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shocker455
05-24-2014, 04:32 PM
With the ah coming out before we know what's insides chests, what do you think they will be worth?
And how much different between rolled and unrolled chests?

Ofc any transaction for chests will be a risk for both sides.

Viziroth
05-24-2014, 08:59 PM
unrolled will probably worth much more than rolled, since you have chanecs at some rare stuff with a roll it could be like opening another chest.

Aradon
05-25-2014, 11:17 AM
It'd probably be pretty wise to not sell chests at this point, or to attempt to buy them cheap or sell them very high: we don't really know the value of either gold or chests at this point. We don't know what will be in the chests (or the value of those contents) and we don't really know how available gold will be.

The only value we have to base prices on is the expected value of the contents of the chests compared to the value of the wheels of fate, and base the 'fair price' off the cost of spinning a chest. In other words, if you expect the contents of a common chest to be on par with the expected value of a common chest spin, the common chest would be worth 1,200 gold. Unfortunately, even this is a lot of speculation and guesswork. You'd have to peruse the WoF spin results thread, estimate your expected value per spin, and then guess exactly what you'll be getting from a chest and compare.

Too much speculative guesswork for me, I think. Mostly people will just be being opportunistic for quick profits at this point, I think.

Shivdaddy
05-25-2014, 12:01 PM
This is one of the features I think is really cool with HEX. Great gold sink, people will always want/need gold. Everyone likes the gambling feel of spinning on a chest. I can not wait to see a list of everything that is possible out of a chest. As of right now I still don't get what spinning a chest really does. I understand only "good" things can happen with them, but I want to know exactly what can happen.

Rokz
05-25-2014, 12:32 PM
I also wonder if there will be two tabs for chests - Spin Chests & No Spin Chests? Obviously the chests with a spin remaining will be worth more, but... Can you spin a chest, get a Mercenary, Card or w/e then go and sell your chest knowing it's already had one spin and assume that the chances of pulling another prize is lower based on probability?

Or as soon as they spin once the chest is then Soulbound?

dogmod
05-25-2014, 12:36 PM
I also wonder if there will be two tabs for chests - Spin Chests & No Spin Chests? Obviously the chests with a spin remaining will be worth more, but... Can you spin a chest, get a Mercenary, Card or w/e then go and sell your chest knowing it's already had one spin and assume that the chances of pulling another prize is lower based on probability?

Or as soon as they spin once the chest is then Soulbound?

Why would the chances be lower just because you won once? I doubt that is the way it works.

Rokz
05-25-2014, 12:41 PM
Why would the chances be lower just because you won once? I doubt that is the way it works.

Ummm... Did you read this post correctly? I wrote it carefully to avoid these comments so we could stay on topic.
"ASSUME that the chances of pulling another prize is lower based on PROBABILITY?"

Xenavire
05-25-2014, 12:44 PM
I think there is an argument for pre-rolled chests being worth slightly more than unrolled chests, purely because of the instant payout for people. Opening a chest is free, and anyone with a chest with rolls on it will hold onto it rather than opening it (so not to waste value). But what about people that already have the rewards from WoF or simply don't want them? Those rolled chests are going to be prime targets.

The unrolled ones might end up more expensive, but I think it could go either way. I even think it might end up being a pretty flat value overall (an unrolled chest being worth approximately the same as a rolled chest.) Too early to tell.


Ummm... Did you read this post correctly? I wrote it carefully to avoid these comments so we could stay on topic.
"ASSUME that the chances of pulling another prize is lower based on PROBABILITY?"


Thats a strange argument. I don't see how you are reaching that conclusion at all - the rolls will all be the same probability, and giving a chest away before exhausting it doesn't make any sense if you were willing to roll for prizes once.

About the only time I could see this happening is after an upgrade roll from common to uncommon/rare.

Rokz
05-25-2014, 12:55 PM
Haha, well I am not even going to bother explaining anymore if the words 'Assume' & 'Probability' are not understood. Not worth taking this off topic.

----

Have you heard any news on whether the chest are going to be souldbound or not. Or will you be able to pawn them off at any stage?

Xenavire
05-25-2014, 12:57 PM
Haha, well I am not even going to bother explaining anymore if the words 'Assume' & 'Probability' are not understood. Not worth taking this off topic.

----

Have you heard any news on whether the chest are going to be souldbound or not. Or will you be able to pawn them off at any stage?

I don't do statistics, but I do know that rolling doesn't change your odds. *shrug*

And no, chests should never be soulbound as far as we know.

Rokz
05-25-2014, 01:03 PM
Google "fallacy of the maturity of chances". I know what your saying, and your right. This is why I said 'Assume'.

----

Do you think people will be selling their legendary chests? Maybe once they acquire all the possible contents, but there could be things in there that could be worth 10x the price of the chest.

Xenavire
05-25-2014, 01:07 PM
Google "fallacy of the maturity of chances". I know what your saying, and your right. This is why I said 'Assume'.

----

Do you think people will be selling their legendary chests? Maybe once they acquire all the possible contents, but there could be things in there that could be worth 10x the price of the chest.

And that is why I said 'If you rolled once, why stop?' - common chests in particular give far more payout than the gold required to roll on them most of the time (I would value things like the Wrathwood Colossus AA card at about 80k gold, easy.)

I doubt people will sell legendary chests unless they drop mostly PvE items. If there is a chance at primal packs, for example, I expect them to either be opened immediately, or to sell based on the chance of the primal packs. (Especially since primals give you more legendary chests.)

Rokz
05-25-2014, 01:16 PM
And that is why I said 'If you rolled once, why stop?' - common chests in particular give far more payout than the gold required to roll on them most of the time (I would value things like the Wrathwood Colossus AA card at about 80k gold, easy.)

I doubt people will sell legendary chests unless they drop mostly PvE items. If there is a chance at primal packs, for example, I expect them to either be opened immediately, or to sell based on the chance of the primal packs. (Especially since primals give you more legendary chests.)

Ahh this is getting me excited for AH, can't wait to see the prices on some of these cards and items. Can't wait to manage my collection.

But I am scared that there will be things you can't get rid of, things that have flooded the market... I think common no spin chests will fall into this category and a lot of set 1 commons.

Xenavire
05-25-2014, 01:20 PM
Ahh this is getting me excited for AH, can't wait to see the prices on some of these cards and items. Can't wait to manage my collection.

But I am scared that there will be things you can't get rid of, things that have flooded the market... I think common no spin chests will fall into this category and a lot of set 1 commons.

Set 1 commons, sure, pre-rolled common chests, those will probably have the least worth of all chests. But I think in that case, you would be better off opening them and hoping for whatever lucky proc item it happens to have.

chromus
05-25-2014, 01:53 PM
I don't think chests should be auction-able or tradable until we at least know what they are to contain. It leaves way too much room for speculation and gambling while giving too big of an advantage to those who have even a tiny bit more info about them (Producers?).

shocker455
05-25-2014, 01:56 PM
I actually wounder how much more an unrolled chest is worth. IF you cant open a chest unless it was rolled, i could see higher chests being cheaper if they were rolled.

While there is still to little data to confirm any thing, iv been thinking chest spin rewards dont improve when rolling a better chest. Not much of a difference between common, and uncommon rolls so far, gold does not scale, and primal chests are rolled for free. If true this would mean the only reason to roll better chests is to upgrade them. Depending on the difference in prizes for opening higher chests, it could make the price difference for rolled and unrolled chests near 0.

BenRGamer
05-25-2014, 03:27 PM
They've... already said everything that's going to be in the chests.

Xenavire
05-25-2014, 04:51 PM
They've... already said everything that's going to be in the chests.

An exact item by item, rarity by loot table, list? Never saw that. :p

hex_colin
05-25-2014, 05:37 PM
An exact item by item, rarity by loot table, list? Never saw that. :p

Chark is never going to give you that! :)

sukebe
05-25-2014, 05:40 PM
Why are people thinking that they need to be rolled before opening them? They have already said that you will not have to pay anything to open chests and that spinning is just an extra bonus (and gold sink).

I think many people will sell the legendary chests as long as the sell price beats the average (and in situations like this it almost always does). I will likely be keeping most of mine I think but that is just so I can feed my gambling addiction (which is what opening chests instead of selling them is)

EntropyBall
05-25-2014, 05:43 PM
I doubt people will sell legendary chests unless they drop mostly PvE items. If there is a chance at primal packs, for example, I expect them to either be opened immediately, or to sell based on the chance of the primal packs. (Especially since primals give you more legendary chests.)

People will sell everything that is sellable.

hex_colin
05-25-2014, 05:52 PM
People will sell everything that is sellable.

Especially if people are playing Platinum for them. Like me.

Sell me your chests! :)

BenRGamer
05-25-2014, 06:06 PM
Especially if people are playing Platinum for them. Like me.

Sell me your chests! :)

Sure! You can have about 120 no-spin common chests for about 100 plat a piece.

sukebe
05-25-2014, 06:23 PM
Especially if people are playing Platinum for them. Like me.

Sell me your chests! :)

are you only interested in common chests? I spun all of mine as they were the best deal to spin :-)

Fateanomaly
05-25-2014, 07:11 PM
So exactly what is inside the chests?

sukebe
05-25-2014, 07:55 PM
So exactly what is inside the chests?

This information comes from This (http://hextcg.com/exclusives-treasure-and-mercenaries/)article (which may be out of date)

Chests can contain:

Mercenaries
Equipment
Alternate Art Cards
Gold
Crafting Materials
PVP Cards
Pack of Cards!
Sleeves
And more…

Aradon
05-25-2014, 08:04 PM
So exactly what is inside the chests?

It could be anything! It could even be a boat!

chromus
05-26-2014, 02:10 AM
This information comes from This (http://hextcg.com/exclusives-treasure-and-mercenaries/)article (which may be out of date)

Chests can contain:

Mercenaries
Equipment
Alternate Art Cards
Gold
Crafting Materials
PVP Cards
Pack of Cards!
Sleeves
And more…
Yea...and that is of absolutely no help in coming up with chest values or comparing different chest rarities' relative worth. I'll say it again: Making chests auctionable or tradable before we know their exact content/loot tables is a bad idea.

hammer
05-26-2014, 02:28 AM
Even if we know the contents I don't know how we determine prices until an auction house equilibrium is met on the supply and demand.

Take for example the three mercenaries from the wheels of fate: - Puck (Rare), Xarox (Uncommon) and Windborne (Common). It is impossible to assign a meaningful gold or platinum price or price ratio to any of them (we don't even know what stats they will have)

So many unknowns.

On a side note - I hope we know the decklist for dragon-blood and the Set 1 Collector AA BEFORE auction house goes live to generate an economy around card prices. The Collector AA will dump nearly 4000 copies of the card which would presumably impact on the value of the set1 version of the card.

jonsnow2000
05-26-2014, 02:43 AM
Yea...and that is of absolutely no help in coming up with chest values or comparing different chest rarities' relative worth. I'll say it again: Making chests auctionable or tradable before we know their exact content/loot tables is a bad idea.

Why is it so bad? It's just another risk/reward calculation for the participants: The seller might regret doing so when chest contents turn out to be awesome and worth more than they got from the sale. On the other hand, they might be glad when it turns out that stuff in chests is so "common" and devalued that they were right to sell them off.

I don't think CZE needs to play "Nanny" and protect the players in that regard (making chests unsellable till they can be opened).

Athravan
05-26-2014, 02:56 AM
Yea...and that is of absolutely no help in coming up with chest values or comparing different chest rarities' relative worth. I'll say it again: Making chests auctionable or tradable before we know their exact content/loot tables is a bad idea.

I don't really understand why it is a bad idea to allow people to trade them.

I think it is a bad idea to sell, or buy them - but that's my opinion, and personal preference. It's just a gamble. The seller gambles that he'll make more for them now than later, the buyer gambles the opposite. If you don't want to gamble (I don't), then don't sell / buy them until you can work out what's a good price with confidence.

If CZE allow people to gamble with chests before the full loot list is known, I don't see why that is a bad idea on CZE's front.

chromus
05-26-2014, 03:35 AM
Even if we know the contents I don't know how we determine prices until an auction house equilibrium is met on the supply and demand.

Take for example the three mercenaries from the wheels of fate: - Puck (Rare), Xarox (Uncommon) and Windborne (Common). It is impossible to assign a meaningful gold or platinum price or price ratio to any of them (we don't even know what stats they will have)


Actually, it is far from impossible to estimate the values of the wheel of fate rewards. We have determined the relative reward %s (here (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34986)) and we know how much it costs to spin the wheels. Some reasonable gold values can be assigned, at least as a starting point.

Why is it so bad? It's just another risk/reward calculation for the participants: The seller might regret doing so when chest contents turn out to be awesome and worth more than they got from the sale. On the other hand, they might be glad when it turns out that stuff in chests is so "common" and devalued that they were right to sell them off.

I don't think CZE needs to play "Nanny" and protect the players in that regard (making chests unsellable till they can be opened).
I didin't say make chests unsellable till they can be opened. I said 'till we know the contents'. I don't think people speculating and gambling on chest contents is good for the game (and potentially spending a lot of their $ in doing so). You open the way for a lot of people to be discontented for no real added-value to the community. 'If you don't wanna risk it, then simply don't gamble' only goes so far. Creating such a big opportunity for pure gambling in your own game doesn't send the best message and makes you indirectly responsible for the discontent created (again to no benefit at all to the community).

Also, gief me chest loot tablezz plzzzzzzzz! I want to know what's in them!!!

hammer
05-26-2014, 04:09 AM
Actually, it is far from impossible to estimate the values of the wheel of fate rewards. We have determined the relative reward %s (here (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34986)) and we know how much it costs to spin the wheels. Some reasonable gold values can be assigned, at least as a starting point.

I didin't say make chests unsellable till they can be opened. I said 'till we know the contents'. I don't think people speculating and gambling on chest contents is good for the game (and potentially spending a lot of their $ in doing so). You open the way for a lot of people to be discontented for no real added-value to the community. 'If you don't wanna risk it, then simply don't gamble' only goes so far. Creating such a big opportunity for pure gambling in your own game doesn't send the best message and makes you indirectly responsible for the discontent created (again to no benefit at all to the community).

Also, gief me chest loot tablezz plzzzzzzzz! I want to know what's in them!!!

Impossible because we don't know the demand for the loot drops, especially the mercenaries we don't know what they do and we don't know what they might be expected to help achieve (i.e. no details on dungeon content/specific mechanics) so I standby the fact that it is impossible. If you want to humour go ahead and work out your gold value on the three mercenaries and I will tell you if I buy or sell at your price points :p

chromus
05-26-2014, 04:49 AM
Impossible because we don't know the demand for the loot drops, especially the mercenaries we don't know what they do and we don't know what they might be expected to help achieve (i.e. no details on dungeon content/specific mechanics) so I standby the fact that it is impossible. If you want to humour go ahead and work out your gold value on the three mercenaries and I will tell you if I buy or sell at your price points :p

I already have here (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34986&page=22&p=368654#post368654). :D
We are now nearing 2000 spin data, so I shall adjust my estimations as follows:
Common-level rewards: 40,000 gold each
Uncommon-level rewards: 400,000 gold each
Rare-level rewards: 400,000 gold each

hammer
05-26-2014, 05:51 AM
I already have here (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34986&page=22&p=368654#post368654). :D
We are now nearing 2000 spin data, so I shall adjust my estimations as follows:
Common-level rewards: 40,000 gold each
Uncommon-level rewards: 400,000 gold each
Rare-level rewards: 400,000 gold each

I will sell you a common mercenary for 40k Gold and an Uncommon Mercenary for 400k gold get saving :p

chromus
05-26-2014, 06:27 AM
These prices are more for those who do not intend to spend any gold spinning or that have a few pieces left to complete their reward collections. I'm a spinner and not necessarily a collector, so I'll be doing the selling as well :)

Shivdaddy
05-26-2014, 08:51 AM
So right now its best to only spin on the uncommon chest?

chromus
05-26-2014, 03:01 PM
If you just want the spin rewards, best way to get them is to spin Common chests as they cost the least gold/spin.

Werlix
05-26-2014, 03:36 PM
I already have here (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34986&page=22&p=368654#post368654). :D
We are now nearing 2000 spin data, so I shall adjust my estimations as follows:
Common-level rewards: 40,000 gold each
Uncommon-level rewards: 400,000 gold each
Rare-level rewards: 400,000 gold each

Has anyone estimated plat to gold conversion rate, out of interest?

GPrime
05-26-2014, 04:43 PM
So right now its best to only spin on the uncommon chest?

If you're chasing after the non-upgrade prizes specifically, this seems to be the case. However, don't forget that one of the possible (and more common) spin prizes is a chest upgrade--and chest upgrades are the one prize that's worth more with higher-quality chests.

But until we know what's inside different rarity chests, we can't know if it's more worthwhile to spin commons or rares in the end.

Banquetto
05-26-2014, 05:18 PM
Has anyone estimated plat to gold conversion rate, out of interest?

However much gold you can grind via the most efficient PvE activity, with a perfect deck, in one hour = 50-100 plat.

Werlix
05-26-2014, 05:31 PM
However much gold you can grind via the most efficient PvE activity, with a perfect deck, in one hour = 50-100 plat.

PvE won't be live when the AH goes live, I meant the conversion rate when the AH goes live... I know it's a crapshoot but just wondering if anyone's given it thought.

Gwaer
05-26-2014, 07:22 PM
You can average the amount of gold won per tournament entry, and count it as some portion of that in plat value, at least while tournaments are paying out gold.

Quasari
05-26-2014, 07:37 PM
PvE won't be live when the AH goes live, I meant the conversion rate when the AH goes live... I know it's a crapshoot but just wondering if anyone's given it thought.

I have been, but it's hard.

It's set up on average a player will earn 1.5 packs and ~9300 gold each tourney. On average it costs a player ~3100 gold to spin each chest(which is hilarious based on the rates they drop that it's the uncommon that's right at the average). So in a draft, to spin each chest once, you'd on average spend 9300, which coincidentally is right at the average you'd get per draft. So if you use all your gold for rolling and you only draft, you are netting no gold(probably negative with paid respins, but I haven't added in value from the actual spins). There will not be enough gold in the economy to roll every chest overall, unless constructed becomes the only queue.

If constructed becomes popular once the AH comes out, we'll probably see a pretty increase in gold generation as no chests will be generated. If sealed gains in popularity, there will be even less gold to go around.

Basically, it's all up to how many people roll their chests.

Banquetto
05-26-2014, 08:54 PM
PvE won't be live when the AH goes live, I meant the conversion rate when the AH goes live... I know it's a crapshoot but just wondering if anyone's given it thought.

Yep. I was probably being excessively terse but I was thinking that there is no way to calculate a "reasonable" conversion of gold-to-plat until the intended gold faucets are implemented in game. It really is a crapshoot, and indeed also probably depends on how much value people put on chests. Which is in itself a crapshoot since we can't open them yet! :)

Personally I'm not sure I would launch the gold AH prior to PvE gold-earning being in-game.