of a rare is 1.43, then packs must be worth 1.44 or more.

again this is me checking your numbers against themselves, i am not positing what the price should be i'm just pointing out that your price scheme is internally inconsistent. I am pretty sure the reason it is internally inconsistent is that it does not account for the fact that the cards are priced against what the value of packs is, not what they were purchased for.

commons will almost certainly be worth a penny because the amount generated by people searching for rares and legionaries is staggering.

i doubt uncommon will be worth more then 20 cents on average. i don't have a good reasoning behind this beyond my own anecdotal experience, it may well fall down to a few pennies because of the unified marketplace in hex(a single auction house drops prices dramatically).

this means that a $2 pack from Cryptozoic will house 13 cents worth of commons and 60(?) cents worth of uncommon.

and this is where things get sticky because the real reason people open packs is for rares.

because of this, the average rare will be worth around about what the average pack is worth.

lets use the 1.30 price point you generated by meticulously totaling the kickstarter rewards.

and a legendary would be worth 10 times that if its a 1 in 10 chance, or 8 times that if its a 1 in 8.

$13 is easier for math tho. so that last card is worth 1.30 with a one in ten of 13, that's 1.1*1.3=1.43

so the price of a pack is .13+.60+1.43=2.16 using these numbers(which you shouldn't trust)

meaning opening a pack is worth 16 more cents then a closed pack. since this is above the Cryptozoic price ceiling, packs will go for as close to the price ceiling as possible. probably 1.99.

K so everyone does not have to take our words for it. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean) The link is a quick primer on weighted averages.

The values are calculated very simply. Total pack price is KS money/calculated normal boosters $2,312,250/1,782,921 = 1.30

The distribution of cards takes into account the 10015 primal packs creating more rare and legendary cards into the pool. Using that weighted average gives you $ .21. We do not yet know what the proc rate of a Primal pack is and that is not factored into the price per card. That takes the average price paid per booster $2,312,250/1,782,921 = 1.30 and divided by cards per pack and divides by rarity (based on the wow tcg). Those are the values in the Hexonomics video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ADZml7rMWk). And Hexonomics 2 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFVtpm2wSIE)

The data points are not necessarily out of line as one takes into account primal packs and the other breaks out the average booster price. If anything the weighted average you have found shows the price effects of introducing primal packs at the start. Primal packs elevate the weighted average of a booster significantly. In essence the reason the numbers are different is because one is based on expected cards (from normal and primal packs) and the other is price based on average booster cost (not accounting for primals). Yay math and spread sheets. Took me long enough to figure that out. Sorry for the wait and confusion in the mean time.

ShadowTycho

07-08-2013, 08:39 PM

K so everyone does not have to take our words for it. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_arithmetic_mean) The link is a quick primer on weighted averages.

The values are calculated very simply. Total pack price is KS money/calculated normal boosters $2,312,250/1,782,921 = 1.30

The distribution of cards takes into account the 10015 primal packs creating more rare and legendary cards into the pool. Using that weighted average gives you $ .21. We do not yet know what the proc rate of a Primal pack is and that is not factored into the price per card. That takes the average price paid per booster $2,312,250/1,782,921 = 1.30 and divided by cards per pack and divides by rarity (based on the wow tcg). Those are the values in the Hexonomics video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ADZml7rMWk). And Hexonomics 2 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFVtpm2wSIE)

The data points are not necessarily out of line as one takes into account primal packs and the other breaks out the average booster price. If anything the weighted average you have found shows the price effects of introducing primal packs at the start. Primal packs elevate the weighted average of a booster significantly. In essence the reason the numbers are different is because one is based on expected cards (from normal and primal packs) and the other is price based on average booster cost (not accounting for primals). Yay math and spread sheets. Took me long enough to figure that out. Sorry for the wait and confusion in the mean time.

yes that makes sense now.

how do you account for rare cards being worth more than unopened packs though?

every pack has a rare, so they are at least worth the rare.

Mokog

07-08-2013, 08:52 PM

it is because you are not guaranteed a rare in every pack. Legendary cards replace the rare in the wow tcg. So 1 in 11 packs is legendary in this model but 10 in 11 are rare. Since we divide by a number smaller than 1, we have an known rare is worth more than a pack. From that point forward the human element takes over with chase rares and the like. I am sure I will cover that in a future hexonomics.

Xtopher

07-08-2013, 10:35 PM

Most likely the majority of rares will be junk rares, worth much less than a pack of cards, if they're even worth anything. Think about it. If every pack had a rare worth more than a pack all you'd have to do is crack one pack of cards and you'd be able to accumulate infinite packs.

Mokog

07-09-2013, 04:15 AM

Most likely the majority of rares will be junk rares, worth much less than a pack of cards, if they're even worth anything. Think about it. If every pack had a rare worth more than a pack all you'd have to do is crack one pack of cards and you'd be able to accumulate infinite packs.

Don't forget that we are looking at the initial beta economy and the estimated price is still far under retail. The reason you can not go infinite is that as you sell your rares and open more packs you increase the volume of rares in the system lowering the over all value of the rare and increasing the value of the pack. At the initial state you can do calculations that as the system starts will either prove or disprove. The human element of valuation Playablility, looks, perceived value will kick in very early in this process. That will take this average per rare and spread it along some form of distribution. That is why this will be fascinating to watch as informed individuals bring their knowledge and skills to a brand new market.

~ Mokog

ShadowTycho

07-09-2013, 07:35 AM

it is because you are not guaranteed a rare in every pack. Legendary cards replace the rare in the wow tcg. So 1 in 11 packs is legendary in this model but 10 in 11 are rare. Since we divide by a number smaller than 1, we have an known rare is worth more than a pack. From that point forward the human element takes over with chase rares and the like. I am sure I will cover that in a future hexonomics.

legendaries are worth more then rares though,

not being guaranteed a rare by saying you get a legendary instead does not decrease the value of the pack, but increases it.

packs cannot be worth less then the average value of a rare.

this happened in magic the gathering for a few sets, the value of chase rares in the set pulled up the average value of the pack so high that opening packs was profitable(you just opened the pack sold the rare and bought a new pack keeping all the other cards.)

Mokog

07-09-2013, 03:44 PM

That could be the case for the early packs on the AH. CZE is selling digital boosters and Platinum will only come from putting additional money into the system. That type of cycle would accelerate the consumption of early packs and push players to buy retail packs for cracking and drafting.

Packs can be worth less than the average value of the rare if the supply of packs is greater than the guarantee of rares. the rarity ratio is 10/11 (.90909) and since that is < 1 it increases the initial price for a rare. I could put an artificial ceiling on the data but those first few days will be a frenzy of activity possibly busting up the initial calculations. They could also follow the linear trends. There is even the possibility of an explosive beta launch pulling the value of boosters right up to retail pricing. If that happens drafting will be the most profitable thing in the system.

Tell you what, if CZE can generate enough buzz at Gen-Con to have lines around the floor waiting to play Hex we all will have to revise projections and strategies.

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