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malloc31
06-10-2014, 06:56 AM
What do you think the going rate for buying packs with gold would be? I think I would be willing to sell for 150k or 200k a pack (assuming you earn gold in PVE at about the same rate you earn it doing tournaments now)

jonsnow2000
06-10-2014, 07:03 AM
Problem is that not many ppl will have gold amounts significantly above 100k, considering that most spend their gold on chest rolling right away

teasel
06-10-2014, 07:04 AM
what's the rate of gaining gold for tournament at the moment? i've always wondered this for a while...

Rendakor
06-10-2014, 07:12 AM
20k for first, 17k for 2nd, 10k for 3rd & 4th, 5k for 5th - 8th.

malloc31
06-10-2014, 07:14 AM
well if you feel you will be gold starved then how much gold would you sell a pack for?


(I am sure there will be some players who have lots of gold, I know I will start saving when they announce the AH will be soon)

Refugee
06-10-2014, 07:30 AM
I think I'd probably be willing to sell some packs somewhere between 50k and 100k gold. I have a lot of rare chests that need spinning (well, what I consider a lot. Not dozens like some people).

zz_tophat
06-10-2014, 07:50 AM
Packs for gold will most likely be my preferred means of converting plat to gold (if the gold grind ever gets bothersome) but I'll wait for PvE first to do so, to see how much gold is really worth.

Lawlschool
06-10-2014, 07:55 AM
150k to 200k seems absurdly high. The quickest way to get that much right now is 8 tournament wins (8 wins x 20k per win = 160k), and assuming each tournament lasts around 2.5 hrs, that's about 20hrs of playtime for one pack. Assuming you earn gold in PvE at about the same rate you do for tournaments, this seems to me to be fairly steep.

I don't know that this is something we can reasonably speculate on right now, since there's just so much we don't know about gold and PvE. 150k might end up being a drop in the bucket to most, or it might be a respectable amount. Personally, I think that the gold flow in to the economy right now is restricted to prevent too much hoarding, so there might not be much we can glean from tournament winnings.

One way you might be able to look at the problem of how much gold a booster should sell for is by considering a draft tournament winner (once gold rewards are gone). The draft winner will have 3 chests from opened boosters and 5 packs. Three packs go to the next draft, one pack sells for Plat to fund the entry fee, and one pack sells for Gold to spin the chests. Assuming the player only wants to sell that pack for Gold and isn't looking to sell for much more than it costs to roll on the chests, you might see him selling a pack for around 10k. To be fair, I'm making some big assumptions here, and 10k seems quite low.

I just don't think we can do any meaningful speculation on this without knowing more about the PvE side of the economy.

Freebird_Falcon
06-10-2014, 08:05 AM
I agree with lawl. Minimally, it's $1 per 5k if you already have the packs to draft, and if the gold was your sole focus you're still looking at 30 mins to rare draft. 2+ hours if you're going for over 10k. I would be very surprised if the market priced over 10k (while tournaments remains the only gold input)

Yoss
06-10-2014, 08:23 AM
My best guess is 100p = 13250g, which is based on the pay structure of Swiss tournaments. I posted the full analysis elsewhere, can't remember which thread.

Vorpal
06-10-2014, 08:27 AM
What do you think the going rate for buying packs with gold would be? I think I would be willing to sell for 150k or 200k a pack (assuming you earn gold in PVE at about the same rate you earn it doing tournaments now)

Well, right now, you get about 5k gold for 100

In which case, buying a pack for 200k gold would be like buying it for 4k plat, which I don't really see happening.

The amount of gold you need to buy a pack will depend entirely on the gold to plat conversion, which will depend on how fast gold is earned in pve vs how fast it is spent. We have no idea how fast it will be earned in pve. We know gold will be spent on wheel of fate (and I need hundreds of thousands of gold to roll all my chests) but there may well be additional gold sinks like crafting.

Did CZE pick the 5k gold = 1 plat figure because it's where they 'expect' it to settle or did they just pick a random round number for testing?

Yoss
06-10-2014, 08:28 AM
Vorpal, you mean 5k per 100p.

And I have done the math. It's more like 13250g per 100p.

Vorpal
06-10-2014, 08:31 AM
Vorpal, you mean 5k per 100p.

And I have done the math. It's more like 13250g per 100p.

Oops, sorry, you're right. I keep thinking of 100 plat as '1 plat' where 'plat' = RL $ I had to spend :p

Let's say 15k gold per 100p then (because I like nice round numbers). Selling a pack for 150,000 gold would thus be selling it for 1k plat ($10) which I also don't really see happening.

That said, I see no particular reason to expect the amount of gold we get from tournaments to mean anything. If anything, I would expect CZE to lowball how much gold we get to avoid breaking the economy. It's really just there so we can test the mechanics of WOF and such.

Yoss
06-10-2014, 08:46 AM
Here's what I posted before:


OK, so max Gold price would be based on Swiss Constructed 300P:5000G (1/16.7).
We can be 100% sure it will never go that high, otherwise you'd just go join Constructed and play for free/profit.
A softer but very strong maximum would be based on average payout (300P:13250G, or 1/44.2).
We can soften further by guessing that AH boosters are worth 133P and multiplying by the average payout of 1.5 packs (200P) then subtracting that off the entry (300P-200P=100P) and get 100P:13250G or 1/132.5 P:G ratio.

For draft, cost is 3x 133P plus 100P (500P), minus 1.5 packs payout (200P), minus 3x opened packs (maybe 200P?), which is 100P for the same Gold amounts as Constructed paid 100P.
So Draft is the same Gold value as Constructed if pack contents (3 packs) are worth 200P. If more, then Draft is better Gold.
If less, Constructed is better for Gold.
(There is also the consideration that draft makes 3 more chests that want to consume Gold, so it may actually net negative. I don't think we have enough chest stats yet to calculate the average Gold demand that each pack represents.)

Average gold payout (elimination queue):
8th-5th--0.5*5000G = 2500G
4th-3rd--0.25*10000G = 2500G
2nd------0.125*17000G = 2125G
1st------0.125*20000G = 2500G
total----9625G

Average gold payout (swiss queue):
8th------0.125*5000G = 825G
7th-5th--0.375*10000G = 3750G
4th-2nd--0.375*17000G = 6375G
1st------0.125*20000G = 2500G
total----13250G

Summary:
My best guess of P:G ratio is 100/13250 as long as PvP is paying Gold in the current ways.

Lawlschool
06-10-2014, 08:48 AM
That said, I see no particular reason to expect the amount of gold we get from tournaments to mean anything. If anything, I would expect CZE to lowball how much gold we get to avoid breaking the economy. It's really just there so we can test the mechanics of WOF and such.

My thoughts exactly. Do we have the drop-chances for chests anywhere (i.e. % chance to get a Common / Uncommon / Rare / Legendary chest from a pack)? Since we get 77k Gold combined from tournaments, I'm curious to figure out if that's enough gold to roll all the chests received from drafting. My guess is that it's not, or that it is at least close, in order to better balance the amount of gold going in and out of the economy right now.

Yoss
06-10-2014, 08:53 AM
There was a thread for chest drop rates, but people stopped posting in it, and Colin said the results were off. I'd say we need to try again.

Chark has said that more chests are dropping than there is gold to feed them. In order for gold to hold value, we must have sinks > faucets.

Svenn
06-10-2014, 08:56 AM
(I am sure there will be some players who have lots of gold, I know I will start saving when they announce the AH will be soon)
The AH is coming a week from tomorrow (assuming no delays).

malloc31
06-10-2014, 09:03 AM
right now you can't earn gold with out spending platinum (or free draft ticket which is equivalent).

But you guys aren't considering once PVE is in there will be a way to earn it with no investment other then your time. And many people do not value there time gaming highly. This will lower the cost of gold a lot (maybe not to my estimates but above the estimate from only drafting).

Lawlschool
06-10-2014, 09:04 AM
Chark has said that more chests are dropping than there is gold to feed them. In order for gold to hold value, we must have sinks > faucets.

That's good enough for me. I collected chest drop data for about 200 packs during Alpha, but unwisely wrote it down on scrap paper and probably lost the results.

Yoss
06-10-2014, 09:28 AM
But you guys aren't considering once PVE is in there will be a way to earn it with no investment other then your time.

Oh really?


Summary:
My best guess of P:G ratio is 100/13250 as long as PvP is paying Gold in the current ways.

But yes, you're correct. However, we also have to assume there will be OTHER gold sinks once PvE comes along, like Keep Defense (or whatever). Chark seems like a smart dude. I'm sure he can figure out ways to follow his own advice (sinks > faucets).

nicosharp
06-10-2014, 10:48 AM
I just a little quick math - It's all speculative, because gold has no true value.

I came up with about half your number Yoss which is 100% based on Gold payout in tournaments, with pack value factored in averaging in a median for ways to input payments for draft. (even with reduced pack purchase value for VIP).

After averaging for players that actually are the top 4 - the value they would sell it for is about exactly what you came up with. If you factor that the bottom 4 would not sell and would be considered losers, this makes sense.

Unfortunately, I can not post the spreadsheet correctly (no time)

unadjusted:
Cash Gold (limited) Packs (@ $2) Value
Packs + Tickets Input 1 $8 24 $56
Straight Purchase Input 2 $56 $56
VIP Input 3 $8 12 $32
Median
Output 77000 12 $48
Prize payout value = half of median input $24
If gold payout value = half of prize $ payout $12
Gold value per $1 in Plat: 6416.66

Fateanomaly
06-10-2014, 10:56 AM
It really depends on the pve payout. Tournament gold will be gone eventually.

nicosharp
06-10-2014, 11:11 AM
It really depends on the pve payout. Tournament gold will be gone eventually.

It is only a temporary arbitrary value until PvE and the removal of gold rewards for tournaments.
However, I'd be happy with gold rewards staying :P

Yoss
06-10-2014, 11:24 AM
It really depends on the pve payout. Tournament gold will be gone eventually.

What "it" are you referring to? The CurEx when AH comes during Closed or when PvE comes sometime later? The current discussion is only about the PvP-only Beta. Obviously everything changes when the PvP faucet turns off and the PvE faucet(s) turn on.




Cash Gold (limited) Packs (@ $2) Value
Packs + Tickets Input 1 $8 24 $56
Straight Purchase Input 2 $56 $56
VIP Input 3 $8 12 $32
Median
Output 77000 12 $48
Prize payout = 1/2 median input $24
If gold value = half of prize $ payout $12
Gold value per $1 in Plat: 6416.66

To be more accurate, the input should be 100p plus 3 AH packs and nothing else. The AH price will already factor in all other considerations (Primals, VIP, etc). I used 133p, but anything from 100p to 167p would be reasonable in my mind, based on the Booster Price Analysis Thread results. If you do that, your input drops from 5600p to 4000p. Your output also drops to 1600p + 77000g, but you really should use the higher paying queue (swiss) which gives 106000g, and you need to account for the value of the drafted cards (hard to guess, maybe 1600p). So, net input is 800p (4000-1600-1600), net output is 106000g, which is a ratio of 100p:13250g (same as I reported before).

Lots of assumptions in there, so feel free to tweak the numbers a bit to your taste. Pushing up the AH price of either the packs or the cards will drive down the predicted gold value, and vice versa. Also, using the elimination queue payout will increase the predicted gold value substantially.

Serax
06-10-2014, 11:27 AM
With my quick math:
700 plat to enter draft.
1st 20k Gold
2nd 17k
3&4 10k
5&6 5k

High speculation (20000/7)*2=5714 gold per pack
Median speculation ((67000/8)/7)*2=2392 per pack
Low speculation (5000/7)*2=1429 gold per pack

Now once the auction house is online and the secondary pack market goes online all "7" values above would reflect ((3P)+100)/100) where P=secondary market pack value.

I hope this makes sense.

malloc31
06-10-2014, 11:47 AM
What "it" are you referring to? The CurEx when AH comes during Closed or when PvE comes sometime later? The current discussion is only about the PvP-only Beta. Obviously everything changes when the PvP faucet turns off and the PvE faucet(s) turn on.

No, if you read the first post in this post. I said assuming PVE pays out about what PVP is currently paying out. Meaning once we are in PVE and the AH is up (since it doesn't mater with no AH). But to assume the payout per time is about equal to the payout per time of gold given now for tournaments.

ie. it wont be based on entrance fees any more just amount of time wasted to gain it.

Yoss
06-10-2014, 12:33 PM
No, if you read the first post in this post. I said assuming PVE pays out about what PVP is currently paying out. Meaning once we are in PVE and the AH is up (since it doesn't mater with no AH). But to assume the payout per time is about equal to the payout per time of gold given now for tournaments.

ie. it wont be based on entrance fees any more just amount of time wasted to gain it.

Ah. In that case, no one has any clue without making huge assumptions even beyond what my analysis already does. For example, what value do you assume for a person's time? 100p per hour? 1000? 10? 1? I have no freaking idea. Your analysis will have error bars that are an order of magnitude larger than your answer, which means you really have no answer at all.

The only way to answer the question is to wait and see what Mr.Market comes up with.

poizonous
06-10-2014, 12:56 PM
5000 gold per pack seems extremely low. So your saying entering a draft and losing in round 1 which earns you 5K gold can get you a pack??? No way. It will definitely be about 10-12K per pack, which is fair I think. And as others have said, once PvE comes in, the gold distribution will change that number

Vorpal
06-10-2014, 01:00 PM
No, if you read the first post in this post. I said assuming PVE pays out about what PVP is currently paying out.

I don't see any particular reason to suppose this. In fact, if I were CZE, I'd take great pains to make sure I didn't flood the economy with too much gold via Pvp and make the amount given us right now for testing rather artificially low.

I'm not even sure how you'd measure the rates of gold earned in pvp to pve. In PvP, you earn a certain amount of gold per plat you spend. In pve you earn a certain amount of gold per.... what?

Xenavire
06-10-2014, 01:32 PM
I don't see any particular reason to suppose this. In fact, if I were CZE, I'd take great pains to make sure I didn't flood the economy with too much gold via Pvp and make the amount given us right now for testing rather artificially low.

I'm not even sure how you'd measure the rates of gold earned in pvp to pve. In PvP, you earn a certain amount of gold per plat you spend. In pve you earn a certain amount of gold per.... what?

Per section of the dungeon you clear without losing. 3 times. It is going to be hard to measure in time or monetary worth, especially without knowing how much each dungeon pays out on average to time spent, or knowing what kinds of decks will perform better etc.

It's an enigma until we get hands on I think.

Turtlewing
06-10-2014, 02:26 PM
I don't know. Since tournaments granting gold is known to be a placeholder, it would not surprise me if PvE dropped notably more gold than tournaments.

I know if I were putting in a temporary gold faucet before the bulk of gold sinks were implemented I'd set that faucet to "trickle" not "full blast".

Shivdaddy
06-10-2014, 04:41 PM
Besides doing it for fun, its a waste of time to throw out spec on how much gold will be worth. Until we know exactly how it pays out in PVE and if they take it away from tournaments there really is no good way to gauge it.

You guys who think it will be a cheaper ration of Gold to plat are crazy. You have to remember once this game goes big there will be so many people who will not drop a dime on this game and the AH will be flooded with gold. Since they are not going to be paying with plat no matter what (keeping packs cheap, Plat wise), this will cause a bidding war driving up the prices of packs (gold wise).

TOOT
06-10-2014, 05:49 PM
I would guess the gold-->time invested ratio for tournaments currently would be higher than what the PVE gold--> time invested ratio would be when PVE is out.

They've been overly generous in the support department and would think these gold rewards are an additional thank you for dealing with the growing pains of the game thus far.

shocker455
06-10-2014, 06:05 PM
Im assuming you guy are trying to figure out this for once the AH comes out, and not when PvE comes out.

If so, i think you guys are going at it from the wrong direction. Even though it takes 100plat and 2-4 hours to get gold, the problem is the lack of uses for it. A person who drafts fairly often should have enough gold to open all their common and probably uncommon chests. People arn't going to trade a pack for 1-2 rare chest roles.

I see packs being worth at least 50,000g, but probably more like 100k-200k

Banquetto
06-10-2014, 06:13 PM
Ah. In that case, no one has any clue without making huge assumptions even beyond what my analysis already does. For example, what value do you assume for a person's time? 100p per hour? 1000? 10? 1? I have no freaking idea.

My gut feeling from other F2P games which allow buying and selling of cash shop items for in-game currency is that prices settle at around the point where the currency earned in one hour of grinding at the best efficiency possible in the game will be worth 50c to $1.00.

Vorpal
06-11-2014, 08:18 AM
I would guess the gold-->time invested ratio for tournaments currently would be higher than what the PVE gold--> time invested ratio would be when PVE is out.

They've been overly generous in the support department and would think these gold rewards are an additional thank you for dealing with the growing pains of the game thus far.

That would be a bad idea though, because then it messes up their economy. If they are smart, the gold granted from pvp will be a tiny trickle, just for testing purposes, compared to what you get from pve.

Xenavire
06-11-2014, 08:57 AM
I still think that a day of grinding will only pay out approx 10k gold. Any more and gold will be seriously devalued for WoF.

Shivdaddy
06-11-2014, 01:53 PM
I still think that a day of grinding will only pay out approx 10k gold. Any more and gold will be seriously devalued for WoF.

Ill take the over on that, want to bet 10k gold on it?:) A days grinding will be over 10k gold.

Werlix
06-11-2014, 02:10 PM
Man I seriously hope that most predictions here of packs being sold for 10k-15k gold are correct. I've stopped rolling chests because I don't really care too much about PvE and I'm not even sure how valuable the chests are. And even with my low rate of drafting (1-2 drafts a week) I have 100k gold stockpiled.

If plat/gold is indeed 1/132.5 then my stockpile will be valued at a free $7.50 chunk of plat :) I'm not so optimistic though...

Clawdius
06-11-2014, 05:03 PM
it is troublesome to quantify this sort of thing before the market normalizes, but there can be little doubt that there will be a ton of packs to be had for fairly insignificant sums of gold early on, creating a buyers market with regards to packs. When there is more gold in the game the sinks of the wheels of fate should help keep costs from skyrocketting, but it's a fairly safe bet that they will normalize for something like 2-4x what you can pick up packs for early on if you horde all your gold and try to buy low. Sinking enough gold in Guild Wars 2 to buy myself enough extra character slots was a good idea, but I really probably should have sunk all of my gold into gems when the exchange rate was something like 1 gold for 100 gems since it jumped from that to about 4-100 just a few days after release.

Of course, if there are a lot of people out there hoarding gold in order to try to buy packs low right out of the gate knowing that there are a lot of people who will have more set 1 packs than they know what to do with that might make the market stabilize rather quickly, but it's typically a safe bet to pick up something that will retain value early on in a market that is inherently volatile.

Zophie
06-11-2014, 11:33 PM
What I've been thinking about is the dynamic of the motivations between buyers and sellers on both ends of the transactions. Before PVE comes out there is obviously a more limited amount of reasons for someone to purchase a pack using gold, and a limited amount of reasons for one to sell a pack to obtain gold. I think that we can speculate a lot about the price, but ultimately the price is always going to fluctuate based on the player's motivations for participating in either side of the deal. It'll be very interesting to see how this price might reflect some of the demographics of our playerbase and the manner in which they're willing to invest in the economy.

... And then PVE will come and blow all our expectations out of the water :)