PDA

View Full Version : Test server Primal Packs rate



RamzaBehoulve
06-19-2015, 07:35 AM
Buy packs from test server store, then post here your results. Booster edition should be irrelevant. We'll be checking if the primal proc rate is still 1-2%. I will update the main post every once in a while with new acquired data. For those who wish to, we can also separate the different sets for data analysis sake.

Current results show the primal proc rate to be at or near 1.8% when taking into account all sets. Similarly, set3 data show 1.8% primal pack rate as well. Given the test server was not always giving the primal pack feedback window, I would assume the real proc rate to be at or near 2% as expected from the beginning. While the method is not perfect, it is the closest number to the truth we'll most likely ever get until a new test server event.

All sets : 12978 boosters --> 238 primal pack = ~1.8%

RamzaBehoulve : 500 booster packs --> 6 Primal packs
Nicosharp : 756 --> 11
Poizonous : 400 --> 11
Bombs : 400 --> 6
Incindium : 950 --> 11
Nickon : 500 --> 14
Kami : 393 --> 2
Salverus : 100 --> 0
Hidekin : 500 --> 7
Ariathor : 490 --> 5
KingGabriel : 250 --> 9
Warrender : 20 --> 1
Stormlight : 300 --> 5
contrary : 496 --> 10
bwarner : 80 --> 3
Zubrin : 150 --> 0
darkwonders : 350 --> 9
Xenavire : 50 --> 3
Aradon : 352 --> 7
A-v-e-n : 380 --> 4
HitoZ : 936 --> 15
Bmon : 775 --> 15
Zophie : 700 --> 18
Fyren : 500 --> 10
Valtaen : 800 --> 17
Homunculus : 750 --> 17
Zarien : 500 --> 5
Shadowflame : 500 --> 7
BlackRoger : 600 --> 16 primals

Armies of Myth set : 6668 --> 121 = ~1.8%

RamzaBehoulve : 200 --> 1
Incindium : 400 --> 4
Nickon : 500 --> 14
Kami : 131 --> 1
Salverus : 100 --> 0
Ariathor : 490 --> 5
Stormlight : 300 --> 5
Warrender : 20 --> 1
Zubrin : 150 --> 0
Aradon : 352 --> 7
A-v-e-n : 300 --> 4
Bmon : 175 --> 4
Zophie : 700 --> 18
Fyren : 500 --> 10
Valtaen : 400 --> 12
Homunculus : 350 --> 7
Zarien : 500 --> 5
Shadowflame : 500 --> 7
BlackRoger : 600 --> 16 primals


As an added bonus, assuming the primal proc rate is indeed 2.0% and a normal booster price is 165 on AH and 200 in store (meaning you buy for 200 from store and resell all of them for 160 in AH), you would need to obtain 50 boosters for 1 primal, that is to invest about 2000p to "force" a primal pack. Of course, this number is entirely based on how much you can resell your normal packs. The higher you can resell, the lower your investment for a primal.

TLDR : primal packs are currently cheaper on AH than if you tried to forcefully obtain them yourself.

Edit : I removed set1 and set2 individual data, we clearly did not have enough and the game is not properly reporting the primal proc.

Edit2 : I'm very tired, I wouldn't mind some other maths guru to check the calculus of the theoritical primal pack cost.

Edit 3 : 10k+, not taking any more numbers. Ok, I took the last few thousands, but now, stop!

poizonous
06-19-2015, 07:37 AM
400 packs - 11 primals

Bombs
06-19-2015, 07:40 AM
400 Packs - 6 primals

Incindium
06-19-2015, 07:45 AM
200 Set 3 packs - 1 primal


Actually though can we assume that set is irrelevant?

RamzaBehoulve
06-19-2015, 08:04 AM
200 Set 3 packs - 1 primal


Actually though can we assume that set is irrelevant?

If people write down the different results for each set, I can also post the results for it, but I think it's safe to assume all editions have the same primal pack chance, otherwise it creates a disparity and we would eventually find out and bitch hardcore about it. If they want to make time limited special sets promotions, they should/would announce it.

nickon
06-19-2015, 08:12 AM
Oh noeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees, I think I spoiled my shot at finally having a good primal proc rate by doing this on the test server:
500 set 3 packs bought
14 primal packs

Kami
06-19-2015, 08:25 AM
393 Packs - 2 Primals

Breakdown:

131 Set 1 - 1 Primal
131 Set 2 - 0 Primal
131 Set 3 - 1 Primal

Salverus
06-19-2015, 08:26 AM
100 set 3 : 0 primal packs

poizonous
06-19-2015, 08:37 AM
Man Kami, you got shafted...

Kami
06-19-2015, 08:47 AM
Man Kami, you got shafted...

S'okay. It's only the test server. On the live server, I won't need packs. :stormcloud:

poizonous
06-19-2015, 09:15 AM
Fair enough, and you see my proc rate on test server, my live server procs look worse than your numbers there lol

Ariathor
06-19-2015, 10:27 AM
490 set 3 packs --> 5 primals
1.01 proc rate

Funnily enough, that looks much worse than my proc rate on the live server which is 8 Primals from 151 packs!!!

KingGabriel
06-19-2015, 10:41 AM
I got 9 off 250. Also, this thread is stupid. You're more likely to post if you get a negative result.

nicosharp
06-19-2015, 10:51 AM
I got 9 off 250. Also, this thread is stupid. You're more likely to post if you get a negative result.

That logic.....
I think people are generally posting to share what they've gleaned, regardless of the result.

add another 100 for me - 1 primal

Warrender
06-19-2015, 11:19 AM
Bought 20 set 3 packs so far - got 1 Primal.

Stormlight
06-19-2015, 11:36 AM
300 set 3 packs - 5 primals

RamzaBehoulve
06-19-2015, 01:05 PM
I got 9 off 250. You're more likely to post if you get a negative result.

Thank you for the data. Statistics do not care about who is most likely to post if there is no incentive to do so aka "biased poll syndrom". There is no valid reason why one with a "negative" result would be more or less likely to post than one with a positive. We are just sharing numbers.

Aradon
06-19-2015, 01:15 PM
It's a known bias that if you're collecting data off people more or less likely to report based on the results, you're going to get skewed numbers.

Let's assume for the moment that people only see this thread if they come onto the forums to complain about low drop rates. If they're happy with the drop rates, they don't come onto the forums or look for drop rate threads. That means that you're only going to be collecting data from people with lower-than-expected results, and you're not going to be collecting the normal data, because it's not being reported.

This scenario biases your data towards the lower-than-expected results, even though the rate is normal across the whole population. Usually statistics-gathering is done by people deciding to report numbers before they open/buy, that way they aren't subjecting themselves to bias.

RamzaBehoulve
06-19-2015, 01:17 PM
It's a known bias that if you're collecting data off people more or less likely to report based on the results, you're going to get skewed numbers.

Let's assume for the moment that people only see this thread if they come onto the forums to complain about low drop rates. If they're happy with the drop rates, they don't come onto the forums or look for drop rate threads. That means that you're only going to be collecting data from people with lower-than-expected results, and you're not going to be collecting the normal data, because it's not being reported.

This scenario biases your data towards the lower-than-expected results, even though the rate is normal across the whole population. Usually statistics-gathering is done by people deciding to report numbers before they open/buy, that way they aren't subjecting themselves to bias.

I talked about the thread in the general chat of the test server and got some numbers directly in-game. There is no bias here despite what some of you may think, and the original thread was in the general forum. Mods moved it here. As I said already, there is zero incentive or reason why someone would post his result based on a higher or lower number.

And regardless, it's the closest we'll ever get to the real number because I sure as hell do not expect anyone to ever use 2M plat by himself/herself in the real game just to get the basic minimum of 1000 items to even start doing statistics.

Aradon
06-19-2015, 01:29 PM
I'm not saying the thread's useless. I would hesitate to come to any solid conclusions based on this, though.

And if you just ask in general chat, do you really think you're going to get a neutral response? A lot of people that remember their primal rate are going to remember because they felt it was high or low. Middling results are often forgotten. People are more likely to report if they think their information stands out. You don't have to do anything to incentivize skewed results, it happens naturally.

contrary
06-19-2015, 02:11 PM
496 packs, 10 primals

For what it's worth, I wasn't seeking to crow or complain. I was just skimming through this sub-forum to see if anything interesting related to the test server popped up.

nicosharp
06-19-2015, 02:46 PM
Oh, and if I include the packs I won: add 6 packs: 0 primals

Hopefully they reset the plat again for tomorrow, and I'll test again.

bwarner
06-19-2015, 06:48 PM
I bought a mere 80 packs, and had 3 primals.

Zubrin
06-19-2015, 07:31 PM
150 Set 3 Packs, 0 Primals.

KingGabriel
06-19-2015, 07:41 PM
Another reason why this thread is incredibly highly likely biased: http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=43651
:P

poizonous
06-19-2015, 07:46 PM
your results are all incorrect, you have Nickon listed at 3 primals when he wrote he earned 14

darkwonders
06-20-2015, 09:03 AM
100 Packs - 2 Primals. So exactly 2% for me :D

RamzaBehoulve
06-20-2015, 09:13 AM
your results are all incorrect, you have Nickon listed at 3 primals when he wrote he earned 14

Yes, I noticed when going over everything again, thanks.

Xenavire
06-20-2015, 09:20 AM
Since we need some more data, I bought 45 packs to go with the 5 from a draft on Friday - 3 primals spawned.

Aradon
06-20-2015, 09:27 AM
Got to log on today and spend the last of my plat, so you can add in 352 boosters, which proc'd 7 primals. Right on the dot for 2%, too.

Set 3 boosters, if anyone cares.

darkwonders
06-20-2015, 09:34 AM
Bought 250 more. Got 7 Primals.

RamzaBehoulve
06-20-2015, 09:39 AM
I'll slowly go over the numbers as we wait for the tournament, thanks everyone.

a-V-e-n
06-20-2015, 03:02 PM
300x set3 -> 4 primals
50x set1 -> null
30x set2 -> null

Incindium
06-20-2015, 09:46 PM
Bought more Set 3
200 - 3 Primals

HitoZ
06-21-2015, 06:39 AM
bought 400-450 packs in total, and i know of at least 6 primals that i got.

RamzaBehoulve
06-21-2015, 06:48 AM
bought 400-450 packs in total, and i know of at least 6 primals that i got.

I need you to be sure and precise on the numbers :)

HitoZ
06-21-2015, 08:09 AM
I need you to be sure and precise on the numbers :)

Ok, more precise just for you, 436 packs = 7 primals. I was recording, just didn't bother to check the whole footage before since i have quite a lot.

RamzaBehoulve
06-21-2015, 09:30 AM
Ok, more precise just for you, 436 packs = 7 primals. I was recording, just didn't bother to check the whole footage before since i have quite a lot.

Much better, thank you.

Incindium
06-24-2015, 06:38 PM
300 - Set 3 Packs - 3 Primals

Bmon
06-24-2015, 07:23 PM
600 set 3 packs - 11 primals
175 set 2 packs - 4 primals

Zophie
06-24-2015, 08:00 PM
Today I bought 700 set 3 packs - 18 primals

Incindium
06-24-2015, 08:08 PM
250 Set 2 - 4 Primals

Fyren
06-24-2015, 09:40 PM
500 Set 3 - 10 Primals

Valtaen
06-25-2015, 12:09 AM
200 Set 1 - 2 Primals (1.0%)
200 Set 2 - 3 Primals (1.5%)
400 Set 3 - 12 Primals (3.0%)

HitoZ
06-25-2015, 01:48 AM
250 set 2, bought as 50,100,100 ( 0 primals )
100 set 2, bought as 50, 50 got (2, 1 primals)
100 set 1, bought as 20,20,20,20,20 (got 2 primals total)

edit:
50 set 1 packs, bought as 50 (3 primals)

total: 500 packs (8 primals)

RamzaBehoulve
06-25-2015, 04:59 AM
I'm busy these two days, but I'll check the thread this week-end. Thanks for the data !

nicosharp
06-25-2015, 07:44 AM
350 set 2 packs, 7 primals

Homunculus
06-25-2015, 11:38 AM
750 Packs - 17 Primals

Breakdown:

200 Set 1 - 4 Primal
200 Set 2 - 6 Primal
350 Set 3 - 7 Primal

Zarien
06-25-2015, 03:14 PM
500 packs of set 3 - 5 primal packs

Shadowflame
06-25-2015, 03:28 PM
500 set 3 packs - 7 primals

I don't think people are more likely to post if they get low rates. That argument might have merit on a live server, but there's no reason to complain about not getting primals on a test server...

BlackRoger
06-26-2015, 07:01 AM
600 set 3 packs - 16 primals

RamzaBehoulve
06-30-2015, 07:18 AM
I'm back. I'll be updating this shortly.

Audens
06-30-2015, 07:37 AM
Would be interesting to see the probability of getting these results if the true value is 2%.

RamzaBehoulve
07-04-2015, 09:50 AM
I did the final update. Taking error margin into account, especially due to primal pack feedback window being broken, it's rather safe to assume the primal proc rate is indeed 2% as rumored.