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Sparrow
04-15-2015, 12:05 AM
8-player sealed doesn't fire -- not because it's not asynchronous, and no, not because everyone would rather play draft, and sorry, no, it's not because we're in beta and there aren't enough players. It's none of those things.

It doesn't fire for the simple reason that the cost to enter does not reflect the cost of entry. All it would take to make it viable, imo, is raise the payout to 7 packs for 3 wins, and by one pack for each of the other win places AND lower the entry fee to 200 plat.

It's not going to suck an appreciable number of players from draft -- draft will have players forever. It will increase the rate 8-man sealed fires at and that's good for everyone.

I brought this issue up multiple times when I was using my old account, and the response was always a rationalization like, wait for asynch, or be patient it's still beta, or try to base the payout for sealed (which almost never fires) on draft, which fires constantly. I've heard all that out the ying-yang (you know what ying-yang is, right?.... I thought so (FC4 reference)).

So, yeah, that's where I'm at on this. Desperately want to play sealed, haven't been able to find a scheduled tourney time that's firing when I want to play, am willing to play 8-player with a little incentive.

Edit: As 'vapes correctly said below, the cost to enter 8-player sealed is only 200p so it's exactly twice the $$ cost, not more than as I asserted.

PureVapes
04-15-2015, 12:53 AM
The payouts and the cost are exactly double of draft. The entry fee is already 200 plat. Only the scheduled events are more rewarding than the regular queues. If they changed it we'd just have drafters complaining instead, albeit more legitimately since sealed would then be a strictly better average cost : prize ratio.

Gwaer
04-15-2015, 01:13 AM
Allowing you to use a draft ticket as half the entry fee for sealed would likely help the queue fire a lot more, but it'd also probably hurt draft queues a bit.

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 01:23 AM
The payouts and the cost are exactly double of draft. The entry fee is already 200 plat. Only the scheduled events are more rewarding than the regular queues. If they changed it we'd just have drafters complaining instead, albeit more legitimately since sealed would then be a strictly better average cost : prize ratio.
Yes, you're right, the entry is 200, was thinking of scheduled sealed.

The costs being exactly double is still irrelevant in that a person can play two drafts for the cost of one sealed. That's twice the entertainment time. A person has to spend double the amount of $$'s a drafter spends to get an equal amount of entertainment.

I personally don't think drafters would complain -- it's just a sky is falling assertion that's always trotted out when this subject comes up. And, 100% guarantee you that if drafters found their queues not firing and having to wait hours or days for an 8-player event, they'd want a modest prize increase as well. And be assured, what I'm recommending is the most modest of increases.

The attitude from drafters you are describing almost seems like, hey, I've got mine, so screw you. I don't see that happening. I have enough faith in the community that I think drafters would actually be happy for sealed players if they could get their queues firing more regularly by a tiny augmentation in payout.

So, that's the first common objection dealt with.

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 01:26 AM
Allowing you to use a draft ticket as half the entry fee for sealed would likely help the queue fire a lot more, but it'd also probably hurt draft queues a bit.
That's an interesting idea, however I agree with you on that. I don't think allowing a way to transfer draft tickets to sealed queues is helpful for CZE or drafters. I'm looking to raise the total number of people participating overall, not to have close to a 1-to-1 migration from one event type to another.

x78089
04-15-2015, 01:36 AM
Yes, you're right, the entry is 200, was thinking of scheduled sealed.

The costs being exactly double is still irrelevant in that a person can play two drafts for the cost of one sealed. That's twice the entertainment time. A person has to spend double the amount of $$'s a drafter spends to get an equal amount of entertainment.

I personally don't think drafters would complain -- it's just a sky is falling assertion that's always trotted out when this subject comes up. And, 100% guarantee you that if drafters found their queues not firing and having to wait hours or days for an 8-player event, they'd want a modest prize increase as well. And be assured, what I'm recommending is the most modest of increases.

The attitude from drafters you are describing almost seems like, hey, I've got mine, so screw you. I don't see that happening. I have enough faith in the community that I think drafters would actually be happy for sealed players if they could get their queues firing more regularly by a tiny augmentation in payout.

So, that's the first common objection dealt with.

I am not so sure you dealt with it so much as sidestepped it. I could reframe the argument and say that sealed is twice as efficient as draft and thus deserves a lower payout. The common mistake here is assuming that your reasons for playing are ubiquitous. It is highly unlikely that CZE is going to raise the payouts so as to permanently favor one format over another (my opinion is less concrete for limited periods of time). There has to be a better way to drive traffic to this format, as I personally would like to play it more often. In my mind this is where your first sentence is patently false. Asynch will drive traffic merely b/c many players don't have large blocks of time to draft. It is stated on these very forums day in and day out.

My advice is to wait until these options are in to cast stones.

Cernz
04-15-2015, 01:54 AM
i still think it would fire more often when they are asynch - many ppl. dont want to play swiss style tournaments (even swiss drafts dont fire that often) due to time issues - competitive (single elimination) tournaments finish faster than swiss ones.

i for my side would love to play more 8 man sealed, but i dont want to spend up to 3-4 hrs playing only 1 tournament. sure it could be much faster, but if there are some "new" or slower players in there (which most likey is the fact - beginnerst tend to play swiss tournaments) such a tournament takes ages to fnish.

ofc better rewards might compensate for time issues, but in the long run - asynch would be de deal (imm) ;)

BlackRoger
04-15-2015, 02:17 AM
I like sealed as a more simplistic entry into the format, and I tend to play it a bunch when a new set comes out.
Both as a way to learn the cards, and open more packs to build the initial collection.

That being said, sealed tends to be very bomb centric, and doesn't have the depth of drafts because alot of tribals just aren't good if you're deck isn't full of them.
So once people figure out the format you will see far less interest in sealed.

This is a natural progression, and you don't need to change anything or try to avoid it.
Sealed is never going to fire as much as draft, and I consider that a good thing.

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 03:21 AM
This is a natural progression, and you don't need to change anything or try to avoid it.
Sealed is never going to fire as much as draft, and I consider that a good thing.
That's the problem whenever I've brought this issue up, I get a bunch of straw man arguments -- and other fallacies.

No one is arguing that sealed should fire as often as draft -- straw man.

Nothing needs to be changed -- clearly, false, since CZE is leaving a lot of money in player's pockets and there are other people like myself that would play sealed if it was just slightly more worth the time.

Draft not firing as much as sealed is a good thing -- already covered that sealed will never fire as much, but asserting it's a good thing is a completely unsupported conclusion.

It's a "natural progression" (whatever that means) of players moving from sealed to draft over time -- this isn't Animal Kingdom so there's not some sort of "natural" progress involved. There are more than enough people, as a percentage of the TCG player base (based on my MTGO experience) that enjoy sealed but don't like draft. There are also plenty of people, even more I'd guess, but I can't back that up, that would enjoy playing draft AND sealed, but can't rationalize paying twice as much for an equal amt of entertainment given the current prize structure.

I just don't understand why this is an issue that results in so much BS in response whenever it comes up.

@Cernz -- yes, it may fire more often when asynch finally arrives, but it depends on how asynch is modelled. The model I've seen repeated ad nauseum on the forums is not one that would interest me, but it may interest others. More people entertained and CZE making more money is a good thing, so I support asynch regardless of it's form.

Edit: I know I'm coming at this hard, probably too hard, but this has been a problem with sealed from the beginning and I always get fed the same responses. I've just let it go in the past because I wasn't playing at all. But now, I'm playing every day and I want to see a change.

bootlace
04-15-2015, 03:23 AM
The main reason draft fires WAY more than sealed is because a large percenrage of the playerbase have had free weekly drafts. Those players who enter with plat and packs usually just gravitate to whichever queue is closest to firing,which naturally is draft. Its also better for new players because they spread out their investment. Id probably play as many sealed as draft if I could use ticket for both as Gwaer suggested - currently my ratio is more like 1 sealed for every 100 draft.

Asynch sealed is the perfect way to make the format popular, dont know why we should mess with the rewards as the people who want asynch sealed dont care as much about the rewards.

Khazrakh
04-15-2015, 03:36 AM
The rewards are fine, no need to change anything there.
Right now playing Sealed will take the longest of all options available and that's why it doesn't fire much.
Asynch will fix that :)

meetthefuture
04-15-2015, 03:50 AM
not because everyone would rather play draft

That's where your assumption have gone wrong

BKCshah
04-15-2015, 04:02 AM
That's the problem whenever I've brought this issue up, I get a bunch of straw man arguments -- and other fallacies.

Nothing needs to be changed -- clearly, false, since CZE is leaving a lot of money in player's pockets and there are other people like myself that would play sealed if it was just slightly more worth the time.

Your proposal to make it ‘worth’ the time was to increase the prize payout to be more than the draft queues. But it won’t be much, only 1 more pack for 3-0 and 1 more pack for each other win total (6 more packs). So you’ve added 7 packs to the payout. So prize support has jumped from 24 to 31 packs for the same 1600 plat (66 plat/pack to 55 plat/pack payout).

However, swiss draft isn’t worth the ‘time’ anymore. It takes longer to play a swiss draft than a swiss sealed due to the drafting assuming matches are the same length. Why shouldn’t swiss drafters get even more increased payout for their time?

The payouts are reasonable. Sure - if you increased it, more people would play, but then you’d have other people complaining about how their favorite queue doesn’t get enough prize support.

** EDIT: I would agree that they should change the time slot for sealed and constructed every week to make it more friendly for people to join the 128 man events.

Shippal
04-15-2015, 04:18 AM
I'm a player who has put a little money into this game (not much by any standards) and my original intent was to mainly be a PvE player. That being said, I always have some packs on hand because I know that the packs work well for tournaments.

When I look at the limited tournament types, I just can't choose to play Sealed, even when it's close to firing.


My reasons not to play Sealed (compared with Draft):

- High cost of entry: Sealed costs 200 Plat + 6 packs. That's $14 to enter a tournament. That is pretty much as much as I spend every time that I even put money into the game.

- Limited entertainment value: With Draft, you are paying for multiple different types of entertainment. You are not only getting a limited tournament, but you are also getting the draft part itself. For me, actually choosing my cards for my deck, is worth the 100 platinum alone. Take into account the fact that I get 2 Drafts for the cost of 1 Sealed, and it's a pretty easy choice.

- Decks contain too high of variance: The actual Sealed games are less fun than Draft games because of the nature of Sealed--you are stuck with what 6 packs will get you. If you get no bombs, or all your potentially synergistic cards are split into too many shards, you're screwed. An opponent can just play all 1- and 2-drops of 2 of their colors and still beat you.


Now note, these reasons do not include the following:

- Too long to play: I actually like Swiss formats, and I feel it is a better value to play over Competitive, so the 3-4 hours isn't a problem to me.

- Rewards: The Sealed rewards are fine to me, and they make playing the format worth the time invested.

- Doesn't fire often: This is a symptom of the many downsides to playing Sealed vs other options. It is not a reason by itself.


So, I think you're wrong about the title of this thread. It is not rewards vs. cost, but rather cost vs. value. Draft is half the price, meaning I potentially get twice the enjoyment for the same money, and Draft is just more fun even if both formats cost the same amount. Other players may simply prefer Sealed over Draft, but I don't believe that I am alone with these opinions.

LNQ
04-15-2015, 04:41 AM
Each format should be geared towards a specific audience.

In limited, draft is and should remain as the most economical choice and the choice for most skill required.

Sealed is for those of us who have money to spend and like to gamble a bit more and have fun while doing it. As it is right now, the problem for this audience is that it comes with the price of being glued to your chair for the next 3 hours, which a lot of loose spenders might not have. Asynch sealed will make sealed what it is supposed to be.

Sealed shouldnt be the go to format for best reward structure because its more dependent on luck than draft.

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 04:48 AM
Sealed shouldnt be the go to format for best reward structure because its more dependent on luck than draft.
I just don't see a rush from draft to sealed with the modest prize increase I'm suggesting. What I do see is people spending money that isn't being spent now.

Applying prize payout amounts based on amount of luck involved is a completely arbitrary standard whereas modestly increasing prizes in the hopes that more people will spend money is basic economics.

BlackRoger
04-15-2015, 04:49 AM
I just don't understand why this is an issue that results in so much BS in response whenever it comes up.


I'm sorry my post offended you so much, this was not my intention.
Perhaps I haven't understood your request fully.
However if you're gonna use such attitude the moment someone disagrees with you, you aren't gonna get much constructive responses...

As for your arguments:
You say that sealed isn't enough value, even though it's as much reward per dolar spent, because it's not enough entertainment, but the way to fix this is to offer more reward?
Wouldn't offering more entertainment be the solution to that problem?

I think Cory already had an idea he called "leagues" where you could play as many matches as you want with your limited deck in a certain ammount of time, and perhaps that feature will replace sealed in time.
Now that would be a solution that would bring to par the "entertainment".

The second problem is that people will always compare things with what they know.
You said it's not enough value because it gives less fun for your money - compared to draft!
Well if you give better reward per $ in sealed, people will say: hey! draft is far less profitable - compared to sealed! draft rewards should be buffed!
And we will have the same problem and the same sort of threads all over again.

Also I was talking about progression, not evolution, no idea how "natural kingdom" comes in here.
But people tend to progress from simple formats to more complex ones, in hope of more complexity and new challenges.
That is both natural, and desirable.
I'm not saying that there aren't many people who like sealed, hell I like sealed.
But I also think it is a format that gets stale far faster due to the limited amount of valid tactics in it, and people will gravitate in time towards the more skill oriented draft formats.
That's why you see far more sealed launch at the start when set 2 released, and barely any now.

bootlace
04-15-2015, 05:03 AM
Applying prize payout amounts based on amount of luck involved is a completely arbitrary standard whereas modestly increasing prizes in the hopes that more people will spend money is basic economics.

Just throwing money at the problem is not the ideal way to go about solving it. Forcing EV conscious people to play sealed just because it has a higher payout is not good game design. People should play the format they want because they find it more fun or suitable for them. Asynch sealed will have enough properties to make it desirable over draft for certain people.

As for sealed having more variance - some people actually enjoy that. Especially if you're a new player this is your best chance to win because going up against veteran drafters you're likely to 'lose' before ever setting foot inside the match due to how much better other players' decks will be picked and constructed.

LNQ
04-15-2015, 05:14 AM
Applying prize payout amounts based on amount of luck involved is a completely arbitrary standard whereas modestly increasing prizes in the hopes that more people will spend money is basic economics.

As bootlace said, forcing EV conscious people to play Sealed is bad game design. You don't want to force these people to play a format that has more variance and less player input than the other big limited format.

The most competitive formats should enjoy the benefit of having the best price structure. The rest of the formats may either have an equal prize structure as they have now, or a worse price structure.

Sealed will come truly alive when it becomes asynch, not by increasing the prize structure a bit.

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 05:29 AM
The EV for sealed is worse than draft right now, so the theoretical EV conscious people that are being forced to play where the best EV is are presumably already playing draft. I expect that the impact on draft will be minimal, while a modest increase in prizes will bring people to the table that aren't currently playing.

And "throwing money" at the problem is just hyperbole. It's an extremely modest increase and even that seems like an exaggeration.

As far as what people "should" do to have fun goes, from my perspective I love playing sealed, it's the format that's the most fun to me, but I won't have fun with it because the value isn't there in terms of entertainment hours. I end up not participating which is a lose/lose for the community and CZE.

No argument with sealed being a more level playing field when it comes to skill. Nevertheless, you'll find there will be a subset of players that win more often than not, so it's far from a coin flip.

I just can't see myself going so far as to ever lobby against proposed improvements in formats I don't play. What's more I have a serious interest in asynch happening, but am totally not for the model that's been often linked to on the forums and probably would not play it, but I STILL support it happening if that's the model we end up with.

There have been players for more than a year now asking CZE to improve 8-player sealed payouts so they can spend more money on the game. There is no down side to this. Drafters aren't going to quit drafting because sealed has an almost imperceptibly better EV.

This is kind of reminding me of the debate over whether booster packs were considered part of the entry fee. It's a good example of how something so obvious can be misunderstood by the smartest people on the forums.

PureVapes
04-15-2015, 05:51 AM
I know that as a good comp draft player (~2.8 packs won per draft), I would switch to playing sealed 100% of the time if the rewards were increased. All of these firing issues should dissipate as the player base grows, though some real marketing would be necessary and that might not happen for a while.

On a side note, when people were discussing the removal of gold from PvP and wondering if it would be replaced with some other prize, the devs mentioned that they did not want to increase the already high value prize support for tournaments.

BKCshah
04-15-2015, 05:51 AM
So how exactly is the expected value worse? In 8 man sealed, each player pays 6 packs and 200 plat for a prize support of 24 packs. This is exactly twice the cost of entering a draft for twice the prize payout. The expected values are the same per random player in either event.

Almost a 30% prize increase is not modest by any standard.

The flat payout and time commitment are two reasons that the normal 8 mans don't fire. Actual prize support is not a major factor. Players of TCGs tend to be more competitive and like to feel that they are coming out ahead when they win an event. This also impacts the swiss draft queues fire rate.

Entertainment value is not something that can be put in concrete terms. It may be a personal factor, but it should not be compensated.

There have also been people requesting KS rewards come back in some form. Just because people ask for things does not mean that it is needed. CZE/Hex did change the prize support from the initial sealed design which I believe was 100 plat for 12 packs of prize support.

bootlace
04-15-2015, 06:20 AM
What's more I have a serious interest in asynch happening, but am totally not for the model that's been often linked to on the forums and probably would not play it, but I STILL support it happening if that's the model we end up with.

Which model are you referring to? Currently we have 0 details on what it will look like but I'm sure with all the data they have on hand, the community feedback they've received here, the proven popularity of something like Hearthstone Arena, and their personal experience as TCG gamers themselves they will figure out something that you will find enjoyable to play.

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 06:24 AM
So how exactly is the expected value worse? In 8 man sealed, each player pays 6 packs and 200 plat for a prize support of 24 packs. This is exactly twice the cost of entering a draft for twice the prize payout. The expected values are the same per random player in either event.
You are correct that the $ EV for both is -$4.66, however the hourly EV makes sealed twice as expensive.

Edit: Also, according to the tourney room, the cost to enter a 8-player sealed is 4 boosters + 600 platinum. Technically that makes sealed more expensive if you consider secondary market prices of boosters, but I won't argue that. It's more about the reward over time to me.

Maybe something to try would be a single elim sealed queue with the 24 boosters in prizes divided between 1st and 2nd place. 16/8. Really if the sticking point is it's not fair to drafters to raise the total prize pool, surely there could be no objection to CZE offering 8 player single elim sealed.

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 06:26 AM
Which model are you referring to? Currently we have 0 details on what it will look like but I'm sure with all the data they have on hand, the community feedback they've received here, the proven popularity of something like Hearthstone Arena, and their personal experience as TCG gamers themselves they will figure out something that you will find enjoyable to play.
It's the one that Yoss always spams. I haven't read it in months, so he may have changed it to something more agreeable. Don't really want to debate what type of asynch we end up with, though, just as long as we get it.

BKCshah
04-15-2015, 07:04 AM
What if I told you that the current sealed structure was more attractive to a certain player base? That player would get to open 6 packs and play an event in half the time it would take me to do 2 Swiss drafts. Time and entertainment value are different for each person.

You value longer play time for your entry fees, which is fine.

What if they offered 50/50 sealeds? You open 3 packs, get 3 phantom packs for 100 plat. Prize support is 12 packs. Now there's no difference in EV for money or time. Other than the absolute hilarity that would begin when someone got a phantom Monsuun or other money card, would this solve all the firing issue?

At the end of the day, sealed events are not as popular a format which is pretty much known from other TCGs. Yes, it would be nice if they fired more frequently, but there are many factors beside the prize support for why this doesn't happen.

I look forward to async sealed/leagues more than anything as this is where I learned to play TCGs. What I would like to see are massive leagues - Player pool - tbd. 5-10 matches per week count for record (1 per opponent). Additional matches can be played for tie-breaker points. Each week add pack(s) to your card pool. Prize support - tbd.

vickrpg
04-15-2015, 07:12 AM
You are correct that the $ EV for both is -$4.66, however the hourly EV makes sealed twice as expensive.

Edit: Also, according to the tourney room, the cost to enter a 8-player sealed is 4 boosters + 600 platinum. Technically that makes sealed more expensive if you consider secondary market prices of boosters, but I won't argue that. It's more about the reward over time to me.

Maybe something to try would be a single elim sealed queue with the 24 boosters in prizes divided between 1st and 2nd place. 16/8. Really if the sticking point is it's not fair to drafters to raise the total prize pool, surely there could be no objection to CZE offering 8 player single elim sealed.

Sealed is 6 packs and 200 plat on the tourney page.
if you don't have 6 packs it auto-converts the remaining 2 packs into plat for you, that's why you're seeing 4 and 600.

Vorpal
04-15-2015, 07:20 AM
The payouts and the cost are exactly double of draft.

Which means there are going to be fewer people interested in it. Imagine a queue with payouts and costs (including platinum) 10,000 times that of draft. Mathematically balanced, but unlikely to see much action.

ossuary
04-15-2015, 07:20 AM
Sparrow, you continue to mistakenly assume that what you personally want must be what everyone wants, and that how you see things is how everyone sees things. This is an extremely common fallacy. People disagreeing with you are not doing so because they are wrong, they are doing so because they see things differently, or have a different opinion. You're not going to win any points with anyone by continuing to insist that their failure to agree with you is just "rationalization."

You say that Sealed needs to be fixed because you could do two Drafts and get double the time enjoyment for the same money. On the other hand, Sealed is twice as efficient as Draft because you could open and win twice as many packs in half the time as doing 2 full Drafts. It all depends on which you value more, your time or your money. Right now, the cost to payout ratio between the two is even, and that's how it should be. Adding more prizes to one doesn't fix anything, it just changes the balance. In your example, it's a significant shift resulting in packs being generated for cheaper, and this would have an impact on the economy as a whole. It's not as cut and dry as you want to make it.

A solution for the problem is already in the works. Sealed is not convenient enough for a clearly significant portion of the player base who WOULD play sealed based on their personality / play type. Asynch WILL address that problem by making it so they can drop in and drop out whenever they have the time. It's foolish to attempt to retool the prize payouts or make any other changes before we see what asynch will do for the format. If asynch has been out for a few months and you still can't get a game going, that's an entirely different matter and it would be completely reasonable to review other factors at that point, but before that happens, talking about changing the payouts is wasted breath... CZE won't change it, and they shouldn't.

Cernz
04-15-2015, 07:23 AM
A solution for the problem is already in the works. Sealed is not convenient enough for a clearly significant portion of the player base who WOULD play sealed based on their personality / play type. Asynch WILL address that problem by making it so they can drop in and drop out whenever they have the time. It's foolish to attempt to retool the prize payouts or make any other changes before we see what asynch will do for the format. If asynch has been out for a few months and you still can't get a game going, that's an entirely different matter and it would be completely reasonable to review other factors at that point, but before that happens, talking about changing the payouts is wasted breath... CZE won't change it, and they shouldn't.

<3 ;)

Vorpal
04-15-2015, 07:27 AM
So how exactly is the expected value worse? In 8 man sealed, each player pays 6 packs and 200 plat for a prize support of 24 packs. This is exactly twice the cost of entering a draft for twice the prize payout. The expected values are the same per random player in either event.

I'm not sure that's true. If there is a gap between cost and payout (such that it is negative) then doubling both obviously makes the gap even greater.

If I have tournament A where I contribute 8 packs and win 2, then tournament B where I contribute 16 packs and win 4, my EV in tournament A is -6 and my EV in tournament B is -12. More broadly, if I break even on drafts and sealed, doing sealed as a hobby is twice as expensive as doing draft as a hobby as the platinum fee is doubled.

Svenn
04-15-2015, 07:50 AM
I'm not sure that's true. If there is a gap between cost and payout (such that it is negative) then doubling both obviously makes the gap even greater.

If I have tournament A where I contribute 8 packs and win 2, then tournament B where I contribute 16 packs and win 4, my EV in tournament A is -6 and my EV in tournament B is -12. More broadly, if I break even on drafts and sealed, doing sealed as a hobby is twice as expensive as doing draft as a hobby as the platinum fee is doubled.
That's not how it works. Expected Value isn't the value of your one prize payout, it's the average of all the payouts.

BKCshah
04-15-2015, 08:09 AM
I never said the cost was the same. The expected value for the entry fee is the same. Maybe I didn't word that 100% clearly.

Draft and sealed are negative sum games.

Let's say I have two accounts with 30 packs and 1000 plat each. One account is for sealed, and one account is for draft. The expected value of each account will be the same after completing 10 drafts and 5 sealeds.

An individual may get more enjoyment out of one vs the other, but the value of the accounts will be the same assuming all 'things' are equal. 'Things' includes player skill, luck, card value opened, etc.

Vorpal
04-15-2015, 08:22 AM
I never said the cost was the same. The expected value for the entry fee is the same. Maybe I didn't word that 100% clearly.

Draft and sealed are negative sum games.

Let's say I have two accounts with 30 packs and 1000 plat each. One account is for sealed, and one account is for draft. The expected value of each account will be the same after completing 10 drafts and 5 sealeds.

Right, and it will be less valuable with 10 sealeds than with 10 drafts. Therefore sealed is clearly not equal to draft, given both have a similar time commitment.

Asynch could change that.

As it is, if you like limited, and are budget constrained, you are better off forgoing sealed and getting twice the bang for your buck from drafts.

Basically a movie theater is charging $14 for one 4 hour movie and $7 for another 4 hour movie and wondering why they aren't selling many of the first type of ticket :D

BKCshah
04-15-2015, 08:24 AM
Again, you are adding a time value to it. That's a personal choice. Some people may value building their collection twice as fast over playing for twice as long.

Expected value is only related to the value of prizes and entry fee.

Vorpal
04-15-2015, 08:28 AM
Again, you are adding a time value to it. That's a personal choice.

Are you suggesting personal choices are invalid metrics to consider when evaluating why players do not participate in an activity?


Expected value is only related to the value of prizes and entry fee.

Right. The EV for 10 sealeds is worse than the EV of 10 drafts.

They are not equal.

bootlace
04-15-2015, 08:29 AM
As it is, if you like limited, and are budget constrained, you are better off forgoing sealed and getting twice the bang for your buck from drafts.

As it is, if you like limited, and are time constrained, you are better off forgoing draft and getting twice the bang for your time from sealed.

Vorpal
04-15-2015, 08:30 AM
As it is, if you like limited, and are time constrained, you are better off forgoing draft and getting twice the bang for your time from sealed.

No. If you are time constrained, you rare draft.

Sealed never fires.

Even if they did fire, both sealed and draft take the same amount of time, 4 hours. Sealed is not easier on your time budget than draft is.

Asynch sealed would make this statement true, however. I think making sealed asynch should happen before tinkering with the prize payouts.

bootlace
04-15-2015, 08:36 AM
Even if they did fire, both sealed and draft take the same amount of time, 4 hours. Sealed is not easier on your time budget than draft is.

In terms of cards/rewards acquired per unit of time, it is.

zadies
04-15-2015, 08:36 AM
You are correct that the $ EV for both is -$4.66, however the hourly EV makes sealed twice as expensive.


Some people actually like the efficiency so that is an incredibly loaded argument given the fact that you have a number of players saying that they will play sealed when it goes async.

Vorpal
04-15-2015, 08:48 AM
In terms of cards/rewards acquired per unit of time, it is.


The EV is negative. And of course, you are leaving out rare drafting.

noragar
04-15-2015, 08:57 AM
The $ EV is only -$4.66 if you tear up all your cards at the end of the draft/sealed. If you keep or sell your cards, the $ EV becomes very close to zero. If you're an above average player, then your $ EV can be positive.

IronPheasant
04-15-2015, 09:00 AM
The huge cost of entry for at most all of three teeny tiny games pretty much puts the knife in it for me. If it were 30 or so games, like, say, some kinda league, I'd be in it a couple times a year.


- Decks contain too high of variance: The actual Sealed games are less fun than Draft games because of the nature of Sealed--you are stuck with what 6 packs will get you. If you get no bombs, or all your potentially synergistic cards are split into too many shards, you're screwed. An opponent can just play all 1- and 2-drops of 2 of their colors and still beat you.

Yeah I hear this all the time from people and it's nice to have the illusion of control I guess.

With my wonderful luck, it sometimes goes like the last one did: guy to my left's in blood and red, guy to my right is in tricolor humans, I get passed all of ~14 playable cards, but they're in all five different colors. My deck ends up about 60% as strong as an average sealed freaking deck, my opponents have better than a sealed deck, and I get to discover I passed a Geode to a guy that opened a War Prodigy. Another opponent had a Fissuresmith that 2 for 1'd me.

My rares? A Droo's Relentless Fist, Parallel Evolution, and Resurrection sitting in the side board. If I didn't care about economic value, I would have passed all of them of course.

... I guess this is a rant about why I actually do prefer sealed and would rather play it. Either way luck is still a factor. But at least in sealed I'm nearly guaranteed to have some removal in my pool with some playables in that color.


And of course, you are leaving out rare drafting.

The last refuge of a man with a single Monkey of the Nine Tails as his "removal" yeeess

Funny that the Spirit Dance I was passed was the only remotely playable rare. Could have been actually a passable janky little green-blue deck if I had more draw engines besides Research Librarian. And had some cards good enough to stall long enough to get there. And any green cards whatsoever.

Badmoonz
04-15-2015, 09:08 AM
1. Remove the platinum cost for entry.
2. Rename the tournament to "Pack opener tournament".
3. Remove the queue. As soon as you enter you make a deck with your supplied packs.
4. You choose when to play and get matched up against others who have entered the tournament.
5. Play four matches (or some other amount) and then collect a small reward based on number of wins, or withdraw at your leisure.

vickrpg
04-15-2015, 09:22 AM
1. Remove the platinum cost for entry.
2. Rename the tournament to "Pack opener tournament".
3. Remove the queue. As soon as you enter you make a deck with your supplied packs.
4. You choose when to play and get matched up against others who have entered the tournament.
5. Play four matches (or some other amount) and then collect a small reward based on number of wins, or withdraw at your leisure.

Removing the cost of entry is a no-go. PVP should be paid to enter, especially if it generates prizes (it can't make them out of nothing, CZE would lose money.)

I like the Async suggestion, but it's been made before. I would say Give the option to pay an extra 50 plat and not require packs. Generate "phantom" packs and make a deck from those, participate as normal. you keep prizes. phantom and regular sealed players play in the same queue.

bootlace
04-15-2015, 09:27 AM
The EV is negative. And of course, you are leaving out rare drafting.

EV is still equal to or better than any other alternatives to acquire cards. What does rare drafting have to do with this?

BKCshah
04-15-2015, 09:32 AM
Ok. Last attempt at logic. Then it will be onto name calling. That's the standard progression here, correct?

Time is a factor that every individual must evaluate based on their own personal life situations. Swiss draft will give you twice the game play as sealed for the same entry fees. However, drafting will take twice as long to build a collection compared to playing sealed. This is a player dependent factor. Each person must determine what is more important to them.

The Expected Value for the entry fee is the same. Both are negative. The following shows the EV for each event compared to the entry fee (1 Draft Ticket or 3 packs + 100 plat). . For doing these evaluations, all players and results are equal. Example: 8 events are simulated, each player will place 1st – 8th exactly one time.

Draft: 12 packs for 8 draft tickets –Per Player EV = (3 opened packs + 1.5 packs)/ticket.
Sealed: 24 packs for 16 draft tickets – Per Player EV = (6 opened packs + 3 packs)/2 tickets.

The player is getting the exact same expected value per draft ticket whether playing sealed or draft. Let’s put it another way. If a player wants to break even in draft, 3 packs open cards = 1.5 sealed packs + 100 plat. This is exactly the same break even point for sealed.

As other have stated, if the EV was higher in sealed, they would likely play it exclusively.

Yes, one could rare draft which would increase the value of ‘opened’ packs for draft, but it would likely negatively impact the packs won per draft. However again, all players are considered equal, so this is not a factor in the math.


I like the Async suggestion, but it's been made before. I would say Give the option to pay an extra 50 plat and not require packs. Generate "phantom" packs and make a deck from those, participate as normal. you keep prizes. phantom and regular sealed players play in the same queue.

So for 250 plat, I get to build a deck where if I win one match, I have made at least 50 plat. It can only go up from there. Not saying the idea is terrible, but the price point is. I do not know what a reasonable price point would be for this. I'm still looking forward to the first constructed queue ring that gets formed in Hex. It'll happen sooner or later.

MatWith1T
04-15-2015, 09:33 AM
1. Remove the platinum cost for entry.
2. Rename the tournament to "Pack opener tournament".
3. Remove the queue. As soon as you enter you make a deck with your supplied packs.
4. You choose when to play and get matched up against others who have entered the tournament.
5. Play four matches (or some other amount) and then collect a small reward based on number of wins, or withdraw at your leisure.

If you don't have to pay to enter, then there is nothing to fund the rewards.

bootlace
04-15-2015, 09:34 AM
Nice summary BKCshah

Steelio
04-15-2015, 09:43 AM
For me Sealed is an abomination, for the simple reason that I get an absolutely shocking card pool. I might get really good cards in two colours, but not enough to make a deck with. So I have to go tri shard. But only have shard fixing for the colour with cavern scouts and cavern guards with fish hands and zodiac shamans. It sucks. So I can't go tri-shard [which I generally love to do] because of the fixing. And I can't go dual shard because I don't have enough cards in the chosen colours. So there is literally no point in even joining one, for this very reason. [Has happened in 4 out of 5 sealed tournies so far.]

Gwaer
04-15-2015, 09:46 AM
Just wanted to say the reason I prefer sealed is its efficiency. I have thousands of set 1 packs still because I can't draft enough to open them. I wish sealed had fired more so I could put a dent into those packs, I value efficiency over playing more, since I have more packs to open than time to play

vickrpg
04-15-2015, 09:47 AM
So for 250 plat, I get to build a deck where if I win one match, I have made at least 50 plat. It can only go up from there. Not saying the idea is terrible, but the price point is. I do not know what a reasonable price point would be for this. I'm still looking forward to the first constructed queue ring that gets formed in Hex. It'll happen sooner or later.
my price point was arbitrary and I've no attachment to it. I just think it should be much less than the cost of 6 packs (and probably less than the cost of 1 pack IMO) since your original 200 already pays for prize support. This may make it remove less packs from the economy, but I think that the increased ammount of sealed that would fire (and the additional plat being pure CZE profit) would offset it enough to be worth it. I'm no economist though. I think that what makes sealed so expensive and unattractive (to me) is the cost of the packs, not the entry fee.

And I personally would rather use my packs for (rare) drafting to fill my collection more efficiently. I never sealed because it seems like a waste of packs to me.

MatWith1T
04-15-2015, 09:52 AM
Just wanted to say the reason I prefer sealed is its efficiency. I have thousands of set 1 packs still because I can't draft enough to open them. I wish sealed had fired more so I could put a dent into those packs, I value efficiency over playing more, since I have more packs to open than time to play

I'm of the same mind. I prefer to play sealed for efficiency... but the flip side to that is that (currently) waiting for sealed to actually fire off wastes so much time that it ends up being more efficient to play drafts which have almost no wait time. I imagine this will change slightly in the coming weeks - the 'free year of drafts' codes originally went out 4/23/14 - so a large number of them will have expired by the end of the month, hopefully freeing up people who would draft by default to consider other options.

BKCshah
04-15-2015, 09:53 AM
If I were to estimate the phantom price point, it would probably be between 500-600 plat (probably right in the middle). Why? if all players entered with the phantom method, the cost per pack would be 167-200 plat.

TOOT
04-15-2015, 09:57 AM
For me Sealed is an abomination, for the simple reason that I get an absolutely shocking card pool. I might get really good cards in two colours, but not enough to make a deck with. So I have to go tri shard. But only have shard fixing for the colour with cavern scouts and cavern guards with fish hands and zodiac shamans. It sucks. So I can't go tri-shard [which I generally love to do] because of the fixing. And I can't go dual shard because I don't have enough cards in the chosen colours. So there is literally no point in even joining one, for this very reason. [Has happened in 4 out of 5 sealed tournies so far.]

#1 Your sample size is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.

#2 A huge factor in a person's winrate in sealed is how much they can salvage in return with a subpar card pool. Any moron can throw 4 crackling bolts, 2 Cannon Volleys, coupled with a Zakiir and Eternal Guardian into a deck and pretty much go 3-1 at worst.

It's the people who get a pile of junk, can evaluate that junk, and turn it into a 1-3 win effort compared to throwing up a zero. Three different people can make three wildly different decks off below average sealed pool.

As you eluded to, there are plenty of critical decisions to be made such as having to go tri-shard more often in sealed as opposed to draft which really only happens if you are running humans for the most part. These are what separates good sealed players and higher winrates from the lesser.

There is an argument to be made that sealed requires just as much skill as draft..

nicosharp
04-15-2015, 09:59 AM
Sealed is really for Whales after you do the math for time vs. EV.
I do like the Scheduled Sealed queues however.
If they have some kind of ranking system for Sealed, it may drive more interest, if there was a season end tournament or rewards.

The reality is that a lot of folks that play competitively for fun, are also playing competitively to sustain (I.e. go infinite). They want both their time and 'money' to be providing the highest value return. This means that the luck roll you subject yourself to in sealed, and the lower EV than draft, steer many players that are more serious about their competitive play, to Draft.

Draft gives you more control over the deck you ultimately build, at a lower entry fee, and same payout. When more casual players join the game, with money to throw around, there will be an increase in these tournaments firing, but really Sealed is more of a fun 'sometimes' mode for many players, as the overall value right now, just does not add up.

Vorpal
04-15-2015, 10:04 AM
EV is still equal to or better than any other alternatives to acquire cards. What does rare drafting have to do with this?

Why would someone not concerned about EV (not budget constrianed) but concerned about time (time constrained) waste his time limiting himself to opening 6 packs every 4 hours in sealed when he could just crack open packs whenever he wants instantaneously?

It seems like you're trying very hard to find a niche situation in which the current sealed system is great and doesn't need any changes.

I think if these people you hypothesize actually existed in any sort of numbers, we'd see sealed firing off a lot more than it does currently. As it is, sealed is not time efficient because it just never fires.

I think the pool of people attracted to asynch sealed greatly outnumbers the pool of people attracted to the current sealed.

vickrpg
04-15-2015, 10:12 AM
If I were to estimate the phantom price point, it would probably be between 500-600 plat (probably right in the middle). Why? if all players entered with the phantom method, the cost per pack would be 167-200 plat.

and I think this would be waaay to high a price to pay to play something where I keep none of the cards I open. at that price, I'd just draft.

IronPheasant
04-15-2015, 10:13 AM
So I can't go tri-shard [which I generally love to do] because of the fixing.

While lands that come into play tapped like Shards of Fate are indeed an awesome safety net, they aren't necessary to play tri color in sealed.

4 copies of a card in a 40 card deck means one will probably be drawn before the game is over. 6 copies, and it becomes fairly likely. If your splash color is composed of stuff you want to play toward the end of the game, like removal or fat guys, it ends up working more times than not. If the choices are playing a deck with 15 presentables versus a deck with ~20 of them that sometimes color screws you out, is there really anything lost by going out on the limb?

Steelio
04-15-2015, 10:17 AM
Welpers, I'm a fair draft player. But the card pool in limited quite often sucks.


#1 Your sample size is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.

#2 A huge factor in a person's winrate in sealed is how much they can salvage in return with a subpar card pool. Any moron can throw 4 crackling bolts, 2 Cannon Volleys, coupled with a Zakiir and Eternal Guardian into a deck and pretty much go 3-1 at worst.

It's the people who get a pile of junk, can evaluate that junk, and turn it into a 1-3 win effort compared to throwing up a zero. Three different people can make three wildly different decks off below average sealed pool.

As you eluded to, there are plenty of critical decisions to be made such as having to go tri-shard more often in sealed as opposed to draft which really only happens if you are running humans for the most part. These are what separates good sealed players and higher winrates from the lesser.

There is an argument to be made that sealed requires just as much skill as draft..

MatWith1T
04-15-2015, 10:23 AM
Welpers, I'm a fair draft player. But the card pool in limited quite often sucks.

That's what makes sealed a fun challenge. Draft gives you 357 card options to make a 40 card deck; sealed gives you 90. People don't win sealed because they got the pack with the 'good rares'; they win because they find the best ways to use the cards you wouldn't normally use in other formats.

nicosharp
04-15-2015, 10:29 AM
That's what makes sealed a fun challenge. Draft gives you 1,077 card options to make a 40 card deck; sealed gives you 90. People don't win sealed because they got the pack with the 'good rares'; they win because they find the best ways to use the cards you wouldn't normally use in other formats.
Draft only technically gives you 276 options... that's only counting what you actually see.

MatWith1T
04-15-2015, 10:33 AM
Draft only technically gives you 276 options... that's only counting what you actually see.

Ha, I multiplied by 3 twice...you are correct. Though I count 357 if you consider cards that wheel around the 2nd time a separate choice (which I do because strategizing that certain cards will wheel is most certainly a drafting tactic) So 15+14+13+12...+2 (last card isn't a choice) x 3 packs

TOOT
04-15-2015, 10:36 AM
:confused: Why do I bother. :confused:

BKCshah
04-15-2015, 10:58 AM
OK, I've lost interest in the Expected Value side. Let's look at potential changes to the standard sealed queue.

What if sealed was 10/6/4/4 single elimination? Would more people play it? Now the payouts are just double competitive draft for each place. If you have a similar sealed match win-rate your personal EV is the same as in draft.

Oh, there's too much luck involved. This is always an amusing argument in a game with many random factors, but sure let's try to reduce the variance some. What if it was swiss format with the above payout? 2nd place based on tie-breakers or the 2-0 match loser. There's the potential for added playtime if desired compared to single elimination draft. 0-2 players would drop, so there’s 6 players in the final round.

Each of these is more top heavy, so the 'better' player can pat themselves on the back for going infinite in these formats in addition to draft. Heck, let's add one pack to make it 10/5/5/5 (64 plat per prize pack vs 67 plat per prize pack). Now the expected value is higher than draft.

What would happen to Competitive Draft if a pack was removed from the 5322 queue to make it 4322? Would Swiss become the main draft queue?

nicosharp
04-15-2015, 11:12 AM
really awkward idea BKC.
Sealed is definitely an argument of increased luck. Also, single elimination in sealed sounds horrible. Taking a pack from competitive draft sounds horrible as well.

IMO from playing release celebration Magic Tournaments - that were sealed, and sometimes packs+intro decks based on the colors you wanted(return to ravinca block), and also release celebration WOW TCG Tournaments - that were sealed 6 pack only tournaments. Those were unique experiences, but not very "competitive" or a mode many would enjoy playing long-term competitively.

I feel like sealed needs to remain casual swiss in all regards, and like many have mentioned, could become an asynch mode similar to what Hearthstone currently has.

My strong opinion is Sealed needs to go the way of the dodo. Extinction. Replace it with Asynch mode, and match people according to their records. Keep the same entry fee and payouts. Incentivize queues with unique ratings/rewards.

Oli
04-15-2015, 12:01 PM
Just make the sealed-tournaments take twiche as long at the draft.
2x entry, 2x time = 2x prices. Everyone wins.
Combined with async and you get some kind of league-play we are all waiting for...

BKCshah
04-15-2015, 12:03 PM
good idea. 1 hour per player chess clocks. format fixed :D

ossuary
04-15-2015, 12:08 PM
good idea. 1 hour per player chess clocks. format fixed :D

Change approved!

nicosharp
04-15-2015, 12:25 PM
Change approved!
I hope you two are being sarcastic....

BKCshah
04-15-2015, 01:19 PM
About the chess clock? Your sarcasm detector needs new batteries.

About the sealed prize pool payout? No. I think that there are changes that could be explored. Do I think that I have proposed particularly valid ones? No. However, people seem to like top heavy formats. As much as people talk about casual environments, most people enjoy winning more than they spent. Opened cards are typically left out of this equation. You will never have that experience with the current normal sealed payout. You'll always be -200 plat so it feels like a loss since you never win product. This and time are two reasons that swiss draft is less popular. In MTGO, a pack is removed from the prize support (84, 4322 and Swiss). Basically this makes the 4322 queue terrible value, but they still fire due to time/player perceptions/other reasons. One day 8-4's are planned in Hex. That'll be interesting to observe the different draft queue fire rates.

When the Sealed payout was 12 packs for 100 plat, the queues were rightly ignored pretty much completely. The adjustment was made so it equal to two drafts. People played them some, but they faded in popularity with that release of Scheduled Sealed. My math may be wrong, but there's 63 packs paid out for 3200 plat removed (~50 plat per pack for 16 players). This makes it much more attractive than the regular sealed queues (67 plat per pack). The B/E point for Scheduled Sealed is 2 packs and 200 plat from opened cards instead of 3 packs and 200 plat. That 1 pack EV difference is significant. 600 vs 800 plat [store prices] card value to break even. Based on that, it's hard to justify joining any regular sealed when scheduled exist. Most people try to get the most value, the regular sealed value just isn't there when compared to other options.

I enjoy sealed. I've stated before that I would like to see them switch times weekly for the different scheduled queues. This is slightly selfish, but I can't be the only one that has terrible times. Heck, rotate it by an hour each week.
4/5 2 am, 6am, 10am, 2pm, 6pm, 10pm
4/12 4 am, 8am, 12pm, 4pm, 8pm, 12am

nicosharp
04-15-2015, 02:00 PM
I agree with you about the EV being better for Scheduled Sealed. If it isn't, at least they made it seemingly so.
3200 plat in
96 packs in
rd1: 8 ppl 1 win
rd2: 8 ppl 1 win, 4 ppl 2 win
rd3: 6 ppl 1 win, 6 ppl 2 win, 2 ppl 3 win
rd4: 4 ppl 1 win, 6 ppl 2 win, 4 ppl 3 win, 1 ppl 1 win
packs in scheduled = 0+(3x6)+(8x4)+(13x1) = 63 packs output

In fact, it would seem, Scheduled Sealed has the best payout in the game, unless you consider scheduled constructed and constructed queues with some dollar translation for the value of the packs here into plat.

5/16 get nothing in scheduled sealed vs. 1/8 get nothing in swiss 8 man sealed.
It's all about perception really for the value, but having freely launching queues for sealed that pay better than competitive draft queues would be a bad idea. The increased EV would drive false interest in a mode more ideal for a bit less competitive play. This is why Asynch is important, and can really change a lot for the EV for sealed players/casual players, while not committing them to a set 4hour session, and could increase the EV through allowing longer streaks of wins than just 4, before the payout hits.

Diesbudt
04-15-2015, 02:07 PM
Sealed isn't as popularly for 3 reasons.

1) They are all Swiss, and a lot of players want to go in and if their deck seems to suck be knocked out round 1 and move on. (Async will help this one)
2) It is highly more luck based then draft. Yes they both require luck of opening, but draft players have a better chance to recover bad opens by drafting well (done this many times). Meanwhile sealed is more whoever opens the better combo of rares/un comma because 6 packs are used and not 3.
3) I find drafting a crafting a deck a card at a time much more fun then have a random of 90 cards. It's interesting and for me at least fun to pick out cards and try to make things work.

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 02:26 PM
Sparrow, you continue to mistakenly assume that what you personally want must be what everyone wants, and that how you see things is how everyone sees things. This is an extremely common fallacy. People disagreeing with you are not doing so because they are wrong, they are doing so because they see things differently, or have a different opinion. You're not going to win any points with anyone by continuing to insist that their failure to agree with you is just "rationalization."

You say that Sealed needs to be fixed because you could do two Drafts and get double the time enjoyment for the same money. On the other hand, Sealed is twice as efficient as Draft because you could open and win twice as many packs in half the time as doing 2 full Drafts. It all depends on which you value more, your time or your money. Right now, the cost to payout ratio between the two is even, and that's how it should be. Adding more prizes to one doesn't fix anything, it just changes the balance. In your example, it's a significant shift resulting in packs being generated for cheaper, and this would have an impact on the economy as a whole. It's not as cut and dry as you want to make it.

A solution for the problem is already in the works. Sealed is not convenient enough for a clearly significant portion of the player base who WOULD play sealed based on their personality / play type. Asynch WILL address that problem by making it so they can drop in and drop out whenever they have the time. It's foolish to attempt to retool the prize payouts or make any other changes before we see what asynch will do for the format. If asynch has been out for a few months and you still can't get a game going, that's an entirely different matter and it would be completely reasonable to review other factors at that point, but before that happens, talking about changing the payouts is wasted breath... CZE won't change it, and they shouldn't.
The hoops I have to go through to get a cogent response. Thank you.

JohnDruitt
04-15-2015, 02:48 PM
What if sealed was 10/6/4/4 single elimination? Would more people play it? Now the payouts are just double competitive draft for each place. If you have a similar sealed match win-rate your personal EV is the same as in draft.

Oh, there's too much luck involved. This is always an amusing argument in a game with many random factors, but sure let's try to reduce the variance some. What if it was swiss format with the above payout? 2nd place based on tie-breakers or the 2-0 match loser. There's the potential for added playtime if desired compared to single elimination draft. 0-2 players would drop, so there’s 6 players in the final round.

Each of these is more top heavy, so the 'better' player can pat themselves on the back for going infinite in these formats in addition to draft. Heck, let's add one pack to make it 10/5/5/5 (64 plat per prize pack vs 67 plat per prize pack). Now the expected value is higher than draft.

What would happen to Competitive Draft if a pack was removed from the 5322 queue to make it 4322? Would Swiss become the main draft queue?

I would play 10/6/4/4 sealed all the time if possible. I wont play the one that we have now. Also I would not play 4/3/2/2 comp drafts.

Yoss
04-15-2015, 03:09 PM
The hoops I have to go through to get a cogent response. Thank you.

Glad ossuary could set it straight. Now I don't have to. ;)

nicosharp
04-15-2015, 03:24 PM
Glad ossuary could set it straight. Now I don't have to. ;)
You hipster hand-holding posters... :p

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 03:25 PM
Glad ossuary could set it straight. Now I don't have to. ;)
Gods, no, not that! :)

But, yeah, a firm slap down helps. Surprised this thread has gone so long.

nicosharp
04-15-2015, 03:28 PM
Gods, no, not that! :)

But, yeah, a firm slap down helps. Surprised this thread has gone so long.

There is only so many posts generated per day for this hungry community of 50 posters to devour. We gotta keep something going.

ossuary
04-15-2015, 03:47 PM
There is only so many posts generated per day for this hungry community of 50 posters to devour. We gotta keep something going.

*sigh*

You're right. We've covered tournament payouts, CMK / Gore Feast being overpowered, the shuffler being "broken," and certain Arena champions being unfair / unfun lately.

... I guess it's time to argue about mercenaries being bind on use or people not being able to buy KS tiers anymore again? You can choose. :D

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 04:10 PM
*sigh*

You're right. We've covered tournament payouts, CMK / Gore Feast being overpowered, the shuffler being "broken," and certain Arena champions being unfair / unfun lately.

... I guess it's time to argue about mercenaries being bind on use or people not being able to buy KS tiers anymore again? You can choose. :D
Let's argue about how beta didn't launch in Sept 2013 and CZE "promised" it would but gave us alpha instead and how it's not fair that the higher KS tiers got in first. I loved those... um.... "discussions".

Biz
04-15-2015, 04:19 PM
it would help a little if the multicolor shards were provided like the normal ones

MatWith1T
04-15-2015, 05:35 PM
Let's argue about how beta didn't launch in Sept 2013 and CZE "promised" it would but gave us alpha instead and how it's not fair that the higher KS tiers got in first. I loved those... um.... "discussions".

They should delay set 2 as well.

zadies
04-15-2015, 07:00 PM
About the sealed prize pool payout? No. I think that there are changes that could be explored. Do I think that I have proposed particularly valid ones? No. However, people seem to like top heavy formats. As much as people talk about casual environments, most people enjoy winning more than they spent. Opened cards are typically left out of this equation. You will never have that experience with the current normal sealed payout.

opened cards are typically ignored in the ev calculations because most of the time the cost of packs in entry is also ignored

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 07:01 PM
@ Mat: that made me laugh.

Sparrow
04-15-2015, 07:03 PM
opened cards are typically ignored in the ev calculations because most of the time the cost of packs in entry is also ignored
Any analysis I've seen always includes the cost of packs, since the opened value of a pack on average is a fraction of the unopened value. In fact pack cost is the most important part of EV calculation in non-constructed events.

Vorpal
04-15-2015, 07:20 PM
opened cards are typically ignored in the ev calculations because most of the time the cost of packs in entry is also ignored

Both need to be included for the EV to be a meaningful figure.

zadies
04-15-2015, 10:16 PM
People just tend to ignore data that they want to when they want to just like you ignore the average value of packs.

LNQ
04-15-2015, 11:55 PM
Any analysis I've seen always includes the cost of packs, since the opened value of a pack on average is a fraction of the unopened value. In fact pack cost is the most important part of EV calculation in non-constructed events.

Comparing constructed and limited formats does not make much sense because of the lack of packs used in constructed. If you ever want to compare them, you should just assume that the alternative for limited is playing constructed + opening the packs yourself or keeping them unopened forever.

Comparing non-constructed events is easy because Sealed and Draft both have the same plat to packs used ratio, so you can eliminate the cost of packs opened / unopened from the equation.


Both need to be included for the EV to be a meaningful figure.

The problem is that you don't have a concrete value for the contents of opened packs. To calculate EV, you have to assume that the alternative to playing draft or sealed is opening the packs otherwise. At the very least when comparind Sealed and Draft, you have to assume that the EV for opened draft packs (where you pick the cards one by one) is the same as for packs you open outside of draft.

Time, just like opened packs is something you can't attribute a clear value. Time is even worse because the value is different on a per user basis. It needs to be left out.

Taking these into account, there is no difference between the EV of draft and sealed. The EV for playing limited is getting 1 pack / 133 plat spent (with a chance to proc primal). In other words, a subvention of 67 plat per pack generated compared to the store.

This EV for playing limited should remain the same for any current and future formats. The only possible exception that could be considered (but even this should be avoided) is having a lower EV for some wacky fun casual limited format where it is for some reason difficult to set it up to have the exact same EV. Even in these cases it would be good to try to get the EV as close as that of draft & sealed.

Sparrow
04-16-2015, 01:05 AM
Time, value of pack contents, whether to value unopened packs at retail price or AH price, etc. are all attributes that each player will value differently. For me, a pack's average contents are worth close to 0, since I don't play PVP constructed. Entertainment hours per $ is my most important measurement and a close 2nd is how cheaply can I play the next event using prizes I've won. Not everyone sees it that way, obviously.

That aside, I think there is a real lack of empathy for non-drafter limited players. I would never, ever get in the middle of a thread about drafts and prizes and entry fees and post a bunch of BS about how I think it should be since it's a format I don't play. I save my BS for sealed threads. Nor do I begrudge drafter's their double value on hours of entertainment per $ and wouldn't want to see them charged at sealed rates for their fun. Sealed players will always be second class and I know that but I'm still going to fight for improvements and not sit idly by waiting for asynch that may or may not come later this year.

What I would like to see that doesn't change the total number of pack prizes given out in 8-player sealed, is a more competitive queue where all the packs just go to 1st and 2nd place. Since the 8-player sealed queue in its current form is all but dead, it can't be hurt by a prize shuffle of this nature. But, probably drafters have a problem with that as well. Shrug.

Gwaer
04-16-2015, 01:58 AM
Don't opened packs have the highest value when you don't care what's in them? Other people do. Sell all of the cards you open. You'll make bank.

I myself am not a draft player or a sealed or constructed player. I enjoy all of the formats and as I've said wish the sealed queue fired more frequently. I am also looking forward to more formats, and the player base that can support all of the queues to fire regularly.

Sparrow
04-16-2015, 03:58 AM
Well, I shouldn't say they're worth close to 0, but that they're precisely worth market value to me, since my pack contents go toward fueling more events (in theory, anyways, haven't been able to get in a sealed event yet).

LNQ
04-16-2015, 04:37 AM
Well, I shouldn't say they're worth close to 0, but that they're precisely worth market value to me, since my pack contents go toward fueling more events (in theory, anyways, haven't been able to get in a sealed event yet).

In fact as gwaer said, you get the most value out of opened packs. You can turn all cards in for plat right after you obtain them, and cards generally are worth the most early in a set. Players who want to grow their collection wont earn a dime.

And the market value of opened packs is MUCH closer to the price of unopened packs than 0.

magic_gazz
04-16-2015, 06:39 AM
I would be interested to know the REAL value of an opened pack, not some terrible more than the pack price based on bad data.

I would guess its about 100 plat, probably less.

plaguedealer
04-16-2015, 06:56 AM
It would not be perfect, but you could get a average value of all the money cards, then the semi money cards. Find the percent number of said cards and do your calculations. It still wouldn't take into account that alot of rares are not worth 31 plat. I am guessing you are looking at 60 to 75 plat.

Funny enough if you convert alot of the cards to gold i bet uour looking at around 75 to 85 plat.

Vorpal
04-16-2015, 07:32 AM
The problem is that you don't have a concrete value for the contents of opened packs. To calculate EV, you have to assume that the alternative to playing draft or sealed is opening the packs otherwise

We should compare it to selling the packs on the AH.


Taking these into account, there is no difference between the EV of draft and sealed.

Yes there is. Your EV is the same only when doing 2 drafts per 1 sealed.

bootlace
04-16-2015, 07:35 AM
Let's forget for a second trying to make calculations in today's dysfunctional market, and let's instead think from the perspective of a perfect market. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect_market)

A pack bought from the store costs $2. There is a 2% chance to proc a primal which costs ~$20. So if we take that into account the contents of pack should be no more than $1.6 (2-(.02*20)). Then there's also the chest that it generates and putting a monetary value on that at this point is futile but let's just say it's $0.1. So the cards themselves at this point can be worth no more than $1.5.

However we also have to taken into account that these packs are used in generating extra packs. A draft on average pays out 1.5 packs per person. At store prices this is $3 (also has chance to generate primal so using this price is not wrong). Once we subtract the entrance fee of $1 we're left with $2 earned from 3 packs, which is an extra $0.66 worth of value through proper use of a pack. Plugging this back into the formula the cards in the pack should have worth no more than $0.84 (1.5-.66).

This is simple napkin math but hopefully you can see roughly where the ceiling lies.

Vorpal
04-16-2015, 08:15 AM
That estimate seems pretty fair. There are a LOT of 'useless' set 1 rares that you just can't sell. They show up as being 'worth' 30 plat but good luck getting anyone to buy them! Most of the set 1 uncommons are also not worth much (solitary exile and war machinist being the exceptions, mostly)

Set 2 seems to have fewer 'dead' rares (or perhaps I've been luckier) and of course set 2 has the (currently) extremely desirable elctroids and (presumably always) extremely desirable dual shards and the crackling vortex (which sells for more than many set 1 legendaries). Set 2 might hold its value better over time, not sure. There are a lot of 'staples' in set 1 but a lot of them are also common.

IronPheasant
04-16-2015, 11:23 AM
Funny enough if you convert alot of the cards to gold i bet uour looking at around 75 to 85 plat.

It always breaks my heart seeing someone pay more than 3 plat in gold for a common when there's pages of it being offered for 3 plat.


There are a LOT of 'useless' set 1 rares that you just can't sell.

I would love to buy much such jank at 5 to 10 cents. But. Oh well.

Incindium
04-16-2015, 11:29 AM
The junk rares will sell for gold. Sometimes for more gold that they are worth in plat. Sold a Master Theorycrafter for 10k gold the other day.

IronPheasant
04-16-2015, 12:37 PM
61 units of Scarcliff Chimera sitting on the auction house for anyone who wants to pay $0.30 for a $0.04 card. Much amaze.

nicosharp
04-16-2015, 12:43 PM
61 units of Scarcliff Chimera sitting on the auction house for anyone who wants to pay $0.30 for a $0.04 card. Much amaze.
$0.04 is asking a bit much for a free card.

Blare731
04-16-2015, 01:52 PM
The junk rares will sell for gold. Sometimes for more gold that they are worth in plat. Sold a Master Theorycrafter for 10k gold the other day.

Sometimes it's just selling at the right time. A friend of mine posted 5 solitary exiles when there were none for 80 plat each. A guy came around and bought a full set (4) and the next day the price was down to 30 plat. He was very lucky. But I agree with you, many people don't check the plat to gold ratio when looking at lower end cards and by things that are really expensive in gold but very cheap for plat. Especially when you consider that gold is a precious and limited resource that you have to farm for.


As for the actual thread topic. You can take my humble opinion with a grain of salt knowing that I don't come from a TCG background like many do. On the other hand, I think I can make a very conscious effort to be unbiased.

Edit: used to read "effort to not be unbiased" *sigh*

The problem:
I'd say, it is not that there is no interest in sealed. Honestly, I would argue that sealed for many people is just as fun as draft and for some more so. I think the problem with sealed lies in it's queue times, or rather the stigma that comp draft has the fastest queue times. This is most certainly true as the game stands now. Like other games not related to TCGs such as the overused mmo example WoW, people generally drift towards shorter queue times. People run specs to get faster queue times for dungeons (tanks or healers) and people definitely switch servers altogether in favor of better pvp queue times. So it doesn't surprise me to see that the queue that has the fastest times, is the one that most people queue for over and over again. Especially when the distribution of queue targets (draft vs sealed vs constructed) was highly influenced in the first place with draft tickets. Since everyone using their tickets HAD to use them on draft. There was no sense in spending money/plat on a format where the rewards were equal to the rewards of a format you got to play for free.

The solution:
Be patient. The solution to this problem as a whole, is a larger player base. At least half, arguably more, of our potential player base has not even started playing yet. The PvP scene isn't even fully developed yet. CZE still has to at least set up the quarterly tournaments and ranking systems before I would say it is close to being polished. So not only are you missing a lot of people that are pure PvPers, you are missing the larger portion of people that will be playing PvE. If it is anything like what it's been hyped up to be, there should be more people playing PvE at all times over PvP. At first that may seem negligible for this argument, but as time goes on, more and more of those people might try PvP and play both. That is literally their plan of revenue. Encourage more people to play the game, even if for free, without affecting the competitive PvP scene that a normal TCG would have and hope that those people that play for free take an interest in the PvP scene at least enough to try it.


I feel your pain though,
I can say without a doubt I backed Hex to play PvE. But I'll be honest, when I saw all the rewards I could get from Grand King, the thing that influence me the most over Raid Leader was the free draft for life. The security in knowing that I could open 3 new packs every week, in every set, for life. But that was only why I chose GK. I was going to back RL at least just for the perks in PvE. AND TRUE PVE STILL ISNT OUT YET. I mean sure there is Arena. But that is just the tip of the tip of the iceberg compared to the amount of content and actual story that the PvE has. It's just a teaser, and really glorified proving grounds with some variability in it. Don't get me wrong. I Love it. I'm so happy to see anything on PvE come out, but I've been patient for almost two years now since the KS. Just waiting for PvE to come out. I understand your pain, and I'm just asking you to wait a little longer with me. I have no doubt in my mind that CZE will do it's best to accommodate all it's players, now and in the future. It is just important that they do it 'fairly', and making drastic decisions like you propose are very extreme when we don't have the full picture yet.

IronPheasant
04-16-2015, 02:59 PM
$0.04 is asking a bit much for a free card.

Nothing is free, in this life or the next. Having all the power level of an Ambling Bluff puts it in the dumpster.

Look at these chumps trying to sell 28 copies of an unfree card for 3 cents and failing. (http://www.mtgotraders.com/store/SOK_One_with_Nothing.html)

nicosharp
04-16-2015, 03:21 PM
Nothing is free, in this life or the next. Having all the power level of an Ambling Bluff puts it in the dumpster.

Look at these chumps trying to sell 28 copies of an unfree card for 3 cents and failing. (http://www.mtgotraders.com/store/SOK_One_with_Nothing.html)
But you can discard your entire hand for 1 skully. Totally worth my 3 pennies.

Sparrow
04-17-2015, 05:32 AM
The solution:
Be patient. The solution to this problem as a whole, is a larger player base.
Apologies for reducing a thoughtful post to a snippet. A larger player base will solve much, as well as asynch if it's developed along the lines of arena, where players can keep playing until they've had three losses -- with a maximum # of wins, obviously, probably five would be about right. If asynch becomes to Hex what leagues once were to MTGO it could easily go longer and have interesting options, like the ability to add a pack to your card pool after X # of matches. If it's just three matches and you're done, though, that will be a huge disappointment for me and seem like a waste of time developing a feature that could really have had some depth to it.

Vorpal
04-17-2015, 08:30 AM
They will have to watch out for queue dilution. So for example, there shouldn't be a synch sealed queue and an asynch sealed queue - there should only be an asynch sealed queue.

If they want to experiment with different reward payouts, I think it would be best to rotate those based on the day, rather than introduce new queues for them.

Yoss
04-17-2015, 11:00 AM
Apologies for reducing a thoughtful post to a snippet. A larger player base will solve much, as well as asynch if it's developed along the lines of arena, where players can keep playing until they've had three losses -- with a maximum # of wins, obviously, probably five would be about right. If asynch becomes to Hex what leagues once were to MTGO it could easily go longer and have interesting options, like the ability to add a pack to your card pool after X # of matches. If it's just three matches and you're done, though, that will be a huge disappointment for me and seem like a waste of time developing a feature that could really have had some depth to it.
I would personally be fine with 3 matches and out, but the Hex team is likely considering exactly the sort of things you're asking for.

EntropyBall
04-17-2015, 11:18 AM
I don't participate in sealed because its not asynch and is guaranteed to eat up 3+ continuous hours. At least in comp. draft if my decks sucks I'm done in an hour and can get another draft in or go do something else. If sealed prizes were better somehow than draft, any time I spent in sealed would be 1:1 reducing my time in draft. The only thing that will get me to play more limited is making the format fit my schedule better (i.e. asynch).

zadies
04-17-2015, 03:23 PM
Really the marathon tournaments are more interesting to me then the idea of aynsc but really I think they aysnc background stuff would need to be implemented to get them to work as I think they are being envisioned(and really seem alot like the types of things that had been mentioned a little while ago like leagues and arena but with a cut off time instead of cutoff wins/losses)

Sparrow
04-17-2015, 04:53 PM
If asynch is developed in a way that allows a person to compete with their deck for a month, that would be more than awesome. I think once we get out of beta and past the lawsuit, there will be many more players and Hex could support both shorter asynch events and longer ones. Looking forward to when there's the flexibility that formats don't need to be one size fits all.