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jcalton
04-30-2014, 12:37 AM
TLDR: Best guess: Com: 60% | Unc: 27.5% | Rar: 10% | Leg: 2.5%

Updated May 11, but I'm not planning to update regularly.
The spreadsheet is still available if you want to keep updating it. Feel free to get rid of the highlighting:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VTWED16q0p6Mojt0hCwi-d_cUg0Ce-iZOels44kYmYE/edit?usp=sharing

Here's the data as of May 4:


TYPE
#
AVG %

LOW
HIGH


Leg
142
2.7%

0.7%
6.8%


Rar
536
10.1%

6.8%
14.3%


Unc
1457
27.4%

21.0%
31.0%


Com
3179
59.8%

52.7%
63.5%


Total
5314




Links to outside data:
Rapkannibale (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=35072&highlight=stats), shocker455 (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34730)

NOTE: If submitting, please exclude "free" Primal packs which yield Legendaries 100% of the time.
For example, if you look at my attached pic, I subtracted 4 Primals from my chest total of 7, for a total of 3 "real" legendary pulls.

I guess you could also include the # of Primals you subtracted, just so we know you did it. :)

LOW/HIGH: These are the lowest and highest observed values, currently only using samples of 100 packs or more.

4/30 Edited these posts to put the current tracking at the top. Can't delete the screenshot of my chests.

jcalton
04-30-2014, 12:38 AM
This was more or less my OP before I swapped posts 1 and 2:

Has a dev posted the odds somewhere? That would be even better. :)

If we get a chest value over 1000, we're getting pretty close to an expected breakdown. 10,000 would be better, but that's a lot of work. ;)

FWIW, out of 155 packs, I received:
3 Legendary (~2%)
18 Rare (12%)
40 Uncommon (26%)
94 Common (61%)

* Whether they are reported in the forums with 100% accuracy is another issue.

FYI, the pic includes 4 Primal reward packs which automatically generate Legendaries, so I'm not counting those.

Rapkannibale
04-30-2014, 01:17 AM
I started a threat with this type of information a few days ago.http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=35072&highlight=stats

shocker455
04-30-2014, 01:24 AM
6 Legendary
14 Rare
32 Uncommon
73 Common
125 packs

jcalton
04-30-2014, 12:44 PM
Thanks, guys, the numbers are already trending consistently just for the 3 of us (so far):
Rar: 10.3% to 11.6%
Unc: 25.6% to 27.2%
Com: 58.4% to 61.7%.

Legendary rate is 0.7 to 4.8%...obviously with small samples this is where we expect to observe the variation.

Yoss
04-30-2014, 12:58 PM
Thanks for doing this. I am only going to open packs in Draft, so I won't have any data until the Drafting is working, and it will then be in 3-pack increments.

nicosharp
04-30-2014, 01:05 PM
Can those of you listing legendary chests also quantify how many of those were from Primal packs?

jcalton
04-30-2014, 01:15 PM
Can those of you listing legendary chests also quantify how many of those were from Primal packs?

So far, all 3 of us have excluded Primal packs. Obviously all of this is only going to be as accurate as the reporting. You can click on the usernames to see their reporting this.

I edited the first post to make it clear to please exclude Primal Packs.

jcalton
04-30-2014, 01:25 PM
Thanks for doing this. I am only going to open packs in Draft, so I won't have any data until the Drafting is working, and it will then be in 3-pack increments.

Just FYI, this isn't automated. I'm not going to update 3 packs at a time and statistically they won't matter, either.
If you decide you want to open your backer rewards packs then post them here.

P.S. There's no advantage to waiting to open them...unless you can sell them in the Auction House. Or I guess sell your whole account at launch.

Yoss
04-30-2014, 01:30 PM
I'm well aware it's not automated, thus my "thank you" above. I was the bookkeeper for our alpha data on primal pack drop rate. If you don't want small increments, I understand.

Vilesin
04-30-2014, 01:30 PM
When I get home (or tomorrow morning) I'll get my stats for you.

In the meantime - that white is super unreadable.

jcalton
04-30-2014, 01:32 PM
I'm well aware it's not automated, thus my "thank you" above. I was the bookkeeper for our alpha data on primal pack drop rate. If you don't want small increments, I understand.
Sorry, I wasn't trying to be crabby about it, just stating that I'm not gonna do it. :)

Assuming nobody screws it up, here's a google doc:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VTWED16q0p6Mojt0hCwi-d_cUg0Ce-iZOels44kYmYE/edit#gid=0

jcalton
04-30-2014, 01:33 PM
In the meantime - that white is super unreadable.
Yep, that's what I thought. I figured I'd wait until someone complained to verify it wasn't just me or my settings.

Vorpal
04-30-2014, 08:38 PM
I opened 36 packs:

3 rare
11 uncommon
22 common

Malama
05-01-2014, 04:45 AM
I have opened 35 packs:

1 Legendary
6 Rare
9 Uncommon
19 Common

I feel quite good about this, looking at the statistics.

TJTaylor
05-01-2014, 09:41 AM
I posted this info in Rapkannible's thread but I'll repost it here for you guys.

Packs opened: 536

Chests:

Legendary: 19 (3.55%)
Rare: 45 (8.40%)
Uncommon: 157 (29.29%)
Common: 315 (58.77%)

jcalton
05-01-2014, 01:49 PM
Thanks, guys, that's 1000 packs!
It looks like we have a pretty good estimate of what they've assigned to the RNG for chests. [See top of OP]

hex_colin
05-01-2014, 01:54 PM
Chark loves this thread ;) And Excel spreadsheets apparently, where he tracks the actual distributions of everything like this (chests, chest contents, WoF spins, etc.). :)

The OP numbers are almost exactly what I saw for hundreds of trials too.

YourOpponent
05-01-2014, 02:40 PM
I posted this info in Rapkannible's thread but I'll repost it here for you guys.

Packs opened: 536

Chests:

Legendary: 19 (3.55%)
Rare: 45 (8.40%)
Uncommon: 157 (29.29%)
Common: 315 (58.77%)

Are you sure that's not counting primal packs from what you opened? Because that seems pretty high otherwise by almost twice the percentage of what the rest of the data shows.

TJTaylor
05-01-2014, 02:50 PM
Are you sure that's not counting primal packs from what you opened? Because that seems pretty high otherwise by almost twice the percentage of what the rest of the data shows.

No. This excludes the 21 legendary chests I got from primal packs.

ossuary
05-01-2014, 03:13 PM
For what it's worth, I have opened 55 packs (my willpower is weak).

33 common
16 uncommon
6 rare
0 legendary

(also, my luck is, as always, rubbish :))

Dustin1280
05-01-2014, 04:36 PM
As of right now I have opened up 200 packs
127 common
42 uncommon
24 rare
7 Legendary

should I edit this if/when I decide to open more, or should I post a new entry?

hex_colin
05-01-2014, 05:20 PM
Are you sure that's not counting primal packs from what you opened? Because that seems pretty high otherwise by almost twice the percentage of what the rest of the data shows.

The sample size is still really small - both for the post you're referencing and the OP at the time it was posted. Not at all unusual to see those sorts of swings. If the OP and the post were both 5000 packs and you saw that sort of difference, you could start to worry about how divergent they were.

shiningideal
05-01-2014, 05:51 PM
311 standard packs opened

7 Legendary
33 Rare
80 Uncommon
191 Common

(Also 8 primal packs filtered out)

Yoss
05-01-2014, 05:55 PM
should I edit this if/when I decide to open more, or should I post a new entry?

Please make new posts for new entries. At least, that's how I'd want it if I were the one tracking it. I like to say "I'm done with all posts up to Post X. I only need to look at ones newer than that."

dogmod
05-01-2014, 06:22 PM
L: 3
R: 14
U: 25
C: 63
T: 105 ( no primals included)

Lochar
05-01-2014, 06:37 PM
L: 9
R: 38
U: 117
C: 254

That is discounting the Primal Packs I've opened.

ursa23
05-01-2014, 09:42 PM
L:1
r:3
u:21
c:19

Yoss
05-02-2014, 10:13 AM
leg rar unc com total
rate 2.51% 10.13% 27.23% 60.13% 100.00%
totals 58 234 629 1389 2310

Vorpal
05-02-2014, 10:22 AM
Is that google doc spreadsheet supposed to be editable? I wasn't able to edit my results in.

Yoss
05-02-2014, 11:24 AM
Just post them here.

DeToX86
05-02-2014, 11:56 AM
Not that this is statistically worth anything, but wanted to point out that I am quite lucky!

5 Packs opened.

1 Legendary
1 Rare
2 Uncommon
1 Common

:cool:

AstaSyneri
05-02-2014, 12:43 PM
310 packs opened (without primals)
10 legendary
32 rare
93 uncommon
175 common

Covnam
05-02-2014, 08:04 PM
I've opened 20/155 packs (no primals). Here are my stats:
1 Legendary
2 Rares
8 Uncommons
9 Commons

Svenn
05-03-2014, 10:37 AM
I've opened 102 packs. Chest distribution is:

7 Legendary (13, with 6 primal packs opened)
15 Rare
27 Uncommon
53 Common

hex_colin
05-03-2014, 10:41 AM
I've opened 102 packs. Chest distribution is:

7 Legendary (13, with 6 primal packs opened)
15 Rare
27 Uncommon
53 Common

That's pretty lucky! :)

Svenn
05-03-2014, 01:49 PM
That's pretty lucky! :)

Yeah, I'm happy with it so far. ;) Can't wait to get gold to start rolling them, though!

hex_colin
05-03-2014, 02:12 PM
Yeah, I'm happy with it so far. ;) Can't wait to get gold to start rolling them, though!

You and me both. It's very addictive... ;)

Bells
05-04-2014, 02:28 AM
117 Boosters (1 primal) open

chests
8 Legendary
8 rare
28 uncommon
73 common

jcalton
05-04-2014, 03:54 PM
The sample size is still really small - both for the post you're referencing and the OP at the time it was posted. Not at all unusual to see those sorts of swings. If the OP and the post were both 5000 packs and you saw that sort of difference, you could start to worry about how divergent they were.
Good news, everyone!
5000 packs reached.

I'm pretty much done with updating this thread...these numbers have barely changed since I started (and in fact are basically the same as my very own results).

jcalton
05-04-2014, 03:55 PM
Is that google doc spreadsheet supposed to be editable? I wasn't able to edit my results in.

I've made the spreadsheet editable now that (I think) I'm done with it.
Here's the link, plus it will be in the OP:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VTWED16q0p6Mojt0hCwi-d_cUg0Ce-iZOels44kYmYE/edit?usp=sharing

Note: I skipped you guys that had really small numbers, feel free to add them.

hex_colin
05-05-2014, 02:43 AM
Good news, everyone!
5000 packs reached.

I'm pretty much done with updating this thread...these numbers have barely changed since I started (and in fact are basically the same as my very own results).

So close... ;)

Svenn
05-05-2014, 09:17 AM
I updated my numbers and I went through and updated the sheet with formulas so the statistics don't need to be updated by hand... just the individual numbers of chests.

jcalton
05-11-2014, 04:04 PM
Updated the numbers in the OP and tinkered with the Google doc.
Btw, I like to keep it sorted by # of packs opened, that way the more significant samples are at the top.

I don't see any need to change the working model, I'm still guessing that they are nice, round numbers. I suppose it could be a 2.75% rate, though.
But for me the point of this thread was getting an idea of whether I had good luck with my chests or bad...knowing whether the Legendary rate is precisely 2.5%, 2.67%, or 2.75% will make no difference to any of us.

I'm also highly skeptical that having 25,000 chests will change this data meaningfully--5000 is a huge sample size.

Yoss
05-11-2014, 08:57 PM
The chest drop model will matter for anyone trying to figure out a complete value model. Combined with the AH prices on each chest rarity, this thread means you can figure out what % of a booster pack value is consumed by the chest.

jcalton
05-12-2014, 05:30 PM
It won't matter whether it's 2.5% or 2.7% legendary rate

hex_colin
05-12-2014, 06:11 PM
It won't matter whether it's 2.5% or 2.7% legendary rate

But it's neither! ;)

ossuary
05-15-2014, 11:55 AM
Well, my luck continues to be terrible and well below the average, as always. :)

Counting drafts, I've now cracked nearly 100 packs. My distribution of chests is as follows:

common: 67.01%
uncommon: 23.40%
rare: 9.59%
legendary: ZERO! :p

Someone actually passed me a rare card in a draft this morning (surge mechanism :p), my first ever passed rare in all the drafts I've played. Clearly, Kismet is trying to make me pay for that small act of kindness, the heartless bitch. Because ALL NINE chests from my 3 drafts today were common. :p

Incidentally, the chance of having zero legendary chests at this point based on the number of packs I've opened is below 15%. I'm a statistical outlier. Yayy me!

Yoss
05-22-2014, 03:48 PM
But it's neither! ;)

So, we need a MUCH larger sample size. MOAR DATA!