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negativeZer0
06-04-2014, 08:19 AM
Survey has been closed - raw data has been posted in the following post - a meaningful analysis of data is coming when I'm not exhausted (just got home from a weekend of camping and paintball). In the meantime make of it what you will.

Original post from when results were being collected below:

How much would you BUY/SELL your PRIMAL packs for?
Please take a few seconds to answer this 2 question survey:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/LSMFGZ5

With enough responses I will be able to calculate an approximate value we will see on the AH for primal packs.
I will make the results and data public after I get enough responses.
Values are to the nearest dollar to make the analysis easier.
Currently the max choice is $40
Please do not post your answers here (as to not influence results)

negativeZer0
06-04-2014, 08:31 AM
RAW DATA

1991 <-- click to see full size



Cost Sell Buy
$1 4 1
$2 1 1
$3 0 1
$5 2 7
$6 0 5
$7 1 2
$8 0 5
$9 1 1
$10 11 13
$11 3 0
$12 8 8
$13 2 0
$14 1 1
$15 16 14
$16 1 3
$17 3 2
$18 2 2
$20 15 8
$22 1 0
$23 2 1
$24 1 1
$25 6 5
$29 0 1
$30 6 3
$31 0 1
$35 1 0
$39 1 1
$40 2 4

Special thanks to Chark for putting the data into a chart so its easier to read.

Disclaimer - There are 91 entries in the data above. Three entries where removed before this data was posted (not included in the 91 above) as these 3 persons answered both questions with $1. I feel this data to be completely erroneous (most likely they thought this was for standard packs) but if you feel differently and want to analyze the data yourself those 3 entries are the ONLY thing omitted/added/changed/etc from the actual answers given. (so if you want to add them back in you would have 94 responses, and would need to add 3 to the $1 answers for both buy and sell)

Yoss
06-04-2014, 08:59 AM
That was easy:
http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34329&highlight=booster+price+analysis

negativeZer0
06-04-2014, 09:22 AM
That was easy:
http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34329&highlight=booster+price+analysis
This is a statistical analysis but may not match the actual real world value. Will be int to see how close the two relate

I also only see prices for standard packs not Primal packs in your analysis (I'm assuming I'm just not looking in the right spot)

Lawlschool
06-04-2014, 09:26 AM
This is kinda premature. Primals should be worth around the average value of their contents plus a premium for the legendary chest. Without knowing the average value of rares and legendaries, buy/sell offers right now are guesses at best and will likely change a fair amount once we get the AH and have a better understanding of card values.

Vorpal
06-04-2014, 09:31 AM
I think price of primals may partially depend on what's in a legendary chest (one is guaranteed in every primal pack, right?)

negativeZer0
06-04-2014, 09:33 AM
This is kinda premature. Primals should be worth around the average value of their contents plus a premium for the legendary chest. Without knowing the average value of rares and legendaries, buy/sell offers right now are guesses at best and will likely change a fair amount once we get the AH and have a better understanding of card values.

I don't disagree at all however day 1 of the AH there wont be a standard set and primals will still most likely be for sale.
This is more to gauge what initial price may be on the AH not predict long term price.

Yoss
06-04-2014, 09:36 AM
I also only see prices for standard packs not Primal packs in your analysis (I'm assuming I'm just not looking in the right spot)

http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34329&page=12&p=363719&viewfull=1#post363719

This was at the end of the thread without link in the OP, sorry. Added direct link of the OP of that thread.

negativeZer0
06-04-2014, 09:42 AM
http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34329&page=12&p=363719&viewfull=1#post363719

So ya a repeat of my response to Lawl, basically the idea is to get a an estimation for an initial price before all the cards establish their individual values.

Also on a side not I did read that when you originally posted it and I did enjoy looking over the stats.

Banquetto
06-04-2014, 02:21 PM
This is kinda premature. Primals should be worth around the average value of their contents plus a premium for the legendary chest. Without knowing the average value of rares and legendaries, buy/sell offers right now are guesses at best and will likely change a fair amount once we get the AH and have a better understanding of card values.

Sure. But "day one" prices are going to be formed by people's guesses made without understanding.

Would you buy a primal for a dollar? Of course you would!!!

Would you sell me a primal for a hundred dollars? Of course you would!!!

So surely if you close your eyes you can land on a price somewhere in between that is the most you'd pay for one, and a price which is the least you'd sell one fore.

negativeZer0
06-04-2014, 02:49 PM
We've gotten 50ish replies so far going to keep this going for at least a full day before making anything public (again just trying nto to influence results) but we are getting people to actually answer the questions so yay for that.

Barkam
06-04-2014, 05:13 PM
Lol the nature of this exercise influences the perceived value of primals.

Xenavire
06-04-2014, 05:22 PM
Lol the nature of this exercise influences the perceived value of primals.

After the fact though, which means that the data collected should average out to a reasonable amount (which is probably going to be close to what we will see in-game.)

I do think that we would be better off with way more results but its not a bad starting point. A guideline for people to follow when first posting the auctions wouldn't be a bad thing.

sukebe
06-04-2014, 05:57 PM
This should be interesting. I filled out the survey myself as well to get in my 2p :-) my buy price is lower than my sell price, is anyone else like that? Don't list actual amounts until the OP gives us the results of course.

BKCshah
06-04-2014, 06:02 PM
why wouldn't your buy price be lower than your sell price? if anyone's is not, I will sell them every pack I own. Then, I will buy them all right back. thanks in advance.

Xenavire
06-04-2014, 06:06 PM
why wouldn't your buy price be lower than your sell price? if anyone's is not, I will sell them every pack I own. Then, I will buy them all right back. thanks in advance.

Thats one way to start a business! :p

sukebe
06-04-2014, 06:24 PM
why wouldn't your buy price be lower than your sell price? if anyone's is not, I will sell them every pack I own. Then, I will buy them all right back. thanks in advance.

lol, true for a business I suppose :-) I just figured that many would put the 2 prices either very close together or make them the same ( I may have watched to many auction tv shows that have very stupid sellers on it though). Until I get my play set I will not be selling any primals though (unless this survey shows the going price to be significantly higher than what I thought it would be, then I will jump on the selling bandwagon)

cavench
06-04-2014, 06:28 PM
I just figured that many would put the 2 prices either very close together or make them the same

My buy price is $10 and sell price is $40. :p

negativeZer0
06-05-2014, 05:42 AM
so I'm sitting at exactly 60 responses.

When do we want to start looking at the numbers?

Bare minimum I want to have this open for 24 hours so at minimum results wouldn't be posted till sometime late tonight.
I'm also out of town this weekend so if we want to hold off for more results then Monday (6/9) would be the day they get posted. What does everyone think?

Kami
06-05-2014, 06:06 AM
so I'm sitting at exactly 60 responses.

When do we want to start looking at the numbers?

Bare minimum I want to have this open for 24 hours so at minimum results wouldn't be posted till sometime late tonight.
I'm also out of town this weekend so if we want to hold off for more results then Monday (6/9) would be the day they get posted. What does everyone think?

Well, you're the only one who can see the results. If you see that there's a trend/pattern forming then might as well post it now since it wouldn't make a huge difference anyway the longer it continues. If there's a wide variance and no clear majority then let it ride longer.

MisterBurkes
06-05-2014, 08:34 AM
Your survey design requires you to filter out some of the responses ie. if someone submits a response saying they would buy a primal for $40 and sell for $10, that response is completely illogical. Likewise, if someone submits a response saying they would sell for $40 and buy for $10, it's a rational response but not one that is necessarily useful.

negativeZer0
06-05-2014, 09:43 AM
Your survey design requires you to filter out some of the responses ie. if someone submits a response saying they would buy a primal for $40 and sell for $10, that response is completely illogical. Likewise, if someone submits a response saying they would sell for $40 and buy for $10, it's a rational response but not one that is necessarily useful.

Yes, I'm well aware of this I will present both raw and filtered data as well as explanations for the filtering.

That said no your example would not be filtered. Although your example is indeed extreme there are situation it would make sense.

What is the most you wold buy for assumes u actually want to buy one and need cards
What is the least you would sell for assumes you don't need the cards or need currency for a very specific card and are looking for a fast sell so you can turn around and buy the 1 specific card you need.

Neither question is meant to imply you are buying and selling at the same exact time. If you were in the market to buy you would pay... if you were in the market to sell you would take...


An example of some of the data I am already filtering out is the 3 responses of $1 for both buy and sell.
These people either clearly do not know what a mythic pack is or their answer is so far removed from the other data that their answer is void.


Another Example of data that will be filtered out is the small number of people who's minimum sell price is above everyone elses maximum buy price
Extreme example so as to not use data from the survey:
Person A has a minimum sell price of $250, The max buy price of all other answers is $100, Person As min sell price is void and removed from the results

Finally i'll say it a second time just to make sure:
All of the Raw Unfiltered data will also be shown for those that wish to do their own analysis

Thraeg
06-05-2014, 10:16 AM
Yeah, I had a pretty substantial gap between mine, but that's because I answered based on my personal situation rather than what I expect the market to settle at.

Basically, I expect to get all the rares I need through drafting, so I have little incentive to open mine or buy more to open. And I need lots of plat to pay tournament entry fees. So whether the typical price winds up being high or low, I expect to be a seller, and it would take prices settling way below where they are expected to to make me change that.

negativeZer0
06-05-2014, 05:01 PM
Still getting a decent number of new entries to the survey (15 more since I posted this morning) so I'll keep it going for now. If poeple can help keep this towards the top over the weekend (I will be out of town without interwebs) to get as many responses as possible and ill get the data up Sunday Night or Monday at the latest.

Dynimix
06-05-2014, 05:11 PM
Regardless of the chatter, I am interested to see what people are selecting.

Skirovik
06-05-2014, 09:55 PM
Definitely interested in the data. Though what 100 forum go-ers think and what the 20k people playing think will likely vary by a good amount. That said, still interested, lol.

negativeZer0
06-08-2014, 08:34 PM
Survey closed
See: first page, second post, for raw data
Analysis coming soon

Chark
06-08-2014, 11:59 PM
Slightly better presentation of the raw data. I had to do quite a bit of excel and find/replace hacking from the original. :)



Cost Sell Buy
$1 4 1
$2 1 1
$3 0 1
$5 2 7
$6 0 5
$7 1 2
$8 0 5
$9 1 1
$10 11 13
$11 3 0
$12 8 8
$13 2 0
$14 1 1
$15 16 14
$16 1 3
$17 3 2
$18 2 2
$20 15 8
$22 1 0
$23 2 1
$24 1 1
$25 6 5
$29 0 1
$30 6 3
$31 0 1
$35 1 0
$39 1 1
$40 2 4


(copy paste the above into notepad first, then you should be able to paste into excel)

negativeZer0
06-09-2014, 06:04 AM
Slightly better presentation of the raw data. I had to do quite a bit of excel and find/replace hacking from the original. :)

[data]

(copy paste the above into notepad first, then you should be able to paste into excel)

Thanks Chark, I had intended to do something like that tonight, just got home too late last night.

You have buy/sell lables in the wrong order though

Fateanomaly
06-09-2014, 06:15 AM
$15 seems pretty reasonable.

mudkip
06-09-2014, 08:24 AM
$15 seems pretty reasonable.

Agreed on paper, but I have a feeling it will be a little bit higher.

I can't wait to see the Set 2 primals, I'm betting they will sell for $30-$40 the first few weeks, then settle on $20-$25.

Vorpal
06-09-2014, 09:24 AM
I don't quite see specifying the primal price point in $$ as terribly helpful when we don't even know what the price point of normal packs will be.

A $15 primal is a steal if normal packs are selling for, say, $1.67.

It's a bad price if normal packs are selling for $0.67

I expect the value of a primal to be slightly less than that of 15 normal packs, with the caveat that if the guaranteed legendary chest has something amazing in it, that might change.

Shivdaddy
06-09-2014, 02:02 PM
You guys understand the only reason packs are worth anything is because of limited right? If packs were only for ripping they would be worth 50 cents. Guess what pack is only for ripping?

Xenavire
06-09-2014, 02:14 PM
You guys understand the only reason packs are worth anything is because of limited right? If packs were only for ripping they would be worth 50 cents. Guess what pack is only for ripping?

The only one that guarantees you 2 legendaries and 13 rares? :p

Werlix
06-09-2014, 03:35 PM
You guys understand the only reason packs are worth anything is because of limited right? If packs were only for ripping they would be worth 50 cents. Guess what pack is only for ripping?

Yep - so the price for a primal pack should be worth something like (13 * avg. rare price) + (2 * avg. legendary price)

This is hard to estimate right now but I'd say the average rare price might be around 80c and the average legendary price might be around $3. This would put a primal pack at around $16.

Shivdaddy
06-09-2014, 05:31 PM
Yep - so the price for a primal pack should be worth something like (13 * avg. rare price) + (2 * avg. legendary price)

This is hard to estimate right now but I'd say the average rare price might be around 80c and the average legendary price might be around $3. This would put a primal pack at around $16.

Look what I bolded, this is where you people are crazy. The average rare will be 15 cents.

Xenavire
06-09-2014, 05:39 PM
Look what I bolded, this is where you people are crazy. The average rare will be 15 cents.

What is your definition of average? Inferno is going to be worth very little unless it has an amazing PvE application. But staples like Extinction are going to have very stable prices.

So, which are you talking about? Because I would say we have a lot of solid rares that will not drop so low as 15 cents, but we have a few trash ones that might.

Shivdaddy
06-09-2014, 06:42 PM
Trash ones will be 1 plat. Unless they make some sort of disenchant for crafting or whatever rares will be worth very very little.

Werlix
06-09-2014, 07:01 PM
Look what I bolded, this is where you people are crazy. The average rare will be 15 cents.

Wow ok. That's a bold prediction. It's also "bold" to call everyone else crazy for thinking differently, but we'll ignore that.

Why might I ask do you think the the average rare will be worth 7.5% the value of a full price booster?

Freebird_Falcon
06-09-2014, 07:36 PM
I think it will be unlikely that rares will be so low when crafting is implemented. Cheap rares will go up in baseline value if the formula is any rare = x material. Consider AH fees will also inflate prices somewhat. I would guess 4:$1 is probably the lowest we'll see. Who knows, we might not even see too many listed for cheap since they could list in gold

Fateanomaly
06-09-2014, 07:43 PM
No way rares will be so cheap. There is no reason for anyone to sell them if they are that cheap. The lowest i will price it is 50cents. Pretty sure disenchant will be in and there will be new players coming in as well.

Vorpal
06-09-2014, 08:34 PM
Trash ones will be 1 plat. Unless they make some sort of disenchant for crafting or whatever rares will be worth very very little.

This is why I want crafting via disenchanting pvp cards to be a thing.

sukebe
06-09-2014, 09:00 PM
This is why I want crafting via disenchanting pvp cards to be a thing.

I believe they did say we would be able to disenchant the pvp cards. so even if we cannot craft any rare/legendary pvp cards we can still take apart the trash cards.

Oroniss
06-09-2014, 11:54 PM
If there are any rares going for 1 plat each I'll probably buy a few hundred (or more) just in case they end up being useful in crafting. At that price you don't really lose much if they aren't. In fact it would also be worth buying them speculatively in case a set 2 or 3 card suddenly makes them good.

Honestly though, I think there will be enough collectors trying to get playsets of even the less useful cards that I would be surprised if they ever end up at that price. My prediction is that they settle in around 40-50p for the less played ones, up to a dollar or two for the in demand ones. Later sets perhaps a bit higher.

On that basis, a primal pack price of 15-20 dollars is probably reasonable. I'm really interested to see how the market plays out though since it could easily be quite different from what people expect.

Banquetto
06-10-2014, 04:40 AM
Look what I bolded, this is where you people are crazy. The average rare will be 15 cents.

Where is the supply of 15 cent rares going to come from?

That would, surely, value the entire contents of a booster at 20 cents or less?

Or do you see legendaries as being a much higher price than anticipated? Like $10-$20? So the average value of a pack's contents is still somewhere sane, but it's just "get a legendary and your pack is worth something, don't get a legendary and it's all so much toilet paper"?

negativeZer0
06-10-2014, 05:52 AM
so average price of 15 cents a rare is HIGHLY unlikely.

We know bulk rares and even commons will be useful down the road for PvE crafting.

We know that despite the mass influx of packs from KS the majority of players are still lacking many rares
(I've opened over 500 packs and am still missing rares, most people have opened way less than this)

We can reasonably state that once the AH/trading are implemented and they start running big tournaments that constructed format will start getting played way more than it is now.

I just do not see rares getting that cheap.

Anyway apologies for not doing anything with the data yet, I ended up having a personal matter come up that required my attention last night and tonight I am busy as well.

Anyone that is familiar with data analysis is welcome to take a whack at it if they want but if not I promise to get to it sometime this week.

mach
06-10-2014, 09:03 AM
An average of 15c for rares seems quite reasonable, actually. Maybe even a bit high.

I looked at MTGO prices for rares in Theros (the most recent big set). Using Supernova bot prices (averaging their buy and sell prices), I got an average of 27.4c per rare. Given that MTGO packs are twice as much as Hex packs, we could estimate an average of 13.7c for Hex rares. And that's not even taking into account all the extra supply for Set 1.

arastor
06-10-2014, 09:39 AM
An average of 15c for rares seems quite reasonable, actually. Maybe even a bit high.

I looked at MTGO prices for rares in Theros (the most recent big set). Using Supernova bot prices (averaging their buy and sell prices), I got an average of 27.4c per rare. Given that MTGO packs are twice as much as Hex packs, we could estimate an average of 13.7c for Hex rares. And that's not even taking into account all the extra supply for Set 1.

Yee gads! What's the average for mythics?!? I'm curious how much of the difference they make up.

mach
06-10-2014, 09:51 AM
Yee gads! What's the average for mythics?!? I'm curious how much of the difference they make up.

Average for Theros mythics is $4.63.

Incindium
06-10-2014, 11:16 AM
What would Primal Packs be worth using $.15 estimated rare price?

mach
06-10-2014, 11:32 AM
What would Primal Packs be worth using $.15 estimated rare price?

A primal has 13 rares, 2 legendaries, and 1 chest. If we use $.15 per rare and $2.30 per legendary, we get $6.55, plus the value of the chest.

sukebe
06-10-2014, 03:23 PM
Yee gads! What's the average for mythics?!? I'm curious how much of the difference they make up.

Keep in mind that prices for MTG have dropped dramatically since the Boxmapper programs came out. These allow you to buy a box, open a couple of packs, then cherry pick the blocks best rares and mythics out of the box then sell the rest of the boosters that contain junk rares.

It is a different story with out of print sets though, their prices are higher because the box mapper programmer does not have access to the fresh cases he needs to create the addon for them.

prices were much higher before this could be done. I really wish I had sold my collection before this happened.

mach
06-10-2014, 03:41 PM
Keep in mind that prices for MTG have dropped dramatically since the Boxmapper programs came out. These allow you to buy a box, open a couple of packs, then cherry pick the blocks best rares and mythics out of the box then sell the rest of the boosters that contain junk rares.

It is a different story with out of print sets though, their prices are higher because the box mapper programmer does not have access to the fresh cases he needs to create the addon for them.

prices were much higher before this could be done. I really wish I had sold my collection before this happened.

First, that's not true in the slightest. Second, I'm talking about online prices, not paper.

Shivdaddy
06-10-2014, 04:24 PM
An average of 15c for rares seems quite reasonable, actually. Maybe even a bit high.

I looked at MTGO prices for rares in Theros (the most recent big set). Using Supernova bot prices (averaging their buy and sell prices), I got an average of 27.4c per rare. Given that MTGO packs are twice as much as Hex packs, we could estimate an average of 13.7c for Hex rares. And that's not even taking into account all the extra supply for Set 1.

Exactly. Sorry for crushing so many dreams.

sukebe
06-10-2014, 11:40 PM
First, that's not true in the slightest. Second, I'm talking about online prices, not paper.

lol, that is completely true. what about it do you not see/understand? I used to sell cards from home but the new app makes it possible for anyone to get what they want with minimal price as long as boosters can be resold for reasonable amounts.

Edit: to be more precise I am not talking about the price of junk rares. I am talking about the chase rares/mythics. This affects the average price though as their prices dropped dramatically after the boxmapper app became more popular. They may have dropped for another reason but the timeline leads me to believe this was the cause.

Junk rares have always been $0.2 to $0.5 but the average price of rares has fallen recently. This has a noticeable effect on the average price of rares.