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Westane
04-11-2014, 11:02 AM
So I'm mostly just making this post to see if other people's opinions line up with my own, and to get a feel for peoples' thoughts in general.

I've been an advocate of MTGO for the last 10 years, writing about it, defending it as a legitimate form of play, etc. I don't have a LGS, nearest being 2.5 hours away, and I'm a dad, and I work full time... For me, MTGO is (was) the only way for me to play my favorite game. Over time, between WotC's horrible support of their own product, the community's perception of MTGO as nothing more than a way to "test" for "real" Magic, and market hoarders driving the price of pixels up over $100 a copy, I decided I had enough.

Enter Hex. I was ECSTATIC when I found this project and intend to make it my new go-to card game.

Anyway, I'm wondering what people think the singles market is going to look like in Hex. Here's my thoughts:

No Perceived Value
This one is huge, I think. In MTGO you have the mindset where "Well if Force of Will is a $75 card on paper it must be worth about that online as well", and so, it is. Since Hex cards begin life digitally, we have nothing to compare it to, and in fact, will likely perceive card values to be much lower than we would paper cards if only for the way us Westerners value digital products to begin with.

Price of Packaged Product
$1.99 for a 15 card booster pack is huge, and that's based on the 1st Party market. Never mind the huge influx of Kickstarter packs, VIP packs, etc. There's already been plenty of discussion on the secondary market price of booster packs so I won't bother, but this also effectively means that 2-2.5x the amount of cards will be entering the system at any given time than in other TCG's. Also, Primal Packs are a thing.

No Cashing Out
It seems much less convenient to "cash out" in Hex than elsewhere. I'm sure there will be online markets will to buy complete collections and chase singles, but I don't see it being as large as other markets. Without the idea that people can horde singles based on the possibility of a value spike, the value of singles should remain pretty steady. I know this will still happen, I just don't imagine it will be very prolific.

I would like to believe that the average cost of good Legendary cards will cap out in the $10-$15 range, and I'm really curious as to what others think.

wasichu
04-11-2014, 11:16 AM
Well for me a card in hand will always be more valuable than digital. And for something digital even if its a card like Vampire King I wouldn't pay more than five or six for it. But some peeps are loaded and make 6 figures a year so to them a 20 dollar card is like a cup of coffee and will pay.
It really will come down to supply and demand. And if it gets to unreasonable than cryptizoic can add that card in a say starter deck to drop it down to earth again.

Xenavire
04-11-2014, 11:36 AM
As long as the price of singles relates directly to the cost of boosters (except in borderline cases) then I am happy. I don't want to be paying MTG costs for Hex cards when Hex costs half as much as MTG.

I don't mind that what I sell will be worth less. I just care about getting into competitive play in an affordable manner.

Lonenut
04-11-2014, 11:45 AM
Price of singles will be HUGELY impacted by how many players there are.

The best case scenario is that there's 100,000x as many players as there were kickstarters. Lots of those people are mostly going to be "free to play" players who aren't aggressively drafting boosters, but might want to buy a competitive deck every cycle or so. Those guys will spike the value of singles.

Gwaer
04-11-2014, 12:28 PM
I don't think we need 1 billion 700 million players at launch to have a functioning market.

RobHaven
04-11-2014, 12:42 PM
Agreed. I'd settle for a smooth 1 billion.

Niedar
04-11-2014, 12:51 PM
A 10-15 dollar cap on legendary cards seems fine to me.

jtatta
04-11-2014, 01:46 PM
I'll share some insight on my thought process as I started to price out the HexTCGPro online store.

Rares won't hold a lot of value, at least the average ones. Highly played rares such as Xentoth's Inquisitor may be in the $5-$7 range but you can expect to get any rare you want for a very reasonable price. The reason for that is the supply for rares will far outnumber the demand once all the Kickstarter packs start flowing.

Legendary cards will be a different story. I think that Angel of Dawn will be the highest price card because of casual appeal as well as being one of the best (if not the best) card in the game. I fully expect Angel of Dawn to get sold in the ~$15.00 range and maintain that value if not even go up after a major tournament showcases her. Vampire King also has casual appeal as well as tournament value but I don't think as much as the Angel but should still hold value in the $12.00 range. Basically, the Legendary cards that are played in top tier tournament decks will be in the $10-$20 range but I don't expect any set 1 cards to get higher than that mainly due to the supply.

- John

Idus
04-11-2014, 01:52 PM
I did some pure maths analysis on card rarity based on the test figures we're seeing from the last 2 patches for legendary & primal distribution, and using an AH price for boosters of $1.50 platinum. The big wild card will be the value of treasure chests, as we've had no info to base an assumption on, so I just used a similar distribution as card rarities and assumed a similar demand.

Using some reverse engineering, I set a fixed price on Primals of $30, and treasure chests at $0.20. Based on these assumptions, I came up with the following average figures :-

Legendary $11.25
Rare $1.25
Uncommon $0.02
Common $0.01 (essentially worthless ($0.0008), but if we can't sell in bulk, that'd be the minimum AH price)

The second unknown is what impact crafting will have in playing a demand from the PvE crowd. I can actually see PvE demand having a significant impact on AH prices, primarily for chest, but also if Crypto make PvP cards a core part of the PvE experience as well for crafting or as I indicated in another thread, for something like a special "Iron Man" dungeon.

Gwaer
04-11-2014, 01:58 PM
I'd just like to say all of this is crazy wild speculation. Feel free to do it, but people really shouldn't expect these prices, they could be much lower or much higher, or much lower one day and higher the next, the market will likely be extremely volatile early on, and everyone is just going to sort of have to expect that.


I can't stop people from being "absolutely certain" about the prices of cards, but in this sort of brand new market situation it's very likely you can put a lot of money into a sure thing and end up with nothing. So I'd be very careful if anyone is thinking about "investing" early for a big pay off.

That is to say if you see legendaries day 1 going for 20 cents a piece... I'd think very hard before you invest your next two months paychecks into buying them all up, because they'll be worth 10+ bucks next week each.

jtatta
04-11-2014, 02:00 PM
I did some pure maths analysis on card rarity based on the test figures we're seeing from the last 2 patches for legendary & primal distribution, and using an AH price for boosters of $1.50 platinum. The big wild card will be the value of treasure chests, as we've had no info to base an assumption on, so I just used a similar distribution as card rarities and assumed a similar demand.

Using some reverse engineering, I set a fixed price on Primals of $30, and treasure chests at $0.20. Based on these assumptions, I came up with the following average figures :-

Legendary $11.25
Rare $1.25
Uncommon $0.02
Common $0.01 (essentially worthless ($0.0008), but if we can't sell in bulk, that'd be the minimum AH price)

The second unknown is what impact crafting will have in playing a demand from the PvE crowd. I can actually see PvE demand having a significant impact on AH prices, primarily for chest, but also if Crypto make PvP cards a core part of the PvE experience as well for crafting or as I indicated in another thread, for something like a special "Iron Man" dungeon.

This is more or less what I came to as well.

jtatta
04-11-2014, 02:08 PM
I'd just like to say all of this is crazy wild speculation. Feel free to do it, but people really shouldn't expect these prices, they could be much lower or much higher, or much lower one day and higher the next, the market will likely be extremely volatile early on, and everyone is just going to sort of have to expect that.


I can't stop people from being "absolutely certain" about the prices of cards, but in this sort of brand new market situation it's very likely you can put a lot of money into a sure thing and end up with nothing. So I'd be very careful if anyone is thinking about "investing" early for a big pay off.

That is to say if you see legendaries day 1 going for 20 cents a piece... I'd think very hard before you invest your next two months paychecks into buying them all up, because they'll be worth 10+ bucks next week each.

That's just business, really. I know that if I see Vampire King's and Angel of Dawn's going for ~$1.00 each I'm going to buy every single one of them. Really though I don't think that was really the point of your argument nor is it the point of mine. I do what to say though that players will have a perceived value of cards based on what secondary markets price them at for presales, if there will be any at all.

I know of at least two sites that will have an online store. While they aren't the sole market for cards, their influence on the value of cards will be very important early on. I think that if all the online stores sell Angel of Dawn for $15.00 then we can expect that to be approximately the value of Angel of Dawn, +/- a few dollars. That's why we won't be seeing them for absurdly low prices on the AH.

Like you said though, nothing is for certain. People can math out what the expected price is and just go from there.

- John

LLCoolDave
04-11-2014, 02:11 PM
I might write some more detailed analysis later on, but I think you are strongly overvaluing the effect of the kickstarter packs, jtatta. Current estimates show that the KS campaign will produce about 1.6 million set 1 boosters. That's only about 1930 playsets of any given legendary, and about 3770 playsets of any given rare. That isn't all that much cardstock to fulfill everybody's needs for building decks. The reason prices of mythic rares on MTGO are disproportionately large compared to rares is redemption: For most sets, mythic rares are printed at a rate of 1:2 to rares, i.e. for any given copy of a mythic rare two copies of a given rare exists. However, to redeem a digital set to physical cards you need one copy of each card in the set, which pulls mythic rares and rares at a rate of 1:1 out of the economy. This means that once redemption hits, the natural balance of rares vs mythic rares starts to be distorted, leading to a significantly higher price point in mythic rares. (Usually, even the jankiest foil mythic rare will be worth 7+ tickets just for redemption)

The rate of legendaries to rares in Hex is going to be about 1.72:1. (On average, one of each legendary will be opened every 9*23 = 206 boosters. The remaining 183 rares opened are spread across the 106 rares in the set for a rate of 1.72 copies of each rare for each copy of a legendary) This means that any given legendary is actually not going to be that much harder to get than any given rare. Without redemption, I expect the transition between legendaries and rares to be relatively smooth.

I doubt any legendary will be able to stabilize above 1500 platinum while Set 1 is the active limited set, more on this when I have more time to write a post on it.

Gwaer
04-11-2014, 02:11 PM
I'm more concerned with people getting themselves into trouble. This is a bit like gambling early on. I have some money to play with and will be sinking quite a bit into this early market hoping to come out ahead, I'm prepared to lose every dime of that money, anyone else who reads this thread and decides to try to go the same route should be in that mindset as well. Don't gamble expecting to win big, gamble expecting to lose everything.

Westane
04-11-2014, 02:30 PM
I actually have no real desire to profit off of this game.

For me this a very rare opportunity to get in on the ground level of what I believe will be a very popular TCG, and so my goal becomes 100% playset collection.

Right now, to get four of every card on MTGO, the price is right about $89,000. 4x every card in Theros (set not block) is just over $400.

If early on in Hex I can pick up four complete Set 1 sets for ~$200, I'll be ecstatic, especially if that trend continues moving forward.

Idus
04-11-2014, 02:35 PM
Gwaer makes a good point. Some reading this thread may take the information as gospel. I'm still amazed some people believe a Nigerian prince want to send them millions of dollars! So Cavaet Emptor, everything here is speculation. Some of it with a sound logical base, but until it happens, it's all pie in the sky.

Personally, I'm in it for the PvE, so I was actually trying to get a base point for treasure chests and crafting material, and this was just my preliminary work to eliminate the PvP values from the equation :) I really want to know what goodies I'll get from disenchanting those Angel of Dawn cards :P

Finally, you know what they say about statistics. I could also come up with what looks like valid maths that could double, or halve card values, if someone really wants, but I'll stick by my current stats until we know more about PvE.

mudkip
04-11-2014, 03:22 PM
Some reading this thread may take the information as gospel.

Economies are funny things and they do rely on people's perceived values. These speculations are likely to temper the early Hex economy, as they're good starting points.

Yoss
04-11-2014, 08:41 PM
I did some pure maths analysis on card rarity based on the test figures we're seeing from the last 2 patches for legendary & primal distribution, and using an AH price for boosters of $1.50 platinum. The big wild card will be the value of treasure chests, as we've had no info to base an assumption on, so I just used a similar distribution as card rarities and assumed a similar demand.

Using some reverse engineering, I set a fixed price on Primals of $30, and treasure chests at $0.20. Based on these assumptions, I came up with the following average figures :-

Legendary $11.25
Rare $1.25
Uncommon $0.02
Common $0.01 (essentially worthless ($0.0008), but if we can't sell in bulk, that'd be the minimum AH price)

The second unknown is what impact crafting will have in playing a demand from the PvE crowd. I can actually see PvE demand having a significant impact on AH prices, primarily for chest, but also if Crypto make PvP cards a core part of the PvE experience as well for crafting or as I indicated in another thread, for something like a special "Iron Man" dungeon.

What's your underlying math and assumptions? Here's what I have so far:

0.888888889 rare per normal pack
0.111111111 legend per normal pack
2 legend per primal pack
13 rare per primal pack
0.02 primal packs per normal pack

0.151111111 legend per pack (combined)
1.148888889 rare per pack (combined)
3 uncommon per pack
11 common per pack

Set 1 has
23 legend
105 rare
98 uncom
112 comm

What's next?

Shivdaddy
04-12-2014, 03:15 PM
This Game cost half the price of MTGO. Good starting point cards will be worth at least half of MTGO.

MTGO has redemption, keeping the prices higher than they would be without it. Hex will now be worth less than 50% of mtgo cards

Hex has the Subscription thing, driving down pack prices even more. Another hit to its value compared to MTGO.

If the auction house works and is super easy, everyone becomes a "bot" to use MTGO terms. Making cards even easier to get and driving prices down compared to MTGO.

I will not even bring up the KS stuff because the first set everything will be super funky and continue to be funky until about set 3.

My Guess cards will be worth 33%-40% of MTGO.

Here is the latest set of MTG on MTGO. Number on left is buying, number on right is selling. These are all the cards that are worth more than $1 (15 cards). Apply the 40% rule and and it knocks it down to only 12 cards worth over a buck. This also leaves the top card being worth almost $9.


Flame-Wreathed Phoenix [BNG] 1.05 1.35 bifidus[1] pisiiki2[2] supernova01[1]
Eidolon of Countless Battles [BNG] 1.25 1.55 tina16[1] supernova01[1] mteamtester[1]
Chromanticore [BNG] 1.2 1.5 ComparePrices[2] bifidus[2] pisiiki3[1]
Phenax, God of Deception [BNG] 1.45 1.85 supernova01[2] pisiiki3[2] ComparePrices[1]
Mogis, God of Slaughter [BNG] 1.55 2 tina16[2] ComparePrices[2] pisiiki3[3] supernova02[1]
Pain Seer [BNG] 2.55 bifidus[2] pisiiki3[1] supernova02[2] pisiiki2[1] supernova01[1]
Temple of Malice [BNG] 2.2 2.8 mteamtester[2] bifidus[2]
Herald of Torment [BNG] 3 3.8 tina16[1] pisiiki3[1] supernova01[1] mteamtester[2] pisiiki2[1]
Temple of Plenty [BNG] 2.95 3.75 tina16[1] ComparePrices[1]
Xenagos, God of Revels [BNG] 3.6 4.55 supernova01[3] pisiiki2[1] ComparePrices[1] tina16[2]
Temple of Enlightenment [BNG] 3.6 4.55 supernova02[1]
Ephara, God of the Polis [BNG] 3.7 4.7 bifidus[1]
Courser of Kruphix [BNG] 6.25 7.9 supernova02[1] ComparePrices[1]
Brimaz, King of Oreskos [BNG] 11.5 14.5 supernova01[1] supernova02[2] pisiiki2[1] bifidus[4]
Kiora, the Crashing Wave [BNG] 11.7 14.8 supernova02[1]

Idus
04-12-2014, 05:10 PM
What's your underlying math and assumptions? Here's what I have so far:


I used 10% legendary drop rate, 1.5% Primal. Using those figures on normal pack drops, I worked out the total "units" of cards, with the common being equivalent to 1 unit, then divided the total pack price by the number of each rare * its unit value. This gave me an individual unit cost.

Using these values for rare & legendary, I worked out the approximate price of a Primal, fudged that price to a nice rounded down number.

I then subtracted that amount, plus my fudge estimates on treasure chests (based on worse case them having just 1 card of the chest rarity) from the total sample cost and recalculated the unit value again, to come up with a new estimate for each rarity. I realise this is a recursive function, but that's why I rounded down the primal price, to compensate for the subsequent lowering of the individual card prices. Finally, I rounded the last figures to nearest platinum values.

funktion
04-12-2014, 11:40 PM
I'm more concerned with people getting themselves into trouble. This is a bit like gambling early on. I have some money to play with and will be sinking quite a bit into this early market hoping to come out ahead, I'm prepared to lose every dime of that money, anyone else who reads this thread and decides to try to go the same route should be in that mindset as well. Don't gamble expecting to win big, gamble expecting to lose everything.

People should really take this to heart.

All players should hope for the auction house to be as fluid as possible. We don't know exactly what type of system it is going to use, but the better it is the less room there is for someone to make an arbitrage.

If you're looking to speculate on a card which is by and large undervalued there ought to be quite a bit of room for you, but if you're just looking to buy the "hot" cards cheap and then resell them I think you're going to be in for a shock. The only reason it works on MTGO is the shitty ticket system / lack of a market interface. The reason it works in paper is that stores are able to give instant gratification to drafters who crack a chase card and don't care to keep it.

-We're going to have an auction house interface
-We're presumably going to be able to "buy it now" on the auction house

I don't see where there is room to buy low and sell high outside of speculation.

Shivdaddy
04-13-2014, 06:59 AM
....


I don't see where there is room to buy low and sell high outside of speculation.

I agree with this, but with cards only being 33-40% of MTGO that means taking the gamble on speculation might not really be worth it.

Kroan
04-13-2014, 07:58 AM
-We're going to have an auction house interface
-We're presumably going to be able to "buy it now" on the auction house

I don't see where there is room to buy low and sell high outside of speculation. Works just fine in WoW. Obviously different game, but your points don't really add up.

stiii
04-13-2014, 09:32 AM
Works just fine in WoW. Obviously different game, but your points don't really add up.

How does this sort of thing work in wow? After you buy sword +20/dragon scales how do you resell for more than you paid? Is it just a case of people selling very rare items for far less than they are worth due to lack of knowledge?

jgsugden
04-13-2014, 09:44 AM
Hex, contrary to popular opinion, is not MTGO. The influx of Kickstarter cards, the slow rate at which the KS rewards will rollout, the difference in the size of the player base, the limited number of card sets at start (one), the 'RPG' uses of cards (do commons get more value if you can use them up in the RPG game to do things?) ... there are too many unpredictable things for us to have an accurate guess. Our educated guesses should not be trusted.

That being said, I would expect there will be three phases in the early months: An initial rush, followed by a crash followed by a recovery. The initial rush will occur as people move to get their key elements for constructed decks they wish to play in tournaments early on. There will be a small enough supply to warrant high prices. Then, after the initial rush, people will slow down their purchases because they have so many KS benefits coming to them and they don't want to overspend for something they'll get in the boosters they have coming to them. Finally, once KS benefits are down to a minimal level and we have a few sets out, costs will stabilize closer to a price determined by market costs and we'll be able to make better predictions. However, that is just speculation.

Kroan
04-13-2014, 09:50 AM
How does this sort of thing work in wow? After you buy sword +20/dragon scales how do you resell for more than you paid? Is it just a case of people selling very rare items for far less than they are worth due to lack of knowledge?

I've been dominating the glyph market on my server when I played. Besides crafting an insane amount I also bought all glyphs under a certain price and relisted them. I also bought up other rare items that are not often sold from people who a) needed gold quick or b) didn't know the real worth. Turning a profit is fairly easy if you take advantage of those situations.

I can imagine the same is true for Hex. People need some platinum to draft, so they sell their rare/legendary cheaper then usually. That's where someone come's in that plays the market.

funktion
04-13-2014, 11:01 AM
I've been dominating the glyph market on my server when I played. Besides crafting an insane amount I also bought all glyphs under a certain price and relisted them. I also bought up other rare items that are not often sold from people who a) needed gold quick or b) didn't know the real worth. Turning a profit is fairly easy if you take advantage of those situations.

I can imagine the same is true for Hex. People need some platinum to draft, so they sell their rare/legendary cheaper then usually. That's where someone come's in that plays the market.

I've dominated the glyph market as well. The amount of gold you can make with next to no effort is pretty bonkers.

I thought I had made a note about it in my post up above but guess I didn't, but I'm talking about doing this outside of market manipulation. Even on the market manipulation end though you should stop and think if you're betting this is going to be like wow.

Not to mention that the reason it works with glyphs is that almost nobody wants to bother with making glyphs, so you're only competing with the other 2-3 people on your serving that are also trying to corner the glyph market. This is NOTHING like wow in that regard, nor is it anything like MTGO. There is a reason that nearly everyone who plays the AH on wow starts off by doing it with glyphs, nobody else is doing it. This is a stretch but if there's any room for resale it is probably with extremely low drop chance PvE equipment or something. You're probably be able to turn a dime early on just because a lot of people are going to want to get some plat without spending cash, and that a lot of people are going to be listing stuff at weird prices. I don't expect that to last long.

I resale things for a living. It is easy when you're the only game in town.

hex_colin
04-13-2014, 11:47 AM
Traditional stores (mostly brick and mortar, but also online) make money from MTG singles because they can generally buy them much cheaper (generally 50% or less) than they sell them for. That's not going to be possible with HEX. Except for people who are truly desperate for Platinum, there's almost no need to undercut the market value significantly - just post your singles and forget about them for a few days. That'll squeeze margins for anyone trying to sell cards outside of the Hex AH. And, anyone with half a brain will check both the AH and the non-AH stores for pricing before posting anything, minimizing arbitrage possibilities for the non-AH stores.

Then you have to take into account the cost of scanning the AH manually 24 hours a day to maintain inventory (and fighting everyone who's trying to make a profit too), being available to fulfill orders quickly, etc. It's going to be a slog to sell cards outside of the game in non-AH stores. Eventually it'll be easier if/when we get an AH API but by that time the in-game AH should be so good (hopefully with features [all available from the card manager] like "buy it now", "buy a playset", "list for market value", "buy when available at X price", historical pricing information for X card, etc.) that it will put any stores that were able to make any money at the beginning out of business.

So... that leaves the small window of time between start of Beta and the addition of the AH for non-AH stores to truly profit. And, maybe not even then - CZE could decide to restrict trading until the AH opens (unlikely, but possible). My numbers say it's likely not possible to recoup the investment necessary.

Ebynfel
04-13-2014, 05:19 PM
MTGO stores run at a margin of, sometimes, only 2%, rather than the 50% markup you see at the local game shop. That's why the bots are so prevalent, and price swings, even on popular cards, are very likely and can sometimes cost a store a day's worth of work. The margins for singles there is rediculously low. Packs are a little better, but limited is the prime format there from what I recall. Drafting is how most people start their drives to 'Go Infinite" so to speak. Or fuel their constructed decks.

Just saying, singles can be a rough time, even if you're vested i nthe auction house. Now, if they have the market options from games like Guild Wars 2, where you can post a want list on the AH and have someone just randomly sell it to you for the set price, it may be a little more manipulative. However for chase rares and legendaries, it'll always be worth it to chuck it up for more on the Auction House and let more plat come your way at the end of the day.

I dabbled in the economy of MtGO. I didn't do too poorly, but at the end of the day a bot wasn't worth running, and buying on speculation was all I had. Like when they announced Rancor as an uncommon a couple core sets ago. my stock of Rancors fueling the resergent stompy in Pauper cut almost in half over night. That was rough.