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LNQ
07-31-2014, 10:05 AM
Wondering about the contents of chests, I started thinking about how rare each chest really is and thus how big of an increase there should be in content from one rarity to the next.

I don't have the chest drop rarity at hand, but IIRC it's something like:

65% to get a common chest
30% to get an uncommon chest
12.5% to get a rare chest
2.5% to get a legendary chest
0% to get a primal, only obtainable through spins

Now, considering that pack has one chest in it, the rare chests are about as hard to obtain as legendaries. On average for every 1600p you spend on packs in the store, you'll get one rare chest. Just as well as on average for every 1800p you spend on packs in the store, you'll get one legendary pvp card.

The legendary chests on the other hand are truly hard to come by. If the 2.5% drop chance is correct, then for every 8000p you spend on packs in the store you'll get one legendary chest.

My point here is, I hope the satisfaction of opening the rare, legendary and primal chests is on par with how hard they really are to come by. I also hope that the rewards for each chest within tiers vary as well, so that you can hit a true motherload from one chests while most are more ordinary.

PS. Random thought: A 'jackpot' chest could also be fun, something that could trigger regardless of the tier of the chest.

Vorpal
07-31-2014, 10:24 AM
I kind of hope an uncommon chest has an uncommon card in it, a rare chest has a rare card in itn a legendary chest has a legendary card in it, etc.

ossuary
07-31-2014, 10:39 AM
What we know about chests for now:

Drop rates are roughly:
65% common
30% uncommon
12% rare
3% legendary

So legendary chance is very slightly higher than you thought, otherwise pretty much correct.

Contents:
common and uncommon chests: 1 item
rare and legendary chests: 2 items
primal chests: 3 items

Items can be: PVE cards, PVE equipment, PVP equipment, mercenaries, sleeves, PVP cards, additional booster packs, gold... maybe something else as well that we don't know about yet.

Now, PRESUMABLY, opening a higher level chest will also give you a higher (or maybe even guaranteed) chance to get uncommon or rare versions of the above items, or straight up have items in the loot table that are impossible to get at lower rarity - I would certainly hope so, considering the prizes on Wheels of Fate don't scale with rarity, and it costs a buttload of gold to roll for higher level chests with no actual benefit on the Wheels vs. just spinning common chests.

I hope the intent is to also give better items, not just more of the same items. I know I'd be pretty damn pissed if I spent 30K gold several times to spin and upgrade a legendary chest to primal, then opened the primal chest and got 3 common PVE cards out of it. :p

Lawlschool
07-31-2014, 10:40 AM
So this is how rumors start, but I vaguely recall something about each level of chest rarity increasing the amount of stuff you can get. I can't remember enough to search for proof, so hopefully someone can back me up or shoot me down, but it was something like, C gets one roll on the loot table, UC gets 2, R gets 3, L gets 4. Not sure if each chest uses a different loot table or not, but it would seem like common sense to have higher rarity chests have better chances of receiving better loot.

Edit: Oss beat me to the punch! I kinda got it right but not quite. Thanks Oss!

dogmod
07-31-2014, 10:45 AM
Contents:
common and uncommon chests: 1 item
rare and legendary chests: 2 items
primal chests: 3 items



Pretty sure that part is total fabrication

ossuary
07-31-2014, 10:51 AM
Nope, that came direct from Cory in one of his interviews.

Possibly the hour long interview he did with Infam0usNe0? It was (relatively) recent.

Hatts
07-31-2014, 10:58 AM
I would certainly hope so, considering the prizes on Wheels of Fate don't scale with rarity, and it costs a buttload of gold to roll for higher level chests with no actual benefit on the Wheels vs. just spinning common chests.

I know there was a massive thread tracking this to prove me wrong but when I started rolling my rare chests I started getting some rewards I had never seen over ~100 commons (the rarer merc, the AA wrathwood.)

I know I am being that guy giving anecdotal evidence...

/thread derail

ossuary
07-31-2014, 11:11 AM
Hatts, we didn't compile NEARLY enough data to even take a stab at guessing on that. We had very little data submitted by people spinning rare chests in particular because there wasn't a lot of gold available at the time and nobody has posted any updated spins for a couple of weeks now even with the higher payout tournaments.

All we really have to go on with that is Colin stating in his usual oblique fashion, "I'll be spinning ALL of my common chests first." That was all the "confirmation" I needed to tell me which chest you were spinning didn't really have any impact on what prizes you could get. If we gather enough evidence to contradict that in practice, I'm certainly willing to reassess my opinion. God knows I haven't rolled any rare sleeves, mercs, or PVE cards yet in nearly 400 spins. :(

Lawlschool
07-31-2014, 11:28 AM
Hatts, we didn't compile NEARLY enough data to even take a stab at guessing on that. We had very little data submitted by people spinning rare chests in particular because there wasn't a lot of gold available at the time and nobody has posted any updated spins for a couple of weeks now even with the higher payout tournaments.

All we really have to go on with that is Colin stating in his usual oblique fashion, "I'll be spinning ALL of my common chests first." That was all the "confirmation" I needed to tell me which chest you were spinning didn't really have any impact on what prizes you could get. If we gather enough evidence to contradict that in practice, I'm certainly willing to reassess my opinion. God knows I haven't rolled any rare sleeves, mercs, or PVE cards yet in nearly 400 spins. :(

I think there is a difference in regards to the PvE equipment, at least. I'm fairly certain I got the 3 mercs / 2 AAs / 2 PvE cards from rolling Commons and just getting lucky with 3x Red or Gold, but I only seem to get two different equips from commons, and seem to get more variety / better equips from the uncommons (I'll almost always get those damn boots from commons, rarely the chimes, but I feel like I see the chimes more often with UCs, and pretty sure I got the mitts from a UC).

But yeah, since we have next to zero real info on UC / R rolls, all this is wild speculation. Maybe I'll just go ahead and roll a bunch of rares, since I think we're gonna see some serious gold inflation once PvE hits.

dmc349
07-31-2014, 11:36 AM
The legendary chests on the other hand are truly hard to come by. If the 2.5% drop chance is correct, then for every 8000p you spend on packs in the store you'll get one legendary chest.

if you spend 10,000p you should get 2 legendary chests if you factor in getting a primal pack for the extra one

Bells
07-31-2014, 11:48 AM
What i want is a Floor cut on chests. There is very little that would be more frustrating than opening a rare chest to get 2 common items...

ossuary
07-31-2014, 11:51 AM
What i want is a Floor cut on chests. There is very little that would be more frustrating than opening a rare chest to get 2 common items...

Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. Maybe they have completely different loot tables in addition to having a different number of items? Or in D&D terms, the common chests would roll from 1-80 on the loot table, uncommons 6-85, rares 11-90, etc. So as you go up to higher level chests, not only do you get more items, but you have zero chance to get the absolute bottom "gutter" drops anymore.

hex_colin
07-31-2014, 11:51 AM
The chests are a bonus. Extra stuff for free. Whilst I agree that rarer chests should have "more" stuff in them than less rare chests, I don't think it's reasonable to have any expectations about the rarity of the contents.

dogmod
07-31-2014, 11:54 AM
The chests are a bonus. Extra stuff for free. Whilst I agree that rarer chests should have "more" stuff in them than less rare chests, I don't think it's reasonable to have any expectations about the rarity of the contents.

Last I heard all the difference is = more items... So common =1 unc=2 rare=3 leg=4 and primal=5

Still going with the fact that ossuary is dreaming about his "confirmation"

Scammanator
07-31-2014, 12:34 PM
The chests are a bonus. Extra stuff for free. Whilst I agree that rarer chests should have "more" stuff in them than less rare chests, I don't think it's reasonable to have any expectations about the rarity of the contents.

I would agree with you here Colin, if it weren't for the current setup of the Wheels of Fate. Spinning the wheels for rarer chests costs a lot more than spinning for common chests. As far as we can tell, the rewards given by the wheels are the same, with the exception of the rarity of chest you end up with after an upgrade. You have to spin a rare or legendary chest for a chance at a primal chest. Given the low chance of that occurring combined with the high investment cost, I would expect something pretty special to be able to be found only in Primal chests (or at least found at a significantly higher rate). If a Primal just has more items, it would have to have A LOT more items to be worth the risk of spinning the wheels for them.

To be clear, I'm not talking about what we deserve from primal chests. I'm just saying that the game design behind the wheels of fate makes no sense if a primal chest is equivalent to opening five common chests.

Yoss
07-31-2014, 12:58 PM
Am I the only one who thinks we should type "100,00p" instead of "10,000p"?

Vorpal
07-31-2014, 01:01 PM
The chests are a bonus. Extra stuff for free. Whilst I agree that rarer chests should have "more" stuff in them than less rare chests, I don't think it's reasonable to have any expectations about the rarity of the contents.

Rolling chests is not free. It costs gold - sometimes lots of gold.

If opening a primal chest is just like opening four common chests, then you would be pretty foolish to spend gold rolling on higher rarity chests in the first place - youd be better off buying more packs with that gold.

hex_colin
07-31-2014, 01:06 PM
Rolling chests is not free. It costs gold - sometimes lots of gold.

If opening a primal chest is just like opening four common chests, then you would be pretty foolish to spend gold rolling on higher rarity chests in the first place - youd be better off buying more packs with that gold.

The chests are free - you get them for free when you open a pack. I didn't say rolling them was free.

It's a Gold Sink. Also, you get the chance of free prizes per spin. Finally, and most importantly, you don't have to spin them! It's a gamble, even more so right now when you have basically no idea what is inside them and/or how rarity impacts that. ;)

Werlix
07-31-2014, 01:07 PM
The chests are free - you get them for free when you open a pack. I didn't say rolling them was free.

It's a Gold Sink. Also, you get the chance of free prizes per spin. Finally, and most importantly, you don't have to spin them! It's a gamble, even more so right now when you have basically no idea what is inside them and/or how rarity impacts that. ;)

Yep :) Which is why I stopped rolling them and bought an Angel of Dawn for 200,000g instead :)

Yoss
07-31-2014, 01:15 PM
It's a Gold Sink. Also, you get the chance of free prizes per spin. Finally, and most importantly, you don't have to spin them! It's a gamble, even more so right now when you have basically no idea what is inside them and/or how rarity impacts that. ;)

If the high end has a significantly lower payout per gp spent, then it's a pretty terrible gold sink.

hex_colin
07-31-2014, 01:21 PM
If the high end has a significantly lower payout per gp spent, then it's a pretty terrible gold sink.

Whether or not that's actually the case... Why? It's a gold sink, by design it's a way to basically waste currency that you have no other use for. So, any benefit, no matter how small, is better than nothing. And, it's gambling! Higher risk (gold spent to try to upgrade a chest) = potential for higher reward, not a guarantee.

ossuary
07-31-2014, 01:23 PM
If the high end has a significantly lower payout per gp spent, then it's a pretty terrible gold sink.

Exactly. If that's how it works, it doesn't actually encourage people to use up large amounts of gold. The highest level chests should BAR NONE have the absolute best payout, to entice you to blow all your gold trying to upgrade. I 100% guarantee you CZE will consume more gold that way than if primal chests just have 3-5 of the exact same items as common chests have. That is completely stupid and bad design if it's true.

Bells
07-31-2014, 01:24 PM
The chests are free - you get them for free when you open a pack. I didn't say rolling them was free.

It's a Gold Sink. Also, you get the chance of free prizes per spin. Finally, and most importantly, you don't have to spin them! It's a gamble, even more so right now when you have basically no idea what is inside them and/or how rarity impacts that. ;)

Yeah, i get it that its a gold sink. And i get it why that is there... but there is a balance needed.

it's just like buying Packs at the shop. They are WAY cheaper in the AH. There is just no need for it at all... but the option is there. Fine.

But if you put your gold heavily into a chest and get something that you can only sell for a small fraction of that... then most people will not open chests. They will just sell chests super cheap (hey... they are free) to buy packs or just get the items they want. Because the return of the investment is not good enough.

Sure, there are prizes and tons of cool things... but if it's all just bells and whistles then players will navigate around it in a heartbeat. It is just a bad call to design it like this... players will ditch chests for gamblers and just get the items they want on the AH.

Surely this would happen to some degree regardless... but what im seeing right now is a tendency of this getting WAY out of proportion... which is not really great for the economy environment of the game. You want players to want to open chests, not see them as tokens to ditch because ''who can bother with gambling whe ni can just get what i want to go back to actually playing the game?'' y'know?


What i had in mind was simple...

Common chests and Uncommon chests = as they are
Rare Chests = Only give stuff of uncommon grade and up
Legendary chest = Only gives stuff rare and up
Primal chest = Has exclusive table of contents and only gives stuff rare and up

So, now, i can even buy spare chests in the AH and just spin them up a few grades and would feel much more rewarded because even if i get a junk rare or a duplicate, i have a safe zone in my investment of ''at least i'll stay within this grade of items'' .

The gambling of chests as it stands right now, it is simply not worth it. Surely a golden sink is necessary in a game like this... but it's existence does not mean players will use it in droves. If it's not a good system, players will just set it aside for a more secure investment like trading and the AH.

What i'm saying is that a golden sink needs to be good to be useful, and with chests right now, it's really not...


by design it's a way to basically waste currency that you have no other use for.

Yeah... but that is bad Design. Because the first primary goal would be for the player to NOT get stuck with mountains of cash and nothing to do... Golden Sinks are a fix to a problem. Not a design bullet point.

Yoss
07-31-2014, 01:26 PM
Whether or not that's actually the case... Why? It's a gold sink, by design it's a way to basically waste currency that you have no other use for. So, any benefit, no matter how small, is better than nothing. And, it's gambling! Higher risk (gold spent to try to upgrade a chest) = potential for higher reward, not a guarantee.

I suppose that assuming a roughly equal EV per gp across all gold sinks isn't necessary. Still, if common rolls are the highest EV/gp then that's the only thing that some people will roll, and when they're all consumed, gold values will drop down to the next EV/gp tier. If the design attempted to keep EV/gp equal across all gold sinks, then it seems like it would be better at stabilizing gold values.

hex_colin
07-31-2014, 01:32 PM
The gambling of chests as it stands right now, it is simply not worth it.

You can't possibly say that - no one has any data to support such a statement. You only thing you can say for sure is that it might be prudent to just stockpile gold and unspun chests until you know what the rewards are. But, where's the fun in that? ;)

I'm more than sure that the HEX team will make the chests and spinning them to upgrade them worth our while. But, we're not entitled to anything specific.

jonsnow2000
07-31-2014, 01:37 PM
I would be very disappointed if higher chest rarity doesn't get better loot quality. I bet lots of players would feel the same. And since CZE knows that (or should, anyway), I'm confident they will put something in those Rare and better chests that will make opening them worthwhile. My hope is for exclusive cards (PvE or AA PvP) that you can only get from Rare or higher, and then Primals would give you the best chance at that loot.

LNQ
07-31-2014, 01:40 PM
All I'm saying is that it should be FUN to get a chest upgrade to legendary / primal because those chests should be somehow much much more desirable than C, UC and Rare. Likewise, Rare chests should somehow reflect that there's only a 15% chance of getting that tier or higher when buying a pack.

It's also important to understand that the chests aren't free. They're part of opening a pack, the "16th card". They're no more free or bonus than any of the cards in a pack. Compared to other TCGs that don't have chests, they are additions, but they belong in Hex just as well as the PvP cards do. You need to realize that Hex is its own game that has its own content, and the chests are just as much part of that content as everything else.

LNQ
07-31-2014, 01:43 PM
Higher tier chests (except Primal) shouldn't guarantee to give anything special, but they should have considerably better loot tables.

Yoss
07-31-2014, 01:46 PM
It's also important to understand that the chests aren't free. They're part of opening a pack, the "16th card". They're no more free or bonus than any of the cards in a pack. Compared to other TCGs that don't have chests, they are additions, but they belong in Hex just as well as the PvP cards do. You need to realize that Hex is its own game that has its own content, and the chests are just as much part of that content as everything else.

I was biting my tongue since I've said this in the past. Thank you for saying it (again).

AdamAoE2
07-31-2014, 01:59 PM
I absolutely hope that the higher tiered chests have better treasure. It would be cool if each chest had its own little table of something to draw from. Each chest needs to be exciting and upgrading your chests needs to be just as good as rolling a different reward from the chests. If it was under my control, the tables would look something like this:

Common Chests (1 or 2 of Following):
- Common Equipment
- 200-1000 Gold
- Common PvE Card
- Common PvP Card
- Common Exclusive Chest AA Card - (Burn)
- Common Exclusive Chest Mercenary
- Common Crafting Ingredient

***

Uncommon Chest (1 or 2 of):
- Common Equipment
- Uncommon Equipment
- 500-2000 Gold
- Uncommon PvE Card
- Uncommon PvP Card (Random)
- Uncommon Chest Exclusive AA Card - (Solitary Exile)
- Uncommon Exclusive Chest Mercenary
- Uncommon Crafting Ingredient
- Booster Pack

***

Rare Chest (1 - 3 of):
- Common Equipment
- Uncommon Equipment
- Rare Equipment
- 1000 to 4500 Gold
- Rare PvE Card
- Rare PvP Card (Random)
- Rare Chest Exclusive AA Card - (Crash of Beasts)
- Rare Exclusive Chest Mercenary
- Rare Crafting Ingredient
- Booster Pack
- Free Constructed Queue Ticket

***

Legendary Chest (2 - 4 of)
- Uncommon Equipment
- Rare Equipment
- Legendary Equipment
- 4000 to 8500 Gold
- Legendary PvE Card
- Legendary PvP Card (Random)
- Legendary Chest Exclusive AA Card - (Zombie Plague)
- Legendary Exclusive Chest Mercenary
- Legendary Crafting Ingredient
- Booster Pack
- Free Constructed Queue Ticket
- Free Draft Queue Ticket

***
Primal Chest (3 - 5 of)
- Rare Equipment
- Legendary Equipment
- 9000 to 25500 Gold
- Legendary PvE Card
- Legendary PvP Card (Random)
- Primal Chest Exclusive AA Card - (Angel of Dawn)
- Primal Exclusive Chest Mercenary
- Legendary Crafting Ingredient (2-4)
- Booster Pack
- Free Constructed Queue Ticket
- Free Draft Queue Ticket
- Free 128 Event Ticket

LNQ
07-31-2014, 02:06 PM
What I'm hoping for the chests contents, if ossuary's content summary is correct:

Common chest: one throwaway item. These chests could be interesting only for Wheels of Fate spins, no spin common chests to be considered as interesting as a common PvP card.

Uncommon chest: mid-tier item, with a small chance of a higher tier item. The contents rarely worth too much, but every now and then you could get something good. These are exciting mostly because of the chance to get a double upgrade to legendary with WoF.

Rare chest: two mid-tier items, with a considerably higher chance of tier upgrades for each item. A low end rare chest being the equivalent of 2x uncommons.

Legendary chest: same contents of rare + one guaranteed high tier item with a chance of top tier items

Primal chest: two guaranteed high tier items plus one top tier item

cabalpapa
07-31-2014, 02:38 PM
I might have missed a comment in this thread, but wasn't it mentioned at some point that there would be items to CRAFT INTO various equipment? I thought that was a primary focal point of the chests, to provide the crafting materials (as advertised in kickstarter packages) to craft equipment. I expect these crafting materials to have different rarities, as well, and thus a whole gambit of possibilities exist for the chest "loot tables".

thegreybetween
07-31-2014, 03:11 PM
There will be a crafting system, but based on the latest info, all we know is:

- Cards will be able to be "de-constructed" or broken down in to crafting materials. This should give us all something to do with our piles of extra common cards. Not much is known about which cards will turn into which materials, etc. But destroying cards for crafting materials should be one of the major ways to obtain them.

- Additionally, crafting materials should be available as PvE loot drops and can spawn in chests. I have no verification on this, nor do I know if it would still be valid if I did...but I recall having read it somewhere official in the past.

- Crafting, as of the last I heard about it, will involve creating actual cards (including cards that cannot be obtained in other ways) for use in PvE. I don't know if you can craft equipment, but it seems reasonable that you could. Honestly, crafting is one of the bigger unknown systems coming down the pipe.

- The "primary purpose" of chests is still vague. You'll get something, and you can sink some gold into the Wheel of Fate for a chance at (allegedly) something better. But chests could reasonably contain anything from crafting materials to booster packs, PvE equipment to Mercenaries. Too little is known about the contents to do much more than speculate at this point. Hence this thread.

Yoss
07-31-2014, 03:12 PM
Speculation helps pass the time.

jonsnow2000
07-31-2014, 03:13 PM
I don't think there was ever a clarification as to what we can expect to find in chests. My assumption is that it could be pretty much anything - cards, mercs, pve equip, crafting materials. My hope is that CZE uses all this development time to just put an insane amount of different stuff into those chests - so much that you can open loads of them and still occasionally get something new that you've never seen before.

Yoss
07-31-2014, 03:16 PM
Cory has talked off-the-cuff about the contents more than once, but always in vague terms. Booster packs are definitely one of the possible drops (presumably quite rare), and I think pretty much every basic item type was mentioned as being possible.

Vorpal
07-31-2014, 03:22 PM
Ok, it will take me, at the very least, 30,000 gold to upgrade my legendary chest.

If making that upgrade simply gives me one more item, I could also obtain that exact same functionality by buying a common chest on the AH and opening/rolling that instead.

In fact, I could buy a whole pack on the AH for about 20,000 gold and then have a chance of getting a higher rarity chest to boot, and even if it just a common, spin it a whole bunch of times with the left over gold, and come out way, way, way, way ahead compared to spending that gold on rolling my legendary chest.

So I don't see people using gold for that unless there are literally no packs or common chests at 30k gold or below.

dogmod
07-31-2014, 03:45 PM
Ok, it will take me, at the very least, 30,000 gold to upgrade my legendary chest.

If making that upgrade simply gives me one more item, I could also obtain that exact same functionality by buying a common chest on the AH and opening/rolling that instead.

In fact, I could buy a whole pack on the AH for about 20,000 gold and then have a chance of getting a higher rarity chest to boot, and even if it just a common, spin it a whole bunch of times with the left over gold, and come out way, way, way, way ahead compared to spending that gold on rolling my legendary chest.

So I don't see people using gold for that unless there are literally no packs or common chests at 30k gold or below.

Assuming that once gold is being inject into the economy by PvE that packs will still cost 20k gold. I think the cost to roll on chests was a big hint to us as to what they expect the gold to plat ratio to be in the long run and I think that hint went past a lot of people judging by the gold prices on the AH.

sukebe
07-31-2014, 04:15 PM
I don't think there was ever a clarification as to what we can expect to find in chests. My assumption is that it could be pretty much anything - cards, mercs, pve equip, crafting materials. My hope is that CZE uses all this development time to just put an insane amount of different stuff into those chests - so much that you can open loads of them and still occasionally get something new that you've never seen before.

This may be outdated but it does have a non-complete list of things we can expect:

http://hextcg.com/exclusives-treasure-and-mercenaries/

Lawlschool
07-31-2014, 04:48 PM
Speculation helps pass the time.

Truer words have never been spoken.

pinkshirtbadman
07-31-2014, 04:51 PM
The chests are free - you get them for free when you open a pack. I didn't say rolling them was free.

It's a Gold Sink. Also, you get the chance of free prizes per spin. Finally, and most importantly, you don't have to spin them! It's a gamble, even more so right now when you have basically no idea what is inside them and/or how rarity impacts that. ;)


Maybe I'm approaching this from the wrong angle, but I absolutely think that first sentence is wrong. The chests aren't "free" they're part of the purchase, every pack has one and we know that and are told that before the game ever even launched it's part of the purchase price. "Free" would be something that wasn't always there or something we didn't expect.

You don't pay 200p "just" for the cards and get the other stuff as a handout. the 200p buys 15 cards, and a chest (whatever it's contents may be). The rarity and contents of the chests are likely of course to be random meaning some are better than others, but that's no different than the contents of the card package anyway, some contain Vampire King and some contain Plan C in the rare slot.


If higher rarity chests didn't give better loot there'd be no real incentive to roll them once they get to say rare level and just open them instead with no rolls, then spend that gold elsewhere. This means as a gold sink it would fail because no one would be using it, they'd spend that gold on the AH, removing only 5% instead of 100

thegreybetween
07-31-2014, 04:53 PM
Mmmmm. Plan C.

Lawlschool
07-31-2014, 05:08 PM
Maybe I'm approaching this from the wrong angle, but I absolutely think that first sentence is wrong. The chests aren't "free" they're part of the purchase, every pack has one and we know that and are told that before the game ever even launched it's part of the purchase price. "Free" would be something that wasn't always there or something we didn't expect.

So while this is technically correct, the problem is, how do you value the Chest? You can find out the average value of a pack of 15 cards fairly easily (1x avg Rare + 3x avg uncommon +11x avg common), but figuring out the value of the "16th card" is going to be a lot trickier. You have to calculate the sum of the average value of each chest multiplied by the percent chance to get it. And in turn, the average value of each chest is the sum of the average value of each possible "prize" multiplied by the percent chance to get it. Quite a pain in the ass to do without a way to easily aggregate those prices (could change though). Even then, given that the majority of the "prizes" in the chest will be worth very little due to how common they will be, it's likely the average value of a chest will be essentially negligible.

TL;DR Yes packs have a "value," but why care?

N3rd4Christ
07-31-2014, 05:10 PM
Every chest contains a Baby Yeti. It's been confirmed... I'm sure no one will be disappointed now that you know the truth!

#nottrolling

jonsnow2000
07-31-2014, 05:25 PM
Every chest contains a Baby Yeti. It's been confirmed... I'm sure no one will be disappointed now that you know the truth!

#nottrolling

Oh No! And I was buying all those Baby Yetis for 99P and higher in the hopes of dominating the Baby Yeti market (speculating on awesome synergies in Set 2). Now they will be worthless :(

N3rd4Christ
07-31-2014, 05:29 PM
Oh No! And I was buying all those Baby Yetis for 99P and higher in the hopes of dominating the Baby Yeti market (speculating on awesome synergies in Set 2). Now they will be worthless :(

Well the card is so overpowered that most people have started hoarding them. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets nerf bat treatment before release.

Aradon
07-31-2014, 05:30 PM
I think the crux of the problem, as some have mentioned, is that if each rarity just gives one more item than the previous rarity, then rolling on a common chest to upgrade has the same benefit as rolling a legendary chest to upgrade (exactly one more item), with drastically higher costs. It'd make way more sense to sell a rare chest for 3 common chests, and roll those. I just can't see higher-rarity chests containing purely more items, they'd have to be better quality.

Hatts
07-31-2014, 05:40 PM
Well the card is so overpowered that most people have started hoarding them. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets nerf bat treatment before release.

Baby Yeti is the new fire snake?

Lawlschool
07-31-2014, 06:16 PM
I think the crux of the problem, as some have mentioned, is that if each rarity just gives one more item than the previous rarity, then rolling on a common chest to upgrade has the same benefit as rolling a legendary chest to upgrade (exactly one more item), with drastically higher costs. It'd make way more sense to sell a rare chest for 3 common chests, and roll those. I just can't see higher-rarity chests containing purely more items, they'd have to be better quality.

Exactly, but this is only really a problem if the main reason to roll on a chest is to upgrade it. Rolls themselves would also need to have loot tables somewhat proportional to their cost as well in order to incentivize rolling higher chests. This seems to potentially be a problem right now, as has been discussed previously. Keep in mind, of course, that rolling chests is like spinning virtual slots with virtual money, which means more often than not you're probably going to lose value. The average value of most of the rolled prizes are likely going to be worth far less than the cost to get them, just like in slots.

Still, it does make sense for higher chest rolls to have better "payouts" even if the expected value is the same across all rolls (or alternately, same payouts, but better odds). If chest rolls have the exact same payouts with the exact same odds, it'll never make sense to roll higher chests when you could use that gold to roll a bunch of commons (except of course if you run out of commons and it's more expensive to buy one and roll than it is to roll a higher tier). This could potentially be remedied if, once again, we have better loot tables for higher chest tiers as otherwise we run in to what Aradon points out.

So basically either higher rolls give slightly better odds / prizes, or higher chests give slightly better odds / prizes, else there doesn't seem to be much reason to roll on chests that aren't common.

Side note, this could potentially be a way for Hex to control inflation by incentivizing or disincentivizing rolling higher chests. If there's too much gold in the economy, make higher rolls give better stuff/odds to increase the amount of gold removed, if there's too little, decrease the payouts for higher rolls to limit the amount of gold being removed.

Keep in mind, of course, that all of this is mostly about the incentives to roll chests. It's quite likely that you're better off just opening your chests instead of rolling them, as rolling (like slots) will likely have a negative expected value.

Skirovik
07-31-2014, 06:38 PM
I don't have the chest drop rarity at hand, but IIRC it's something like:

65% to get a common chest
30% to get an uncommon chest
12.5% to get a rare chest
2.5% to get a legendary chest
0% to get a primal, only obtainable through spins


What we know about chests for now:

Drop rates are roughly:
65% common
30% uncommon
12% rare
3% legendary

So legendary chance is very slightly higher than you thought, otherwise pretty much correct.


Not to be nit-picky, but you realise this adds up to 110%? Is this intentional?

ossuary
07-31-2014, 06:50 PM
Not to be nit-picky, but you realise this adds up to 110%? Is this intentional?

D'oh. :)

*goes to dig for which number is a typo*

Edit: http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=35164

According to the community, the rate is approximately 60% common, 27.5% uncommon, 10% rare, and 2.5% legendary, but according to Colin, those numbers are not quite correct.

My guess would be 60, 25, 12, 3. :p

N3rd4Christ
07-31-2014, 07:37 PM
Baby Yeti is the new fire snake?


No, nothing is as OP as fire snake. Head to head FS still Alpha predator.

LNQ
07-31-2014, 10:29 PM
That's awesome, took 5 pages for anyone to notice the odds didn't add up. :D

ossuary
08-01-2014, 12:20 AM
That's awesome, took 5 pages for anyone to notice the odds didn't add up. :D

In before Gwaer tells you to change how many posts are displayed per page.

Bells
08-01-2014, 04:55 AM
It is worth mentioning that the excessive gambling will push away the people who have the most resources to invest in chests.

It's a gamble which chest you get
It's a gamble a gamble the result of your rolls
It's a gamble what you finally get out of your chest.

So i need to gamble and win against high odds 3 times in a roll to get something that might be good (because we are just talking about being in the top tier table of contents here).

I mean, i get lucky once and get a Rare chest. I then spin it and get lucky again and Upgrade it to legendary, then i open it and get a common item...... from that point forward, i'm not opening chests anymore. And if their value is good on the AH, then i'll just sell my high tier chests and using the plat to get more packs or the gold to just get the stuff i want on the market.

Overall, it's not worth it. Not like this.

hammer
08-01-2014, 05:25 AM
I have over 200 legendary chests from my addiction of buying and cracking primal packs :p
Hope them chests got me some nice lootz

Hexgo
08-01-2014, 05:48 AM
Am I the only one who thinks we should type "100,00p" instead of "10,000p"?

No, you are not. the platin numbers are confusing. 1.00 should be 100 platin I agree.
Also gold should be 100.000 rather than 100000. I'm not very fond of counting 0, esp. with that kind of text size.

ossuary
08-01-2014, 06:32 AM
It is worth mentioning that the excessive gambling will push away the people who have the most resources to invest in chests.

It's a gamble which chest you get
It's a gamble a gamble the result of your rolls
It's a gamble what you finally get out of your chest.

So i need to gamble and win against high odds 3 times in a roll to get something that might be good (because we are just talking about being in the top tier table of contents here).

I mean, i get lucky once and get a Rare chest. I then spin it and get lucky again and Upgrade it to legendary, then i open it and get a common item...... from that point forward, i'm not opening chests anymore. And if their value is good on the AH, then i'll just sell my high tier chests and using the plat to get more packs or the gold to just get the stuff i want on the market.

Overall, it's not worth it. Not like this.

Yeah, this is the major problem I have with what Colin is saying about this system. If this really is the way it works, that is terrible.

A higher tier chest should be unquestionably better than 2-3x of the next lower tier chests (since they cost roughly 2.5 - 3.5x more to spin each level as you go up, even assuming you upgrade in one go). The higher level chests need to be better both by the number of items you get, and more importantly, by the minimum level quality of those items.

Opening a primal chest and getting 3 common items is a TERRIBLE outcome, and it will absolutely turn a statistically relevant number of people off ever using the wheels to upgrade anything, which defeats the intended purpose of the Wheels of being a gold sink.

Vorpal
08-01-2014, 07:09 AM
Havent we determined that the wof loot tables gor chests are the same across all chest rarities? Thats been my experience. In that case, the only reason to roll the higher rarity chests IS to upgrade them. Which is completely pointless if opening a primal is the same as opening a legendary and an uncommon.

YourOpponent
08-01-2014, 07:17 AM
If the gold sink from WoF turns out to be pretty bad due to what is in the chests...there are more creative solutions that wouldn't be game breaking. For example using your gold to buy "raffle tickets" in game. With each day their being a raffle for an alternate art card (or a sleeve) that can only be earned that way or from trading for it...or getting it on the auction house of course. Most likely with it being more than 1 card or sleeve per day...and possibly the number increasing with the number of active players.

Bells
08-01-2014, 08:20 AM
If the gold sink from WoF turns out to be pretty bad due to what is in the chests...there are more creative solutions that wouldn't be game breaking. For example using your gold to buy "raffle tickets" in game. With each day their being a raffle for an alternate art card (or a sleeve) that can only be earned that way or from trading for it...or getting it on the auction house of course. Most likely with it being more than 1 card or sleeve per day...and possibly the number increasing with the number of active players.

You can easily do that with just giving people ''login bonus'' Warframe does that and it works just fine. Each day you login the game spins a roulette and gives you a little something. An consumable, some gold, some xp... and if you login every day it piles on and the next login bonus has a higher chance of being better and so on and so forth. It's a mobile game tactic, but for online games, it actually kinda works...

I'm already worried that there will simply not be enough stuff to run after and that prices will be stupid to get anything else (specially gold prices...) anyway...

Vorpal
08-01-2014, 08:24 AM
If the gold sink from WoF turns out to be pretty bad due to what is in the chests...there are more creative solutions that wouldn't be game breaking. For example using your gold to buy "raffle tickets" in game. With each day their being a raffle for an alternate art card (or a sleeve) that can only be earned that way or from trading for it...or getting it on the auction house of course. Most likely with it being more than 1 card or sleeve per day...and possibly the number increasing with the number of active players.

Wouldnt it be easier to just make the higher rarity chests more desirable?

Yoss
08-01-2014, 10:26 AM
You can easily do that with just giving people ''login bonus'' Warframe does that and it works just fine. Each day you login the game spins a roulette and gives you a little something. An consumable, some gold, some xp... and if you login every day it piles on and the next login bonus has a higher chance of being better and so on and so forth. It's a mobile game tactic, but for online games, it actually kinda works...

I'm already worried that there will simply not be enough stuff to run after and that prices will be stupid to get anything else (specially gold prices...) anyway...

YourOpponent was suggesting a gold sink. You're suggesting an item faucet. Two very different ideas.

Svenn
08-01-2014, 11:05 AM
You can easily do that with just giving people ''login bonus'' Warframe does that and it works just fine. Each day you login the game spins a roulette and gives you a little something. An consumable, some gold, some xp... and if you login every day it piles on and the next login bonus has a higher chance of being better and so on and so forth. It's a mobile game tactic, but for online games, it actually kinda works...

I'm already worried that there will simply not be enough stuff to run after and that prices will be stupid to get anything else (specially gold prices...) anyway...
Oh god no. These things are the worst.

Yoss
08-01-2014, 11:30 AM
Yeah, I'm really hoping Dailies are not a thing. We discussed this at length last year. The only daily thing so far is Lotus Gardens, and it was suggested that they should still bloom when you don't log in to harvest so long as you do log in at least once a week or so.

Bells
08-01-2014, 12:30 PM
I don't oppose to daily rewarding of people of playing the game often... it can be made innofensive. There are way worst things like for instance Crafting timers.

Oh you wanna make this new equipment? Sure... sacrifice a few cards, a assload of gold. There... oh you want it now? No no no... come back in 48hrs or pay me 5 bucks for it. Why? Oh no reason...

Now THAT would absolutely suck.

But a ''Hey you logged in 5 days in a row! Thanks, here is 5000 gold. Have fun'' Seems harmless enough. Plus, incentive to make use of the AH.

YourOpponent
08-01-2014, 01:00 PM
I don't oppose to daily rewarding of people of playing the game often... it can be made innofensive. There are way worst things like for instance Crafting timers.

Oh you wanna make this new equipment? Sure... sacrifice a few cards, a assload of gold. There... oh you want it now? No no no... come back in 48hrs or pay me 5 bucks for it. Why? Oh no reason...


Yeah. Games like that drive me crazy. Games that have it as a "cool down" so that you get whatever you were wanting and then have to wait so long before you can craft something new though are slightly better, but still not as fun as some alternatives could be.

Yoss
08-01-2014, 03:36 PM
The concept of "it takes time to craft something" seems reasonable to me. As long as they don't go so far as to force you to stop playing during that time I don't see the problem. You give some materials to your craftsmen at the keep and go back to adventuring. When you get back a few days/hours/weeks later, they've finished your job.

Actually seems like a cool concept to me.

Lawlschool
08-01-2014, 04:28 PM
Yeah, I'm really hoping Dailies are not a thing. We discussed this at length last year. The only daily thing so far is Lotus Gardens, and it was suggested that they should still bloom when you don't log in to harvest so long as you do log in at least once a week or so.

Pretty sure Cory is adamantly against dailies. Can't remember what interview it was (maybe a GenCon one), but I do recall Cory talking about how frustrating dailies were, since it essentially ends up creating an obligation to log in each day, which is just not fun.

Yoss
08-01-2014, 04:33 PM
obligation to log in each day, which is just not fun.
Exactly. The game becomes a job.


The time has come to make a choice, Mr. Anderson. Either you choose to [log into Hex] on time from this day forth, or you choose to find yourself another [game].

mach
08-01-2014, 06:35 PM
Pretty sure Cory is adamantly against dailies. Can't remember what interview it was (maybe a GenCon one), but I do recall Cory talking about how frustrating dailies were, since it essentially ends up creating an obligation to log in each day, which is just not fun.

Then do it on a weekly basis? We already know they're okay with making an obligation to log in once a week (expiring draft tickets).

ossuary
08-01-2014, 07:32 PM
Cory said something at one point about a phantom wheel that you would get one spin on every day you logged in, and you could try for certain prizes or work on filling in a specific prize's requirements to attempt to win that item. It was very much a "we're thinking about this" thing, rather than a "it's happening" kind of deal. This was separate from the wheels of fate.

I'd be interested to know if that idea has evolved any and if it continues to be something he's working away on in his head. :)

Yoss
08-01-2014, 08:47 PM
I am OK with "weeklies". Dailies not so much. And yes, I remember that wheel spin idea he tossed around a while back. Not a fan, unless it becomes weekly instead of daily.

Deathfog
08-02-2014, 12:51 AM
Hex already has a daily, the vaunted KS Lotus Garden. Encouraging people to log in more often/every day has been found to be good for the health/profit of games.

LNQ
08-02-2014, 12:59 AM
Good for the profit, bad for the fun factor. Weekly is ok, daily is too much.

Vorpal
08-02-2014, 08:14 AM
Well, we dont actually have daily lotuses yet...who knowsn they could be changed to workon a weekly basis.

Xenavire
08-02-2014, 08:17 AM
Well, we dont actually have daily lotuses yet...who knowsn they could be changed to workon a weekly basis.

They were advertised as daily - the only way people would accept weekly is if they somehow weren't consumed on use. Basically, the shitstorm would be unmatched to anything we have seen before. Lotus will not be changing, and thats a good thing.

The lotus effect could potentially be balanced a bit, but that is also unlikely unless theres a mechanical reason.

Vorpal
08-02-2014, 08:20 AM
Id much rather log on once a week and generate 7 lotuses from my garden than log in once a day and generate 1

Xenavire
08-02-2014, 08:34 AM
Id much rather log on once a week and generate 7 lotuses from my garden than log in once a day and generate 1

They would not give you 7x at once, it defeats the whole purpose of it. Just like they don't let people stack draft tickets from free draft tiers.

Gorgol
08-02-2014, 08:45 AM
Well, we dont actually have daily lotuses yet...who knowsn they could be changed to workon a weekly basis.
That would be the biggest load of bull they've ever pulled, by a LARGE margin.

Lawlschool
08-02-2014, 08:51 AM
They would not give you 7x at once, it defeats the whole purpose of it. Just like they don't let people stack draft tickets from free draft tiers.

I thought they did let the weekly drafts stack now?

But yeah, I agree that Lotus Garden should be the only "daily" type activity.

Xenavire
08-02-2014, 08:55 AM
I thought they did let the weekly drafts stack now?

But yeah, I agree that Lotus Garden should be the only "daily" type activity.

I mean stacking by holding them, standard stacking works fine. But they don't let you hold a ticket for more than a week, which is what I was trying to say.

Vorpal
08-02-2014, 12:49 PM
If youve already accepted one kind of daily log in reward, there is no reason not to accept others.

Xenavire
08-02-2014, 12:51 PM
If youve already accepted one kind of daily log in reward, there is no reason not to accept others.

It depends on what those rewards are, what the specific criteria are, etc. There are some horrible ways to do daily rewards, and some good ways.

I doubt HexEnt will make a large mistake in that area though.

mach
08-02-2014, 01:29 PM
The lotus effect could potentially be balanced a bit, but that is also unlikely unless theres a mechanical reason.

A mechanical reason, such as them being massively overpowered?

Degenerate cards are great when you're trying to sell a kickstarter, but a nightmare when you're trying to balance challenging content. It's probably impossible to make content which is challenging but doable for both those with and without Lotuses.

Xenavire
08-02-2014, 02:01 PM
A mechanical reason, such as them being massively overpowered?

Degenerate cards are great when you're trying to sell a kickstarter, but a nightmare when you're trying to balance challenging content. It's probably impossible to make content which is challenging but doable for both those with and without Lotuses.

Yes, that is exactly what I was alluding to. But we don't know how the overall balance is in PvE - it could be completely balanced. But the daily login reward part? Probably not going to change, even if Lotus gets nerfed.

I do think that Lotus is a lot weaker because you can't sub cards in a dungeon, and it sounds like most of them include 6-10 encounters (meaning any lotus popped will weaken your deck later.) I see them shining in raids, but I doubt they will guarantee victories.

Vorpal
08-02-2014, 02:13 PM
A mechanical reason, such as them being massively overpowered?

Degenerate cards are great when you're trying to sell a kickstarter, but a nightmare when you're trying to balance challenging content. It's probably impossible to make content which is challenging but doable for both those with and without Lotuses.

Well, lotuses are consumable, so it's probably not that big a deal. It's not like people can have 4 lotuses in their deck for every encounter in a dungeon.

YourOpponent
08-02-2014, 04:28 PM
They would not give you 7x at once, it defeats the whole purpose of it. Just like they don't let people stack draft tickets from free draft tiers.

Oh come on! I even came up with an idea for it to be an ADVENTURE to get your weekly 7 lotuses! While wondering around (as soon as you log in) you come across a big fancy garden of spectral lotuses. After frolicking in the garden for awhile you decide to go around picking a few of them. Before you know it a huge ogre wielding a club comes by and yells, "Ashes ashes they all fall down!" and clubs you upside the head knocking you unconscious. When you finally wake up you have no idea how you got to that garden and a strong feeling that you don't want to go trying to find it again...at least for another week anyway...but at least you have 7 spectral lotuses.

Xenavire
08-02-2014, 05:37 PM
As much as an adventure would be cool the first... 3, maybe 4 times, it would get tedious. Those kind of daily/weekly quests in WoW were a huge factor in driving me away.

I think the daily login is the best - ideally you want to be playing a little every day anyway (or Hex isn't doing its job at making you hopelessly addicted!) I mean, when we have PvE and all the other massive content expansions, it will be hard to stay away.

Vorpal
08-02-2014, 05:56 PM
It would be hard to claim that logging in once a day to get an exceptionally powerful card was ok, but logging in once a day to get 100g or whatever was just beyond the pale.

Baldo
08-02-2014, 06:08 PM
beyond the pale.

Thanks, had to look that one up, I'm not surprised to see you throwing around the obscure idiom given your forum name. Snicker-snack.

Will everyone have access to spectral lotuses via the auction house?

elfstone
08-02-2014, 06:12 PM
well anyone who sells them yes. They can be sold on the AH, I wouldnt be surprised if its the only reaosn some people bought multiple high tiers was for the ability to sell them on the AH