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htesrepus
06-28-2014, 09:43 AM
Have any of you statistics nerds figured out the chance of drawing a legendary in a booster pack?

Xenavire
06-28-2014, 10:13 AM
They placed it at approx 1/9.

ossuary
06-28-2014, 11:19 AM
Chark stated the chances were 1/9, and some testing done by the community during late alpha and early beta have shown that to be pretty much spot on.

Yoss
06-28-2014, 04:03 PM
1/9 for legendary to replace the rare
2% to proc a primal pack
Chest drop chances are not well defined (someone get on that!)*
Chest spin chances are gathering data (I think it's in the Beta subforum)

* There was a thread where we tried but the data was corrupted somehow, at least for the legendaries.

ossuary
06-28-2014, 08:20 PM
Wheels of Fate spin stats and reporting:
http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34986

Based on community states, chest drop rates are roughly:
60% common
27.5% uncommon
10% rare
2.5% legendary

According to Colin, Chark says those numbers are not quite correct, but that's what the community average worked out to when we were tracking it.

Yoss
06-28-2014, 10:24 PM
My personal data says legendary chest is more like 2%, so I would guess that the data in the tracking thread was polluted by people reporting their primal packs as part of the stats. Either that or we just needed more data and it was actually 3% (actual data had it around 2.7% or so if I remember right).

ossuary
06-29-2014, 05:54 AM
2% chance of a primal pack from a booster and 2% chance of a legendary chest from a booster has a nice symmetry to it. Sounds like something Chark might do. :)

Yoss
06-30-2014, 02:06 PM
60/28/10/2 does seem like a nicer split, and since these things aren't arbitrary (a human is deciding them) it makes sense that they'd be round numbers.

hex_colin
06-30-2014, 03:08 PM
Or 60/27/10/3 perhaps.

Yoss
06-30-2014, 03:34 PM
Or 60/27/10/3 perhaps.

That would also make sense. :)

My data says:


leg rar unc com
2.79% 10.62% 27.63% 58.96%