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View Full Version : Feedback on the Wheel of Fate and other musings of an Auction House Seller



Malcain
04-09-2015, 07:30 PM
For some reason, which I will mostly contribute to being insane, I decided to devote my time to gold generation so I could spin all of my chests, which considering I'm a king and collector backer was no small task.
The end result is:

Shards of Fate:
17 Primal chests
30 Legendary chests
56 Rare chests
137 uncommon chests
184 common chests

Shattered destiny:
4 Legendary chests
13 Rare chests
31 Uncommon chests
48 common chests

From all of this I roughly got:
Shards of fate:
The common and rare sleeves
The common mercenary [insert high number here] times over
Equipment: At least one of(and usually more) Aqua mask(common), Spark mitts(Common), Electric flail(uncommon), and Sky walkers(rare)
PVE cards: Tons of lightning elementals(common) and 3 air elementals(says legendary but is not as rare a result as the water elemental.)
Alternate art cards: Tons of windbourne acolytes(common) 3 wrathwood colossi(rare)
PVP rares/legendary: a reasonable but not very large number of rares and a Fist of Briggadon

Shattered destiny:
The common sleeves
The common mercenary a few times
Equipment: Bunch of fungal blooms(Common) and a Taskmaster blade(rare)
PVE cards: Lots and Lots of Death Caps(Common), 1 Shiitake Chef, and 1 Fungal monstrosity
Alternate art cards: 4 Reactor bots
PVP Rares: I don't think any.

The results of the extras are roughly what I expected as a small sampling size is prone to being swingy rather than a nice even distribution, but I do feel the rare stuff on the wheels of fate may be way too rare, or I might just be somewhat unlucky in this case. I don't have perfect data on the odds to evaluate so I won't try to guess at the point too much.

The extras I got from spinning seem more like they're meant to be little consolation prizes however, and the real reward feels like it's supposed to be the chest upgrade. This is emphasized by the large jumps that the pricing takes as you go up in chest quality. As far as I estimate the current rough value of gold is 15000 = 100 platinum, so the spins on the common chests are like nickel slots and are quite fun in a mindless and flashy way. The problem I have really is as you start going up in quality the rewards stay the same, so when you throw $2 into a spin on a rare chest and get the return of a single eye effectively telling you that you lost your money, it really just feels bad. Worse yet, none of the other rewards that let you reroll other than the chest upgrades come anywhere close to covering the cost of the spin itself and feel almost as bad. I'm sorry little electric flail, you are just not going to sell for 30K in the auction house.

The real goal of spinning legendary chests is to end up with a primal one, but I have a hard time believing that I probably didn't just flush money down the drain on it. This is somewhat fine in my case as I did this knowing that there would be uncertain rewards at the end, but what's being put in these chests needs to be carefully considered if you want to make the wheel of fate a viable gold sink and not just a trap for foolish gambling addicts, especially when it comes to legendary chests. As far as I could tell from statistics people have been able to figure on the boards, and from how it feels in general to me, chests have ~20% chance to upgrade at least one level on a spin, meaning that it takes five spins of legendary chests to turn one into a primal. This means that a primal upgrade will cost you 150,000 gold, which at the current rate is about $10. There is a little bit of mitigation to this cost due to the other rewards of rolling, but at best these rewards might take a dollar on average if I'm being very generous. This means that if the difference between a shards of fate legendary and primal chest is not around 135,000 gold, or 900 platinum then it will never be worth using the wheel of fate on these chests.

Common chests, on the other hand, are almost definitely worth spinning as at 1200 a spin the cost is near trivial and almost all of the special results are worth more than you're spending. This is even more so if the difference between the rewards in the chests are significant enough to make chest upgrades a good pay out. I feel, however, that this should be the case with all the chests and not just the common ones, as the better the rewards there are for spinning chests, then the more demand there will be for gold among the paying players, which increases the quality of the experience for the low dollar/free to play crowd. Also, better rewards at the higher level makes it so it doesn't feel so bad to roll on a legendary chest, which currently only really has two good feeling results: No reward(Yay, I can't to roll on this again(this doesn't seem right)) and upgrade to a primal chest(more standard yay).

As for the actual contents of the chests when they can be open, I know gold was mentioned as a reward, but I would like to caution that the amount shouldn't be too high, but I think the idea is give the more stubborn players who want nothing to do with gold as a currency a taste so they can see what they can get from the wheel of fate and possibly hook them on it, which I'm fine with.

Executive Summary:
It costs a great deal to spin legendaries, which means the difference between them and primal chests should be worth at least 135,000 at least. For sets past shattered destiny I strongly encourage having most of the rewards to scale as you roll on more expensive chests so as to not have most of the good results effectively turned into bad ones. Please don't put to much gold inside the chests themselves, though I don't think I have to worry about this really.

Off to tangents!

Gold Generation and the Auction House
So generating millions of gold via doing arenas alone would take roughly until the heat death of the universe so instead I used the auction house to generate the large amount of gold I needed so I could throw it away on a slot machine. My sales, however mostly consisted of extra commons and uncommons as well as the occasional extra rare, though they didn't generate as much money as quickly for me as the lower rarity cards did. This is a pain and is very time consuming obviously, as the auction house lacks a lot of features to make it easy, but it's these same lack of features that is keeping a lot of product off the market and lead to me making my millions of gold/thousands of pennies. This is probably fine for now, but as the non-kickstarter/whale player population increases improvements to the auction house would probably be a nice, subtle way to fight gold inflation, which leads me to another topic.

The Value of Gold
My large amount of time working the auction house has given me a relative feel for the value of gold, which I estimate currently at about 15000 gold = 100 platinum, which in my opinion is a good ratio but may be hard to sustain. The currency has actually been somewhat deflating from my estimate, though it's a hard thing to calculate as card values are going through a quick cycle of value adjustments(appealing cards are increasing in price steadily and undesired and overvalued cards are losing value quickly.) in the common and uncommon markets. The rare and legendary markets deal in gold quite a bit less and are usually either over priced or bought out instantly by people like me who have relative ideas of the value of gold.

The Arena
I've also played the arena quite a bit in this time and love finally having PVE content to do. Before this feature I struggled to find time to log on and do my free draft a week, but since it's release Hex has been my primary hobby. My experience, however, is very much influenced by my large collection, which has been expanding even more lately as I've turned my gold generation as well as my platinum to gathering cards, which lets me run a large variety of decks using play sets of some of the rarer cards.

Yoss
04-09-2015, 08:00 PM
Nice first post. :)

Drake6k
04-09-2015, 08:08 PM
Excellent post.

I haven't been spinning chests very much. I feel like I'd rather buy the AAs on the store with my gold and resell those than waste my gold spinning chests and getting stuff that is worth practically nothing.

IronPheasant
04-09-2015, 08:15 PM
This means that if the difference between a shards of fate legendary and primal chest is not around 135,000 gold, or 900 platinum then it will never be worth using the wheel of fate on these chests.

That's a hard one, I guess. No piece of equipment will be worth it; all we card nerds care about is cards.

But if the Primal Chest contained Primal Boosters (and I assume that has to be at least one of the results), or multiple unique alternate art cards... well.

Speaking of boosters, didn't notice you mention getting any on the slots?

Bmon
04-09-2015, 08:27 PM
Really excellent post. For peoples' consideration, you'll see some interesting cards if you play Cory enough or if you take a look at the hexpromos site. There are leaked AA mastery of time and arborean root father cards which are rumored to be chest drops. I could see the mastery of time being a set 1 primal chest drop which could easily make up the 900 plat difference if you get it.

Xenavire
04-09-2015, 08:33 PM
I have been dissatisfied with the overall experience of the wheels, and this thread more or less mirrors my own experience (the red rolls being much rarer than the gold rolls.)

If you have no use for the spare equipment, I am looking for several pieces that refuse to drop for me - you can easily contact me in-game if you are interested. (Same name as here.)

magic_gazz
04-09-2015, 08:34 PM
Totally agree that the legendary and primal chests need to be pretty amazing. The cost of spinning is so high.

I have a lot of chests, selling the contents is gonna take me ages. Think I need to hire someone to list my stuff for me as it takes too long.

Oroniss
04-09-2015, 08:47 PM
When I realised it would cost me $100 to have a single spin on each of my legendary chests, I decided to hold off rolling them. There will have to be some pretty crazy contents to justify that.

Mejis
04-09-2015, 09:27 PM
Really excellent post (and your first!), thanks for all the research and thoughts you put into it.

I've stopped spinning chests after commons, want to wait and see what the higher rarity chests yield before trying to upgrade any further.

Aside: Xen, what equipment are you after?

Chark
04-09-2015, 10:26 PM
Malcain, thank you for your thoughts. Really good insight into the player's experience with the WoF.

asdf2000
04-09-2015, 10:34 PM
Given how difficult it is to get primal chests, I would say that their contents should at least *mostly* be only available from within primal chests. Then the rarity of the contents are directly linked to the rarity of primal chests, which should ensure that they have a high value.

Oli
04-09-2015, 10:47 PM
I also stopped spinning my legendary chests as I did the math for the costs some days ago.
I surely will wait for the rewards from the chests to reconsider spinning these 12 chests too, as the rewards from the WoF stay the same.
Maybe make the rarity of the items rolled dependent on the chest-type. So a common chest can have all different rarities of equipment or AA-cards, but a rare-chest can only generate rare equipment or AA cards. It's not that nice to spin for 30.000 gold and get another air-elemental.

Malcain
04-10-2015, 12:56 AM
Speaking of boosters, didn't notice you mention getting any on the slots?
I think I got three or four packs at most, as packs are rewards given for triple red on the same symbol, which is the rarest thing on the wheel in my experience, unlike that single red eye that just stares and silently taunts you with it's paid reroll "reward".

bootlace
04-10-2015, 03:58 AM
As someone said the contents will be as rare as the chests themselves. If we are to assume an AA like Mastery of Time lay inside it then that will easily be worth north of $30. They can actually tweak with the contents and drop rates as to assure that the EV of rolling is almost equal on average. Then it's up to the player to decide if they want to gamble or not, similar to the decision we have with Primal packs.

Btw two things I don't like about the slot machine while I have the chance:

-You can never get an Eye roll in second or third slot unless you got it in first.

-You can never get three different red or gold icons.

Im guessing there's a reason why this was done but it definitely removes excitement during the roll, especially if first two rolls are duds, and doesn't mirror a real slot machine.

Xenavire
04-10-2015, 04:16 AM
Really excellent post (and your first!), thanks for all the research and thoughts you put into it.

I've stopped spinning chests after commons, want to wait and see what the higher rarity chests yield before trying to upgrade any further.

Aside: Xen, what equipment are you after?

I don't have time right this minute, but I have a trading thread I am slowly updating - I will add the equipment to it tonight and link it here.

Jeevus
04-10-2015, 04:55 AM
As someone said the contents will be as rare as the chests themselves. If we are to assume an AA like Mastery of Time lay inside it then that will easily be worth north of $30. They can actually tweak with the contents and drop rates as to assure that the EV of rolling is almost equal on average. Then it's up to the player to decide if they want to gamble or not, similar to the decision we have with Primal packs.

Btw two things I don't like about the slot machine while I have the chance:

-You can never get an Eye roll in second or third slot unless you got it in first.

-You can never get three different red or gold icons.

Im guessing there's a reason why this was done but it definitely removes excitement during the roll, especially if first two rolls are duds, and doesn't mirror a real slot machine.

And thats not the only problem. If you for example have all sleeves, you will never hit a triple yellow/red or even normal sleeve roll again. That basically means that as soon as you see the first symbol for sleeves, the spin is wasted, ultimately lowering your overall chances to get triple reds/yellows once you have all sleeves from that set.

Xenavire
04-10-2015, 04:59 AM
And thats not the only problem. If you for example have all sleeves, you will never hit a triple yellow/red or even normal sleeve roll again. That basically means that as soon as you see the first symbol for sleeves, the spin is wasted, ultimately lowering your overall chances to get triple reds/yellows once you have all sleeves from that set.

It may feel like that, but the result is determined before any symbols are shown - the symbols are all for show. Any time you get a fail, it was a fail even before you saw the mushroom.

Effectively, it was just picking any random assortment of fail symbols to show you. :p

Jeevus
04-10-2015, 05:03 AM
It doesn't change the fact that the shrooms are still in the roll table, just as a guaranteed fail (in terms of 3 of a kind). That's not the case if you don't have the sleeves complete. Or am i missing something here?

On top of that, i can still get 2 yellow shrooms, which is probably not even counted as fail, but success (2.5k gold).

Lafoote
04-10-2015, 05:19 AM
Insightful read. Most enjoyable.

Vorpal
04-10-2015, 09:45 AM
I've stopped rolling on higher rarity chests until we figure out how the contents work. At one point it was stated all chests pull from the same pool, and all rarity increases give you one more item. In which case it wouldn't make sense to go for the higher rarities.

If it does turn out to be worthwhile to go for the higher rarity, I think the VERY steep gold price will do a good job of helping gold from arena to hold its value.

Xenavire
04-10-2015, 10:01 AM
http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=42510

For Mejis.

knightofeffect
04-10-2015, 10:18 AM
Yea man, great first post. I have been on the "wheels of fate rework should be a very high priority" bandwagon for a while. It's a really cool idea, but the implementation is lacking.

Chark
04-10-2015, 10:26 AM
It doesn't change the fact that the shrooms are still in the roll table, just as a guaranteed fail (in terms of 3 of a kind). That's not the case if you don't have the sleeves complete. Or am i missing something here?

You are. When we randomly select an outcome on the wheels (and any other system that drops sleeves), if the prize is a sleeve that you already have, we randomly select another outcome.

Malcain
04-10-2015, 11:43 AM
You are. When we randomly select an outcome on the wheels (and any other system that drops sleeves), if the prize is a sleeve that you already have, we randomly select another outcome.
That may not be working as intended if this is supposed to be the case as I do remember getting sleeve results a couple of times that gave me nothing.

hex_colin
04-10-2015, 11:44 AM
That may not be working as intended if this is supposed to be the case as I do remember getting sleeve results a couple of times that gave me nothing.

That's in the distant past now. I have 1000's of rolls since it was fixed (months ago) without getting "bad" sleeve results.

ossuary
04-10-2015, 11:55 AM
I've spoken on the wheels of fate functionality before, but since Chark is actively reading this thread, this is probably a good time for me to put a few thoughts out as well.

First, some background. In addition to having over 1,000 spins to my name on the live servers, I also did a lot of test spinning when we were having the issue with the display on wheels rewards (before we knew it was just a display issue, and not the wheels failing to pay out some prizes entirely). In total, I've spun the wheels over 5,000 times. I also happen to be quite interested in things like game theory, the psychology of addiction, and other gambling-related intellectual topics.

If the stated goal of the wheels of fate (being a gold sink) is accurate, then in its current form it does not do what it needs to do - or, at the least, it is far less effective than it could be. There are a couple of major reasons for that:

1. Some "win" spins are actually a complete waste, especially at higher levels of chest rarity, and as a result there are a lot of scenarios where the player is disincentivised to continue spinning. In fact, aside from a potential upgrade, ALL "winning" spins at the legendary level and most of them at the rare level are worth less than the cost of entry. You should never be in a situation where it's the best strategy for a player to stop paying gold and just hoard the chest.

2. Many of the spin results are visually a foregone conclusion as soon as the 2nd icon is displayed (and in some instances the 1st!). If your player is not always waiting to see what the next icon is going to be, you don't get a buildup of tension, and that reduces the overall thrill of a win. You want your player on an emotional roller coaster with highs and lows, and you don't get that as effectively if they're not waiting with baited breath for the 3rd icon to appear. You want the third icon to ALWAYS have a chance to give them (or cost them!) something good. The worst offender of this is mushrooms if you already have that rarity of sleeves, but any of the "fake" mismatched red icons is the same, as are having the first 2 icons be mismatched. You always know you've already lost, so there's no investment in the results anymore.

There are a couple of things that should be changed on the Wheels to improve the overall experience for the players, as well as making it more likely people will spend more gold on it.

1. All gold rewards should scale with level of chest rarity. It should ALWAYS be worth your time to get 1 gold icon. Currently, it feels like a slap in the face to get 1 gold icon on a legendary chest, and that's a bad feeling. It makes it less likely players will spin those chests. Instead of the current system, my research and number crunching suggests the following system would result in a higher total gold spend: 1x gold icon = half the cost to spin awarded, 2x gold icons = double the cost to spin awarded, 3x gold icons = triple the cost to spin awarded. In addition, 3x gold icons should continue to grant a paid respin on the chest for all spin results that don't have a rarity level to the reward (so if you get a sleeve, there's no respin, but if you get 3x gold on a chest upgrade, you can keep spinning the chest). To accommodate the lower payouts on common chests but much higher payouts on rare/legendary chests, the percent chance to get 2x or 3x gold icons could be very slightly reduced, but I don't think even that is necessary, since people are likely to just keep spinning their gold until they eventually run out with a better overall payout system egging them on. :)

2. Revamp the way the wheels show the spin results. Eye icons (respins) and gold icons should be able to appear in ANY slot, not just the first slot. The chance to win can be exactly the same, but players should always be holding on for that last icon to see if it pops up a winner (even if you get 2 mushrooms, and know you can't win the sleeves, you should still have a chance to get a paid respin or a gold icon). Keeping players interested in the spin results until the very end heightens the intensity of the experience and makes the subsequent payout (or failure) stronger, therefore encouraging more spins.

3. By the same token, you shouldn't always get 3x gold icons of the same type even if you have 2x gold already. You should be able to get a "normal" reward with a single or double gold icon on it (i.e. gold heart, gold heart, white heart for gold and a double upgrade, instead of gold heart, gold heart, white spider for just a 2500g and no more spins). You shouldn't only be getting 1 gold icon on an otherwise "losing" spin, either. The gold icons should basically be completely detached from the spin result itself, so you can always get a gold icon or two for bonus gold. These random extra wins are powerful boosts to the play experience, and strongly encourage players to keep playing.

I'm aware that these suggestions would require a fair amount of work to revamp based on how the wheels currently choose spin results and display them, but I believe making those changes would significantly improve the effectiveness of the wheels as a gold sink (plus make it more fun to boot). :)

Oli
04-10-2015, 12:05 PM
I also think the presentation is not optimal (same for the arena-loot).
Just take a look at the booster-opening from heartstone. You put that booster in place. Big sound, great firework, explosion, shiny cards are dancing on the screen and as you click on each of the cards you get even more explosions and firework. I just want to open another booster for the animations alone...
The rewards in Hex are ok if you open a booster, but for the rest its presented as interesting as an excel-sheet.
Esp. in the arena it's quite sad to see so many cool equipment after the match in such a boring table.

Jeevus
04-10-2015, 12:56 PM
You are. When we randomly select an outcome on the wheels (and any other system that drops sleeves), if the prize is a sleeve that you already have, we randomly select another outcome.

And that is exactly what i am trying to say. If i would get a result for sleeves i already have, lets say 3x reds, i will instead get another random result, not the win i wouldve gotten (the booster pack). This is basically less odds to get triple spins compared to an account who has no sleeves. Wouldn't it more fair to get another triple instead?

But that being said, as others pointed out, the whole thingy might need a revamp anyhow. Just wanted to get clarification regarding that sleeve thingy, thx alot Clark.

Ertzi
04-10-2015, 12:59 PM
I've spoken on the wheels of fate functionality before, but since Chark is actively reading this thread, this is probably a good time for me to put a few thoughts out as well.

*SNIP*



Ingenious suggestions. Very well thought-out ideas. I wholeheartedly agree with everything in this post. This would make spinning much more enjoyable and thrilling.

Yoss
04-10-2015, 01:05 PM
Add ultra jackpot extra spin when you hit double upgrade on legendary. Make it one of those always counting jackpots that go up until won.

knightofeffect
04-10-2015, 01:05 PM
Ingenious suggestions. Very well thought-out ideas. I wholeheartedly agree with everything in this post. This would make spinning much more enjoyable and thrilling.

Hear, hear oss. Great stuff.

Xenavire
04-10-2015, 01:07 PM
Having had discussed these exact thigns with Oss before, he has my full support. I may spin my chests, but I don't get much pleasure out of it, and I have all but stopped since the AA's for gold were introduced.

Ertzi
04-10-2015, 01:27 PM
Add ultra jackpot extra spin when you hit double upgrade on legendary. Make it one of those always counting jackpots that go up until won.

Interesting idea. Would this jackpot be available to all players (think about the Vegas slot machines that have 200 million or something on the counter, going up constantly) or would it be exclusive just for you? I kind of like the idea of an insane jackpot that everyone would vie for at the same time. People would talk about the pot while it was increasing, and the big wins would be discussed for a long time and would become mythical lore. Think about how much this would increase gold spending through spinning as well when there was a huge jackpot up for grabs. No idea how it would work in practice though.

Yoss
04-10-2015, 02:58 PM
Shared jackpot. Think mega millions

nicosharp
04-10-2015, 03:03 PM
Shared jackpot. Think mega millions
I'd rather get struck by lightning :p

ossuary
04-10-2015, 03:04 PM
That was another thing I had thought of, but forgot to mention. Spins on Primal chests that normally reward an upgrade should award big gold payouts instead - there should be no such thing as an unrewarding win spin. That way, it's always a thrill to have and spin a primal. I once had a primal chest that I spun SEVEN upgrade or double upgrades on in a row before finally spun 500 gold on it and locked it - what a huge disappointment. That should have been an amazing experience but instead it was just a giant bummer. As long as your chest is not rolling a "final" result, it should always be worth your time (and interest) to keep spinning. That's part of what the huge cost of admission to upgrade legendary chests should bring.

It might seem counter-intuitive on the surface to have legendary and primal chests reward so much gold since the intended purpose of WoF is to drain gold out of the economy, but think about how many legendary chest rolls you're going to encourage people to blow gold on in the HOPES of getting one of those super rare 4x gold payouts (or the even rarer primal gold payouts). Right now, only crazy people like me would even THINK of spending 30K to roll a legendary chest, and I do so with no pleasure whatsoever but only in the slim hope of bumping up my number of primal chests.

Changing the reward system in the way I've suggested will actually consume FAR more gold in the end than it ever gives out, but those ultra lucky players can get a nice payout from it, and everyone else will keep going in the hopes of getting the payday.

Malcain
04-10-2015, 04:06 PM
To throw my opinion in on a few things:

I see a problem with a lotto style jackpot on the wheel of fate as that would make your average player want to save his rolls until the jackpot is big enough, which in turn would make the jackpot itself move slower and would create blitz periods where everyone rolls all of their chests at the same time as the potential reward has suddenly jumped. This turns the wheel of fate into a time dependent counter-intuitive thing rather than a nice flashy gold sink and would create wild swings in the value of gold depending on whether it's roll like a mad man time or not.

I do agree that it'd be nice to have actual rewards for chest upgrade results on primal chests, and with most of Ossuary's suggestions in general, but gold is probably the wrong reward substitution as deflation of the currency is the point of gold sinks and turning gold generation up too much risks undermining the goal. I think a better reward would be a brand new chest, (common for one upgrade or uncommon for two upgrades) which both feels good and continues to deflate gold rather than inflating it.

As far as what else to spend gold on goes, my current suggestion is actually rare and legendary cards if you can find a good deal, which I have more than a few times(I once purchased two 700 plat legendaries for 55k gold each for example). AA cards are not a bad option if you want a set or are trying to convert gold to plat as they have a good gold to plat ratio(at least they did when I wrote this post and me stating this fact may well drive their price down), but I'd personally rather expand my collection, not that there's anything wrong with making it look fancier. Though you should also have platinum if you do plan on buying cards as being able to take advantage of whatever deal comes along is a much better bet in the long run, and don't be afraid to place bids. I also suggest avoiding over-inflated cards like Reese, Monsuun, and especially Wrathwood Master Moss at the moment.

ossuary
04-10-2015, 04:39 PM
I do agree that it'd be nice to have actual rewards for chest upgrade results on primal chests, and with most of Ossuary's suggestions in general, but gold is probably the wrong reward substitution as deflation of the currency is the point of gold sinks and turning gold generation up too much risks undermining the goal. I think a better reward would be a brand new chest, (common for one upgrade or uncommon for two upgrades) which both feels good and continues to deflate gold rather than inflating it.

This is a very interesting suggestion, and not one that had crossed my mind. I like it. It would certainly encourage more spending rather than adding gold to the system (although, if chest contents are good enough, it could lead to other problems to make it too easy to produce additional chests without paying money for packs).

You're right that it could theoretically cause a small amount of gold deflation to have the WoF reward more gold, but in my opinion the increased activity on the wheels would more than make up for this (and CZE could control the dial on the win percentages of the gold icons to fine-tune how much gold it gave out, to make sure it's still ending up as a net removal of gold from the market).

I definitely agree with you on the mega millions idea, though, that's an absolutely terrible idea (sorry guys). That would definitely have the opposite effect to the stated goals.

Yoss
04-10-2015, 05:10 PM
Then why do casinos do it if it doesn't work?

Xenavire
04-10-2015, 05:25 PM
Then why do casinos do it if it doesn't work?

I don't think the comparison is exactly the same there - its more like the lottery, where some people buy tickets every week, but sometimes there are people who buy in just because of the jackpot. Now, the spikes in activity would be great for the game, but the lulls would be less great, and I think that is the complaint.

With casino's, at least everyone going there to gamble, so the decision to invest is made ahead of time - there are plenty of people who never go, which is a lot like people just not buying lottery tickets. (I hope this doesn't sound stupid, because I don't typically gamble - I am making a few educated guesses to fill in minor gaps in my knowledge.)

Malcain
04-10-2015, 05:43 PM
Then why do casinos do it if it doesn't work?
It works for casinos because their goals are very different for slot machines than it is for the wheel of fate. Slots are money making entertainment ventures, so showy things that attract customers like lotto style payouts that go up as players play and encourage more spending are exciting and generate interest, which makes them more money. Effectively people are paying the casino for a form of entertainment.

Chest rolls, on the other hand, are gold sinks that work best if the person using it is making a profit in the form of material goods. It plays a strong deflationary roll in the system that makes gold a more desirable commodity. If the demand for gold cycled thanks to a lotto reward system, then it would have a less stable price and confidence in it as a currency would probably even cause inflation.

Yoss
04-10-2015, 06:03 PM
A casino's goal is to take customer money as fast as possible and keeping them happy while it happens. Gold sinks in games are exactly the same.

TOOT
04-10-2015, 06:16 PM
A progressive jackpot (the term you are all looking for), is a great idea.

Have 1% of the gold cost of each spin made be added to a progressive pool. You can hit a share of the jackpot from each chest. Say 5% of jackpot for common, 10% for UC, 25% for Rare, 50% for legendary and 100% on primal. Have the progressive roll come out say once every 500-1000 spins made on the wheel, regardless of what type of chest was rolled.

If that 1 roll out of 1000 was a rare chest they get 25% of what the progressive is currently at.

Xenavire
04-10-2015, 06:32 PM
You know, I just had a thought - what if they concealed the jackpot? Have it be some undisclosed amount, and let people roll chests trying to proc it... The only way anyone would know if it had been hit is if the winner stampeded into chat and announced it to all the world.

Also, TOOT has an interesting take on it that I would not hate.

Malcain
04-10-2015, 07:11 PM
A casino's goal is to take customer money as fast as possible and keeping them happy while it happens. Gold sinks in games are exactly the same.
A casino's goal is to be a profitable enterprise, and speed of liquidation of capital actually works against customer happiness. The odds on all fast casino games like slots and blackjack are actually set close to 50% to prolong the amount of time it takes a customer to lose their money. A customer that loses their cash quickly is not going to have a good time and is unlikely to come back to play again.

Gold sinks like the wheel of fate have two different goals; deflation of gold and making gold a desirable commodity to players who buy packs so low investment and free players can purchase pay product in exchange for their gold, which is mostly useless to them otherwise. It's a system meant to transfer extra cards big money players have no use for to small investment players in exchange for cool trinkets like sleeves and alternate art cards. The end goal is a stable currency that can be gathered for free. There is no profit to be made directly in gold as Hex both generates and destroys this currency, but to keep gold as a healthy medium of exchange so new players can gather lower rarity cards more easily. Hex has already made it's profit in the pack you had to open before you ever spun the chest. If they wanted to use it to generate money, it would cost platinum directly to spin chests and it would be ignored by most of the player base as a consequence.

A jackpot would disrupt both wheel of fate goals by keeping gold from leaving the system during some periods, which would lead to inflation, followed by periods of high demand and rapid deflation. This makes for a terrible marketplace in general and will hurt the experience for new players, especially if they take a look at the market during a period of inflation. It also destroys confidence in the currency which will cause it to artificially inflate as people are less and less sure of it's actual value.

A concealed jackpot, on the other hand, as Xenavire suggested, addresses this concern and might be neat, though it'd have to be an all or nothing payout style to prevent people from using lesser percentage payouts to estimate it's value and thus defeat the purpose.

TOOT
04-10-2015, 07:27 PM
Under what I proposed, 1% of the gold being sunk into rolling chests would be dispersed back into the economy. It is hardly preventing gold from leaving the system. Anywhere between 12 and 300 gold would be added to the progressive jackpot each roll.

Obviously the numbers or %'ages can be tweaked to achieve the desirable effect, but it will do next to nothing to the gold economy as a gimmick for the WOF.

Malcain
04-10-2015, 07:37 PM
Under what I proposed, 1% of the gold being sunk into rolling chests would be dispersed back into the economy. It is hardly preventing gold from leaving the system. Anywhere between 12 and 300 gold would be added to the progressive jackpot each roll.

Obviously the numbers or %'ages can be tweaked to achieve the desirable effect, but it will do next to nothing to the gold economy as a gimmick for the WOF.
The gold being kicked back into the system isn't the problem. The problem is during periods where the jackpot is low, people would not want to spin their chests, which keeps the gold from leaving the system by it's natural course, and during periods when the jackpot is high, the currency will rapidly deflate as players try to come up with a large amount of quick gold so they can attempt to win big. This rapid change in the value of gold over short term periods would destroy confidence on the currency and inflate it.

The other issue is this would make the jackpot a thing that needs watching and would make chests less fun in general, as the current loose system that allows you to sit on them and roll at your leisure would be replaced by a higher stress clock watching one.

ossuary
04-10-2015, 08:11 PM
A casino's goal is to be a profitable enterprise, and speed of liquidation of capital actually works against customer happiness. The odds on all fast casino games like slots and blackjack are actually set close to 50% to prolong the amount of time it takes a customer to lose their money. A customer that loses their cash quickly is not going to have a good time and is unlikely to come back to play again.

Gold sinks like the wheel of fate have two different goals; deflation of gold and making gold a desirable commodity to players who buy packs so low investment and free players can purchase pay product in exchange for their gold, which is mostly useless to them otherwise. It's a system meant to transfer extra cards big money players have no use for to small investment players in exchange for cool trinkets like sleeves and alternate art cards. The end goal is a stable currency that can be gathered for free. There is no profit to be made directly in gold as Hex both generates and destroys this currency, but to keep gold as a healthy medium of exchange so new players can gather lower rarity cards more easily. Hex has already made it's profit in the pack you had to open before you ever spun the chest. If they wanted to use it to generate money, it would cost platinum directly to spin chests and it would be ignored by most of the player base as a consequence.

A jackpot would disrupt both wheel of fate goals by keeping gold from leaving the system during some periods, which would lead to inflation, followed by periods of high demand and rapid deflation. This makes for a terrible marketplace in general and will hurt the experience for new players, especially if they take a look at the market during a period of inflation. It also destroys confidence in the currency which will cause it to artificially inflate as people are less and less sure of it's actual value.

A concealed jackpot, on the other hand, as Xenavire suggested, addresses this concern and might be neat, though it'd have to be an all or nothing payout style to prevent people from using lesser percentage payouts to estimate it's value and thus defeat the purpose.

I was just about to make a post explaining why everything Yoss said about jackpots and casinos was inaccurate and based on false assumptions, and here you already explained it all perfectly. Kudos. :)

I don't know what I think about the concealed jackpot idea, in general I'm not a fan of that sort of thing, but it could be okay if it's handled properly. People would definitely try to find a way to estimate the value, and that would just lead to it being the same as any other lottery / jackpot as soon as someone starts tracking it, and you get the same net result. It COULD be made to work, but I think the other suggestions would better serve the goal without making things overly complicated, risky, or potentially unstable.

You are 100% correct that gold needs to be fairly stable. It's a hard goal to hit, and it's something CZE is going to have to monitor carefully whenever they adjust one of the many dials, but doing so will be critical to having a healthy economy that allows for positive traffic on both ends.

Yoss
04-10-2015, 08:14 PM
Good insights. I like the idea to spawn lower chests off of extra upgrades. That would replace the jackpot idea to fill in the dead rolls

IronPheasant
04-10-2015, 08:17 PM
Yeah, it is basically setting what the gold/platinum ratio is. I'm impressed it's as close to the 100:1 mark as it is.


The odds on all fast casino games like slots and blackjack are actually set close to 50%

The rate of return on slots are actually mandated by law in most places. At lowest, around 75%.

As some trivia, the only game in any casino paying out above 100% is Deuces Wild Video Poker. With perfect play and an enormous bankroll to straddle the time between royal flushes... you can make comparable money to working in Amazon's online sweat shop, maybe.

hex_colin
04-10-2015, 11:07 PM
There's a subtle difference from it having some of the characteristics of gambling (the slot machine motif) and actually being gambling (having some sort of jackpot). We'll never see it become actual gambling. Guaranteed.

bootlace
04-11-2015, 01:17 AM
I agree with Colin that inputing such blatant gambling elements into an international TCG that's probably already going to be under the microscope in certain areas in terms of gambling laws is probably not the best idea - blatant being the key operative word.

In terms of making the Wheel of Fate a more attractive gold sink I have a few ideas, one of which I partially shared already sometime back in my ambitiously titled thread "Mercenaries: The Key to Make This a Billion Dollar Franchise (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=37916)" but here it is again:

You could theoretically put anything in the Wheel of Fate and Kismet, as the Primal of Luck, would always have a chance to upgrade it. Lore/flavor wise the concept of desperate adventurers praying to her to turn their fortunes around is suitable.

However having people mindlessly gamble on something like upgrading their normal booster to a Primal booster (forgetting for a second that it would overly facilitate gold to plat conversion which isn't the goal) is a rather shallow experience (akin to traditional gambling) where the devs will simply adjust the EV somewhere even (when compared to just selling that gold required to roll) and all you have is this white or black all-or-nothing gamble, which is either 100% fun or 100% unfun.

So we need an area where the outcomes are much more spread out, and also where personal preferences can lead different people to react in different ways to outcomes. We also need this roll to have some purpose within the general framework of the game. I believe the area is mercenaries. So my idea without further sugercoating it is simple: players can place some special item in the WoF (lets say its a golden egg for now) and pay the standard rolling fee of X0,000 gold lets say and out comes a random mercenary.

Last time I mentioned how Japanese mobile games are using this technique termed 'gacha' to huge success, with Puzzle and Dragons eclipsing a billion dollars in annual revenue. The trend is still going strong as now a game called Monster Strike is using the same technique and is itself close to the billion dollar revenue mark. I'm not going to dwell too much on whether opening a egg and getting a random mercenary is fun or not, it's a proven concept and even if you don't want to personally take part in it, a lot of people will.

So why mercenaries you might be asking? First of all we have this 'problem' of limited/exclusive mercenaries given out in conventions which in their current state of planned implementation will slowly go extinct, which I and many others are against. The plan is to have them available within the game at certain points too, but while I really want to avoid this discussion again, the idea of a one off limited window of opportunity to acquire these important items doesn't sit well with me. So I'd like all mercenaries to be available at all times (even if it is at very low chances) through this mercenary 'gacha'. They can make promotional events so that during certain periods certain mercenaries have a higher chance to roll (which would work well for the time during the conventions where they want to let online players have it too). The promotional events could lead to some gold/egg hoarding so some tweak would be required to make that part work.

So far we've established that it's fun, it's an interesting mechanism to allow 'exclusive' mercenaries to still be available in some form for really desperate people, and we can also agree that overall even with a not so great mercenary you still won't have that totally empty feeling you do when rolling a blank legendary chest.

I also believe as mentioned in the aforementioned thread, that this mechanism would also help in the new player acquisition/retention process. We could give one free account-bound (mercenaries will be account-bound once used anyways) golden egg to new players once they've completed the starter trials or something along those lines (maybe even use it more aggressively in promotional campaigns to acquire players).

From personal experience with these type of games, newbies always flock to message boards or subreddits asking the veterans whether the egg 'roll' they got was a good one. I don't have any stats to back it up, but that effort of reaching out to the community and most often getting a positive welcome and receiving info/tips/guidance, increase that player's likelihood of sticking around and trying the game out as they've made a time and emotional investment, even if they haven't yet made a financial one.

Lafoote
04-11-2015, 04:05 AM
Seems like rolling an upgrade on a primal should award a legendary, and a double upgrade should give another primal. You'd be spending a ludicrous amount of gold on the spin, who wants a common chest for that?

Yoss
04-11-2015, 09:16 AM
At post 52, I agree with the problem statement (excusive mercs going extinct) but there is a much simpler solution. Do not bind on use.

zadies
04-11-2015, 10:09 AM
You should be thankful that mercs have been made tradable at all. They should never have been made tradable.

Xenavire
04-11-2015, 10:13 AM
You should be thankful that mercs have been made tradable at all. They should never have been made tradable.

The original design was horrible. The only reason people tolerate bound sleeves is because they are cosmetic.

sukebe
04-11-2015, 11:31 AM
I have said it before and I will say it again: I love the bind on use mercs and am very glad they have decided on this system :-)

On Topic: Thank you for the post op, it was well done. I do not think we need to worry about how worthwhile spin results are until we can open the chests as that is a big part of this system. I have a feeling that once we see what can be won in each of the different rarity chests we will be much happier to throw our gold at spinning them.

Also, put me down as another person who feels we do not need a jackpot result for the spins.

ForgedSol
04-11-2015, 09:19 PM
Not 100% on topic, but I did want to address some issues I've had with the whole Wheel of Fate system. I'm sure this has been said before, but whole concept of spinning chests could use some changes. It is hard to imagine it being more unintuitive.

A chest being used like a coin in a slot machine? That makes no sense.

But it doesn't get used up? That doesn't make sense.

Those symbols on the side? Doesn't make sense! Not if you don't know what "spinning" means. Also, it ruins the asthetic of the whole magic fountain page.

I avoided "spinning" chests for the longest time because I had no idea what that meant. It costs resources and I didn't know if I'd be throwing it away or not because the game gives you no context for what it's all about. Then when I learned that chests were like slot machine coins, I had to make absolutely sure that it's not a trade off. "You can open this chest or you can take a gamble to try and get better rewards." I kept on thinking people were explaining it wrong. With no risk at losing the chest, of course I'll try spinning them if I have the gold. That's a no-brainer.

But when you get told it's like a slot machine, in my head it implies I lose the chest, and not lose an etheral feature of the chest that has no visual representation in the game other than being a category called "spin."

It would be far simpler and intuitive if every chest just came with a "Spin Coin," and "Chest Upgrade Tickets" were some of the prizes.

But if they want to keep, "This chest is also a slot machine coin" and the prizes as "Destroy This Chest. Gain a Chest of One Level Higher Rarity as the Destroyed Chest." They could still make improvements.

1) Remove the Spin Table on the left unless a chest is actually being spun. It's ugly and pointless if all you're doing it dropping packs in the fountain.

2) Make the "Spin chest" visually distinct from the "No Spin" chests. Make them sparkle or shiny or something. So it's easy to just scroll down to see if you have any spinnable chests in your inventory.

3) What does the "H" on the chests even mean? Can we replace that with the Set Symbol? The font on the left of the packs is dark. And even if that text was brighter why make users take all these extra steps.

Right now we have to scroll down and make sure we're in the Pay Spin area of the page and not the No Spin area, find the correct rarity of chest we want to spin (which is easy to do because of the color), and then look to the left of the image to make sure we're grabbing the chests of the right set we want to spin.

If the spinnable chests were shiny (or visually distinct from non-spinnable chests in some other way), scrolling down to find a shiny, green chest, with Set 1's symbol on it is one simple step with all the information in one spot. It's just Look for Image, then Spin Chest, rather than Look for Text for Spinnable Status, Find Image of Right Rarity, Look at Text for right Set, and then Spin Chest.

Also, it's be nice if the game just gave away a free common spin as part of the tutorial or the first time you reach the fountain page or something. If they want to keep the weird, unintuitive of Chests with a Disposable Slot Machine Coin Feature (That you lose if you open the chest?), then at least giving away a free common spin and walking players through it would help a lot in making it all make sense. Seeing it in action helps a lot. Seeing strange symbols and reading meaningless terminology without context puts up red flags.

Oli
04-11-2015, 10:11 PM
Right now we have to scroll down and make sure we're in the Pay Spin area of the page and not the No Spin area, find the correct rarity of chest we want to spin (which is easy to do because of the color), and then look to the left of the image to make sure we're grabbing the chests of the right set we want to spin.


Why are the no-spin chests in the wheel of fate screen visible at all?
Is there anything I can do with them?

Malcain
04-11-2015, 10:56 PM
Why are the no-spin chests in the wheel of fate screen visible at all?
Is there anything I can do with them?
Chests will open on that screen like packs do when that feature gets implemented, probably with similar bells and whistles. I expect it to be mildly amusing for the first 50 or so chests and then for it to get annoying past that. Hopefully they put an open multiple chest button in the game like they did with packs.

ossuary
04-12-2015, 04:45 AM
3) What does the "H" on the chests even mean? Can we replace that with the Set Symbol?

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess... HEX? ;)


Right now we have to scroll down and make sure we're in the Pay Spin area of the page and not the No Spin area, find the correct rarity of chest we want to spin (which is easy to do because of the color), and then look to the left of the image to make sure we're grabbing the chests of the right set we want to spin.

There's a giant filter button at the bottom. You can filter down to just packs, just chests, filter by rarity, and even choose which set to display. If it's really that hard for you to tell the two icons apart (they're the same icons as the cards have), use the filters.

And as an aside, the chests all look the same because it's the same graphical icon, with different color schemes. There's no need to inlay the set icon into the chests directly, it's fine to have them on the side. That being said, Cory already mentioned in the past that the look and feel of the chests will change with each block, so we'll most likely be seeing a slightly different appearance of chests next set anyway, unless those plans have changed.

ForgedSol
04-12-2015, 11:23 AM
That's a good limb to go out on. Maybe it's that there's a disparity between the chest "H" and the "H" on the tray icon. That's the one I see a lot more than the Hex Shards of Fate "H". That's weird that they're different.

And the filter system is nice. That will be important as more sets come out. I didn't notice. But I wouldn't call the current system "fine." I'd say it's serviceable which I'd consider to be a step below fine. It will do what it's supposed to do and isn't just broken or anything. But so much effort has gone into the aesthetic of that page that the current system feels rather mechanical while some tweaks could reduce the amount of mechanical steps needed to make while at the same time make it more aesthetically pleasing.

It is good to hear that the different blocks will have new looks to the chest though. That's a good example of what I'm talking about in helping to remove some of the mechanical nature of the menu an incorporate it in a more natural and visually distinct way. The inventory is also servicable when looking through what chests I have, how many, and of what set. Having the different blocks look different will have some of that information will be instantly processed at a glance without having to put in needless extra effort.

It's not about it being too hard, but about a way to get rid of needless effort when there are better methods.

ossuary
04-12-2015, 11:54 AM
Everything you say is true, it just needs to be tempered with 1) what they could afford at the time, and 2) what they had the time for at the time. All of this stuff will continue to get better and look better as time allows them to circle back and spend some time on polish... but right now, they're focusing all their efforts on getting promised features out the door (as they should be). Features are being left "good enough" for now... we'll get "amazing" later on. :)

magic_gazz
04-12-2015, 01:21 PM
The original design was horrible. The only reason people tolerate bound sleeves is because they are cosmetic.

I am still against them. I am in the minority though.

Xenavire
04-12-2015, 01:43 PM
I am still against them. I am in the minority though.

I did say tolerate and not love. :p

I'd like to be able to trade sleeves because RNG hates me, and there are way too many RNG sleeves. I could live with select ones being bound though. (I currently hate Uruunaz... It is RNG to find him, which I hate, but skill to beat him, which should be earned - it is a tough one. Otherwise it is all skill vs luck or events so far. I do have my Uruunaz sleeves too, which means I am purely concerned for others.)

If they could mitigate the horrible RNG screw-overs for sleeves, then I don't think any would need to be tradeable, but I think for now making the wheels sleeves tradeable would be very nice. I would happily trade off cards in bulk for those sleeves.