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View Full Version : Estimates time: your take on the upcoming features



Xenavire
03-05-2014, 10:11 AM
As we all know, Beta is creeping closer, and everyone is getting more excited. So I thought a down to earth estimates thread would be an interesting endeavour.

What not to mention: Open Beta and PvE. This is simply a discussion about what is expected to arrive, and when, before we move into closed beta.

Stuff we know, and stuff we assume: all valid topics, but don't try to pass assumptions off as fact. An example woukd be my own assumption of guilds coming before CBT, but while my reasons are good, it isn't factual and hasnt been confirmed. Will update with any links to confirmed info as people post it.

To keep the OP nice and clear, I will only update with confirmed links.

http://coryhudsonjones.tumblr.com/post/76449580127/blog-post-number-2

mudkip
03-05-2014, 11:03 AM
I'm confused about what is meant to go in this thread?

ossuary
03-05-2014, 11:06 AM
He's looking for people to speculate on exactly what features are going to be in when CZE starts calling it "beta," and what timeframes we expect that "beta" to have.

Personally, I don't think we're going to see Beta before April, and more than likely not until early June.

Xenavire
03-05-2014, 11:12 AM
Now onto my own estimates, and my reasoning behind them.

Within the next month: draft, new cards, bugfixes.

Within two months: the remainder of the cards to make it live, slacker backer to stop, economy structure being put into place.

Within three months: final cars bugfixes, pack opening, AH, guild creation, and the all important server swap.

By late june, I expect CBT to be underway, and I don't feel thar it an unrealistic goal.

Now, down to my reasonings for this: we have about 30-35 unreleased cards that we know of that have to make it live. At 5 a week (which is pretty standard for CZE so far) we would be 6-7 weeks away from all the cards being live. We would also require close to a month of bugfixing to iron out the most unreasonable bugs.

The guilds I think have to be before CBT. Simply because it was promised for guilds from backers to have naming priority.




And Oss has it right. I was delayed in making my post, so thanks Oss for stepping in.

bojanglesz
03-05-2014, 11:18 AM
Now onto my own estimates, and my reasoning behind them.

Within the next month: draft, new cards, bugfixes.

Within two months: the remainder of the cards to make it live, slacker backer to stop, economy structure being put into place.

Within three months: final cars bugfixes, pack opening, AH, guild creation, and the all important server swap.

By late june, I expect CBT to be underway, and I don't feel thar it an unrealistic goal.

Now, down to my reasonings for this: we have about 30-35 unreleased cards that we know of that have to make it live. At 5 a week (which is pretty standard for CZE so far) we would be 6-7 weeks away from all the cards being live. We would also require close to a month of bugfixing to iron out the most unreasonable bugs.

The guilds I think have to be before CBT. Simply because it was promised for guilds from backers to have naming priority.




And Oss has it right. I was delayed in making my post, so thanks Oss for stepping in.

Very reasonable estimates (although I wish it were quicker ;-P). 7 weeks for the cards alone I think is a certainty, unless they pull a surprise patch and throw in the rest, which is highly unlikely given progress so far. I think the question with drafts is whether tourneys need to be 100% rock solid before they're implemented or will they go live once we're reasonably stable with sealed and constructed tourneys.

I'm of the opinion to throw them in there once the UI and infrastructure is there to get as much testing as possible, since sealed has been a shit show for all intents and purposes (I guess you could argue that more dev time for sealed would have killed the bugs we've seen, but I doubt it).

Then I guess its a question of do they continue to bugfix and make features 100% solid or do you continue to cram stuff in and just iterate as we go. I'm not a game dev or software engineer so I don't know which one makes sense. From a player and backer perspective, I want stuff fast, but I understand how long this stuff takes especially for a relatively inexperienced group like CZE.

On top of all this, how many bugs are just a result of the toaster that is the current Hex server?

ossuary
03-05-2014, 11:28 AM
The "toaster" bugs will crop up again once we go to larger servers and hit capacity on them. So it's better to take the time to fix those now. They're still load-based bugs... they're just way easier to reproduce when you run on a system that hits resource capacity at 1K concurrent users than on a system that hits capacity at 50K users. :)

Xenavire
03-05-2014, 11:35 AM
Yeah, that is why I think the server swap will come at the last possible moment (late May at the earliest, late June at the latest, based on current progress.) I mean, the last thing we want to see is an early swap, and have everything fall apart mid-beta, when we are playing for keeps. (And playing with our Keeps!)

That said, most of the server bugs have been singled out, and nearly as many seemingly killed. With some dilligence and hard work, and maybe a call to arms or two, we should be in the clear by the end of May, server wise.

When I am on my PC, I plan to link Cory's blig for the main source on upcoming features, since thise are more or less confirmed.

bojanglesz
03-05-2014, 11:38 AM
The feature I'm worried about the most, in terms of time/bugs/etc., is double back. That seems like an insane feature to get in for beta (and its required, since people will want to start getting achieves and what not with their collection). I mean think of each card and the possible 2-4 achievements and unlocks for each card...that's nuts. On top of having to collect all that info, it has to stick so that when traded and/or sold on the AH (another huge feature, heh) all that shit transfers.

ossuary
03-05-2014, 11:48 AM
Yeah, it's the heavy tracking of IDs / stats and big swaths of content like the AH that make me think we're still several months out... this is complicated stuff, and is going to need time to test, on top of just getting the game engine fully working properly, which still isn't 100%. We've still got a bit of a wait ahead of us. :)

bojanglesz
03-05-2014, 12:46 PM
Yeah, it's the heavy tracking of IDs / stats and big swaths of content like the AH that make me think we're still several months out... this is complicated stuff, and is going to need time to test, on top of just getting the game engine fully working properly, which still isn't 100%. We've still got a bit of a wait ahead of us. :)

Heh yep my thoughts exactly. In fact, I'm pretty much resigned to waiting for a looong time. No offense to CZE but I'd be thoroughly surprised if we're in closed beta before fall/winter :p. Unless they come out and say "surprise, we've been working on all this stuff the whole time and it's basically done!"

Xenavire
03-05-2014, 01:48 PM
Heh yep my thoughts exactly. In fact, I'm pretty much resigned to waiting for a looong time. No offense to CZE but I'd be thoroughly surprised if we're in closed beta before fall/winter :p. Unless they come out and say "surprise, we've been working on all this stuff the whole time and it's basically done!"

Well, that has been what they have been doing so far - tournaments, sealed, and other minor features have all surfaced at times that we didn't actually expect.

The killing factor though, is the bugs. I am sure they are getting better at identifying bugs and squashing them, but a lot dont surface until they hit a live environment. So those features could drop any week - but fixing the bugs will be a huge time investment.

Hence my conservative yet optimistic estimates. :)

mach
03-05-2014, 01:53 PM
One thing I don't think I've seen anyone mention is just how much work remains to be done on tournaments. You can't have a proper competitive game with just 8-man queues. Just off the top of my head, the remaining work on tournaments:

Bug fixes/stability improvements
Draft tournaments
Tournaments with >8 players
Scheduled tournaments with a variable number of players
TopX cut
Entry fees, including multiple options
Prizes, both based on record and based on standings
Invitation-only tournaments

This doesn't all need to be done by the start of Open Beta, but I think most if it should be.


Yeah, that is why I think the server swap will come at the last possible moment (late May at the earliest, late June at the latest, based on current progress.) I mean, the last thing we want to see is an early swap, and have everything fall apart mid-beta, when we are playing for keeps. (And playing with our Keeps!)


That's a bad idea, since there probably will also be bugs which show up on the new server setup but not on the current one.

Xenavire
03-05-2014, 02:00 PM
One thing I don't think I've seen anyone mention is just how much work remains to be done on tournaments. You can't have a proper competitive game with just 8-man queues. Just off the top of my head, the remaining work on tournaments:

Bug fixes/stability improvements
Draft tournaments
Tournaments with >8 players
Scheduled tournaments with a variable number of players
TopX cut
Entry fees, including multiple options
Prizes, both based on record and based on standings
Invitation-only tournaments

This doesn't all need to be done by the start of Open Beta, but I think most if it should be.



That's a bad idea, since there probably will also be bugs which show up on the new server setup but not on the current one.

Don't forget that there is a 30 day period confirmed between the server swap and CBT. The last possible moment is still 30 days in the clear, and going earlier just doesn't make sense.

The tournament work doesn't all need to be done before CBT. The prize support, yes. The stability, yes. Entry fees, yes. The rest can wait to Open beta. We only need to be concerned about the bare minimum.

Draft can't be argued with, and I already posted my thoughts.

ursa23
03-05-2014, 06:18 PM
Everything will be completed within five units of time, where one unit of time is equal to 1/5 of the total remaining time.

Gwaer
03-05-2014, 06:21 PM
^ this might be the best post ever.

Cernz
03-06-2014, 01:26 AM
as soon as they get the cards to work correctly "without any exception" ;) - they can start with closed beta (in my mind) ... off course the shop and pack opening has to be in the game too :) but if this works fine the game would get a new push - due to the wipe and the impulse to get his "own" deck.

they still have to improve stability of tourneys of course, but as long as they are free, they can easily deal with them during closed beta. i hope that we will hit this "new level" until beginning of may. (3 month closed beta with bugfixes and polishing + max. 3 month open beta - which would be nearly a release for pvp players - so we might get a release for all on christmas \o/

DuroNL
03-06-2014, 01:44 AM
Everything will be completed within five units of time, where one unit of time is equal to 1/5 of the total remaining time.

This made more sense than all the other posts in this topic ^^

Mahes
03-06-2014, 07:23 AM
Everything will be completed within five units of time, where one unit of time is equal to 1/5 of the total remaining time.

So will everything be done in one unit or in time?

Thrawn
03-06-2014, 08:20 AM
My completely uneducated guess.

I think we will see draft soon, in the next month or two. But it won't be stable and playable enough to actually enjoy until probably almost June. Beta by end of the Summer and a "launch" by year end. The beta won't be much more than we have now except for draft and will still be full of bugs. The launch will also be early due to people getting upset and Crypto starting to run out of money so we won't have PvE, dual back cards and many other features.

Many of those features will start to quietly just become maybes of hopeful future things to come that we never end up seeing.

(Yes, I'm a pessimist who prefers the "assume the worst and be pleasantly surprised if you're wrong" type of thinking.) :)

bojanglesz
03-06-2014, 09:37 AM
Patch today?

hex_colin
03-06-2014, 09:44 AM
Patch today?

Magic 8 Ball says "Reply hazy try again" ;)

Xenavire
03-06-2014, 10:20 AM
I hope so, but 'Signs point to no.'

No pre-patch warning yet, and last week was a fiasco. Plus it seems like new feature time (intuition speaking, not fact) so it will probably be a big patch next week.

tautologico
03-06-2014, 10:43 AM
I'm with bojanglesz and ossuary: there are features that are needed for beta that are complicated to get right and will need time testing. Yes, they may be developing the AH and double backs internally, but once these features go live they will need time for finding and fixing bugs. And this stuff is not simple, especially when you consider the possibility of multiple servers, replication and etc. Also, as noted by mach, even simple tournaments are not working 100% yet, and there are many more tournament features that need to get in.

Overall I think June for closed beta may be too optimistic. Also let's not forget Hofstadter's law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.

tautologico
03-06-2014, 10:45 AM
Also I predict drafts will come soon, but will be broken for some time yet. Draft is harder than sealed from an implementation perspective (coordinating card picks from everyone and stuff), no wonder they did sealed first.

bojanglesz
03-06-2014, 12:25 PM
Magic 8 Ball says "Reply hazy try again" ;)

The teaser strikes again, damn you!