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Phoenixfire
01-21-2015, 12:06 PM
I have been farming for PRIMALS from the store buying large amounts of packs for the 2% chance of a primal, selling the packs and primals off and repeating....

Started with 3,000 plat, now im at over 10,000 i think i need to chill but i can feel im on a super high right now!

EDIT: I just bought 60x packs from store and it gave me 4x primals, i sold them and bought another 60 and it gave me 4x primals, i sold those and bought 60 more and it gave me 5x primals

Is this normal???

EDIT: Bought another 60x 0 primals, so not bugs i guess

LNQ
01-21-2015, 12:12 PM
Why post something like this on the forum? You'll ruin the business. You've made $70, great! But why come gloating here while the business is good?

Phoenixfire
01-21-2015, 12:13 PM
http://i.imgur.com/pi1upMU.png

Antfunk
01-21-2015, 12:18 PM
Great idea. Someone told me about this a while ago. I do intend to do with future sets :)!

Saeijou
01-21-2015, 12:27 PM
Why post something like this on the forum? You'll ruin the business. You've made $70, great! But why come gloating here while the business is good?

thats actually a good question :D

Phoenixfire
01-21-2015, 12:29 PM
http://i.imgur.com/Eu4bknq.png

funktion
01-21-2015, 12:39 PM
roughly 189 set 2 packs generated so far, zero primals

Phoenixfire
01-21-2015, 12:43 PM
I bought 180x packs and it gave me 13x primals,., since i bought 60x at a time

im stopping cause people are telling me the store maybe bugged, i really dont wana get into any trouble

Incindium
01-21-2015, 12:46 PM
I've gotten 5 Primals from 105 store purchased packs and 0 Primals from 98 Draft reward generated packs with Set 2.

Saeijou
01-21-2015, 12:47 PM
I bought 180x packs and it gave me 13x primals,., since i bought 60x at a time

im stopping cause people are telling me the store maybe bugged, i really dont wana get into any trouble

in that case you maybe shouldnt post it... maybe are very likely to abuse such things :/

Scammanator
01-21-2015, 12:49 PM
in that case you maybe shouldnt post it... maybe are very likely to abuse such things :/

Unless there's actually no bug, and pheonixfire just encouraged a bunch of people to go spend thousands of plat on the store. Then HexEnt wouldn't be mad at all. ;)

Saeijou
01-21-2015, 12:51 PM
Unless there's actually no bug, and pheonixfire just encouraged a bunch of people to go spend thousands of plat on the store. Then HexEnt wouldn't be mad at all. ;)

mh... is he send? damn... if you change some letters in his name, "illuminati" appears... AAAAAAAHHHHH!!!! *runsawayscreaming*

jonsnow2000
01-21-2015, 01:01 PM
There is a "business" around this? :P Like Funktion says, if you get unlucky and do NOT receive Primals at the expected rate of 1/50 you waste alot of Plat that you could use for other purposes. Original poster got pretty lucky, that's all.

Also, if there was a bug with Primal Generation on the store, you would A) not get into trouble with HexEnt and B) the market for Primals would crash and no one would make any profit.

Tazelbain
01-21-2015, 01:03 PM
Just reminds me how much I hate the primal system.

Raith
01-21-2015, 01:09 PM
The margin is definitely there to make money at the expected 2% primal rate. However, you then have to spend all the time listing the packs. It does include a gambling aspect as well since the primal packs are random.

I decided to just play instead. :)

LNQ
01-21-2015, 01:44 PM
You don't make that much plat per pack bought at current prices anymore, around 9 plat per standard booster pack sold. And you need a big bankroll because of the bad streaks. PhoenixFire starting with 3000 plat was very lucky to get a good streak early on. 3000 is only enough for 15 packs, which on average doesn't yield you a single primal. There's no bug, he just hit a VERY good streak.

To make 7000 plat at current prices means you have to sell about 750 packs. Selling 750 packs in the AH at the current price of 180 plat is not easy nor fast. If you get 13 primals out of 180 pack bought on the other hand, you simply won the plat easily by getting super lucky.

So yeah, the points made in above posts are valid. There is business to be made, but it has its risks, requires a big bankroll and is tedious work with the current AH.

Saeijou
01-21-2015, 01:52 PM
Just reminds me how much I hate the primal system.

you hate RNG! ^^

Gwaer
01-21-2015, 01:55 PM
I have bought over 500 packs and got no primals from it. This makes me very sad.

Kilo24
01-21-2015, 01:56 PM
...So yeah, the points made in above posts are valid. There is business to be made, but it has its risks, requires a big bankroll and is tedious work with the current AH.
Basically this. To add to it, it's really not a clever method for free money. You are essentially getting paid for the "work" of risking your money and dealing with the AH's interface. You're also increasing the supply of cheap packs, which lowers their price and will make this tactic less profitable in the long run. To make it viable, you're going to need a lot of money put in before the law of large numbers reduces the risk to stable levels. At a 2% proc rate, I think that those numbers would have to be high indeed.

Tazelbain
01-21-2015, 02:11 PM
you hate RNG! ^^
In this scenario, half of the player are getting below average primal pre packs. So half the peoples are being screwed out value of there packs. Doesn't seem like fun or smart business.

spankydonkey
01-21-2015, 02:33 PM
Lucky to be sure, I bought 20 set 2 packs in one go & got 3 Primal packs.
Next time I bought 65 set 2 packs split into 2 lots & got a big fat 0.
It's all down to luck.

Kami
01-21-2015, 02:34 PM
In this scenario, half of the player are getting below average primal pre packs. So half the peoples are being screwed out value of there packs. Doesn't seem like fun or smart business.

That's because you're thinking of it as buying Primal packs at a 2% rate.

The thing with Primals is that they are a bonus, not a product for sale, as far as the store is concerned. You are never buying Primals so you aren't getting screwed out of anything. If you were buying Primals and only getting regular packs... well, you're doing it wrong.

Chark
01-21-2015, 02:37 PM
It's actually a very common fallacy to look at other people's bonus value and assume it somehow zero-sum. A person getting a bonus is not somehow taking value away from you. Me using a 10% discount coupon at Home Depo shouldn't anger anyone. I am not sure why this does.

magic_gazz
01-21-2015, 02:38 PM
So it is you who is getting all the primals.

250 packs and I have got 1 :(

magic_gazz
01-21-2015, 02:39 PM
It's actually a very common fallacy to look at other people's bonus value and assume it somehow zero-sum. A person getting a bonus is not somehow taking value away from you. Me using a 10% discount coupon at Home Depo shouldn't anger anyone. I am not sure why this does.

But he got it and I didn't. I want. Give now.

hammer
01-21-2015, 02:51 PM
It's actually a very common fallacy to look at other people's bonus value and assume it somehow zero-sum. A person getting a bonus is not somehow taking value away from you. Me using a 10% discount coupon at Home Depo shouldn't anger anyone. I am not sure why this does.

sucker I got 15% discount :p

Chark
01-21-2015, 02:55 PM
sucker I got 15% discount :p

A couple of years ago I've learned to legitimately be happy for other people's successes and it changed my life in a good way. It mostly came with the realization that there will always be people in the world that are more _______ (insert any positive adjective here) than you and that's okay. Congratulations on getting 15% :)

Hexgo
01-21-2015, 03:40 PM
A couple of years ago I've learned to legitimately be happy for other people's successes and it changed my life in a good way. It mostly came with the realization that there will always be people in the world that are more _______ (insert any positive adjective here) than you and that's okay. Congratulations on getting 15% :)

Finally the SNB lifted the 1.2 Euro currency cap. As soon as gameforge adapts I'm happy at the moment :)

deathandtexas
01-21-2015, 03:50 PM
interesting. I'm curious whether bulk purchases have a higher percentage to drop primals. I've tried buying in batches of 5-10 and then also 1 at a time and haven't noticed any... (but then again I haven't gotten very many primals)

Tazelbain
01-21-2015, 04:03 PM
Glad you can be philosophical about it. Whether you view the glass of water as half full or half empty doesn't, you know, actually change the volume of water in the glass.

Chark
01-21-2015, 04:42 PM
Glad you can be philosophical about it. Whether you view the glass of water as half full or half empty doesn't, you know, actually change the volume of water in the glass.

You're right about the objective volume of water in the glass. However, the constant negativity about the glass in my twenties affected a large number of relationships and likely affected my ability to be a successful human being in a personal and professional life.

While television romanticizes the super smart assholes (see House, Elementary, Hell's Kitchen, etc.), the reality is that the real world definitely responds better to people who are able to take a positive outlook on life.

KingGabriel
01-21-2015, 04:51 PM
I was buying the packs off you for cheaper though, the non primal ones :P

Bloodslave
01-21-2015, 04:51 PM
At the current AH prices the EV for this activity assuming you can sell all the product you purchase is:

100*184 + 2*2100 = 22600.

Less ~5% fees = 21470

Every $200 in plat will net you $14.70 on average. Mileage may vary.

I wonder how long the margin will stay this high? From the most recent set of rares data that I have (about a week old at this point) the price of a set 2 pack is currently ~20 plat above the EV of that pack. It's good then I think, that the community can support this kind of activity, that means demand for packs is high which means tournaments are firing regularly.

Disclaimer: Not an economist.

nicosharp
01-21-2015, 04:59 PM
You're right about the objective volume of water in the glass. However, the constant negativity about the glass in my twenties affected a large number of relationships and likely affected my ability to be a successful human being in a personal and professional life.

While television romanticizes the super smart assholes (see House, Elementary, Hell's Kitchen, etc.), the reality is that the real world definitely responds better to people who are able to take a positive outlook on life.
Very true. Sometimes it takes a while longer for certain people to realize it. And even longer for those being negative to make a change if and when they are made aware.

Congrats on the primals OP. That is awesome.

Jonesy
01-21-2015, 05:35 PM
I use the AH quite a bit and I can tell you that the only way to sell 100 packs at max value is to list 1-2 at a time over the course of a few months. If you want to move 100 packs fast you're going to sell them significantly cheaper, and either way it'll be a ton of work at a terrible hourly rate.

Bloodslave
01-21-2015, 07:14 PM
I use the AH quite a bit and I can tell you that the only way to sell 100 packs at max value is to list 1-2 at a time over the course of a few months. If you want to move 100 packs fast you're going to sell them significantly cheaper, and either way it'll be a ton of work at a terrible hourly rate.

How long in your experience does it take for a pack to be sold? I've not yet sold any regular packs on the AH.

Poetic
01-21-2015, 07:55 PM
I usually throw 5 up at a time with 1-2 plat less than the lowest one up and they're gone within 5-10 minutes.

Zubrin
01-21-2015, 08:15 PM
The first rule of arbitrage is that you do not tell others about the edge that you find. At least this will bring down the prices of SD boosters dramatically in the next few days (already at 177p now). Also, SD Primals have been overpriced for weeks now (relative to their contents EV) by 300-400 platinum, so this should also have it drop quite a bit too. Those should be in the 1700-1800p range, not the 2100-2200 they have been.

wolzarg
01-21-2015, 08:23 PM
I use the AH quite a bit and I can tell you that the only way to sell 100 packs at max value is to list 1-2 at a time over the course of a few months. If you want to move 100 packs fast you're going to sell them significantly cheaper, and either way it'll be a ton of work at a terrible hourly rate.
I sold 50 i bought for a similar activity at max buyout in two days putting them up in bunches of 25 so definitely not true in my case.

That said the time it takes to do this / EV makes for a very shitty pay and after doing it a single time for the fun of seeing if it would work i quit and just had fun in the game instead. This might not be an option for some people and others might actually enjoy it, more power to them. But personally even with a "low" pay i simply make a lot more money at work and would rather keep my fun time fun.

PureVapes
01-21-2015, 08:35 PM
The first rule of arbitrage is that you do not tell others about the edge that you find. At least this will bring down the prices of SD boosters dramatically in the next few days (already at 177p now). Also, SD Primals have been overpriced for weeks now (relative to their contents EV) by 300-400 platinum, so this should also have it drop quite a bit too. Those should be in the 1700-1800p range, not the 2100-2200 they have been.

A few days ago, I calculated the EV of a set 2 primal to be approximately 2350p after AH fees, so I don't think they're really overpriced. Of course, that will drop as rares drop more, but set 2 legendary cards are on average still quite high. SD packs are definitely overpriced though, and I suspect they will drop more significantly than the primals.

Tazelbain
01-21-2015, 08:36 PM
You're right about the objective volume of water in the glass. However, the constant negativity about the glass in my twenties affected a large number of relationships and likely affected my ability to be a successful human being in a personal and professional life.

While television romanticizes the super smart assholes (see House, Elementary, Hell's Kitchen, etc.), the reality is that the real world definitely responds better to people who are able to take a positive outlook on life.
Thanks for your concern! But no worries I have great personal and professional life *and* hate the way the primals penalizes the unlucky at same time. Since you don't want to discuss the later (Since your words move Hex markets, I can understand why not) I don't think there is much to talk about.

poizonous
01-21-2015, 08:58 PM
Proof the OP got very lucky, I have bought 60 packs at a time twice and received 0 primals one time and 1 the next time. The system is not bugged but i do think Primal drops need a more "Guaranteed" drop rate. Like instead of the 2% chance, just make it once you generate 50 packs you receive 1 primal. I dont really see the harm in this option, but im sure people will disagree

ryuukan
01-21-2015, 09:00 PM
Proof the OP got very lucky, I have bought 60 packs at a time twice and received 0 primals one time and 1 the next time. The system is not bugged but i do think Primal drops need a more "Guaranteed" drop rate. Like instead of the 2% chance, just make it once you generate 50 packs you receive 1 primal. I dont really see the harm in this option, but im sure people will disagree

You might as well let people buy primal packs outright with a system like that

Chark
01-21-2015, 09:14 PM
Since you don't want to discuss the later (Since your words move Hex markets, I can understand why not) I don't think there is much to talk about.

Not really a markets issue. I am sure I can explain to you why this design decision is better than the alternatives, but it reveals too much behind the curtain of how games are made and overall would be a net negative to the community. Maybe at some kind of live event in the future we can talk about this.

Zubrin
01-21-2015, 09:44 PM
.

poizonous
01-21-2015, 09:48 PM
You might as well let people buy primal packs outright with a system like that

No that wouldnt do anything for the game, but my system removes the Randomness and inserts a strict policy of when a primal will pop for you. IT might even make the Market value of them a lot more sustainable

Kami
01-21-2015, 10:06 PM
No that wouldnt do anything for the game, but my system removes the Randomness and inserts a strict policy of when a primal will pop for you. IT might even make the Market value of them a lot more sustainable

There are a few problems with that:

1. People who can afford to spend more sooner will be able to earn more than others which leads to;
2. Devaluing of many rares/legendaries due to the frequent guarantee of Primals which leads back to;
3. People who can afford to spend more sooner will be able to sell rares/legendaries at prices before they devalue;
4. etc.

When it's random at 2% rate, spending more does not guarantee you get more value than the boosters you bought which actually leads to a more stable market.

poizonous
01-21-2015, 11:45 PM
Well I am of the group that has generated almost 800 packs now (would have to check collection total for exact number) and have only received 4 primals throughout everything. So yeah I would pull for a different system because someone who generated 100 packs and popped 8 primals has probably made more money just based on RNG

N3rd4Christ
01-22-2015, 12:19 AM
Does everyone chose to ignore the R in RNG.....

jonsnow2000
01-22-2015, 12:35 AM
I know one thing for sure - the current random system provides you with an incredible feeling when you DO beat the odds and get lucky Primals, especially after a long draugth. I went a couple weeks without Primals after generating lots of boosters via Draft rewards, then suddenly on 2 consecutive days I get Primals from just 1-2 generated packs.

LNQ
01-22-2015, 12:39 AM
I sold 50 i bought for a similar activity at max buyout in two days putting them up in bunches of 25 so definitely not true in my case.

To do this, you need to list your packs at a low minimum bid value so that they are listed first. This leads you to run the risk of someone bidding on your packs and listing new packs to move yours further down the list, and now you're in danger of selling your packs for a big loss.

Skoglar
01-22-2015, 04:34 AM
To do this, you need to list your packs at a low minimum bid value so that they are listed first. This leads you to run the risk of someone bidding on your packs and listing new packs to move yours further down the list, and now you're in danger of selling your packs for a big loss.

No you don't. People sort by the lowest buyout value, they don't just keep the default sorting.

Gulbech
01-22-2015, 05:26 AM
So we talk chance now, i give you my version of R.

In set 1, i got 175 packs from kickstarter = 1 primal. i won over 200 packs in draft = 1 primal
set 2, got 15 packs, and won 40 packs = 0 primal.
I been VIP from beginning = 0 primal.

So you got insane lucky,and i didnt - thats what Range is in RNG :P
Atleast somebody was so nice to give me a primal in secret santa.

malloc31
01-22-2015, 06:14 AM
You have to look at it like a lottery. You have 2 options buying from the store and for 200p you get a pack worth ~185p and a Primal lottery ticket for ~15p. Or you can just buy from the AH and just get the pack for ~185p. It's up to you to decide whether ~15p for a primal lottery ticket is worth it, but you are not being forced to participate, you can use the AH. If you buy lotto tickets and don't win you shouldn't be mad at the sellers, you knew what you were buying going it. If you don't want to lose your money don't gamble.

DocX
01-22-2015, 06:29 AM
Not really a markets issue. I am sure I can explain to you why this design decision is better than the alternatives, but it reveals too much behind the curtain of how games are made and overall would be a net negative to the community. Maybe at some kind of live event in the future we can talk about this.

Must make a note to talk about this next time I see Chark. I would love to hear about the second and third order effects of the design decisions from someone who gets paid for it (instead of yahoos like myself who just think about it when we're on message boards ;-)

Jeevus
01-22-2015, 06:44 AM
And here is another number for you: at least 400 packs since set 2 (including 80 set2 packs at once from KS at release). No primal.

Even though i didn't use the shop, just regular generated ones from draft prizes and vip's.


I actually am not sure that everything is working as intended. But you can always drop the topic and keep saying: "just unlucky." So let's do that, shall we?



Oh, one exception. I DID get one primal in a draft. That was the one time i wasn't playing at home, but at my parent's place with a freshly installed client. Might be another coincidence. But i tend to not believe in coincidences.

LNQ
01-22-2015, 07:26 AM
No you don't. People sort by the lowest buyout value, they don't just keep the default sorting.

Some people do, a lot of people don't. You can get a 5-10 plat higher price (double the margin in the Primal arbitrage) from your packs by selling what the first few pages of unsorted packs buyout for. However you're safer and probably can move much more packs by matching or beating the lowest buyout value. But if you have to move more packs, you also saturate the economy faster.

Warrender
01-22-2015, 08:54 AM
Just so you guys know, this kind of behavior is what paid for all the beautiful casinos in Las Vegas. Or past performance does not guarantee future results.

Saeijou
01-22-2015, 09:08 AM
Just so you guys know, this kind of behavior is what paid for all the beautiful casinos in Las Vegas. Or past performance does not guarantee future results.

and thats the point.... people want to be lucky, although they should know the odds...
of they are not, they start complaining ;)

Bloodslave
01-22-2015, 11:27 AM
And here is another number for you: at least 400 packs since set 2 (including 80 set2 packs at once from KS at release). No primal.

Even though i didn't use the shop, just regular generated ones from draft prizes and vip's.


I actually am not sure that everything is working as intended. But you can always drop the topic and keep saying: "just unlucky." So let's do that, shall we?



Oh, one exception. I DID get one primal in a draft. That was the one time i wasn't playing at home, but at my parent's place with a freshly installed client. Might be another coincidence. But i tend to not believe in coincidences.

The odds of getting 400 packs and no primal are about 1 in 3200. While unlikely to happen to any particular player, with the number of players in the game it is not surprising that it has occurred.

Vorpal
01-22-2015, 11:41 AM
I have not received any primals from anything. Not draft, not sealed, not constructed, not VIP, not the store.

Bloodslave
01-22-2015, 11:45 AM
I have not received any primals from anything. Not draft, not sealed, not constructed, not VIP, not the store.

How many packs have you earned/bought?

Jeevus
01-22-2015, 01:27 PM
The odds of getting 400 packs and no primal are about 1 in 3200. While unlikely to happen to any particular player, with the number of players in the game it is not surprising that it has occurred.

Wow i don't know where you saw 3200 players the last time. But it wasn't Hex. And i actually know that ossuary has a similar story to tell. So what you are basically saying now is, that me and ossuary are the 2 out of 6400 active hex players. I kinda doubt that.

I'm not complaining that i don't get primals, it's rather the amount of "coincidences", that led from one to another. Before KG patch, i received a primal once in a while. Since KG patch, they seem to be vanished. Just like that. No primals anymore, on top of that the problem with primal generation on set2 KS rewards (which is, at least for me, a proof that the pack generation can't be as perfect as claimed). Additionally to that, i did have some client issues (fluctuating card amount as one example), which was adressed by Datadragon per request in the bugforums.
Additionally to that, the second i am playing a few drafts on a fresh client at my parent's place, boom i actually get a primal. You might say, yea that was bound to happen at some point, just a coincidence it wasn't at your place/client. But here we are again. For me personally, a little too many coincidences and oddiites related to primal packs.

I'ts not that i am envious or something like that and just need to have my primal fixing once in a while. I just want to raise some concerns that the pack generation might not be as perfect as everyone claims. This is just hard to prove given the nature of the randomness system with a fairly low drop-rate. It's easy to just move it into the "you're just unlucky, very, maybe veeery unlucky".

dogmod
01-22-2015, 01:47 PM
Wow i don't know where you saw 3200 players the last time. But it wasn't Hex. And i actually know that ossuary has a similar story to tell. So what you are basically saying now is, that me and ossuary are the 2 out of 6400 active hex players. I kinda doubt that.

I'm not complaining that i don't get primals, it's rather the amount of "coincidences", that led from one to another. Before KG patch, i received a primal once in a while. Since KG patch, they seem to be vanished. Just like that. No primals anymore, on top of that the problem with primal generation on set2 KS rewards (which is, at least for me, a proof that the pack generation can't be as perfect as claimed). Additionally to that, i did have some client issues (fluctuating card amount as one example), which was adressed by Datadragon per request in the bugforums.
Additionally to that, the second i am playing a few drafts on a fresh client at my parent's place, boom i actually get a primal. You might say, yea that was bound to happen at some point, just a coincidence it wasn't at your place/client. But here we are again. For me personally, a little too many coincidences and oddiites related to primal packs.

I'ts not that i am envious or something like that and just need to have my primal fixing once in a while. I just want to raise some concerns that the pack generation might not be as perfect as everyone claims. This is just hard to prove given the nature of the randomness system with a fairly low drop-rate. It's easy to just move it into the "you're just unlucky, very, maybe veeery unlucky".

I would feel persecuted as well if I was the one that got 0/400.

Jonesy
01-22-2015, 04:24 PM
Sorting by price sorts by minimum bid, not maximum bid, clicking buyouts only only removes items with no buyout...unless they changed/fixed this recently and I don't know about it. You can often sell something ahead of somebody else who has a lower buyout by lowering your minimum bid and getting it closer to the first page, there is a small risk it gets purchased via the bidding but that rarely happens as there seem to be a horde of people attempting to snipe everything and failing 99.9% of the time. Only once in a few hundred auctions have I had something sell a fair amount below the going rate due to bidding, and even then it was just a pack going for like 15 plat less than it should.


The only way to sell 50 packs all at once is to severely under-price them or continuously cancel and re-list them lower as they get undercut, either way its a lot of work and you're leaving a lot of money on the table. Personally I wait until the cost rollercoaster is at a peak and sell a few at a time for the lowest available cost which is still at or above normal average value. If they sell quickly I'll repeat another couple packs until they stop selling or theyve been undercut too much for my liking.

Bloodslave
01-22-2015, 04:26 PM
Wow i don't know where you saw 3200 players the last time. But it wasn't Hex.

Just from the kickstarter page backers there were 17,657 tiers purchased. If I assume everyone bought 4 tiers that gives us ~4,400 players with accounts. That was about a year and a half ago. The subreddit has 2,411 readers subscribed. I believe it's a safe assumption to say that Hex has >= 3000 active players.


So what you are basically saying now is, that me and ossuary are the 2 out of 6400 active hex players. I kinda doubt that.

This is not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying the probability of getting 0 primals from 400 packs is .0003. Out of 3,200 players acquiring 400 packs, you would expect on average to have 1 of those players not receive any primals. But that's what you expect, it's not guaranteed to be what actually happens. There's always going to be variance, there might be more players that have 0 primals or there might be less.


I just want to raise some concerns that the pack generation might not be as perfect as everyone claims.

Only Hex Ent has that data. They can look at the distribution of primals that people have received. If it doesn't have a normal distribution centered around the proper expected value then they'll need to make some adjustments.

Jeevus
01-22-2015, 05:36 PM
Only Hex Ent has that data. They can look at the distribution of primals that people have received. If it doesn't have a normal distribution centered around the proper expected value then they'll need to make some adjustments.

Thats all i am saying. But you can't expect them to check something that they don't think is problematic. Their priorities are somewhere else.

And btw i don't think they have their data that comprehensive to actually figure out patterns that might be hidden. Just an example: Let's say your client needs to be pinged before the server can check and generate primals. So naturally, the closer you are to the client, the less issues may arise, so the distribution in that area is flawless, whereas issues between the client-server-communication in let's say europe/australia etc. are naturally higher and if the server thinks there is no response on that request, packs are given out - without primal. End of story: on paper, you might have your 2% (lets just take the number for convenience) primal generation. In reality, the primal generation is 5%, but due to the issues from latency, europe/australia etc. gets way less primals than us, which drags down the percentage to 2.

Once again, this example is nothing but an imaginary scenario created by me. I don't know how primal generation works, and thats good the way it is. Only thing i am asking for is to check if there is anything that might cause issues for primal generation. For example using multiple accounts on one pc.

Bloodslave
01-22-2015, 05:54 PM
Just an example: Let's say your client needs to be pinged before the server can check and generate primals.

I don't think that's how it would work. It would just be simpler to have a function that just rolls a number and decides whether to pay out 1 pack or a pack and a primal. It would be interesting to see the actual distribution of primals and how it compares to theory.

a-V-e-n
01-22-2015, 06:50 PM
Talking about chances, the epic streak Phoenixfire has hit yesterday had just 1 in 15309 odds of happening. That doesn't have to mean there are 15000+ players who also spent $900 on packs (that's not how probability works). But it means if there were so many players spending so much each, on average only one would get THAT lucky streak.

The vast majority of players won't have anywhere near that luck. A month ago I tried doing this with 300 packs, received just 3 primals, was at a major loss and selling those packs took forever.

I'd say it's totally not worth doing even if EV seems positive. The market just won't buy all those packs and primals at the prices you want them to. It is especially risky if your bankroll is low, the variance can ruin you.

Yoss
01-23-2015, 09:31 PM
Dunno if it was because of this thread, but the margin is now negative, just slightly.

jonsnow2000
01-24-2015, 12:15 AM
I think its more the VIP tourneys - the players who go 3-1 and 4-0 are often those who dont need the extra packs and try to sell them quickly. On the flipside it seems ppl have learned from the VIP AAs. I haven't seen any of the new cards below 2500 Plat so far, but of course it's only the start of the weekend. If buyers are smart they will just wait till sellers go into panic mode

Ditsch
01-24-2015, 02:25 AM
I still don't believe the 2% so can we have a word on it if that chance is true or not ? I never got a primal from my vip or from my tournament winnings ect. Only when i claimed my kickstarter pro tier i had 3 primals (one was free i think because it was a stretchgoal). So till now no set 2 primal. It's odd that a lot of people win a lot of stuff but never get a primal at all my winnings and vip should be already around 400 packs with out a single primal.

Bloodslave
01-24-2015, 03:38 AM
We'll only know if it's anomalous if hex releases the data for the distribution of primal winnings in the community. But that would require them telling us how many active accounts there are, something they already stated they don't want to do. Without that data we can't really tell how weird it is.

israel.kendall
01-24-2015, 04:08 AM
I think its more the VIP tourneys - the players who go 3-1 and 4-0 are often those who dont need the extra packs and try to sell them quickly. On the flipside it seems ppl have learned from the VIP AAs. I haven't seen any of the new cards below 2500 Plat so far, but of course it's only the start of the weekend. If buyers are smart they will just wait till sellers go into panic mode

They've dropped below 25 already, and still dropping. Will only go lower as more and more people try to dump them this weekend.

Chark
01-24-2015, 04:17 PM
I still don't believe the 2% so can we have a word on it if that chance is true or not ? I never got a primal from my vip or from my tournament winnings ect. Only when i claimed my kickstarter pro tier i had 3 primals (one was free i think because it was a stretchgoal). So till now no set 2 primal. It's odd that a lot of people win a lot of stuff but never get a primal at all my winnings and vip should be already around 400 packs with out a single primal.

Official word is as follows:

1. We've never confirmed the primal pack drop rate. My below statements shouldn't be interpreted as any sort of confirmation or endorsement of any drop rate.

2. The primal pack drop rates in the game are consistent with our expectations.

Ditsch
01-24-2015, 05:35 PM
@Chark finally thank you so much. So i was always right there was never a official word about the 2% , people always told me it's 2% but never could show me the official answer. I have no problem that you don't say how much it is i only wanted to be sure that the urban legend 2% is not a official number. :)

So is it the drop rate chance a fix % chance on any pack generated or does it depend on how the pack is generated ? Because you say the drop rates (clearly that wording suggest me it's a bunch of drop rates) in the game are consistent of you expect, i get the feeling people expect it to be always the same but my experience tells me it depends on event that created the pack.

Thank you.

LNQ
01-25-2015, 01:47 AM
I would be surprised if the drop rated were different for different ways of obtaining packs. To have it like that and not tell anyone would be very unfair and misleading.

Mike411
01-25-2015, 08:40 AM
I would be surprised if the drop rated were different for different ways of obtaining packs. To have it like that and not tell anyone would be very unfair and misleading.

Even if it was that way, I don't see how it would be unfair. It can't be misleading if they don't say anything about it... they aren't leading us anywhere.

LNQ
01-25-2015, 11:41 AM
Well that's true, but there has never been any word of primal drop rates to varying by source, so you intuitively expect the drop rate to be the same no matter where the packs are generated.

If the drop rates vary by source, players who are using specific sources to get their packs are put into a disadvantageous position with no idea that they might be doing so. I think that is unfair.

A varying drop rate would also cloud the value of tournament rewards and VIP value. If VIP packs don't generate Primals as often as Store bought packs do, that is a hidden devaluation of the VIP packs. Same goes for tournament rewards, it wouldn't feel nice if a varying drop rate would be completely hidden from us causing us to overestimate tournament reward values.

Barkam
01-25-2015, 12:13 PM
I doubt that there is any differences of drop rate for different sources. You would only do that if you are trying to incentivize people to do certain things like buying packs from store instead of the AH. If they are trying to incentivize, they wouldn't keep it secret otherwise the behavior they want to see won't happen as people don't know any better. Chark is very in tuned with how the average person thinks and how they tend to behave.

LNQ
01-25-2015, 12:52 PM
Exactly. That's a good point.