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loopholist3
09-05-2013, 02:34 PM
So I got board waiting for the ability to actually do a draft, and spent a decent amount of time on a draft simulator. After I had done a decent amount of drafts, I started to realize something. A lot of the currently announced rares and legendaries are really bad for drafting.

I basically mentally divided the rares into 3 categories. The first category was cards that would always be bad in draft, this includes cards like Sliver of the Immortal Spear and Time Bug. The second was cards that are only good if the deck is being built around it, this included cards like Endbringer and Doppelgadget. This category is important because these cards aren't good unless you got them in the first pack, as you would probably do not have the time to get the cards necessary to incorporate them into your deck. The final category was everything else.

The final, highly subjective numbers, are 13 rares in the first category and 16 in the second. Now with the 71 rares announced and the fact that there are 8 players in a draft, then about 1.5 players will receive a bad rare in their first pack every game. A further 3.2 players will receive a bad rare in the second pack and 3.2 again on the third pack. That means that there will be about 7.9 bad rares every game. This number does not include rares that are naturally bad, only rares that are made bad by the draft format. For example, I don't think Chaos Key will ever be good, but it is not included in any of these numbers.

Now with 350 cards in the first set, we can't be missing out on that many rares. Now the main problem I have. I feel this abundance of "unchoosable" rares is going to lead to an abundance of rare drafters. This will cause a lack of fun to be generated by people who want to draft for the fun of drafting, that is the fun of making a deck from a limited set of cards and testing that deck against other players who are choosing from the same set. Does this seem like a problem to anybody else?

jaxsonbatemanhex
09-05-2013, 02:49 PM
This doesn't seem any different from Magic really. You have your rares that are good in limited, your rares that are good in constructed, your rares that are good in both, and your rares that are good in neither. If people want to rare draft so be it, but IMO it's unwise to just take a card because it's rare - you want to take a card if it's actually worth enough to offset your decreased (so prob slightly less than the cost of a pack on the AH).

At the end of the day, anyone who drafts based on rarity instead of card power in a draft environment isn't playing to win (the draft anyway, you could make the argument that they're playing to win the 'value game').

Also, Endbringer doesn't need to be built around though. I mean, there are commons and uncommons I'd still take over it, but if I ended up with it I'd be running it in a blood/x deck regardless of what other troops I had. He's on curve, with upside. Time Bug is also playable in many decks, but is rarely going to be a first pick.

hacky
09-05-2013, 02:51 PM
It's a non-issue. Competitive drafters don't care if someone wants to rare-draft bad cards. If the pack has a bad rare, a drafter will pick a bomb uncommon or common. If the pack has a good rare, it'll be first-picked anyway.

Icepick
09-05-2013, 03:24 PM
It's also worth noting that a good number of these "bad" cares are classed as Rare specifically so they don't turn up in limited formats all the time. If (for example) Head Games was Common and showed up 3 or 4 times or more in every Draft, don't you think you that's worse than it turning up in only 30% of Drafts at all as it does being a Rare?

felmare
09-05-2013, 03:26 PM
Now with 350 cards in the first set, we can't be missing out on that many rares. Now the main problem I have. I feel this abundance of "unchoosable" rares is going to lead to an abundance of rare drafters.
wait what?
people will draft to pick bad rares? wtf? your saying people will draft to grab the sh*t rares for $? who cares if they are gonna draft bad cards take your wins and take packs...

Maphalux
09-05-2013, 03:30 PM
Yeah, drafts are won on the backs of good commons and uncommons. Getting a bomb rare is awesome, but you can't rely on it. If a person on either side of me wants to rare draft, I'm all for it. It means better cards getting passed to me and a deck that is more likely to go the distance.

HyenaNipples
09-05-2013, 04:15 PM
I'll probably end up snagging strong constructed rares in drafts if I get the opportunity, but that's because I'm also using Limited as a method to build my collection. Though as a strong Johnny player, I anticipate making a few bad picks just to get my hands on a playset of cards which catch my fancy.

This makes the competitive Spikes happy because it gives them increased odds of victory, and I walk away happy because I got some cool cards to add to my collection. Everyone wins.

Leingod
09-05-2013, 05:51 PM
5/5 for 5 that gives itself rage isn't exactly a slouch and I imagine I'd first pick that on many occasions. Chaos key also gives you some nice non-troop removal which could be key (heh). Also, as somebody else pointed out, some rares are rares precisely because they are bad for draft.

Masquerade
09-05-2013, 06:12 PM
wait what?
people will draft to pick bad rares? wtf? your saying people will draft to grab the sh*t rares for $? who cares if they are gonna draft bad cards take your wins and take packs...

This, though I guarantee we'll have people b*tching about rare drafters making it unfair. :rolleyes:

the_artic_one
09-05-2013, 06:15 PM
^That already happened at the dragoncon panel, someone asked what they were doing to stop rare drafters (nothing, because free wins are not a problem).

Maphalux
09-05-2013, 06:32 PM
The one thing to say about chaos key is that, as of right now, there is no constant removal other than the key. It may be clunky, but it is an answer and sometimes you have to take what you can get.

Skirovik
09-05-2013, 07:49 PM
The one thing to say about chaos key is that, as of right now, there is no constant removal other than the key. It may be clunky, but it is an answer and sometimes you have to take what you can get.

Exactly!

I remember seeing that Sapphire constant that gave everything flight, or something. Chaos Key would be a very useful sideboard card for such an occasion. :)

loopholist3
09-06-2013, 06:19 AM
I am bringing this up because I draft for fun, I do not draft to win. To me, playing against somebody who has rare drafted, and thus gives me a free win, is both a waste of my time and the 1 dollar entry fee. In magic, I stopped playing in draft tournaments for the prizes a long time ago. This worked out well for me because most of the people at the game store I went to did the same thing, and you would get at most 1 rare drafter who was a new player.

Please avoid comments about if a card belongs in a certain category or not, as I figure almost every player's list would look different.

Malicus
09-06-2013, 07:34 AM
I am bringing this up because I draft for fun, I do not draft to win. To me, playing against somebody who has rare drafted, and thus gives me a free win, is both a waste of my time and the 1 dollar entry fee. In magic, I stopped playing in draft tournaments for the prizes a long time ago. This worked out well for me because most of the people at the game store I went to did the same thing, and you would get at most 1 rare drafter who was a new player.

Please avoid comments about if a card belongs in a certain category or not, as I figure almost every player's list would look different.

Rare drafters even in the absolute extreme case of them getting all 24 rares in the draft are still highly likely to have a playable deck and often you won't even know they have rare drafted.

We do not even know yet if it will be worth rare drafting as a good marketplace will likely generate lower card values. From what I have seen in MtG:O which unfortunately I started playing recently most sets have only a limited number of chase cards even worth rare drafting and in most cases would be taken and played anyway since they are chase because they are good.

Rare drafting of cards which are good in constructed but poor in limited is not very likely to adversely affect you unless you wanted to rare draft it instead and if it is good in limited anyone would have taken it.

As for not commenting on categories - wasn't doing that half the point behind your OP?

Blackhoof
09-06-2013, 08:36 AM
I am bringing this up because I draft for fun, I do not draft to win. To me, playing against somebody who has rare drafted, and thus gives me a free win, is both a waste of my time and the 1 dollar entry fee. In magic, I stopped playing in draft tournaments for the prizes a long time ago. This worked out well for me because most of the people at the game store I went to did the same thing, and you would get at most 1 rare drafter who was a new player.

Please avoid comments about if a card belongs in a certain category or not, as I figure almost every player's list would look different.
In addition to previous post there are announced 3 draft formats with different rewards on different amount of wins: 2 winners, 4 winners and swiss draft.
I think there will be different metagame and amount of "rare-drafters" in this formats and you can choose more competitive and interesting draft or draft with rewards for even one win with full-of-expensive-rares-deck.

HyenaNipples
09-06-2013, 09:29 AM
Yeah, with a total of 45 picks and only a guarantee of seeing 3 rares, that leaves 42 picks where even a 'Rare Drafter' will be drafting to win. Still seems like that is plenty of time to form a playable deck.

deathandtexas
09-06-2013, 09:53 AM
I know some drafts I have played in in the past tried to avoid rare-drafting by having the draft cards distributed randomly and evenly amongst the participants at the conclusion of the draft. Has there been any confirmation regarding whether Hex will use this approach or will they use a draft-to-keep method?

jaxsonbatemanhex
09-06-2013, 09:58 AM
I know some drafts I have played in in the past tried to avoid rare-drafting by having the draft cards distributed randomly and evenly amongst the participants at the conclusion of the draft. Has there been any confirmation regarding whether Hex will use this approach or will they use a draft-to-keep method?
I'm pretty sure they've implied, if not outright stated, it'll be a draft-to-keep system. Re-drafting, IMO, is a bad system which seeks to remove a strategic element of drafting - whether to draft to win, or draft for value. That is a choice players should have to make, and they're free to make whichever choice they want.

loopholist3
09-06-2013, 10:23 AM
Yeah, with a total of 45 picks and only a guarantee of seeing 3 rares, that leaves 42 picks where even a 'Rare Drafter' will be drafting to win. Still seems like that is plenty of time to form a playable deck.

Although rare drafters are only ever guaranteed 3 rares, even in magic they should be expecting 4 to 5. Right now, with the math I did in the OP, if there is only one rare drafter in the room, then they should be expecting about 10 rares. If there are 2 rare drafters then that number becomes 6. Basically you will need 3 rare drafters to get the average to a magic level (4.7), with 4 rare drafter at an even 4. This means in slightly more than 1 in 7 drafts there will be at least one serious player ending up with a double bye.

jaxsonbatemanhex
09-06-2013, 10:34 AM
Well if a player does get a double bye, they're going to get at least 2 booster prizes out of it, and I know that even if I'm drafting for fun, I'll happily take boosters that at most cost 50c.

loopholist3
09-06-2013, 10:37 AM
In addition to previous post there are announced 3 draft formats with different rewards on different amount of wins: 2 winners, 4 winners and swiss draft.
I think there will be different metagame and amount of "rare-drafters" in this formats and you can choose more competitive and interesting draft or draft with rewards for even one win with full-of-expensive-rares-deck.

Swiss will have all the rare drafters who want chance to win more pack, and are willing to invest the time to do so. The other 2 formats will have all the rare drafters who just want to get their rares and get out, as you will not be expected to do a round robin, and as such you only "need" to play one game. While there will probably be slightly less rare drafters every time you move to a format with less winners, the rare drafters will probably try to go to whatever format has the least other rare drafters so that they can get the maximum amount of rares.