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View Full Version : Locked vs unlocked chests value difference



wolzarg
07-05-2015, 02:59 AM
I have to admit it the hype train is taking me to happy station right now. But one question that has been on my mind for a long long time is about the chest value. I really minmax my interactions with value as much as possible most times so i want to know. What does people think the value of a unlocked chest will be compared to a locked one and since wheel rewards are cheaper at common will that impact the price making commons the most expensive based on % of locked chest price?

Fyren
07-05-2015, 03:05 AM
I have to admit it the hype train is taking me to happy station right now. But one question that has been on my mind for a long long time is about the chest value. I really minmax my interactions with value as much as possible most times so i want to know. What does people think the value of a unlocked chest will be compared to a locked one and since wheel rewards are cheaper at common will that impact the price making commons the most expensive based on % of locked chest price?

What do you mean "Locked?"

You realize chests can be opened without being spun, right? o.o

Olfff
07-05-2015, 03:16 AM
A chest can only be "expensive" to the extent of the item it drops, as chests can't be traded between players.

katkillad
07-05-2015, 03:22 AM
A chest can only be "expensive" to the extent of the item it drops, as chests can't be traded between players.

They are tradeable in the next patch, you could list them on the auction house on the test server.

Shadowflame
07-05-2015, 03:39 AM
What do you mean "Locked?"

You realize chests can be opened without being spun, right? o.o

"Locked" meaning a chest that has already been spun. Unspun chests could be more valuable at the common level because they allow people to get those sleeves and other rewards from spinning for 1200 gold.

Xenavire
07-05-2015, 03:44 AM
Common chests that are unspun will have the most added value, due to the low cost of rolling. Since there will be little reason to buy a legendary chest for rolling purposes (chances are anyone buying big will go right for primal and skip legendary) so chances are that rares maybe have more added value than legendary chests.

I think unspun overall wont see a massive price jump over spun chests though.

Salverus
07-05-2015, 03:47 AM
it will also depend if there will be a price floor on the chests as well,
e.g. can all chests be listed at 3p minimum?
or does uncommon chests have to be 10p minimum, rare chests 30p minimum and legendary chests 50p minimum? because then i can guarantee all chests will be sold for the floor price, spun or unspun.

Vorsa
07-05-2015, 03:59 AM
It's a tough question...

I'm guessing that rarity trumps spun/unspun status, simply because the rarity-exclusive loot inside chests is likely to be prove very elusive.
If we assume that I have around an average distribution of chests:

Common = 47% (296 of 641)
Uncommon = 36% (231 of 641)
Rare = 12% (79 of 641)
Legendary = 5% (35 of 641)
Primal = 0% (0 of 641 :()

Even with only 1 item per common & uncommon chest, I certainly expect to have an excess of the rarity-exclusive loot at both rarities - which means their base worth to me is only the average worth of equipment.

With 2 items per rare chest their exclusive contents will only be 33% 'rarer' than uncommon chests, but that should be enough to tip supply over demand as people chase an elusive sleeve or 1 more copy of a PvE/AA card to complete a playset.

Even with 2 items in each legendary chest their exclusives will be massively 'rarer' by comparison, as they are seldom drawn naturally & I suspect many plays don't make a habit of spinning above uncommon to upgrade to this rarity - this will likely make them a seller's market.

Factoring in spun/unspun status...

Common chests:
Personally unspun will be a big draw for me with set 3 chests, but a complete non-factor for older sets - not sure how common that perspective will be amongst paying player-base as a whole..
Set 3 unspun common vs spun uncommon? I definitely see unspun common having the premium.
Set 3 unspun common vs spun higher rarities? Nope - there won't be enough rare & above chests about.

Uncommon chests:
Ditto on set being decisive aspect - the appeal of legendary exclusive loot will likely determine the value ceiling, since the only real selling point of uncommon over common is that a lucky hearts spin can reach legendary rarity.
Again; I wouldn't see an unspun set 3 one approaching the value of any higher rarity spun one.

Rare chests:
Personally I'm not looking to spin these in the slim hope of a primal, when gold can be turned 100% reliably into stardust, but maybe the primal loot (if there is such a loot tier - could just be an extra legendary item) will be a draw for others?
I don't see unspun status for any set carrying a heavy premium at this rarity, simply because the contents will already be driving demand and the spins are already an expensive gamble.

Legendary chests:
I can see these bucking the logic I had for rare chests, and actually carrying a significant unspun premium - simply because already at the top end of the market, where expensive upgrade roll gambles for primals aren't such a big deal (won't be the same player segment who are quibbling over the price of common vs uncommon spins).
Given the time-consuming nature of gold farming, will have to expect that unspun legendaries are going to be a hot platinum commodity - even the in-game richest players surely can't be paying a premium in gold for the opportunity to gamble vast amounts of that currency!

wolzarg
07-05-2015, 04:20 AM
To me the commons hold the most value as i don't have all the wof loot from any set yet. Mainly the uncommon pve cards so i will be trading for unspun commons and trading away unlocked legends for locked ones as all i want is the loot inside those.

Diesbudt
07-05-2015, 08:46 AM
I am wondering if I should open my last 5 set 2 packs to get the chests (i have full collection) and risk opening cheap cards, vs selling the packs them selves

wolzarg
07-05-2015, 10:10 AM
You can just wait for chests to land to have the information you need to make a educated decision.

magic_gazz
07-05-2015, 01:35 PM
Will be interesting to see.

I am still missing 2 sets of sleeves from set2, so I will need some common chests, assume a lot of people will.

I think my plan is to open all my spun chests, sell everything in them for gold and hope that it gives me back more than it cost to spin them. Then I can use that gold to buy and spin more chests.

Diesbudt
07-05-2015, 01:39 PM
I may offer my chests to people who want to roll them for like 10 platinum, they can spin them, and then give them back. If they are trying to get things still off the wheel. Idk would have to see if people would be interested in that

wolzarg
07-05-2015, 02:22 PM
Sounds absurdly expensive. You realize that you are saying that just the spin not even the chest it self is worth 10 plat and to add to that you want it back if they get a upgrade?

Diesbudt
07-05-2015, 02:23 PM
Sounds absurdly expensive. You realize that you are saying that just the spin not even the chest it self is worth 10 plat and to add to that you want it back if they get a upgrade?

Some people just want the spin rewards so bad, they may want to do that. You never know, was just a thought.

hex_colin
07-05-2015, 02:24 PM
Sounds absurdly expensive. You realize that you are saying that just the spin not even the chest it self is worth 10 plat and to add to that you want it back if they get a upgrade?

Nah, the prevalent transaction is going to be X unspun chests for X spun chests + (X times some amount of Platinum). I could easily see folks paying at least 10 Plat a chest for another chance at sleeves.

Diesbudt
07-05-2015, 02:25 PM
Nah, the prevalent transaction is going to be X unspun chests for X spun chests + (X times some amount of Platinum). I could easily see folks paying at least 10 Plat a chest for another chance at sleeves.

^

What i ment, though better worded. lol

wolzarg
07-05-2015, 02:31 PM
Nah, the prevalent transaction is going to be X unspun chests for X spun chests + (X times some amount of Platinum). I could easily see folks paying at least 10 Plat a chest for another chance at sleeves.
While i find that high i definitely agree i just don't think people will pay 10p to spin a chest that you have to give back if you get a upgrade. But locked + 10 for unlocked i can absolutely see someone doing.

Salverus
07-05-2015, 02:32 PM
does this mean pack price will increase as well?
I mean with 150p a pack and then trading an unspun chest for a spun chest with 10p, then open the chest for free and sell the loot, that means the content of the pack (so all 15 cards together) only have to be around 130p to be a profit?

wolzarg
07-05-2015, 02:35 PM
does this mean pack price will increase as well?
I mean with 150p a pack and then trading an unspun chest for a spun chest with 10p, then open the chest for free and sell the loot, that means the content of the pack (so all 15 cards together) only have to be around 130p to be a profit?
I would think card prices going down instead but i don't have a clue so hey. :P

Sparrow
07-05-2015, 03:16 PM
I wonder if unspun chests have a much greater value than spun ones if Hex will compensate us for the ones we've already spun?

j/k (wouldn't surprise me, though)

wolzarg
07-05-2015, 03:18 PM
I didn't get the slippery slope thing Colin was talking about... now i do holy hell.

I'm so very sorry Colin you have proven your wisdom and i appologize....

Fred
07-06-2015, 06:13 AM
Rare chests:
Personally I'm not looking to spin these in the slim hope of a primal, when gold can be turned 100% reliably into stardust, but maybe the primal loot (if there is such a loot tier - could just be an extra legendary item) will be a draw for others?

It has been confirmed by Cory on more than one occasion that primal chests have their own loot table, and that some items are only obtainable from primal chests. Depending on how chasey those primal-exclusive items will be, the value of unspun rares and legendaries could be affected.

plaguedealer
07-06-2015, 06:28 AM
I will be interested in knowing how many items are in a chest. Is it possible that they are like the convocation packs and contain one item only. I doubt it, but cant wait to see if alot of our questions are answered this friday.

wolzarg
07-06-2015, 07:28 AM
I will be interested in knowing how many items are in a chest. Is it possible that they are like the convocation packs and contain one item only. I doubt it, but cant wait to see if alot of our questions are answered this friday.
Last information was that commons had 1 and it scaled up from there to primal that had 3 i think. Don't quote me on specific numbers.

Ertzi
07-06-2015, 11:43 AM
Cool, I always thought every chest only had one item. Sweet if there will actually be more.

elfstone
07-06-2015, 02:07 PM
I dont remember where I heard it, but I think I remember common and uncommon hold 1 item, rare/legendary 2, and primal holds 3

Vorsa
07-06-2015, 03:10 PM
It's ancient news now in terms of Hex development, but in July 2013 that was indeed the plan:
http://www.hextcg.com/exclusives-treasure-and-mercenaries/

"Each pack of cards comes with a treasure chest. The chests range in rarity (common, uncommon, rare, legendary, and primal). Common and uncommon chests drop one item, rare and legendary chests drop two items, and primal chests drop three items! Each chest will have a loot table determined by the set it came from, so a treasure chest from set one will always drop loot from the set one loot table and the treasure chest will be marked as such."

However the very next line about stamped chests is completely inconsistent with how things ultimately panned out, so who knows if any of it is still valid...

plaguedealer
07-06-2015, 03:53 PM
It's ancient news now in terms of Hex development, but in July 2013 that was indeed the plan:
http://www.hextcg.com/exclusives-treasure-and-mercenaries/

"Each pack of cards comes with a treasure chest. The chests range in rarity (common, uncommon, rare, legendary, and primal). Common and uncommon chests drop one item, rare and legendary chests drop two items, and primal chests drop three items! Each chest will have a loot table determined by the set it came from, so a treasure chest from set one will always drop loot from the set one loot table and the treasure chest will be marked as such."

However the very next line about stamped chests is completely inconsistent with how things ultimately panned out, so who knows if any of it is still valid...

Yea, we learned later that the different types of chests will have different loot tables, so I am not sure if any of it is valid anymore. I can see a legendary having a legendary loot table with an additional rare loot table as an example. However, common chests should not have uncommon/rare/etc. loot tables.

Kaiba_Graysoul
07-06-2015, 03:58 PM
lets just hope we don't have a destiny situation, could you imagine the rage lol

Jonesy
07-06-2015, 05:14 PM
They are tradeable in the next patch, you could list them on the auction house on the test server.

You've actually been able to list them on the live AH for months...however you can't search for them and buy them =P.

ziggarius
07-08-2015, 08:49 AM
lets just hope we don't have a destiny situation, could you imagine the rage lol

What do you mean by destiny situation? Familiar with the game, but don't own a console so never played or care enough to know what happened there.

Vorpal
07-08-2015, 10:20 AM
What do you mean by destiny situation? Familiar with the game, but don't own a console so never played or care enough to know what happened there.

Basically you would open your legendary chest and whoops, it turned into a rare chest!

Saeijou
07-08-2015, 10:27 AM
Basically you would open your legendary chest and whoops, it turned into a rare chest!

as long it's an unrolled one :P

ziggarius
07-08-2015, 12:46 PM
Basically you would open your legendary chest and whoops, it turned into a rare chest!

Why would anyone come up with a system like that? Or was it a bug?

hacky
07-08-2015, 02:11 PM
Why would anyone come up with a system like that? Or was it a bug?

"Legendary Ingrams" that dropped would decode into a random item. Most of the time it would be a Rare item, but sometimes it would actually be a Legendary item.

It was intentional to begin with. They fixed it, I think, but not before much "Grats on your purple, it's probably a blue".

Who knows who thought that would be a good idea. :P

Vorpal
07-09-2015, 12:15 PM
Why would anyone come up with a system like that? Or was it a bug?

It was not a bug. It was a deliberate design choice, though obviously a terrible one.

They changed it later after massive community outcry.

Crimguy
07-09-2015, 01:16 PM
So when are we going to be able to actually open these chests?

Tazelbain
07-09-2015, 01:20 PM
Next week.

Crimguy
07-09-2015, 10:03 PM
Nice.