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Yoss
04-03-2014, 10:38 AM
Post here your analyses and speculations of what booster price values will be in the secondary market. Secondary market means you must include analysis to separate out the value of Primal packs from Basic packs. I am mostly interested in steady state analysis for after the various Backer rewards are depleted, but if you want to do a transient analysis for what prices will be in the first N months, that's fine as long as you state that's what you're doing. Please state all assumptions and formulas used, along with which are just speculation and which have confirmed sources. Use of GoogleDocs to share spreadsheets could be helpful.

General Concepts
Things that drive prices up towards retail:
•Boosters opened outside of tournaments
•Limited tournaments

Things that drive prices down from retail:
•VIP memberships
•PvE booster drops (if they exist)
•Freebie drafts from KS

Things we know:
Plat/$US ratio: 100/1
Retail booster pack: $2
VIP booster pack: $48/52 = $0.93
Constructed fee: $3 per player
Sealed/Draft fee: $1 per player
Draft pack fee: 3 packs
Sealed pack fee: 6 packs
Typical tournament size: 8 players
Prize packs from tournaments: 12 packs per 8 players (in some distribution)
Primal packs drop in addition to basic packs, not as replacement. (link (http://hextcg.com/patch-v828-breakdown/))

Things we may need to assume:
Primal pack drop rate: 2% (link)
Primal-to-basic value ratio: ~15
Legendary drop rate in primal packs: 2 per pack (link)
Legnedary drop rate in normal packs: 1 per 9 packs (link)

% of boosters from retail (includes tournament prizes for paid tournaments)
% of boosters from VIP
% of boosters from free Drafts
% of boosters from chests
% of boosters from other sources?

Claims
Highest reasonable AH basic booster price: 153p. (see post 2)

Lowest reasonable AH basic booster price, VIP: 71p (see post 2)
Lowest reasonable AH basic booster price, Draft: 110p (link)

LLCoolDave & Yoss estimate an equilibrium around 128p (link)

Mokog estimates a transient price of 130p based on KS. (link)
Yoss and Stiii estimate a transient price of 87p based on KS. (link)

Primal Pack pricing is a bit harder to figure out until AH is up. (link)

More price analysis (link)
More price analysis (link)

Yoss
04-03-2014, 10:39 AM
Highest reasonable price:

The max value can be attained if every pack comes from CZE at retail price (i.e. no one does VIP, no one redeems any KS drafts, and no boosters drop from chests or PvE).

R := retail price
B := AH price of basic booster
P := AH price of primal booster
PP := probability of a new booster being primal
PM := primal multiplier (ratio of P to B)

R = B + PP*P = B + PP*PM*B = B*(1+PP*PM)

Solve for B gives

B = R / (1+PP*PM) (Eq.1)

We know R is 200p. I guess that PP is 2% and PM is 15, which means (1+PP*PM) is 1.3. (This 1.3 factor is used anywhere you want to remove the primal value.) Enter that into the above and you get 153p per basic pack.

You get the same when you calculate rewards from Constructed. 8 players buy in for 300p each (2400p) and get 12 packs out (200p per pack), which matches the store price.

Limited tournaments drive the price towards the retail price calculated above. For Sealed, 8 players buy in for 6 packs plus 100p (800p plus 48 packs) and get 12 packs out, which is a net consumption of packs, driving down the supply at the AH and forcing price towards retail. You get the same effect for Draft. 8 players buy in for 3 packs plus 100p (800p plus 24 packs) and get 12 packs out, which is a net consumption of packs, driving down the supply at the AH and again forcing price towards retail.


Lowest reasonable price:

VIP packs will probably represent the lowest reasonable price. It is unlikely the price would ever go this low. Theoretically, the price could go lower, even to zero, if the only packs entering the economy are from KS freebies and PvE drops. However, that would mean that Hex has failed as a game and price analysis under such circumstances would be irrelevant.

A year of VIP costs 4800p to get 52 packs, which is 92p per pack. Using Eq.1 from ablove to adjust for primal value (divide by 1.3) you get 71p per basic pack.

YourOpponent
04-03-2014, 12:28 PM
It could still get lower than $0.86 per basic pack at the beginning anyway. Based on speculation most people won't be buying packs when we receive our KS rewards. So $8 spent (to cover the entry fee for all 8 people) per draft tournament makes 12 booster packs averaging out to $0.66 pack being a lower possible booster pack price.

Lonenut
04-03-2014, 12:52 PM
Yeah, until they open up the game to non-kickstarter participants, set 1 packs are extremely low value. We badly need an influx of players soon after packs are given out to provide any value to them.

Kroan
04-03-2014, 12:57 PM
I think you're underestimating the wealth and how willing some people are to spend money on packs. I can 100% ensure you that every booster below $1 will be bought.

hex_colin
04-03-2014, 12:59 PM
I think you're underestimating the wealth and how willing some people are to spend money on packs. I can 100% ensure you that every booster below $1 will be bought.

Yeah, I'll be buying every single pack I see under $1. If they really end up selling that low, they're not going to be around for long.

Gwaer
04-03-2014, 01:05 PM
And I'll be buying every pack under 88 cents, just to relist them at 99 cents for Colin to buy. Muahahahaha. I'll make my kickstarter investment back in just 50,000 packs!

noragar
04-03-2014, 01:07 PM
Now that primal packs are generated when opening the packs instead of when obtaining the packs, that reduction in price due to not having a chance at a primal pack should no longer be included.

Also, the minimum price for obtaining a pack, whether it $0.66 or $0.92 isn't all that relevant. What it comes down to is how driven people are to want to exchange their packs for platinum. This will drive the extent that they'll want to undercut the other pack sellers. If there's not much you could do with platinum other than buying packs and tournament entries, then pack prices won't be much below $2.00. The more useful platinum is for doing other stuff like buying cards on the AH, gaining other perks, etc. the more reason people would have to want trade their packs that they got through KS or tournament wins or VIP, so the sale prices on packs would go lower.

Kroan
04-03-2014, 01:08 PM
Platinum = Gaining access to tournaments. That's more than enough already ;)

Gwaer
04-03-2014, 01:10 PM
Now that primal packs are generated when opening the packs instead of when obtaining the packs, that reduction in price due to not having a chance at a primal pack should no longer be included.

Also, the minimum price for obtaining a pack, whether it $0.66 or $0.92 isn't all that relevant. What it comes down to is how driven people are to want to exchange their packs for platinum. This will drive the extent that they'll want to undercut the other pack sellers. If there's not much you could do with platinum other than buying packs and tournament entries, then pack prices won't be much below $2.00. The more useful platinum is for doing other stuff like buying cards on the AH, gaining other perks, etc. the more reason people would have to want trade their packs that they got through KS or tournament wins or VIP, so the sale prices on packs would go lower.


Primals still generate on purchase, it's just that if you get a primal you get it in addition to the booster pack you bought, rather than instead of.

dogmod
04-03-2014, 01:12 PM
The other thing that I just thought of is the fact that pro players+ got a secret buff in the fact that they now have chances at primals in their drafts correct?

noragar
04-03-2014, 01:14 PM
Primals still generate on purchase, it's just that if you get a primal you get it in addition to the booster pack you bought, rather than instead of.

Thanks for the clarification. I must have misunderstood the explanation of the change and I didn't get a primal in my test packs to observe how it worked.

dogmod
04-03-2014, 01:19 PM
Maybe not... hopeful proplayer/gk ;o

loopholist3
04-03-2014, 01:46 PM
Thanks for the clarification. I must have misunderstood the explanation of the change and I didn't get a primal in my test packs to observe how it worked.


Also, Primal Packs – packs filled with 100% juicy rare and legendary goodness – are also in-game, and you have a chance of obtaining a Primal Pack in each booster pack that you open.

Note that Primal Packs will come in addition to the booster pack you open, rather than taking the place of a booster pack. If you just so happen to find a Primal Pack during a Booster Draft, it will be deposited into your account. Because who doesn’t love opening more packs than what they started with? Keeping with our fans first policy, Primal Packs just got even better!

Definitely sounds like upon opening based off the patch notes. Are we sure that, what is happening now is the final design?

Xenavire
04-03-2014, 01:50 PM
Definitely sounds like upon opening based off the patch notes. Are we sure that, what is happening now is the final design?

Well, one patch notes (on open) versus how it used to be described (on purchase) and how it works in game (on purchase) does lean in the favour of the on purchase method. However, we don't have solid proof right now either way. As much as I normally trust patch notes and related posts, there have been mistakes in the past.

Gwaer
04-03-2014, 02:02 PM
The booster draft quote is in respect to if you enter the draft by just paying platinum and not bringing your own packs. If you bring your own packs you cannot get a primal out of draft.

Yoss
04-03-2014, 02:05 PM
Also, the minimum price for obtaining a pack, whether it $0.66 or $0.92 isn't all that relevant. What it comes down to is how driven people are to want to exchange their packs for platinum. This will drive the extent that they'll want to undercut the other pack sellers. If there's not much you could do with platinum other than buying packs and tournament entries, then pack prices won't be much below $2.00. The more useful platinum is for doing other stuff like buying cards on the AH, gaining other perks, etc. the more reason people would have to want trade their packs that they got through KS or tournament wins or VIP, so the sale prices on packs would go lower.
Platinum gives you access to everything in the game. The CZE store, VIP, tournament fees, and AH fees are the foundation for giving it value (the "Plat sinks" if you will), but that's just the beginning. Once we get p2p trading, you will be able to buy Gold with Plat. Armed with Plat and Gold you can get basically anything you want from the Auction House. As long as there are some people who want to buy packs and/or tournament entry, Plat will be highly desireable. In other words, as long as there are some people who want to play PvP, there's no need to worry about lack of demand for Plat. (And if for some reason people don't play PvP, Hex will be dead anyway so no one will care about price analysis any more.)

Note that this is all assuming steady-state, not accounting for KS rewards. The transient behavior will be much different, probably in the direction of much lower prices for Set 1. Other factors, like being in print or out of print, or whether there's a Con going (for the special chest drops), are also not included.

EDIT: It would be cool if people wanted to expand on Mokog's transient analysis to help find a guess at what the early-beta prices might be.



The other thing that I just thought of is the fact that pro players+ got a secret buff in the fact that they now have chances at primals in their drafts correct?

Yes, free drafts are now more value than before. More accurately, they are now in alignment with the $7 price tag. Instead of getting $1 plus three basic boosters worth of value (each of which is less than the $2 retail price), you get the full retail value.

Yoss
04-03-2014, 05:59 PM
Since it is relevant to this thread, I figured I'd point out that the 0.5% guess from the data collection thread was due to a bug and not the intended drop rate:

Hey guys,

Live release had bugs both with the legendaries drops in normal packs and the percent chance to generate primal packs. The data collected in the thread is not accurate. On the plus side, the community reporting their drops helped us find these bugs and we certainly appreciate it.

We'll try it again in the next live release (tomorrow).

I assume we'll get a new data collection going starting next patch.

mudkip
04-03-2014, 06:52 PM
I doubt we will see sub-$1 packs. A lot of people, myself included, would be happy to grab some more at that price.

stiii
04-03-2014, 07:43 PM
I doubt we will see sub-$1 packs. A lot of people, myself included, would be happy to grab some more at that price.

Well at all depends how many people are on the other end who are happy to sell their packs for $1. There will be a huge number of packs from KS something like 1.5 million? And then how long before set 2 comes out and when the first set stops being used for drafting.

The main issue with valuing packs at more than $1 is that people end up making a profit from their KS tier, you got more packs than it cost in dollars. In same way people want to buy extra packs lots of people will want to buy plat so there is a market for players cashing out.

shocker455
04-03-2014, 11:15 PM
They say you can bring packs to the draft instead of paying the 600 plat. I know everyone simply assumed that if you bring packs they must match what your drafting, but did they ever state so? I could see them NOT doing this to help out the player who may have 3 packs, but not of the right sets. I could see this actually be a frequent annoyance for some player types.

examples:
Players tend to buy the newest packs. Someone buys 10, 20, 50 or w/e of the newest pack opens a bunch and saves the rest for later. Later on he wants to draft but only has the newest pack so cant pay with packs.

If you cant pick what packs you get for winning a tourney, and your drafting with 3 different sets, odds are you will get a large stock pile of 1-2 types of packs and missing the 3rd pack type.

Now I think its unlikely they will do this, but its defiantly a possibility. If it happens, the value of set one would be much large then expected, as people could slowly turn set one packs into other packs via sealed. Odds are if they do it, it would be limited to the the set is in block, so no turning set one packs into set 10.


And then how long before set 2 comes out and when the first set stops being used for drafting.

according to the interview on april 1st, set 2 will possibility arrive ~3 months after beta starts and possibility even sooner. Mainly depends on how smoothly things go, and they are worried about set one becoming boring

shocker455
04-03-2014, 11:19 PM
(is there no delete post button?)

Yoss
04-03-2014, 11:48 PM
The main issue with valuing packs at more than $1 is that people end up making a profit from their KS tier, you got more packs than it cost in dollars. In same way people want to buy extra packs lots of people will want to buy plat so there is a market for players cashing out.

Mokog estimated that the KS packs cost $1.30 on average, by taking the total KS (~$2M) and dividing by the number of packs in the reward pool. If he's right, some backers might profit at $1 per pack, but most wouldn't.

@shocker:
I agree it would be nice to know if they're going to allow pack substitution for Limited buy-in. In a digital world, it's definitely possible. However, if they default to the standard paper TCG model, you'll have to bring the right type of packs.

Patrigan
04-04-2014, 12:53 AM
Well at all depends how many people are on the other end who are happy to sell their packs for $1. There will be a huge number of packs from KS something like 1.5 million? And then how long before set 2 comes out and when the first set stops being used for drafting.

The main issue with valuing packs at more than $1 is that people end up making a profit from their KS tier, you got more packs than it cost in dollars. In same way people want to buy extra packs lots of people will want to buy plat so there is a market for players cashing out.

1.5million boosters for 15k players is nothing, you do realize that? It equals an average of 100 boosters per person, NOT enough to get a full playset of all rares (and with a 1/9 chance for Legendaries, you will have around 10). 100 boosters is 3-4 displays, how many displays did most of you buy at release of a Magic / WoWTCG set?

So who will be placing their boosters on the AH early? The ones with high and multiple KS tiers.
And who will be buying all cheap packs? Champions and below (total of 10000 backers).

We also already know that some of the big spenders will NOT be selling their boosters cheaply (Hex_Colin comes to mind)

And with all this, we haven't even counted the Slacker Backers, who all have a worse deal on their boosters.

Then there's Open beta, which will most likely launch BEFORE Set 2. An influx of players who don't have any boosters.

And then I haven't even said ANYTHING about the actual singles sellers (like HexTCGPro and Metamart if they're going to). First of all, they're NOT going to sell their boosters, but they'll open them. Secondly, it's almost a pure win for them to buy all boosters below 1$ (depends a bit on how much the bulk rares will go for).

Do people really believe that packs will stay low for long?

Malakili
04-04-2014, 04:14 AM
There is also the question whether or not people will use the auction house before they use the regular store. Your average player might just go and think "Oh, I'll buy a pack off I got to the store." People don't behave "optimally" in real life.

Patrigan
04-04-2014, 04:28 AM
There is also the question whether or not people will use the auction house before they use the regular store. Your average player might just go and think "Oh, I'll buy a pack off I got to the store." People don't behave "optimally" in real life.

Same applies for the kickstarter backers, perhaps they won't go to the AH, but just open everything they have (not thinking "hey I can make money here"). So those two points of view cancel each other.

stiii
04-04-2014, 11:33 AM
Mokog estimated that the KS packs cost $1.30 on average, by taking the total KS (~$2M) and dividing by the number of packs in the reward pool. If he's right, some backers might profit at $1 per pack, but most wouldn't.

@shocker:
I agree it would be nice to know if they're going to allow pack substitution for Limited buy-in. In a digital world, it's definitely possible. However, if they default to the standard paper TCG model, you'll have to bring the right type of packs.

I think those numbers really suffer from using a mean rather than a median. they are hugely skewed by a small group that paid a lot of money for the higher tier rewards. All the tiers before king get packs for roughly 1 and king tier gets them under $1. The $250 tiers get 150 plus a free draft a week for the first year so another 150.

There are only 1000 people above those tiers so in fact most people would benefit.

stiii
04-04-2014, 11:45 AM
1.5million boosters for 15k players is nothing, you do realize that? It equals an average of 100 boosters per person, NOT enough to get a full playset of all rares (and with a 1/9 chance for Legendaries, you will have around 10). 100 boosters is 3-4 displays, how many displays did most of you buy at release of a Magic / WoWTCG set?

So who will be placing their boosters on the AH early? The ones with high and multiple KS tiers.
And who will be buying all cheap packs? Champions and below (total of 10000 backers).

We also already know that some of the big spenders will NOT be selling their boosters cheaply (Hex_Colin comes to mind)

And with all this, we haven't even counted the Slacker Backers, who all have a worse deal on their boosters.

Then there's Open beta, which will most likely launch BEFORE Set 2. An influx of players who don't have any boosters.

And then I haven't even said ANYTHING about the actual singles sellers (like HexTCGPro and Metamart if they're going to). First of all, they're NOT going to sell their boosters, but they'll open them. Secondly, it's almost a pure win for them to buy all boosters below 1$ (depends a bit on how much the bulk rares will go for).

Do people really believe that packs will stay low for long?

I guess the issue is how many people will crack packs against people who will use them to draft. 100 packs seems like a huge number to me that is 33 drafts plus another 17 in prizes assuming a win 50% win rate.

Last time I bought magic product to open was 13 years ago and I never bought any wow product. Which is obviously pretty rare but I do think there is a group of players who never open packs outside of a draft to whom 100 packs is a lot.

You seem to think opening packs is worth it at $1 and I very much disagree with that. I don't think there is any chance of reselling the cards from 100 packs for $100. Set 2 is very different as there is a much much smaller supply so prices will be much higher.

jtatta
04-04-2014, 12:26 PM
I disagree about not being able to sell the cards from 100 packs for at least $100. It might not happen right away but if the odds of a Legendary are truly 1:11 (officially stated by CZE somewhere) then you can expect 9-10 Legendary cards and X number of Primal Packs (from the chests). I think that the treasure chests alone will be worth the ~$100. I will concede that the non-Legendary cards won't be worth much except the chase rares like XI, Extinction, a handful of others but the average rare will just end up being bulk. Singles stores like HexTCGPro.com's really won't suffer from that though. I honestly do think that the chase Legendary cards (Angel of Dawn, Vampire King, Eye of Creation, Uruunaz, Jadiim, Eternal Guardian) will maintain double digit values. If I'm wrong I'm going to be out a lot of money but I'm really not seeing it.

I'll come out and say it right now that if people want to sell our stores packs for less than $1.00 USD I'll buy as many as I possibly can and I would assume that would be several thousand.

- John

Yoss
04-04-2014, 12:31 PM
OK, stiii, I went and did some KS math myself. Here's what I found. I excluded everything above King level. I excluded PayPal backers (we don't have the data). I included the +5 booster and 3 month VIP goals. I excluded free drafts.

Kickstarter Price Analysis
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/cze/hex-mmo-trading-card-game
Total backers (King and down): 13,518
Total paid by them: $839,540
Total packs for them: 960,063

$0.87 KS average price/pack*
$0.72 King tier price/pack*
$2.00 Squire tier price/pack*

* Assumes 100% of the tier value is in the boosters, which will make the calculated number higher than reality by some unknown amount.

We can then take the $0.87 and plug it into Eq.1 from the OP to subtract out the Primal value and get $0.81 (with 0.5% primal rate, which we think is bugged in v828). Similarly, for the King tier, we can take the $0.72 and take out primal value to get $0.67.

I leave it to the reader to decide what conclusions to make. :)


Raw data, unformatted

Tier Price Packs Qty Total Paid Total Packs Price/Pack
Squire $20.00 10 2981 $59,620.00 29810 $2.00
Warrior $35.00 25 2717 $95,095.00 67925 $1.40
Captain $50.00 45 1641 $82,050.00 73845 $1.11
Knight $65.00 65 1795 $116,675.00 116675 $1.00
Champion $85.00 102 928 $78,880.00 94656 $0.83
King Early $90.00 167 250 $22,500.00 41750 $0.54
King $120.00 167 3206 $384,720.00 535402 $0.72

Summary 13518 $839,540.00 960063 $0.87

jimmywolf
04-04-2014, 02:41 PM
while i don't have much of a opinion on what i think final worth of anything will be, i will say anything i make i will be using to buy more cards/booster in hex if, i sell anything.

i love the concept of hex an love the cards so for me it a treat i have the ability to offset some of the cost threw the AH

Silent
04-04-2014, 02:53 PM
The other thing that I just thought of is the fact that pro players+ got a secret buff in the fact that they now have chances at primals in their drafts correct?

Has this been confirmed? Are we really going to have the chance to get primal packs on top, when entering a draft and getting three boosters via the pro player tier? Would be amazing :)

hammer
04-04-2014, 03:43 PM
Anyone who wants to pre-order 350 set 1 boosters for 349$ get in touch :p

Yubar
04-05-2014, 02:46 PM
OK, stiii, I went and did some KS math myself. Here's what I found. I excluded everything above King level. I excluded PayPal backers (we don't have the data). I included the +5 booster and 3 month VIP goals. I excluded free drafts.

Kickstarter Price Analysis
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/cze/hex-mmo-trading-card-game
Total backers (King and down): 13,518
Total paid by them: $839,540
Total packs for them: 960,063

$0.87 KS average price/pack*
$0.72 King tier price/pack*
$2.00 Squire tier price/pack*

* Assumes 100% of the tier value is in the boosters, which will make the calculated number higher than reality by some unknown amount.



I love the fact you guys are doing economic analysis like this but one thing people look over is that it gives no value to all of the other KS benefits we bought into, though you do point that out. I'd bet that if bought in bulk, players would be definitely willing to sell packs for ~50c a pack maybe less because of the Set 1 glut.

Sidenote: I've been wondering, what do you guys think is the best move for Primals, sell the pack or sell the pack's content? I'm thinking the pack itself, as I replace the uncertainty premium with the "surprise" premium some might be willing to pay. Thoughts?

Yoss
04-05-2014, 05:27 PM
Sidenote: I've been wondering, what do you guys think is the best move for Primals, sell the pack or sell the pack's content? I'm thinking the pack itself, as I replace the uncertainty premium with the "surprise" premium some might be willing to pay. Thoughts?

Save them for during conventions so you can get Legendary Chest drops for the exclusive Mercs.

YourOpponent
04-06-2014, 07:32 PM
Something I don't think most people are thinking about is the half life principle of packs.

If a player does nothing but Swiss with 100 packs and wins half their games (probably more due to rare farmers...but let's say half for simplicity sakes.)

Then that 100 makes 50 packs (+25 packs if done again with those 50 packs) + 12 (if done again from those 25 packs) + 6 (if done again) then + 3 (then +1). So ultimately those 100 packs from Swiss alone would make 93 packs (and that's if you're rounding down....otherwise it's about 100 packs) So that is roughly 90-110 packs that player will not be buying from the AH...this causes a small lower demand for packs in the player base. Reasons like this is why I think for at least the first day or two packs being less than $1 are a very real possibility. People call me crazy, but I've done enough merchanting on MMO's to kow that "holiday content" which this could be looked at as a "holiday event" will be having a downward spiral....Yes that spiral will go upwards and faster than "holiday items" from when the event is over, but a few people buying packs at $1 will just temporarily stimulate the economy.

Lonenut
04-07-2014, 06:39 AM
Something I don't think most people are thinking about is the half life principle of packs.

If a player does nothing but Swiss with 100 packs and wins half their games (probably more due to rare farmers...but let's say half for simplicity sakes.)

Then that 100 makes 50 packs (+25 packs if done again with those 50 packs) + 12 (if done again from those 25 packs) + 6 (if done again) then + 3 (then +1). So ultimately those 100 packs from Swiss alone would make 93 packs (and that's if you're rounding down....otherwise it's about 100 packs) So that is roughly 90-110 packs that player will not be buying from the AH...this causes a small lower demand for packs in the player base. Reasons like this is why I think for at least the first day or two packs being less than $1 are a very real possibility. People call me crazy, but I've done enough merchanting on MMO's to kow that "holiday content" which this could be looked at as a "holiday event" will be having a downward spiral....Yes that spiral will go upwards and faster than "holiday items" from when the event is over, but a few people buying packs at $1 will just temporarily stimulate the economy.

You're forgetting that most people (since a draft is 8) won't get prize packs. Your player who wins half their games isn't realistic.

I haven't ever seen what the prize pool is like, but I believe we've seen that players kick in $1 for a booster draft to go to the prize pool. With 8 players, that's $8, which is four packs. Let's assume they throw in two bonus packs, just because, so that's six packs as prizes.

So players contribute 24 packs total to create two "new" packs and buy four packs at retail.

So really, only ~8 "new" packs are created for every 100 kickstarter packs.

Yoss
04-07-2014, 08:46 AM
The prize distributions are in the OP of this thread, and also elsewhere. (EDIT: Well, only quantity was in the OP, not distribution. I'll fix.) There are two types: 8-4 and Swiss, which both give out 12 packs total. 8-4 means 8 packs for 1st, 4 packs for 2nd. Swiss means 1 pack per win, and you get to play all three rounds no matter what.

ossuary
04-07-2014, 11:17 AM
Cory said in the recent live interview that they are actually leaning towards 5-3-2-2 instead of 8-4, because it rewards more players with packs. But that isn't a final decision yet. Just FYI. :)

Yoss
04-07-2014, 11:20 AM
Good to know, thanks.

For the purposes of this thread, all that matters is that 12 packs are generated and distributed in some fashion. It isn't very relevant, for price analysis, whether they all go to 1st or get spread around.

LLCoolDave
04-07-2014, 11:26 AM
Every 8 player draft queue introduces the contents of 24 boosters to the economy at the cost of 12 (24 entry minus 12 payout) and 800 platinum. It doesn't matter how games go, what the players win rates are or anything like that if you look at the economy as a whole. This also sets a very strict soft limit on the secondary market value of booster contents: As each draft firing drains at most 3200 platinum from the economy (entry fee + 12 store bought boosters) the contents of an average booster cannot meaningfully exceed 133 platinum or else drafting becomes profitable to the player base as a whole, a situation that cannot be sustainable long term.

Looking at it in a different light, participating in a draft queue is effectively opening booster packs at the cost of 133 platinum each for the average player, so if you want to open boosters and play average in limited it is cheaper to draft than to crack boosters as long as they cost more than 133 platinum in the AH.

In short, while the store price of a booster is 200 platinum, CZE are also already selling you opened boosters at a rate of 133 platinum just by the structure of limited events. Experience with the MTGO economy suggests that the secondary market value of boosters ranges between these two figures, depending on how fun people perceive the limited format to be, and in formats that use boosters from multiple sets the relative values can change drastically depending on the ratio of boosters needed to boosters paid out of each set. (Traditionally, the third set boosters are worth a lot less relatively because they make up a significant portion of the prize payout structure but are consumed at the same rate as the first set boosters, creating a strong disparity in availability on the market.)

Yoss
04-07-2014, 11:32 AM
Awesome post, LLCD. It will take me some time to digest it.

Yoss
04-07-2014, 12:43 PM
From post 41 it sounds like you'd expect a lower bound of 133p on booster price then? This because if the contents are worth 133p, then the unopened pack must be worth at least that much because it has those contents plus the ability to be entered in Limited.

Minor quibble, you didn't account for Primals as part of the value that the 200p retail has to cover. I expect that would drop the calculated price limit a little bit. For example, when you calculated 3200p (at most), we could actually tighten that upper bound by using the upper bound from Post 2 (186p) instead of retail (200p). This gives a bound of 126p rather than 133p.

Really though, the value is variable based on AH price, by formula:
C := value of contents of an average basic pack
DF := Draft entry fee per player
B := AH price of basic booster

C <= (8*DF + 12*B)/24

with constraint B >= C (closed booster must be worth at least the value of its contents).

If we push B to the limit of that constraint (where B=C), we get a price of 67p. That limit can only hold while there is a large supply of cheap boosters (KS rewards, VIP, etc). After that, the AH supply will dry up and people will be forced to buy retail, pushing AH price above the 126p lower bound calculated in this post and up towards the 186p upper bound from Post 2.

The corollary, as you said in your second paragraph, is basically that one should always draft in order to open packs, assuming one values money over time. (The extra value gained is earned through the time spent drafting.)

(All that to say, I agree. I just like to work through it myself for understanding.)

Kardh
04-08-2014, 02:05 AM
Nice with a thread that hasn't derailed by the 5th page. I think this analysis (in posts #41/#43) makes perfect sense.

I would guess that the price should end up somewhere pretty close to 126p. While I can see how some will dump the price slightly initially, the downward pressure from available kickstarter packs should be eaten up quickly by demand.

LLCoolDave
04-08-2014, 07:03 AM
A much more significant impact on the secondary market value of booster packs than the cost of effectively buying preopened boosters in a draft queue are going to be constructed queues because each of them actually increases the amount of closed booster packs in the economy in exchange for platinum. A natural price point for a constructed 8 man would seem to be at 300 platinum each with the same usual 8-4/5-3-2-2/Swiss payout of 12 boosters total. This, however means that playing constructed queues is equivalent to buying boosters at face value of 200 platinum and then distributing them according to play skill. This is sensible if the value of a closed booster actually is close to 200 platinum, but we've already established that that's unlikely.

A player with a 60% match winrate (which is a strong, but not world class player) will win an 8-4 event 21.6% (0.6^3) of the time and get second 14.4% (0.6 * 0.6 * 0.4 since order matters in single elimination) of the time, winning an average of 2.304 booster packs per event. In order for this class of player to break even on constructed tournaments (and 8-4 are the most skewed towards people with higher winrates) each booster has to be worth at least 130 platinum.

This means that if prices were to dip that low, only a handful of people would be able to profitably play constructed tournaments at all and everybody else would be quickly bled dry. This is not a healthy environment. Let's rather assume a slightly above average player (55% winrate). I'd argue that this is about the threshold where a player should be able to break even playing constructed events for them to be a healthy environment of firing continuously, people enjoying playing them and having a long term sustainable player base. This guy earns on average 1.73525 boosters playing 5-3-2-2, 1.8755 playing 8-4 and 1.65 boosters playing a Swiss queue. Of course the playing field tends to be harder in 8-4 and softer in Swiss and 5-3-2-2 due to the payout structure, so this guy probably wins close to 1.8 boosters on average playing constructed events. For this to be break even, a pack has to be worth at least 167 platinum.

This creates a strong attraction point for the market. If boosters are worth more than that, people are less likely to play constructed events as they are just not profitable for the majority of the player base, reducing the amount of boosters introduced into the market by them. If drafting demand stays the same this means that boosters get scarcer on the market and prices are bound to increase, making drafting less economically desirable (due to the increased entry fee) and constructed events more attractive, shifting the balance back again. This creates a natural feedback loop that tends to hold secondary market values of boosters relatively stable, which is a good place to be.

One way to always make constructed queues more attractive is to increase payout or reduce entry fees. A 12 booster payout at 250 entry fee is equivalent to buying boosters at 166.6 platinum each, a 200 entry fee (which is probably going too far) would be the equivalent of 133.3 platinum each, which would make closed boosters exactly as valuable as opened ones from the draft analysis earlier, which is a rather odd place to be.

There's good precedent of boosters being introduced under store value in constructed events on MTGO: Daily Events, which are limited in participant numbers and fire on a set schedule, effectively pay out 35 booster packs for every 96$ in entry fee, with slight variation on the actual participant numbers and the way the Swiss works out. That comes out to the equivalent of 137 platinum per pack in Hex terms! These events are great value even for people who are below average players.

The relative interest of constructed and limited events has an influence on the equilibrium point mentioned above. Core sets are traditionally relatively unpopular MtG draft formats, which leads to predictably low core set booster prices on MTGO, frequently in the 3.1 to 3.2 tickets range (~ 155 platinum) whereas first expansion boosters tend to stabilized around 3.7 to 3.8 tickets (~ 185 platinum). Similar effects are going to happen to Hex once we get into expansions being release.

As far as I know there have been no official statements for the intended entry fees and payout structures for constructed events by CZE yet, which is an ESSENTIAL piece in the puzzle we are trying to solve here.

Now an important question you might be asking yourself right now: Why would CZE introduce closed boosters at below store rates in constructed events. Aren't they just losing out on money then? The answer is, surprisingly: Not really. Store bought boosters don't play a real role in the economy. Ideally the majority of the boosters in circulation should be generated as prize payouts and then consumed in draft queues, producing the influx of singles on the market. Opening packs or buying them from the store is never really a sensible option so not too many people are going to do that.

This means that CZE's profit doesn't depend on the secondary market value of boosters or cards in a first order relation, unless maybe if there are AH fees they profit on slightly, which I don't think we have heard a statement on yet (and I don't think is a good idea in the first place). Lowering booster prices, and as an effect, lowering card values across the board by making drafts relatively speaking cheaper makes the game more accessible, it's easier to get a good constructed deck and it's cheaper, even for losing players, to just join a draft to have fun.

Tournaments become more and more attractive because you pay relatively speaking less for the enjoyment of taking part in them. And increasing tournament participation is THE major way that you can and will profit on this whole operation. Every draft takes 800 platinum out of circulation, every constructed 8 man takes 2400 (300 price point) or 2000 (250 price point) platinum out of circulation, no matter what else happens to the economy.

The ingenious part about this is the following realization:No matter what happens in between, every single one of those platinum spent on entry fees ultimately had to have been purchased from CZE, as that is the ONLY source of platinum in the entire economy. Boosters, cards etc. are generated by playing and participating in tournaments, but the only way to ever get to platinum is that someone, at some point, had to have bought it straight from CZE (or their publishers, strictly speaking). This means that you earn $8 every single time a draft fires, $24 every single time a constructed event fires, regardless of the perceived value of the prices you pay out. Increasing sustained tournament participation is a surefire, guaranteed, no strings attached increase in revenue that should, I believe, significantly outpace any potential gains from getting more people to buy boosters in the store. The only reason store bought boosters even need to exist is to provide a potential source of boosters for drafting if the balance between limited and constructed is severely skewed (for instance, right after the release of a new set, potentially).

Finding the right balance between entry fees to perceived value of prizes and cost of additional material (boosters for draft, building a deck for constructed events as a one time fee) while still making people feel that their collection has value is a bit of an art form. The important thing to realize is that, economically speaking, CZE is NOT in the business of selling boosters to players. They sell platinum, and cards and boosters solely exist as a means of getting people to spend platinum on tournament entry fees. Of course the best way to achieve that is to create a game people enjoy playing. The 200 platinum nominal value of boosters solely exists to set an upper limit to the prices of cards and draft queues, with an additional psychological bonus of people feeling they got a good deal with obtaining cheaper boosters through the AH or playing the game. Ideally, the entire market wouldn't look much different if the only source of boosters were constructed tournaments (once an initial card base has been established to allow people to even play in these, almost all of this doesn't apply to Set 1 too much.).

noragar
04-08-2014, 07:24 AM
It seems that everyone is ignoring supply vs. demand for the cheap packs. For the first week or so, the KS packs will create high supply and lower prices. Once those are redistributed and things start to equalize, the packs that can be sold for a profit at 126 platinum will be in very short supply.

Say you're an average player who doesn't have hundreds of KS packs stockpiled away. You buy a few packs and enter a draft tourny. You finish 2nd to win 4 packs (a nice above average result). Are you going to run to the auction house to sell those packs for 126 platinum, and then the next time you want to draft go out and buy some more packs at a price most likely more than 126 platinum, possibly even 200 platinum if nobody's selling packs on the AH at the moment?

Long term, if everyone's demand for packs is 100% met by the packs that are given out as tournament prizes, VIP, and other extremely limited discounted sources, then the game will be a colossal failure. If the demand is not met by these sources, then at least some of the time, some of the people will need to be buying packs at retail at 200 platinum. While this is happening, the price for packs should never get much below 200 platinum with the appropriate primal pack adjustment.

hammer
04-08-2014, 07:27 AM
A much more significant impact ....

Excellent post, maybe even THE best community contributed post of the entire alpha forum.

I would like to read your analysis of the impact of the Hex VIP programme. Where boosters will enter the system at a cost of less than $1 per booster (when correcting for primal). This supply price is supposed to be capped by quantity at 4 boosters per subscribed individual but I am interested to hear your thoughts and analysis.

LLCoolDave
04-08-2014, 07:58 AM
Are you going to run to the auction house to sell those packs for 126 platinum, and then the next time you want to draft go out and buy some more packs at a price most likely more than 126 platinum, possibly even 200 platinum if nobody's selling packs on the AH at the moment?

No, you start selling packs once you amass more than you expect to need in the near future and have actual use for platinum at the moment. Packs won in draft tournaments usually get eaten up on more drafts and only occasionally end up on the market again.


Long term, if everyone's demand for packs is 100% met by the packs that are given out as tournament prizes, VIP, and other extremely limited discounted sources, then the game will be a colossal failure.

This is blatantly wrong. If people are regularly forced to buy boosters in the store to draft, the game is a colossal failure, because it means that an insignificant amount of people are playing in the constructed tournaments, effectively rendering cards worthless and a majority of the game design to be unimportant. At that point, why not just have a game that is purely drafting/sealed and have collectible cards at all? As long as there are constructed queues that payout boosters at at least the store rate, these should cover a majority of the supply needed. If constructed and limited queues fire in a 1:1 balance, the entire demand can be covered on prize support alone. If things stray significantly from this situation that would suggest to me a major flaw in the game design at some level.


I would like to read your analysis of the impact of the Hex VIP programme. Where boosters will enter the system at a cost of less than $1 per booster (when correcting for primal). This supply price is supposed to be capped by quantity at 4 boosters per subscribed individual but I am interested to hear your thoughts and analysis.

It's probably insignificant overall. If Hex will offer tournaments in line with the daily events on MTGO that offer fairly cheap boosters to the economy, the influx of cheap VIP boosters is in line with one player participating in two daily events over the span of a month, in the amount of cheap boosters added to the economy. As long as people actually actively participate in tournaments the VIP boosters just are in too low a volume compared to the market throughput to significantly affect prices. If the VIP program timing is synced with a global calender (e.g. it resets every 1st of a month) you can expect a slight dip in prices every time it refreshes by people looking to make a quick profit on the boosters but if it's on an individual clock for everyone you'll likely not even notice at all. The benefit is much more on a personal scale, think of it rather as a cheaper draft you can participate in each month than boosters being added to the economy. I doubt the volume is going to really matter on the grand scale.

noragar
04-08-2014, 08:20 AM
This is blatantly wrong. If people are regularly forced to buy boosters in the store to draft, the game is a colossal failure, because it means that an insignificant amount of people are playing in the constructed tournaments, effectively rendering cards worthless and a majority of the game design to be unimportant. At that point, why not just have a game that is purely drafting/sealed and have collectible cards at all? As long as there are constructed queues that payout boosters at at least the store rate, these should cover a majority of the supply needed. If constructed and limited queues fire in a 1:1 balance, the entire demand can be covered on prize support alone. If things stray significantly from this situation that would suggest to me a major flaw in the game design at some level.


You said yourself in the post that you were writing at the same time I was writing mine:



This, however means that playing constructed queues is equivalent to buying boosters at face value of 200 platinum and then distributing them according to play skill.


That's my point exactly - there won't be enough discounted packs to cover the demand. Whether the additional packs are being bought retail for 200 platinum or whether they're coming from constructed tournys at 200 platinum, they're still being bought at 200 platinum.

stiii
04-08-2014, 08:28 AM
It seems that everyone is ignoring supply vs. demand for the cheap packs. For the first week or so, the KS packs will create high supply and lower prices. Once those are redistributed and things start to equalize, the packs that can be sold for a profit at 126 platinum will be in very short supply.

Say you're an average player who doesn't have hundreds of KS packs stockpiled away. You buy a few packs and enter a draft tourny. You finish 2nd to win 4 packs (a nice above average result). Are you going to run to the auction house to sell those packs for 126 platinum, and then the next time you want to draft go out and buy some more packs at a price most likely more than 126 platinum, possibly even 200 platinum if nobody's selling packs on the AH at the moment?

Long term, if everyone's demand for packs is 100% met by the packs that are given out as tournament prizes, VIP, and other extremely limited discounted sources, then the game will be a colossal failure. If the demand is not met by these sources, then at least some of the time, some of the people will need to be buying packs at retail at 200 platinum. While this is happening, the price for packs should never get much below 200 platinum with the appropriate primal pack adjustment.

The problem with long term is that sets stop being legal for drafting after a certain point. One year for magic and probably the same for Hex. So in the long term of a year those KS packs won't be worth much at all. So the question becomes will the excess KS packs be used up before a year passes?

fido_one
04-08-2014, 08:33 AM
The problem with long term is that sets stop being legal for drafting after a certain point. One year for magic and probably the same for Hex. So in the long term of a year those KS packs won't be worth much at all. So the question becomes will the excess KS packs be used up before a year passes?

This is first set though - more than any other set in the history of HEX this set will skew the curve as far as booster values go in the long-term. I don't expect it to be as crazy as MTG's alpha/beta booster economy, but I do think this set will hold and/or increase value as time goes on [if HEX is successful].

noragar
04-08-2014, 08:57 AM
The problem with long term is that sets stop being legal for drafting after a certain point. One year for magic and probably the same for Hex. So in the long term of a year those KS packs won't be worth much at all. So the question becomes will the excess KS packs be used up before a year passes?

For the health of the game, the KS packs better be redistributed and used up in far less than a year. If they're not, that means that the population of players is virtually all KS backers with hardly any new players.

Yoss
04-08-2014, 10:17 AM
Note, they have announced 300p fee for Constructed already, but I can't seem to find the reference.


...For [Constructed] to be break even, a pack has to be worth at least 167 platinum.

This creates a strong attraction point for the market. If boosters are worth [less (typo corrected)] than that, people are less likely to play constructed events as they are just not profitable for the majority of the player base, reducing the amount of boosters introduced into the market by them. If drafting demand stays the same this means that boosters get scarcer on the market and prices are bound to increase, making drafting less economically desirable (due to the increased entry fee) and constructed events more attractive, shifting the balance back again. This creates a natural feedback loop that tends to hold secondary market values of boosters relatively stable, which is a good place to be.
Very nice analysis. I corrected a rather important typo there (see bold). Also, we still need to correct for Primal (divide by 1.075), making 167p become 156p.



Now an important question you might be asking yourself right now: Why would CZE introduce closed boosters at below store rates in constructed events. Aren't they just losing out on money then? The answer is, surprisingly: Not really...

...the entire market wouldn't look much different if the only source of boosters were constructed tournaments (once an initial card base has been established to allow people to even play in these).

Very nicely argued! I must say, this was the best post of the thread so far!


To summarize, in formula form similar to the other posts here:

Equilibrium Point due to Constructed
http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34329&page=5&p=350702&viewfull=1#post350702
Constructed introduces 12 unopened packs for 2400p, matching retail price.
However, the AH value of those packs is less. Goal is to break even selling off your prizes at AH.

CF := Constructed fee
WS := win rate of player, Swiss
W5 := win rate of player, 5-3-2-2
W8 := win rate of player, 8-4
PS := payout (in packs) in Swiss format
P5 := payout (in packs) in 5-3-2-2 format
P8 := payout (in packs) in 8-4 format
E := Expected value of playing Constructed

$3.00 = CF
60% = WS
56% = W5
54% = W8

1.8 = PS = 3*W
1.784832 = P5 = 5*W^3 + 3*W*W*(1-W) + 2*W*(1-W)
1.796256 = P8 = 8*W^3 + 4*W*W*(1-W)
1.793696 = average across the 3 formats

E = payout * price - fee
Set E to zero for equilibrium point. Above this AH price, Constructed is profitable.
$1.67 = Price = Fee / Payout
$1.56 = Price, minus primal

Yoss
04-08-2014, 10:23 AM
OP updated with the equilibrium point. Also note, once we have the live AH and know the AH price of boosters, you can use the formulae in post 53 to estimate your required win rate in a given prize format.

Yoss
04-10-2014, 10:04 AM
Data from the collection thread is showing a Primal rate more like 2% not 0.5% so our numbers here need to get a bit smaller. The divisor for Primal is 1.3 not 1.075.

Xenavire
04-10-2014, 10:09 AM
You might want to keep an eye on this weeks patch, paid tournaments and prizes are in for testing, and that will help fill in some gaps.

Yubar
04-10-2014, 05:54 PM
I think a lot of the analysis here breaks for set 1 and to a much lesser extent for set 2 due to the deluge of set 1 cards from Kickstarter (ascribing value only to packs is great for theory but unrealistic). This unaturally increases supply to a point that I believe will be much lower as people switch to plat (which is rational during the first set as demand will initially be sopped up by the glut making holding cards as opposed to plat very unattractive)

Yoss
04-21-2014, 12:38 PM
Beta comes this week! Sadly no AH though, so we can't test our hypotheses yet.

Of potential interest about Sealed:
http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34638&page=5&p=353480&viewfull=1#post353480

About chests:
http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34611&page=3&p=353454&viewfull=1#post353454

GhundiPI
04-22-2014, 02:04 AM
With gold being earned in tournaments during beta, I actually expect there to be a whole lot less unopened boosters than initially thought. The opportunity for guaranteed gold has made me reconsider on what to do with my packs, and I expect I'm not the only one.

This is going to be an interesting beta release on multiple aspects.

Slish
04-22-2014, 12:44 PM
I just wanna say. I read the two mainposts of LLCoolDave and some of Yoss. Although I don't understand all, amazing to see how u guys explained this stuff and tried and found out some of the respective values. :D

nicosharp
04-22-2014, 01:35 PM
I'd go as far to say the Set 1 packs could be more valuable than we think if saved for aftermarket sales.

The reasoning is that Set 2 is already well on its way to be released before this game goes mainstream, and potentially set 3 as well. If the game becomes as big of a hit as Hearthstone once all the features are in place, there could be a very high aftermarket value on the set 1 unopened packs a good year or two down the road.

This is entirely based upon if sets are limited release, and if draft and sealed queues only target the newest blocks/sets. If not, the value will still be under $2, but a lot closer to that mark.

Yoss
04-22-2014, 01:39 PM
Even if Set 2 is ready, I'm pretty sure it won't release until much later in the dev cycle for the game as a whole. CZE software guys will probably stay focused on adding missing features before coding up new PvP sets. Meanwhile, the "paper" dev guys will keep chugging away on Set 2, 3, 4... but they won't be coded.

hex_colin
04-22-2014, 01:42 PM
Even if Set 2 is ready, I'm pretty sure it won't release until much later in the dev cycle for the game as a whole. CZE software guys will probably stay focused on adding missing features before coding up new PvP sets. Meanwhile, the "paper" dev guys will keep chugging away on Set 2, 3, 4... but they won't be coded.

I'd go a step further - I'd be shocked if we see Set 2 before Release (not Beta) + 4 months.

Patrigan
04-22-2014, 01:49 PM
I'd go a step further - I'd be shocked if we see Set 2 before Release (not Beta) + 4 months.

I disagree with both you and Yoss. I think they're actively working on adding new possible cards. They have different teams for many purposes.

More importantly, every card that they develop for PvE, will make it easier for a similar card to be made in PvP.

Gwaer
04-22-2014, 02:02 PM
I haven't been expecting set 2 until release + 4 months. I think we're going to be messing with set 1 for a long long long long ​time.

Slish
04-22-2014, 02:05 PM
When does set2 gonna be released?
Im pretty sure Cory answered that question almost directly in an interview? He said something along the lines of: "The first year probably only around 2, maybe 3 sets will come out, after that the normal cycle of 1 set every 3-4months."

I probably worded that quote really bad. But does someone remember in which interview this was? Wasn't it in the latest interview with neo and jtatta?

Yoss
04-22-2014, 02:16 PM
When he said "the first year" he was referring to after Beta is over.

bojanglesz
04-22-2014, 02:22 PM
Playing with the first set for over a year is going to be miserable, but it's definitely going to happen. Not confident in CZE's ability to implement cards in a timely manner, but they'll get there eventually.

Daer
04-22-2014, 02:41 PM
It's not so much that CZE can't implement cards in a timely manner, it's that it isn't in their best interest to start releasing new sets until full launch.

knightofeffect
04-22-2014, 02:44 PM
I'd go a step further - I'd be shocked if we see Set 2 before Release (not Beta) + 4 months.

Well that's a bit disappointing, but I'll admit that other things are of much higher priority.

nicosharp
04-22-2014, 02:59 PM
I think my post was a bit misconstrued.
"The reasoning is that Set 2 is already well on its way to be released before this game goes mainstream, and potentially set 3 as well."

Meaning, the popularity of the game may not hit folks until retail is polished - not beta.

hex_colin
04-22-2014, 03:02 PM
Well that's a bit disappointing, but I'll admit that other things are of much higher priority.

It has little to do with priority and everything to do with giving everyone some amount of time with Set 1. Otherwise you'll get people who won't jump in until "Release" and then they'll be X number of sets behind and it'll make it more challenging for them to catch-up. Of course, that's a perennial problem with TCGs anyway, but I just don't think you want "Release" to coincide with Set 2 or 3.

hex_colin
04-22-2014, 03:03 PM
I disagree with both you and Yoss. I think they're actively working on adding new possible cards. They have different teams for many purposes.

More importantly, every card that they develop for PvE, will make it easier for a similar card to be made in PvP.

Oh, they'll be making the cards (and they already are for Sets 2 and 3). It'll just be a significant time before we see them.

Xenavire
04-22-2014, 03:10 PM
Oh, they'll be making the cards (and they already are for Sets 2 and 3). It'll just be a significant time before we see them.

I agree with this completely - they will always be several sets ahead once they are in the right groove (which actually will help them balance things, because they can still be tweaked before release, and they can look at a much broader range of cards all the same time.)

Plus the design will always be far ahead of the programming. So set 5 could be fully planned long before set 3 is released, meaning a whole set in between has been waiting in limbo - just waiting for set 3 to clear so it can enter the game itself.

Gwaer
04-22-2014, 03:10 PM
Oh, they'll be making the cards (and they already are for Sets 2 and 3). It'll just be a significant time before we see them.
...Well, until the rest of us see them. =P

shocker455
04-22-2014, 04:36 PM
In the interview a few weeks ago didn't Cory say set 2 will probably be released 3 months after open beta starts. Possabily even sooner because a worry is people will get bored of set one. They want set 2 to be out asap, the only reason they will delay it if they dont feel they can puch out a new set every 3 months after set 2 comes out.

Gwaer
04-22-2014, 04:45 PM
I don't remember that bit. I guess he could have said it, and it didn't click for me though.

shocker455
04-22-2014, 06:04 PM
In the interview a few weeks ago didn't Cory say set 2 will probably be released 3 months after open beta starts. Possabily even sooner because a worry is people will get bored of set one. They want set 2 to be out asap, the only reason they will delay it if they dont feel they can puch out a new set every 3 months after set 2 comes out.
http://www.twitch.tv/infam0usne0/c/3993834
50-53 minutes is when he talks about it

Gwaer
04-22-2014, 06:16 PM
Yea, he does say that set 2 might come out 3 months from monetized beta. I kind of hope that's not the case, because it can be very off putting to see a game released with a huge catalog of cards to get caught up on. I'd rather see release with just set 1, but it will get very boring for those of us that have already been playing with the set one cards for almost a year.

Xenavire
04-22-2014, 06:59 PM
Yea, he does say that set 2 might come out 3 months from monetized beta. I kind of hope that's not the case, because it can be very off putting to see a game released with a huge catalog of cards to get caught up on. I'd rather see release with just set 1, but it will get very boring for those of us that have already been playing with the set one cards for almost a year.

I think that anything under 1000 cards should be fairly easy to catch up on. I think anything more than a block is going to be very intimidating. So I think the line wouldn't be crossed by releasing set 2 on launch day, or within a few weeks (it could add to the excitement of reaching the official launch.)

Although I don't know how much the PvE cards will factor into the numbers - will people be intimidated by cards that they might not even use?

Gorgol
04-22-2014, 09:31 PM
Yea, he does say that set 2 might come out 3 months from monetized beta. I kind of hope that's not the case, because it can be very off putting to see a game released with a huge catalog of cards to get caught up on. I'd rather see release with just set 1, but it will get very boring for those of us that have already been playing with the set one cards for almost a year.
so set 2 might be out as soon as 3 months from now? sweet

katkillad
04-23-2014, 09:57 AM
Releasing sets of cards while still in beta is dumb.

Josua
04-23-2014, 10:24 AM
Releasing sets of cards while still in beta is dumb.

Releasing sets of cards while still in closed beta is dumb.

The way I see it (and please, do correct me if I'm wrong), Beta's focus will be on PVP with release having a focus on PVE. So, while I agree that non-Kickstarter, PVP gamers may be put off by having multiple sets added before they are able to interact with any of them (closed beta), I see no reason that they wouldn't be happy with getting in on things with a monetized open beta since nothing gets wiped and most of the necessary PVP features will be in place by that point (if not all?). If the sets were added at this point, I don't see any real issues.

My thoughts:

Closed Beta - No new sets added since not all of the players would have access. Play with set one using additional features as added to keep things "fresh." Time spent building up collections and trying new decks while waiting for open beta.

Open Beta - Set 2 added with or shortly after. Things are fresh for those who participated in closed beta, and newcomers aren't overwhelmed.

Full Launch - Sets 2 and 3 have been released keeping things fresh for PVPers. PVE players shouldn't feel overwhelmed since it's just like any MMO that has a plethora of weapons at your disposal; you don't need to know and use them all.

sukebe
04-23-2014, 06:49 PM
snip.

Well said, I agree with you wholeheartedly :-)

fido_one
04-25-2014, 03:04 PM
Releasing sets of cards while still in beta is dumb.

Right. I was in the 'keep set 1 cards camp' myself, and having just fired up Solforge in a while, I'm [still] squarely/more-so in that camp.

I was/am... disappointed with Solforge for reasons discussed on other threads, but I was still rooting for it. I had cracked my beta packs, learned the mechanics and decided the P2W element was way too strong but thought I'd let it cook in beta for a bit before returning.

Not having tournies in Hex right now had me just go back to it. ...and seeing that they released an expansion (read: set 2) I bopped in, looked around and then got out of the game and said 'I'm done for good'.

It was too much to figure out the new items added to beta (the game is still incomplete) and then feel like I'm already behind on a rotation with the expansion. When realizing that hit me, I said 'oh man, I don't want to get into this money hole' and was able to wash my hands clean of Solforge. I get 'new' sets, but am now a full vote for 'only after the game has been released to the public and refined' before releasing set 2.

Turtlewing
04-25-2014, 03:17 PM
Yea, he does say that set 2 might come out 3 months from monetized beta. I kind of hope that's not the case, because it can be very off putting to see a game released with a huge catalog of cards to get caught up on. I'd rather see release with just set 1, but it will get very boring for those of us that have already been playing with the set one cards for almost a year.

I don't know that reasoning really holds. Magic is always getting new players in spite of having a really long history.

You just start with whatever the current set is and go from there, maybe pick up some older staples in the AH.

Yubar
04-25-2014, 03:29 PM
I agree with set 2 being released in beta, 2 sets with a third looming when the game launches seems fair. Besides some of these indie games cam stay in beta for awhile.

But what is really higher priority than set 2 right now. I'd argue behind tourneys, trading and auction house it's pretty close to next. One could argue Guilds I guess but without player made tourneys and PvE I think it can wait imo. It's a toss up between Guilds and Set 2 I suppose.

mudkip
04-25-2014, 03:40 PM
But what is really higher priority than set 2 right now. I'd argue behind tourneys, trading and auction house it's pretty close to next. One could argue Guilds I guess but without player made tourneys and PvE I think it can wait imo.

Agree with this priority, I think trading will be the next big milestone. AH is just a special case of trading; people can use the forums till then.


Edit: on topic, I'm not expecting the price of packs to be anywhere near the floor value. I'm seriously surprised that so many people opened all 155.

stiii
04-25-2014, 04:04 PM
I guess the real question is what counts as a huge catalog of cards. I think we would be fine with three sets out to give a decent constructed format at least.

fido_one
04-25-2014, 04:40 PM
I don't know that reasoning really holds. Magic is always getting new players in spite of having a really long history.

You just start with whatever the current set is and go from there, maybe pick up some older staples in the AH.

But MTG was/is fully cooked. I think it becomes much worse with Hex because as much as I love it, it's not done. Solforge really drove that point home - the combination of figuring out the new functionality on a broken game (as it is still in development) and then another set with some new angles to the card play was just too much.

Voormas
04-25-2014, 05:07 PM
I hope that we get Set 2 juuuuuust before Release, with that being not too long after we go into Open Beta - if I was a totally new player who only just found out about this game (probably because a bunch of people joined the Open Beta and there is a lot of buzz going around) then I would be happy to spend real monies on digi-cardboard in that situation, but if I thought a third set was just around the corner (significantly less than 3 months away) I would probably just wait / skip it and see if the buzz holds out

Gwaer
04-25-2014, 05:45 PM
Actually the large amount of magic cards is a force that keeps new players away, it's positively daunting. Granted not all players, just many. And if you want to pick up non tcg people, the number of cards is going to impact that group a lot more than magic players.

mudkip
04-25-2014, 06:43 PM
Actually the large amount of magic cards is a force that keeps new players away, it's positively daunting. Granted not all players, just many. And if you want to pick up non tcg people, the number of cards is going to impact that group a lot more than magic players.

I've always been fascinated by Magic, but this is partly the reason I don't bother and also a MAJOR contributor to what drew me to Hex. It's a cool feeling to be here from the start!

Yoss
05-02-2014, 12:54 PM
It seems like people are generally opening their packs rather than saving them, due to Draft being broken and no AH yet. I wonder how many of the 1.7 million packs are still unopened. Something tells me that sub-$1 packs, if they were going to happen, no longer will happen.

nicosharp
05-02-2014, 01:13 PM
It seems like people are generally opening their packs rather than saving them, due to Draft being broken and no AH yet. I wonder how many of the 1.7 million packs are still unopened. Something tells me that sub-$1 packs, if they were going to happen, no longer will happen.
Depends on the games lasting popularity and how long we are exclusively using set 1, before set 2's release. The compulsive pack crackers are probably only a small % of the backers. As many may not be using the beta client yet. Only time will tell.

hex_colin
05-02-2014, 01:28 PM
It seems like people are generally opening their packs rather than saving them, due to Draft being broken and no AH yet. I wonder how many of the 1.7 million packs are still unopened. Something tells me that sub-$1 packs, if they were going to happen, no longer will happen.

I've been saying that all along. If they did/do, they'll be snapped up so quickly anyway.

bojanglesz
05-02-2014, 03:21 PM
I've been saying that all along. If they did/do, they'll be snapped up so quickly anyway.

You knew tournaments were going to break and didn't warn us?

Idus
05-02-2014, 03:21 PM
People are putting too little emphasis on the need to have PvE out before progressing to future sets. Cory has stated the PvE progression and story will align with set progression. You can't just say that it'll provide more PvE content when it's released, as that's like saying you can just have all Star Wars movies completed and let half the population watch them, before the other half can even start.

Also, I'm not exactly sure how long you'll be able to buy set 1 boosters for. I would assume PvP cards help in PvE. If you have set 1 about to rotate out before the PvE players can even get a handle on what cards they need or want, there will be resentment that PvE players are not able to buy the packs they need in a timely manner.

There has already been enough angst on the forums about PvE being treated as a second class citizen, and Cory has assured us that's not the case. So saying "The PvE players can catch up" is not the way to go.

hex_colin
05-02-2014, 03:24 PM
You knew tournaments were going to break and didn't warn us?

No, I'd consistently called sub-$1 boosters "mythical", and said that if they ever got to that price point they'd be gone instantly. I'd buy every one I could find, and I know of a few others that would do the same.

blakegrandon
05-02-2014, 03:32 PM
No, I'd consistently called sub-$1 boosters "mythical", and said that if they ever got to that price point they'd be gone instantly. I'd buy every one I could find, and I know of a few others that would do the same.

You never know, the russian mail order bride business could use the boosters to engage in their perfectly legal money laundering operations...

Easiest way to wash money is to "lose" value on it by selling a ton of stuff at a "loss"

mudkip
05-02-2014, 04:36 PM
No, I'd consistently called sub-$1 boosters "mythical", and said that if they ever got to that price point they'd be gone instantly. I'd buy every one I could find, and I know of a few others that would do the same.

I super agree with this now that I've seen how many people have opened all their packs.

stiii
05-02-2014, 07:19 PM
I don't think anyone was ever offering packs for below $1. While $1 is probably a bit low it is a lot more reasonable than $1.5 and less fiddly than $1.15 or whatever.

hex_colin
05-02-2014, 09:24 PM
I don't think anyone was ever offering packs for below $1. While $1 is probably a bit low it is a lot more reasonable than $1.5 and less fiddly than $1.15 or whatever.

There were lots of discussions of it going into the 0.70's and 0.80's, and there were definitely people soliciting sales at sub-$1 levels. I have/had a number of agreements to purchase packs... with folks who don't seem to remember them at this point. ;)

UDareUTake
05-02-2014, 10:57 PM
If there were really packs going at below $1, I'll snap them up as well :)

Bells
05-02-2014, 11:03 PM
any boosters for 0.90 or less i would pick up on the spot.

Yoss
05-03-2014, 01:34 PM
People are putting too little emphasis on the need to have PvE out before progressing to future sets. Cory has stated the PvE progression and story will align with set progression.

You've got this right. They are tied together, so it seems reasonable to think that we won't see Set 2 until at least a little while after PvE comes. Maybe a week after. :p

The_Lannisters
05-03-2014, 01:35 PM
1.25 and no discount for buying 50, 100 or whatever seems quite expensive.

Yoss
05-03-2014, 01:36 PM
Expensive meaning you don't agree with the math, or expensive meaning you're unhappy to pay that much?

The_Lannisters
05-03-2014, 01:53 PM
I'm not informed about US$ pricing in this instance so I might be completely off base but it tends to be the case with games that the European prices are higher.

Be that as it may 5 ( 4.99 ) for 4 packs seems like a lot when you consider you'd want to buy at least five or ten fold that amount to "have some fun" opening packs and/or drafting ( and getting some cards you need )

Disclaimer --> I'm a n00b :-)

Yoss
05-03-2014, 02:30 PM
Ah, you're saying you don't want to pay so much. This thread isn't the place to complain about it. Here we're just speculating/calculating what prices will be, not so much worried about what they should be.

dogmod
05-03-2014, 03:26 PM
I'm not informed about US$ pricing in this instance so I might be completely off base but it tends to be the case with games that the European prices are higher.

Be that as it may 5 ( 4.99 ) for 4 packs seems like a lot when you consider you'd want to buy at least five or ten fold that amount to "have some fun" opening packs and/or drafting ( and getting some cards you need )

Disclaimer --> I'm a n00b :-)

Well if you look at comparable products such as Magic the Gathering or Hearthstone then Hex is very reasonably and competitively priced.

Of course we all want all the things :)

The_Lannisters
05-04-2014, 05:54 AM
Yes, I'm so so sorry, still figuring out things. Also, it seems that Europe has not been screwed up with the shop pricing.

I understand that it'll be interesting to see what prices you will get when buying from other players at the AH and so on and the impact of gold trade. I guess you cannot focus so much on shop prices when there is a trading system in place. My bad.

Bells
05-04-2014, 11:47 AM
Looking over this thread i'm not seeing much solid info on the potential pricing for Primal Packs... sorry if i miss it, but is it being discussed at all?

stiii
05-04-2014, 12:58 PM
Primals are even more of a guess than normal packs.

As you can draft with them you need to know the average price of what you get in a primal pack. Do we even have data for what you get on average out of one?

LLCoolDave
05-04-2014, 01:03 PM
Looking over this thread i'm not seeing much solid info on the potential pricing for Primal Packs... sorry if i miss it, but is it being discussed at all?

A Primal pack contains 2/23 possible legendaries and 13/106 possible rares. Its value should therefore be roughly about 1/10 of the price of a full set of set 1 (1 of each card) as a basic guideline. Extrapolating from my experiences with MTGO and the preorder prices established by the hextcgpro shop I expect a set of Set 1 to be around $130-$150, which would place the value of primals at around $13-$15 or 8-9 boosters. There's a chance people will value them higher because they are among the rarest assets in the game, and you can always dream of opening really big with them. Plus guaranteed legendary chests might have some actual value once we establish some loot tables.

Basically, the value of primal packs are hard to establish because they rely heavily on other uncertain estimates we have made on the market so far. I wouldn't be surprised to be way off on them, but I think they'll be at least $10 for a while and probably under $20, but there's a lot of uncertainty involved in this.

Bells
05-04-2014, 01:36 PM
It's weird though...

High level players won't be buying primals... a single primal can net you a whole draft, plus most of them already have the legendaries and rares they want or they buy singles.

New players are more likely to want 10 normal boosters vs 1 primal simply because it's 150 cards and chests vs 15 . and you do get 10 chances at legendary cards and chests... so there is that.

So, i think Primals will be a novely with a very stable price actually... there is not going to be a rush to buy these... they are rare in the market anyway, so there is not much competition to lower the price, there will be regular boosters on the market at lower prices so that makes primals even less appealing...

Even repeats factor in... if i want to have more chances of forming a SET of a certain rare, even a legendary, i need to go regular... there ain't going to be much repeats in a primal...

And more invested players will hold on to their primals to crack them during events anyway... which will make even less primal packs appear in the market.

So, we are very likely going to see the occasional odd primal popping up for $9-15 coming from a player that is trying to put cash together for something else and doesn't really require anything from the primal or just rather sell a pack of 15 random rares to get his one or two guaranatee staples on the AH.

Lawlschool
05-04-2014, 03:18 PM
Looking over this thread i'm not seeing much solid info on the potential pricing for Primal Packs... sorry if i miss it, but is it being discussed at all?

Primals are definitely in a weird place. I'd think the expected value of a primal to be 2*Avg value of Legendaries + 13*Avg value of Rares + some mark-up for the chest. Whatever that is should be the base amount. $10 - $20 doesn't sound unreasonable for a Primal, but that could be high or low depending on the aggregate worth of the Legendaries and Rares.

sukebe
05-04-2014, 03:58 PM
People are putting too little emphasis on the need to have PvE out before progressing to future sets. Cory has stated the PvE progression and story will align with set progression. You can't just say that it'll provide more PvE content when it's released, as that's like saying you can just have all Star Wars movies completed and let half the population watch them, before the other half can even start.

Also, I'm not exactly sure how long you'll be able to buy set 1 boosters for. I would assume PvP cards help in PvE. If you have set 1 about to rotate out before the PvE players can even get a handle on what cards they need or want, there will be resentment that PvE players are not able to buy the packs they need in a timely manner.

There has already been enough angst on the forums about PvE being treated as a second class citizen, and Cory has assured us that's not the case. So saying "The PvE players can catch up" is not the way to go.

They may advance the story only when the block changes. The first 3 sets will all be considered part of the same block. If this the is the case they could easily release set 2 before PVE was finished. Personally, I would rather have set 2 release 3 weeks after open beta instead of closed beta.

Also, someone mentioned something about the rotation of sets happening to fast if they release set 2 in 3 weeks. I wouldnt worry about this as I am fairly certain CZE said rotation would occur once the third block is introduced (set 7-9). This is similar to how mtg rotates its sets.

Yoss
05-04-2014, 04:03 PM
Primals are definitely in a weird place. I'd think the expected value of a primal to be 2*Avg value of Legendaries + 13*Avg value of Rares + some mark-up for the chest. Whatever that is should be the base amount. $10 - $20 doesn't sound unreasonable for a Primal, but that could be high or low depending on the aggregate worth of the Legendaries and Rares.

This is my thinking on it. I don't think we'll be able to do any better than that until we have real singles values from the live AH. The HTCGP pre-sales are a guideline but seem rather overpriced in aggregate. (Certain cards may be under as indicated by the sold-out items, but most are over their TMV. Most commons will not be $0.10 for example.)