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YourOpponent
04-06-2014, 07:36 PM
So has anybody started speculating the cost of what the Lotus Garden will be worth in terms of Platinum? I'm just curious because a friend of mine wasn't able to KS the game but he is thinking of playing the game at a later time and I was thinking of trading some booster packs for a lotus garden for him since they are tradeable.


I'm guessing they won't be anymore than 5,000 platinum. Within the first month.

Aradon
04-06-2014, 07:40 PM
The speculation's been all over the place, from what I've seen. Some people demanding 200+ for theirs, if they'd sell at all, while others guessing closer to your 50. I think after two months or so, 35-50 will be about standard, but I don't really have any basis for that speculation other than my own personal valuing.

stiii
04-06-2014, 08:57 PM
50 seems reasonable to me, but like Aradon said it is all guess work at this point.

DanTheMeek
04-06-2014, 10:32 PM
Speculation is indeed all over the place, but I think what it will really come down to is how much the daily produced spectral lotus cards sell for. If you plan to be a PvP exclusive player, and thus have no need of the lotus, its still a potentially continuous source of income for the life of the game, and knowing how much they are selling for can then be multiplied out per day to get an idea on how much you'd be giving up long term by selling the garden now. Of course there's still other factors, like the fact that unlike most cards, the lotus are one and done cards, and thus they self regulate themselves. Further, the number of players who play the game will "in theory" always be increasing, while the number of people who own gardens will not, so in theory the price of the lotus flowers themselves will only continue to escalate.

However, if the individual lotus don't sell, or don't sell for plat at least, that will encourage the PvP only players to both be more likely to part with the gardens' as they serve no other benefit to them, and to do so at a reasonable price. that said, I highly doubt anyone's going to just give them away, and further, if we have a going rate for gold to plat at that point, and the lotus are selling for gold, it will still be possible to get a rough idea of what keeping the garden to sell the lotus will be worth. Further, do to the inherent nature of an auction house, even if a few players are willing to put their gardens on auction with a low start bid, theres not telling how fierce the bidding could get among potential buyers. Even if the lotus it generate reach a point of saturation where they aren't considered very valuable, the gardens themselves are still a very unique and exclusive item, and exclusivity has a tendency to drive up the price on things regardless of their inherent value. Still that's probably the best case scenario for people hoping to acquire the garden.

Personally, I can't really see myself ever parting with my garden, regardless of what the lotus themselves sell for. Aside from the fact I do plan to PvE (probably more then I PvP if PvE is half as good as I hope it will be), its a part of hex history that shows I was here when it all began (heck, before it all began). If there are others who feel as I do, that will only further the scarcity of the garden and drive prices up so for your friends sake I hope I'm in the minority.

Zer0
04-07-2014, 04:01 AM
I'm feeling that spectral lotus gardens will become a super rare card later in the game's life. Similar to MTG's power 9, the number of gardens will stay the same (or decrease as people quit playing), while the number of players will only continue to rise.

On the other hand, there's gonna be several thousand of them. My feelin is that the lotus petals are gonna be flooding the market for months after launch.

Ravenclaw
04-07-2014, 07:11 AM
I want 4 Spectral Lotuses for my collection then im fine (if i can get them), but you guys are right.
The price for cards like "Pectral Lotus Garden" can explode. I think the longer HEX exists the higher will the prices become for the Gardens. But the prices can get high for the Spectral Lotuses as well if the number of players rise fast after launch of the game. We will see. My only hope is i get 4 of the nice Spectral Lotuses! ;)

Kami
04-07-2014, 07:45 AM
On the other hand, there's gonna be several thousand of them. My feelin is that the lotus petals are gonna be flooding the market for months after launch.

There's about 10,111 of them. Probably less now as some have refunded.

That's at least 10k lotuses daily if people log in.

I doubt they will ever be 'rare'. You'd need at least 100k players for it to be truly rare. :/

hex_colin
04-07-2014, 07:51 AM
There's about 10,111 of them. Probably less now as some have refunded.

That's at least 10k lotuses daily if people log in.

I doubt they will ever be 'rare'. You'd need at least 100k players for it to be truly rare. :/

Lots of avid PVEers will want 4 of them, so that they have 4 to use every day (if needed). That's quickly going to reduce the number of unique people with them.

And... there will be 100,000 users within months (if not weeks) of actual release.

TL;DR - Lotus Gardens will be really rare, really quickly.

Cernz
04-07-2014, 08:00 AM
lets hope ure right colin 100k + users would be awesome :)

Aradon
04-07-2014, 09:02 AM
Their price will be self-restricting, though. As the price goes up, more players will be less willing to activate them, reducing the demand. Another complicating factor is going to be how the whole PvE market plays out. We still don't know much of anything about the supply or demand of equipment itself. What are the drop rates going to be like? What will the secondary market for valuable raid loot be like? Without knowing the value of the rewards, how interested are people going to be to burn lotuses in getting to them? I mean, if the expected value of a piece of raid loot is 100 plat, we can't really expect a single lotus to be worth more than that. And if the value of a lotus is less than 100 plat, how low does it go before they just sell for gold, and PvE players can just buy them for gold instead of spending plat on an actual Garden.

Way too hard to speculate on this right now, in my opinion.

Zer0
04-07-2014, 10:40 AM
Their price will be self-restricting, though. As the price goes up, more players will be less willing to activate them, reducing the demand. Another complicating factor is going to be how the whole PvE market plays out. We still don't know much of anything about the supply or demand of equipment itself. What are the drop rates going to be like? What will the secondary market for valuable raid loot be like? Without knowing the value of the rewards, how interested are people going to be to burn lotuses in getting to them? I mean, if the expected value of a piece of raid loot is 100 plat, we can't really expect a single lotus to be worth more than that. And if the value of a lotus is less than 100 plat, how low does it go before they just sell for gold, and PvE players can just buy them for gold instead of spending plat on an actual Garden.

Way too hard to speculate on this right now, in my opinion.

Dont forget too, out of those 10,000 gardens or so, many people will probably keep a decent supply of petals available for themselves and probably dole some out to friends/guildmates before they start selling them. I know i'll keep a playset or 2 handy for particularly difficult raids. That makes it even harder to speculate how the prices will pan out.

Also will there be an aftermarket for the panthers? They seem like decent troops too haha.

loopholist3
04-07-2014, 10:57 AM
Something that I think is going to affect the price more early on than people are expecting is the fact that PvE is being released after PvP. This means most players are going to have fairly strong decks going into PvE. Spectral lotus is going to be a fast way to make these already established decks slightly stronger. So if the early dungeons are easy but time consuming, then players are not going to feel the need for a little bit of added power and the price will be low. If you can get to the slightly difficult dungeons relatively quickly, then there is going to be a high demand for a card that can add a little bit of power to every deck. The lotus garden value will then be determined by the value of the lotus itself. I think it will be somewhere around the price of 50 lotus's.

tilde
04-07-2014, 12:41 PM
Also will there be an aftermarket for the panthers? They seem like decent troops too haha.
4 panthers can be turned into lotus petals, but only by someone with a lotus garden. It makes for an interesting secondary market as a transmutation of 16 Panthers should cost less than 4 "new" lotus petals, but it's more work for the Lotus garden owner than just checking in once a day.

Xenavire
04-07-2014, 12:56 PM
4 panthers can be turned into lotus petals, but only by someone with a lotus garden. It makes for an interesting secondary market as a transmutation of 16 Panthers should cost less than 4 "new" lotus petals, but it's more work for the Lotus garden owner than just checking in once a day.

Well, I personally will be keeping a set of Tigers. I feel that any PvE players will keep a set if they have any decks that are worth running them in.

Yoss
04-07-2014, 01:11 PM
Well, I personally will be keeping a set of Tigers. I feel that any PvE players will keep a set if they have any decks that are worth running them in.

Any deck that wants to run a Tiger would rather run (and use) a Lotus, right? If your goal is to play a Tiger, why not do it for free plus cantrips?

Kilo24
04-07-2014, 01:19 PM
Any deck that wants to run a Tiger would rather run (and use) a Lotus, right? If your goal is to play a Tiger, why not do it for free plus cantrips?

Because Spectral Lotus is practically an auto-include in every deck already so they'll likely already have 4 in there, and because doing it for "free" involves the permanent loss of a better card?

Xenavire
04-07-2014, 01:30 PM
As Kilo mentioned, having a set of 4 Tigers + 4 Lotuses means 8 cantrip effects (the Tiger is also colourless, which means it can be splashed anywhere). I think the Tigers are amazing, and I will be sincerely shocked if I can't find a use for them alongside of the lotuses.

Yoss
04-07-2014, 01:36 PM
Ah, the 8-of trick. That's a good reason, thanks.

Xenavire
04-07-2014, 01:38 PM
Ah, the 8-of trick. That's a good reason, thanks.

I actually think that if there aren't any solid PvE cards with a cantrip effect at a low rarity, then the Tigers will be a staple card. So it might be a good one to remember later on when we are getting the first card reveals.

Kami
04-08-2014, 05:59 AM
There's another factor to consider for Lotus Gardens. The fact that trading/AH will be walled off.

Just a thought.

AstaSyneri
04-14-2014, 05:49 AM
It's pretty obvious that there is no telling yet. IMHO the value will largely be determined by the power of alternatives to this card. The way things shape up, in PvE (I just read through some of the exclusive KS award cards) there are bound to be a bunch of alternatives to make ultra-powerful decks (by virtue of the equipment).

YourOpponent
04-14-2014, 09:59 AM
It's pretty obvious that there is no telling yet. IMHO the value will largely be determined by the power of alternatives to this card. The way things shape up, in PvE (I just read through some of the exclusive KS award cards) there are bound to be a bunch of alternatives to make ultra-powerful decks (by virtue of the equipment).

Right, but you see one of the main uses of spectral lotus is for the purpose of deck thinning. Many people will be using it for if nothing else a zero cost card that draws a card...and just enjoy the (3/0) as an extra perk. I don't think most people with the lotus gardens will be interested in the black tiger part of it. Although some will surely play the tiger too so that it's more like a zero cost loss to of effectively drawn 2 cards from what you normally would of done for that turn....things like that are incredibly hard to compete against.

Turtlewing
04-14-2014, 12:26 PM
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if beyond the first 2 months there isn't much of a market for lotus gardens at all.

Once the ones that are initially in the hands of players who don't want them get sold off there's no reason to ever part with the garden unless you're "cashing out" your account. At it's least useful a lotus garden generates passive income for as long as you play Hex.

Also I could see a lot of the gardens ending up in the hands of guilds, since being able to issue 4 lotuses to each member of a raid is the sort of thing a raiding guild might invest in being able to do. And a "garden bot" (similar to the "ban bot" in MMOs that don't provide guild banks) that gets logged in daily to generate the lotuses and distribute them to members would be a more efficient use of the gardens than having individual members manage their own gardens (and invariably miss days when the can't log in for whatever reason).