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Timlagor
06-23-2015, 05:34 PM
I have been told with great confidence that you have a 2% chance of getting a primal pack any time you get a new pack from the system (Store or Tournament winnings).

Can anyone point me to official confirmation of this?

There's a thread from the Test server suggesting 1.5% but eyeballing it I suspect 2% is within a pretty reasonable error bar for that data.

Shadowflame
06-23-2015, 05:52 PM
I don't think there's official confirmation. I also got around 1.5% on test server.

Gwaer
06-23-2015, 05:52 PM
I don't believe it has ever been officially confirmed, it's just what the community came up with from a bunch of set one data.

MasterN64
06-23-2015, 06:02 PM
Basically as they have already pointed out its not a concrete figure but roughly 2% is the generally agreed upon rate. Like with all things luck related your mileage may vary though.

Saeijou
06-23-2015, 09:21 PM
i think whenever someone asks for it, they lower the rate by 0.1% ;)

Ditsch
06-24-2015, 02:27 AM
All the new data collected suggests that 2% might be to high my own data from test servers is also around 1.5% and not 2%.
Well I doubt they made a different drop rate for the Test Server. So until someone has better data I stick to the answer it's 1.5% for the primal drop chance.

vickrpg
06-24-2015, 10:33 AM
I've always had the suspicion that it's not a round number, that they made it deliberately hard to guess.

I'm going with %1.7821636714611361813 exactly.

Kami
06-24-2015, 10:35 AM
It's actually π/2

Timlagor
06-24-2015, 11:22 AM
I thought I'd just not dug around enough.

I consider it extremely bad of them not to tell us this number in the context of packs selling through store and reselling through their own official channels (AH).

This is essential pricing information and I would not accept that 1.5% is "about 2%": that's a full 25% margin of error!


Not telling us how often Urrunaz comes out is bad but tolerable, this is not in the same category.

Barkam
06-24-2015, 11:27 AM
I thought I'd just not dug around enough.

I consider it extremely bad of them not to tell us this number in the context of packs selling through store and reselling through their own official channels (AH).

This is essential pricing information and I would not accept that 1.5% is "about 2%": that's a full 25% margin of error!


Not telling us how often Urrunaz comes out is bad but tolerable, this is not in the same category.

There is no ethical issue here...

Also, packs in AH have 0 chance of creating primal packs.

Fyren
06-24-2015, 11:51 AM
I thought I'd just not dug around enough.

I consider it extremely bad of them not to tell us this number in the context of packs selling through store and reselling through their own official channels (AH).

This is essential pricing information and I would not accept that 1.5% is "about 2%": that's a full 25% margin of error!


Not telling us how often Urrunaz comes out is bad but tolerable, this is not in the same category.

You just jammed my sarcasm detector. Granted, mine tends to have a high degree of uncertainty.

hex_colin
06-24-2015, 02:35 PM
You're all overthinking this. We know what the proc rate it. Do you really think Cory and the team are screwing with us every set and changing it up? They're not.

Poetic
06-24-2015, 02:37 PM
RNG is RNG.

Salverus
06-24-2015, 02:38 PM
what if the drop rate depends on the day of the week :confused:
to compensate for the mondays at the office they slightly increase the rate, then in the weekends when you are already happy they reduce it a tiny bit.

Gwaer
06-24-2015, 02:50 PM
Pretty sure the drop rate is dependant on account name, if it's my account it is 0% the further you are from my name the better the primal spawn chance.

hex_colin
06-24-2015, 02:54 PM
Pretty sure the drop rate is dependant on account name, if it's my account it is 0% the further you are from my name the better the primal spawn chance.

Exactly! So Colaer and Gwalin are both 50%. ;)

incitfulmonk21
06-24-2015, 03:09 PM
Exactly! So Colaer and Gwalin are both 50%. ;)

Primal Proc rate confirmed for Colaer and Gwalin by Colin. Creating accounts with names now. Selling primals cheap!

Zophie
06-24-2015, 07:41 PM
Just bought 700 Set 3 packs on the test server, got 18 primal packs. That's 2.57% drop rate from my sample.

Edit: I should also point out there is a thread on the test forum collecting this data if anyone else wants to contribute: http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=43809

Ariathor
06-25-2015, 03:33 AM
You're all overthinking this. We know what the proc rate it. Do you really think Cory and the team are screwing with us every set and changing it up? They're not.

Just to clarify, was there an official confirmation that it is 2%?

Ditsch
06-25-2015, 03:45 AM
Yeah there is a urban legend of the 2% each time I asked no one could show me to the statement they made, the team is aware of it and they never never said what it is in a official statement. I doubt we will get a answer this time, same with Urrunaz and also the same with the chance to get a Convocation Pack when the event is. I don't understand why they are always upfront with everything and give us all the data but on stuff like this they are silent.

Xenavire
06-25-2015, 06:31 AM
Yeah there is a urban legend of the 2% each time I asked no one could show me to the statement they made, the team is aware of it and they never never said what it is in a official statement. I doubt we will get a answer this time, same with Urrunaz and also the same with the chance to get a Convocation Pack when the event is. I don't understand why they are always upfront with everything and give us all the data but on stuff like this they are silent.

Hard data can influence things, and my guess is there are certain things they want to leave organic. I recall some comment along those lines early on, and it seems to hold true even now.

Mahes
06-25-2015, 07:04 AM
I say it is a 1.75% proc rate. That goes between the pessimistic and the optimistic percentage.

Ditsch
06-25-2015, 07:34 AM
I must add the 1.5% is the optimistic range, my own experience on live server is way less then 1% because I needed to win around 400 packs for the first primal to spawn for myself and it's the only one outside the Kickstarter ones I ever got.


I highly doubt giving out the data would have any influence on the data or behaviour of the people at least for the Primal packs. On "farmable" stuff like Uru or the convocation packs that might be possible but I still it see a more positive use in the end and to be upfront with such stuff. It totally bugs me why is that such a secret.

Saeijou
06-25-2015, 09:46 AM
3589

hex_colin
06-25-2015, 11:04 AM
No one is going to post "confirm", "primal", and "2%" in a completely unambiguous sentence. It's just not going to happen. But read between the lines people...

Saeijou
06-25-2015, 11:16 AM
No one is going to post "confirm", "primal", and "2%" in a completely unambiguous sentence. It's just not going to happen. But read between the lines people...

but why? what is so bad about knowing the rate? i mean, i'm fine with it not to be stated... but what would be so bad about it?
it wouldn't change anything about the fact...

the only difference i see is, that they can manipulate the value, whenever they want... but i don't think they will do it

hex_colin
06-25-2015, 11:20 AM
but why? what is so bad about knowing the rate? i mean, i'm fine with it not to be stated... but what would be so bad about it?
it wouldn't change anything about the fact...

the only difference i see is, that they can manipulate the value, whenever they want... but i don't think they will do it

Even if you never think you're going to do something, sometimes you still want to have the flexibility just in case.

Gwaer
06-25-2015, 11:23 AM
Any TCG community loves working out this stuff for ourselves. People put a lot of work and theories into many game elements. I personally don't think it would be a net positive to tell us everything. There are puzzles we can figure out and they should leave us free to figure them out. Regardless what any of our personal samples say I believe that the rate is very close to 2% I believe the data banks that up in the thread getting to figure it out. And I don't believe we should rely on them to tell us everything.

Zophie
06-25-2015, 11:50 AM
I don't know many games where drop rate percentages are normally given by devs to the players. The players generally have to work them out on their own if they want to figure out an approximate rate. WoW is the biggest example I can think of. They have tons of different loots and mounts and other rewards that have varying percentages for drop rates, and it's up to community sites like wowhead to collect statistics and figure out the percent chance as close as they can with their sample sizes available. I don't think Hex has any obligation to provide this data to us either. The community has already done a fine job collecting a lot of data, especially with the help of the test server, and it seems to be floating around 2% from what we've seen. That's close enough to give you an idea of what your odds are, and remember you still have to pray to Kismet that RNG favors you regardless of what the exact percentage is.

Timlagor
06-26-2015, 04:35 PM
Even if you never think you're going to do something, sometimes you still want to have the flexibility just in case.

They can perfectly well announce the rate and then announce a change if they want one.

"having it happen organically" in this context means: "you can't make good decisions"

This is not a drop rate in the normal sense because it is triggered on buying something.

israel.kendall
06-26-2015, 04:46 PM
No one is going to post "confirm", "primal", and "2%" in a completely unambiguous sentence. It's just not going to happen. But read between the lines people...

When I read between the lines this says "confirm primal 2%", thus confirming primals have a 2% chance?

Turboflex
06-27-2015, 02:19 PM
If someone is compiling data, I bought 900 and got 19

KingGabriel
06-28-2015, 04:23 AM
As I've said in that thread, that's a terrible way to collect data.

Vorpal
06-29-2015, 07:22 AM
As far as I can tell, the proc rate for primals from tournament winnings is 0%, while the one for VIP packs is also 0% :D

Xenavire
06-29-2015, 08:32 AM
As far as I can tell, the proc rate for primals from tournament winnings is 0%, while the one for VIP packs is also 0% :D

I never got one from VIP, but from tournaments I have. Also, some days the forums feel like mythbusters. :p

Timlagor
06-29-2015, 10:35 AM
You just jammed my sarcasm detector. Granted, mine tends to have a high degree of uncertainty.

For the sake of clarity: I wasn't being sarcastic.
Without knowing the proc rate you can't judge what an AH pack should cost (for a given primal pack price).

Given the value of the proc chance could be up to 20%* of the store purchase value and buying packs for 200p is arguably the primary revenue generation for CZE (tournament fees being the other major plat sink) I think it's wrong for them not to be straight with us about what we're buying.

I have yet to see any hint of a reason why anyone benefits from this figure not being officially public.
...actually it does benefit people who want to sell packs above their value to people who either don't know about the primal-proc chance at all or don't know/understand its value.


Just because many games don't tell you the formulae, doesn't mean it's the right thing to do -actually that's something I hate generally: it's generally pointless in terms of secrecy as people work them out quickly for most games and bad for people who want them as it's often hard to find out what the numbers actually mean without reading more spoilers than I want.



* assumes if 2% and 2000p primal pack (I realise the latter number is high but it's a nice round number and not ridiculous)

Yoss
06-30-2015, 04:00 PM
I am all in favor of open information systems, generally speaking. My AH profits were much higher before they released the API and all these price trackers popped up, but I don't care. Give me better efficiency and knowledge any day.