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View Full Version : Wealth on test server! lets find out the primal rate!



Saeijou
02-06-2015, 02:52 PM
the 2% isn't confirmed... so let's try it?!

I bought:
20 packs - 0 primal
20 packs - 1 primal
200 packs - 5 primal

Svenn
02-06-2015, 02:59 PM
I'm pretty sure the 2% was confirmed by a dev.

Either way, I bought 100 packs, got 2 primals.

Gwaer
02-06-2015, 02:59 PM
No, if I get even a single primal on the test server I will explode with rage.

Xexist
02-06-2015, 03:43 PM
i'm pretty sure the 2% was confirmed by a dev.

Either way, i bought 100 packs, got 2 primals.

bought 300. Got 11.

PureVapes
02-06-2015, 03:47 PM
Bought 450, generated 9 primals.

poizonous
02-06-2015, 04:18 PM
120 packs and only 1. my primal luck seems to be the same on the test server

ossuary
02-06-2015, 04:30 PM
No, if I get even a single primal on the test server I will explode with rage.

Same here. I won't even spin the Wheels of Fate on test, because I'm positive if I do I'll get the rare sleeves that have been eluding me, and there will end up being a monitor-sized hole in my wall. :p

Salverus
02-06-2015, 04:36 PM
50 - 1

israel.kendall
02-06-2015, 05:41 PM
Saving all my plat for tourney entry lolz 50k plat high roller tier.

FlyingMeatchip
02-06-2015, 06:00 PM
I seem to get a primal with every 20 packs purchased. Real life and in test server.

Scammanator
02-06-2015, 06:01 PM
Bought 50 set 2 packs. Received 3 primals.

Zophie
02-06-2015, 06:15 PM
I "purchased" about ~200 packs (not sure of exact count), and got about 15 primals... Would be nice if I was this lucky on the Live server!

Aradon
02-06-2015, 06:38 PM
Purchased 500 set 2 boosters, received 11 primals.

silverlocke
02-06-2015, 08:09 PM
60 - 1

Ju66ernaut
02-06-2015, 08:12 PM
98 - 1

SirGregory
02-06-2015, 08:16 PM
25 - 0 so far

Unspecified
02-06-2015, 09:47 PM
400 packs - 9 Primals

Armies
02-06-2015, 11:34 PM
600 packs 4 primals :(

Clawdius
02-06-2015, 11:39 PM
I bought 20 packs, and got 2 primal. Meanwhile I got like 80 packs worth of rewards from matches in the normal server and haven't seen a single primal yet. We're going to wind up with too small a data set to really be meaningful.

Yoss
02-06-2015, 11:47 PM
Preparing to burn 173,000 plat...

EDIT:
200 - 3
200 - 2
200 - 4
200 - 3
50 - 2
10 - 0
6 - 0

total:

866 packs - 14 primals

Yoss
02-06-2015, 11:53 PM
We're going to wind up with too small a data set to really be meaningful.

I think you underestimate the power of crowd sourcing.

Arrgh
02-07-2015, 02:06 AM
So i spent my plat to buy 100 packs a pop

Results:

100-1
100-8
100-2
100-2
100:5

Prodygi
02-07-2015, 02:31 AM
50packs a pop.

1, 1, 0, 0, 2

Saeijou
02-07-2015, 03:19 AM
I'm pretty sure the 2% was confirmed by a dev.

Either way, I bought 100 packs, got 2 primals.

thats actually stated: http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=40443&page=2&p=451332#post451332

Official word is as follows:

1. We've never confirmed the primal pack drop rate. My below statements shouldn't be interpreted as any sort of confirmation or endorsement of any drop rate.

2. The primal pack drop rates in the game are consistent with our expectations.

results until now:
Name Buyed Primals
Saeijou 240 6
Svenn 100 2
Xexist 300 11
PureVapes 450 9
poizonous 120 1
Salverus 50 1
sammanator 50 2
zophie 200 15
aradon 500 11
silverlocke 60 1
juggernaut 98 1
sirgregory 25 0
unspecified 400 9
armies 600 4
clawdius 20 2
yoss 866 14
arrgh 400 13
prodygi 250 4

Sum: 4729 106

thats a rate of 2,241488687%

Edswor
02-07-2015, 05:48 AM
Packs - Primals:
10 - 1
20 - 0
20 - 1
20 - 1
20 - 1

Shippal
02-07-2015, 07:06 AM
120 - 3

CrystalShard
02-07-2015, 07:50 AM
Packs - Primals:
20 - 0
20 - 0
10 - 1

Trothael
02-07-2015, 08:35 AM
100 - 1

Pezzle
02-07-2015, 09:04 AM
my drop rate this morning, 2.57142857142857 %

ossuary
02-07-2015, 09:53 AM
FINE.

600 Set 2 packs. 8 primals.

Bite me, Kismet. :p

SirGregory
02-07-2015, 10:45 AM
75 - 4
100 - 3
100 - 2

Incindium
02-07-2015, 10:53 AM
Set 2 packs

50 - 1
50 - 2
50 - 1
50 - 1
50 - 2
50 - 3
--------
300 - 10

Kurasa
02-07-2015, 10:59 AM
800 Set 2 packs, 15 primals

spankydonkey
02-07-2015, 12:03 PM
200 = 2
100 = 1
100 = 1

Spot on 1% drop rate for me.

katkillad
02-07-2015, 12:42 PM
A dev in chat said it was 2%

Mr.Funsocks
02-07-2015, 02:32 PM
800 - 3

Yeah that seems to be about what I get for primals. Still have only gotten 1 primal on live.

Ju66ernaut
02-07-2015, 02:37 PM
100 - 1

Mr.Funsocks
02-07-2015, 02:38 PM
I wonder if anyone will beat my rate of 0.37%...

CoS
02-07-2015, 04:35 PM
200 set 2 packs - 1 primal

Skoglar
02-07-2015, 05:50 PM
700 set 2 packs and 12 primals

parogui
02-07-2015, 05:53 PM
120 packs, only 1

Voormas
02-07-2015, 05:59 PM
All in one go, 823 Set 2 boosters = 15 Primals

Mr.Funsocks
02-07-2015, 11:10 PM
Surely someone has worse luck than me... 0.37%... goddamn.

ossuary
02-08-2015, 02:30 AM
I wonder if anyone will beat my rate of 0.37%...

For a very long time, my primal drop rate was below 0.3%... the lowest it went was about 0.26%. But recently I finally got a primal after a very very long dry spell (288 packs across 2 accounts), and I'm back above that now. My grand total of all primals ever (including the ones we got from the KS) is still only 4 though. :p

Yoss
02-08-2015, 07:45 PM
So I guess we're ready for a final tally of this thread. (Note this is the second thread we've done this on.)

Aradon
02-08-2015, 09:25 PM
My math could be mistaken, but my count shows:

10107 packs opened, 185 primals received, suggesting a 1.83% drop rate.

Yoss
02-08-2015, 09:36 PM
So it fits in nicely with our previous data predicting a 2% rate. I believe the previous thread predicted a rate just slightly over 2%

Aradon
02-08-2015, 10:16 PM
It's a fair bit lower than I expected, but from what I'm told, 10K trials isn't enough to eliminate variance :P

Tinfoil
02-09-2015, 07:21 AM
I bought 10 packs and got 3 primals. So now, every time I don't get a primal on the live server, I blame test server luck #gamblersfallacy. But okay, I bought 10 more afterwards just to test and got no primals.

Saeijou
02-09-2015, 12:53 PM
It's a fair bit lower than I expected, but from what I'm told, 10K trials isn't enough to eliminate variance :P

mh... i think 10k should be fairly enough :/

but yeah... i think it's below 2%

Yoss
02-09-2015, 01:20 PM
Relevant:

I ran through the first 90 posts of this thread and appended the data to my old alpha data. The data here is less reliable due to bad reporting, but I think we can be pretty sure at this point that the rate is 2% primals. My data set is now over 10,000 boosters and is reporting at 2.07% rate.

Saeijou
02-09-2015, 02:28 PM
maybe next time we should have some groups as well... maybe the rate is different if you buy
1-50
50-150
150+

or something like that?!

ManofPeace
02-09-2015, 03:55 PM
It's conjecture. It would be fruitless and ultimately harmful since rumors would just spread about random shit that has no bearing. They've given no indication for us to think otherwise. No reason for us to manufacture one.

Saeijou
02-11-2015, 12:02 PM
We have no answer from HexEnt directly... of course it's conjecture... but they could simply give an answer, or not?

Zophie
02-11-2015, 01:04 PM
We have no answer from HexEnt directly... of course it's conjecture... but they could simply give an answer, or not?

They've already said it's not 2% but rather a control that they can change at will depending on how the economy is working. From our analysis we can see that it tends to float around 2% but they will never officially say "It's 2%".

Saeijou
02-11-2015, 01:31 PM
They've already said it's not 2% but rather a control that they can change at will depending on how the economy is working. From our analysis we can see that it tends to float around 2% but they will never officially say "It's 2%".

I see your point... I never thought about that to be honest.

ManofPeace
02-11-2015, 02:00 PM
We have no answer from HexEnt directly... of course it's conjecture... but they could simply give an answer, or not?
Not sure you understood my point. It's irrelevant whether HexEnt tells us. When crowd sourcing, don't make up variables. What we know is the following:
Whenever a pack that originated from HexEnt first enters your inventory, there is a X% chance to generate a primal pack.

Don't muddle the data by suggesting other things (i.e, bulk purchasing, location based, shared birthdate with Cory Jones, etc ).


They've already said it's not 2% but rather a control that they can change at will depending on how the economy is working. From our analysis we can see that it tends to float around 2% but they will never officially say "It's 2%".
When/Where was this said?

Zophie
02-11-2015, 02:19 PM
When/Where was this said?

From http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=38027&p=411502&viewfull=1#post411502:


I thought about you saying to check secondary market data. So basicly this means that the primal dropchance is your main regulation tool to adjust your prize target of this market? That is ingenious!

It's one of the controls, yes. I can also work with R&D to reduce the number of unique legendaries in a future set, or to increase the number of legendaries that drop from a primal pack.

If my goal is to make the set easier to collect and we accept the premise of an Auction House to aid in individual's collecting of cards, I can increase the supply of legendary cards through other means (for example by issuing AA equivalents of legendary cards via other programs).

And then from http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=40443&page=2&p=451332#post451332:


Official word is as follows:

1. We've never confirmed the primal pack drop rate. My below statements shouldn't be interpreted as any sort of confirmation or endorsement of any drop rate.

2. The primal pack drop rates in the game are consistent with our expectations.

ManofPeace
02-11-2015, 02:44 PM
I'm a bit confused. Still not sure how you came about your previous statement given what was said.


They've already said it's not 2%
He said that they never confirmed the rate. A statement of "The primal drop rate is not 2%" is entirely different.


but rather a control that they can change at will depending on how the economy is working.
The primal drop rate is a control. Full stop.
He gave no indication that they were actively changing it on a regular basis to suit the current economy or were looking to change it in the future.

My issue with your previous post is that you seem to be conflating two different subjects and implying something new from it.

Zophie
02-11-2015, 02:50 PM
I've seen more direct responses from devs saying as much, these are the first two quotes I found related to the suject from a quick search. Try not to read too much into this, the point is they won't confirm the drop rate, and they are able to change it behind the scenes as needed (which is likely why they won't confirm the rate). At the end of the day it doesn't really matter, we have our approximate answer based on the limited testing we've done, and thats good enough for me.

Armies
02-12-2015, 11:34 PM
265 more 6 primals

nicosharp
02-12-2015, 11:58 PM
80 / 2

Frank1397
02-13-2015, 07:59 AM
1 time bought 100 0 primal
2 time bought 100 1 primal

chromus
02-13-2015, 11:13 AM
184 packs, 3 Primals

Zophie
02-13-2015, 12:25 PM
Much less luck so far this time around: 200x set 2 packs, 1 primal.

Fred
02-13-2015, 01:52 PM
Just bought 400 packs at once. Got 3 primals. That's under 1% :(

WWKnight
02-14-2015, 12:04 AM
Bought 100, got 1.
Bought 100, got 5.
Bought 100, got 2.
Bought 100, got 3.
Bought 100, got 1.

500 packs bought, 12 primals.

Morgant
02-14-2015, 10:16 AM
3/100, 3/100, 3/100, 1/100, 1/100.
11/500.

nicosharp
02-14-2015, 11:08 AM
200 / 5

Zophie
02-14-2015, 12:04 PM
400 packs / 7 primals

Yoss
02-14-2015, 02:32 PM
buying 50 at a time: 100111012

total 450 packs, 7 primals

Cephied
02-14-2015, 03:24 PM
2/100, 2/100, 2/100, 4/100, 2/100, 3/100

15/600

Philomorph
02-14-2015, 06:38 PM
Speaking of wealth, for some reason I've recently gotten a crudload of plat. Anyone else suddenly have an additional 100k or so?

Stok3d
02-14-2015, 06:50 PM
700 packs / 10 primals

Zophie
02-14-2015, 07:20 PM
100 / 0

Philomorph
02-14-2015, 07:38 PM
200 Shattered Destiny Boosters = 3 Primal
200 Shard of Fate Boosters = 4 Primal

Incindium
02-14-2015, 08:07 PM
Set 2 Packs

50 - 1
50 - 0
50 - 0
50 - 0
50 - 2
50 - 1
50 - 1
50 - 1
50 - 0
50 - 2
50 - 2
50 - 0
50 - 3
50 - 1
50 - 1
50 - 1
50 - 0
50 - 3
50 - 1
_______
950 - 20

Halsey
02-14-2015, 08:24 PM
374 set 2 packs just netted me 3 primals

deificus
02-15-2015, 02:46 AM
I think you underestimate the power of crowd sourcing.

I think you overestimate the power of statistical estimation for Bernoulli variables with small p. I think this project has gone about as far as it can (at least without _much_ more data). 10k Samples of something with p around 2% puts the 95% confidence interval at +/-0.3%. To get that down to +/- 0.1% we need 75k samples. So all we can really say (and are likely to be able to say any time soon) is about 2%.

Mr.Funsocks
02-15-2015, 07:39 AM
Just bought 400 packs at once. Got 3 primals. That's under 1% :(

Still double my rate!

Kurasa
02-15-2015, 08:19 AM
1000 Set 2 packs, 16 primals

Yoss
02-15-2015, 01:00 PM
I think you overestimate the power of statistical estimation for Bernoulli variables with small p. I think this project has gone about as far as it can (at least without _much_ more data). 10k Samples of something with p around 2% puts the 95% confidence interval at +/-0.3%. To get that down to +/- 0.1% we need 75k samples. So all we can really say (and are likely to be able to say any time soon) is about 2%.

And so your solution is "don't bother"? How is zero samples better than 10k samples?

ossuary
02-15-2015, 04:39 PM
"Roughly 2%, assuming CZE doesn't alter it" sounds good enough to me, for now. :)

deificus
02-15-2015, 05:02 PM
And so your solution is "don't bother"? How is zero samples better than 10k samples?

I didn't say the project hadn't been useful so far, just that it has gone as far as it can without much more data.

Yoss
02-15-2015, 05:22 PM
I didn't say the project hadn't been useful so far, just that it has gone as far as it can without much more data.

Fair enough.

Mr.Funsocks
02-27-2015, 09:39 PM
I magically had 560,200 plat when I logged in today. Somehow, I actually hit the primal rate of 2%!

59 / 2801 packs = 2.1% primal rate. No more .04% for me!

Yoss
02-28-2015, 09:32 AM
2700 packs 54 primal. Dead on 2.000000000%