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Vorsa
07-12-2015, 06:21 AM
Has there been a consensus reached as to what the approximate odds are on the WoF chest upgrade outcomes?
It would be very helpful/interesting to put in perspective, when the lure of chest loot looms large... :)

Source #1 - Chromus' thread (http://forums.cryptozoic.com/showthread.php?t=34986)

Sample size: 2,167 chests
Findings:

Upgrade = 12%
Upgrade x 2 = 3%
N.B. Doesn't distinguish between basic upgrade (3 eyes) and basic upgrade + paid spin (3 gloves).

12% Approximates to 8 spins to get a single upgrade:
8 Common spins = 9,600 gold to produce an uncommon chest.
8 Uncommon spins = 24,800 gold to produce a rare chest.
8 Rare spins = 66,000 gold to produce a legendary chest.
3% Approximates to 33 spins to get a double upgrade:
33 Common spins = 39,600 gold to produce a rare chest.
33 Uncommon spins = 102,300 gold to produce a legendary chest.
33 Rare spins = 280,500 gold to produce a primal chest.
As either result will upgrade a legendary to a primal, the combined 15% approximates to 1 in 7 spins:
7 Legendary spins = 210,000 gold to produce a primal chest.
No tremendous surprises there...
1. Even with cost increments, the most efficient way to aim for a rarity is to spin chests 1 rarity lower.
2. For primal chasers, having a big stack of rare chests to spin is almost the same efficiency as legendaries.
3. It seems likely that chests & chest loot will be massively cheaper than the cost of upgrades, outside of primals!

Source #2 - Showsni's post

Sample size: 1,003 chests
Findings:

Upgrade = 5.2%
Upgrade w/ spin = 8.1%
Upgrade x 2 = 3.6%
28 Rare spins = 238,000 gold to produce a primal chest.
6 Legendary spins = 180,000 gold to produce a primal chest.

Source #3 - Fred's post

Sample size: 709 chests
Findings:

Upgrade = 6.6%
Upgrade w/ spin = 6.4%
Upgrade x 2 = 3.2%
31 Rare spins = 263,500 gold to produce a primal chest.
7 Legendary spins = 210,000 gold to produce a primal chest.

Xenavire
07-12-2015, 06:29 AM
The only blocked rolls are chest sleeves (once you have them.) Every other roll can happen, regardless of rarity. That includes upgrade rolls on primal chests.

Hope that helps. :)

LNQ
07-12-2015, 06:40 AM
Thanks for the summary.

Yes, you can get double upgrades on legendary, at least a bit after Set 2 release I got a few. You can even get upgrades on a primal chest.

poizonous
07-12-2015, 07:51 AM
Wish I kept track of my spins to have an official answer but i know the results i have had are much higher than those #'s.

Vorsa
07-12-2015, 08:02 AM
Thank Xenavire, LNQ - updated post to reflect.

wolzarg
07-12-2015, 08:23 AM
I know alchemys numbers are different not saying either is correct but if i remember correctly he claimed it cost aproximately 120k gold per primal be it from rare or legend.

Stormlight
07-12-2015, 09:43 AM
My numbers (from 1,083 chest rolls):

52 chest upgrade (triple eye)
86 chest upgrade + paid spin (triple hand) (9 of these were triple red or gold symbols, so didn't actually get the paid spin)
15 double chest upgrade + paid spin (triple heart) (1 triple gold didn't get the paid spin)

So my sample size is roughly half the original quoted source, but it has roughly the same numbers (closer to 13% for single upgrade, less than 1.5% for double) (double upgrade is rare enough that it needs a larger sample size to be more sure of the exact chance).

(Speaking of small sample sizes, this week of bonus gold from Arena has been very good to me; five rolls on legendary chests resulted in one re-roll and four primals!)

Vorsa
07-12-2015, 09:46 AM
(Speaking of small sample sizes, this week of bonus gold from Arena has been very good to me; five rolls on legendary chests resulted in one re-roll and four primals!)

:eek: Hire yourself out as a chest opener!

Stormlight
07-12-2015, 10:04 AM
Sadly, those aren't my usual results. Before this week, I had eleven rolls on legendary chests and only two upgrades to primal (which is actually above the expected amount, come to think of it).

Tarquin
07-13-2015, 12:43 AM
Sadly, those aren't my usual results. Before this week, I had eleven rolls on legendary chests and only two upgrades to primal (which is actually above the expected amount, come to think of it).

Yeah, but if you have a very low sample, you'll always see strange things

you can't know the chance of rolling a 6 on a 6 sided die if you only roll twice :p

Showsni
07-13-2015, 05:00 AM
Here are my numbers RE upgrades:

Of 361 spins on common set 1 chests, 30 upgrade to uncommon + paid spin (two with the paid spin replaced by 5000 gold, 1 with the paid spin replaced by a booster), 18 upgrade to uncommon (1 with + 5000 gold), 12 double upgrade to rare + paid spin

8.3% chance three hands, 5.0% chance three eyes, 3.3% chance three hearts.

Of 296 spins on common set 2 chests, 17 upgrade to uncommon + paid spin, 12 upgrade to uncommon, 12 double upgrade to rare + paid spin.

5.7% chance three hands, 4.1% chance three eyes, 4.1% chance three hearts.

Of 170 spins on uncommon set 1 chests, 19 upgrade to rare + paid spin (1 with 5000 gold instead of a spin), 10 upgrade to rare (1 with + a booster), 6 double upgrade to legendary + paid spin (1 with a booster instead of a spin).

11.2% chance three hands, 5.9% chance three eyes, 3.5% chance three hearts.

Of 128 spins on uncommon set 2 chests, 13 upgrade to rare + paid spin (1 with a booster instead of the spin), 9 upgrade to rare (1 with + a booster), 4 double upgrade to legendary + paid spin.

10.2% chance three hands, 7% chance three eyes, 3.1% chance three hearts

Of 27 spins on rare set 1 chests, 2 upgrade to legendary + paid spin, 1 upgrade to legendary, 1 double upgrade to primal + paid spin.

7.4% chance three hands, 3.7% chance three eyes, 3.7% chance three hearts.

Of 18 spins on rare set 2 chests, 1 upgrade to legendary, 1 double upgrade to primal + paid spin.

0% chance three hands, 5.6% chance three eyes, 5.6% chance three hearts.

Of 1 spin on primal set 1 chests, 1 upgrade to primal.

0% chance three hands, 100% chance three eyes, 0% chance three hearts.

Of 2 spins on primal set 2 chests, no upgrades.

0% chance three hands, 0% chance three eyes, 0% chance three hearts.

Adding it all up...

8.1% chance of three hands, 5.2% chance of three eyes, 3.6% chance of three hearts.

Fred
07-13-2015, 06:30 AM
Here are my numbers so far:

709 total spins
47 single-upgrades through triple eyes
46 single-upgrades through triple hands
23 double-upgrades through triple hearts

That's a 16.4% upgrade rate.

Abidar
07-13-2015, 06:58 AM
So I have a single legendary chest and I'm only a squire tier backer that started playing only two weeks ago (I stupidly opened all my packs but since 221 draft is going away tomorrow I feel I didn't lose out too much by doing so). I can grind the arena a few times on weekends but weekdays is tricky so my gold earning is relatively low. Add to that the fact that my deck that I spent so much time grinding and buying is dwarf/artifact which I hear is about to receive a huge nerf (by way of tinkerer's robes). I have just enough for 1 spin.

My question to the community: is it worth it? Should I risk it all on unknown rewards? Or use that money to build up the next good arena clearing deck?

bwarner
07-13-2015, 07:06 AM
I would definitely recommend against using all your money on spinning a legendary chest. In fact, I'd probably say you are better off selling the chest early on if demand is high, and using the money from the chest and your current savings to work on your deck. Generally prices for new stuff is abnormally high the first few days, so you might be able to come out ahead by opening the chest and selling its contents, but just like packs, I think you're likely to do better by selling them unopened. As a player with a fairly limited collection, you'll get much better entertainment and income value off a bunch of new cards than you will off some exotic chest item.

HitoZ
07-13-2015, 08:03 AM
I don't have exact numbers so sorry about that. But I can only give you a percentage i had while spinning chests on test server, number was around 20%. I was only spinning common chests.

ziggarius
07-13-2015, 09:54 AM
So I have a single legendary chest and I'm only a squire tier backer that started playing only two weeks ago (I stupidly opened all my packs but since 221 draft is going away tomorrow I feel I didn't lose out too much by doing so). I can grind the arena a few times on weekends but weekdays is tricky so my gold earning is relatively low. Add to that the fact that my deck that I spent so much time grinding and buying is dwarf/artifact which I hear is about to receive a huge nerf (by way of tinkerer's robes). I have just enough for 1 spin.

My question to the community: is it worth it? Should I risk it all on unknown rewards? Or use that money to build up the next good arena clearing deck?

Honestly, I think the dwarf deck is going to be good still. It's just not going to board wipe the enemy, it still has the advantage of being super fast aggro that is generally hard to remove via artifacts. Tinkerer's robes will let you snipe key targets dead (dreamer's chosen one's for example and such) still.

LNQ
07-13-2015, 10:02 AM
I agree that the dwarf nerf will not impact the decks success rate too much.

Vorsa
07-13-2015, 10:45 AM
Thanks Showsni, Fred - updated original post. :cool:

bwarner
07-13-2015, 11:10 AM
So based on this math, we know what the maximum price difference between the rarity levels of chests should be. Using that as a basis and assuming that we won't quite approach the maximum, we might see AH for spun chests at something like

Common = 500G
Uncommon = 5,000G
Rare = 20,000G
Legendary = 70,000G
Primal = 250,000G

Do people think those are in the right ballpark, or do they seem too high? I'm guessing chest prices will start out high and then come down as the collectors get what they need and the demand dies down.

x78089
07-13-2015, 11:18 AM
So based on this math, we know what the maximum price difference between the rarity levels of chests should be. Using that as a basis and assuming that we won't quite approach the maximum, we might see AH for spun chests at something like

Common = 500G
Uncommon = 5,000G
Rare = 20,000G
Legendary = 70,000G
Primal = 250,000G

Do people think those are in the right ballpark, or do they seem too high? I'm guessing chest prices will start out high and then come down as the collectors get what they need and the demand dies down.
I'm willing to bet that primals go for more than that.

Vorsa
07-13-2015, 11:27 AM
I'm willing to bet that primals go for more than that.

Probably, as it's not just the spin cost they represent but also 5-8 legendary chests to facilitate those spins...

bwarner
07-13-2015, 11:46 AM
So what level of chest do Primal packs usually generate? Because even a legendary chest would be essentially the same value as a good (but not great) legendary card.

Showsni
07-13-2015, 11:49 AM
So what level of chest do Primal packs usually generate? Because even a legendary chest would be essentially the same value as a good (but not great) legendary card.

They always give a Legendary chest.

bwarner
07-13-2015, 12:03 PM
If Legendary chests really do sell for around 70,000 G, that would seem to significantly improve the expected value of primal packs. I wish I had enough money to go invest in some off the AH.

x78089
07-13-2015, 05:01 PM
If Legendary chests really do sell for around 70,000 G, that would seem to significantly improve the expected value of primal packs. I wish I had enough money to go invest in some off the AH.

It seems unlikely legendary chests will sell that high. But if they do it will def drive the price of primals up.

spankydonkey
07-14-2015, 05:20 AM
Quarter of a mill gold for a primal chest, really?
Going on todays market prices that's best part of 3000 plat/$30.

I do know the very cheapest you can get 1 for is by spinning a Rare & doubling up 1st spin, 8200 gold.
That's going to be very rare, but some profit if you manage it.

I'm so looking forward to opening my chests, very sad that's not going to happen today!

Metronomy
07-14-2015, 09:40 AM
i do think people underestimate the value of a primal chest...i exspect 4k plat in 2 weeks and 10k plat in a year (at least for set 2)

you need more than 220/288k gold for a primal in average..you also need 33 unspun rare chests (7 legendary)...those chests are limited...even in a year only a very tiny amount of players will have all 3 set 2 sleeves...but there are many people who are willing to pay high prices for rare sleeves...and its not only the sleeve..the aa and the equip also will have high value

poizonous
07-14-2015, 09:42 AM
i do think people underestimate the value of a primal chest...i exspect 4k plat in 2 weeks and 10k plat in a year (at least for set 2)

you are absolutely bonkers.... I mean trust me my 14 primal chests hope you are right but there is 0% chance a chest gets this expensive

Metronomy
07-14-2015, 09:47 AM
how many set 2 primals...14 is a very high number...believe me...infamousneo has 1 set 2 primal

ziggarius
07-14-2015, 09:47 AM
how many set 2 primals...14 is a very high number...believe me...infamousneo has 1 set 2 primal

I'm sitting on 3 set 2 primals myself, and I know I draft like a third that Ne0 does.

poizonous
07-14-2015, 09:48 AM
8 set 1 6 set 2

I spun plenty of legendary chests though so that is why

Metronomy
07-14-2015, 09:52 AM
remind yourself...us who are writing here probably play way more than the average user..you also have to take all those people into account that come into the game in a week and after that...there is probably no realistic way they get set 2 primal chests just by playing the game...even 6 set 2 primals probably arent enough to get all 3 sleeves...initially the price will be around 1,5k i would imagine but with the time the price will only go up (once people realize they are out of unspun rare and legendary chests and still need sleeves that one equipment and many alternate art cards)

poizonous
07-14-2015, 02:34 PM
Hey metro as I said, I hope you are right, i just cant see any chest selling for that much money. Are we saying a Primal chest... which has the chance of producing a sleeve which has 0 value, can be worth as much as an AA CMK?

magic_gazz
07-14-2015, 03:51 PM
Hey metro as I said, I hope you are right, i just cant see any chest selling for that much money. Are we saying a Primal chest... which has the chance of producing a sleeve which has 0 value, can be worth as much as an AA CMK?

You cant sell sleeves. That does not mean they have no value.

Showsni
07-14-2015, 07:50 PM
If anything, exclusive sleeves in primal chests makes them more expensive.

Metronomy
07-14-2015, 08:32 PM
all im saying is this: initially you will see a few primal chests being up for sale (imo most likely underprized)..in a year you will almost guaranteed see next to none set 2 primal chests being offered for sale (each chest can only be opened once and the number is just too rare)...so..if you wanna get those set 2 sleeves in a year you have next to no option then to pay next to any price for a primal chest (sellers market)

magic_gazz
07-14-2015, 08:47 PM
Im opening my primals, but if I don't get the sleeves im putting in a support ticket.

Metronomy
07-14-2015, 08:49 PM
on another note: I realy hope they will surprise us with a legendary AA for set 2. We know there is a mastery of time AA waiting for set 1. Would only make sense to also have a legendary for set 2.

Yoss
07-14-2015, 10:44 PM
Im opening my primals, but if I don't get the sleeves im putting in a support ticket.

A support ticket because some vanity item that is supposed to be super rare didn't drop for you?

Metronomy
07-14-2015, 11:42 PM
i may be wrong here but i think it was meant as a joke^^

magic_gazz
07-15-2015, 01:30 AM
A support ticket because some vanity item that is supposed to be super rare didn't drop for you?


i may be wrong here but i think it was meant as a joke^^

^ He gets it

Yoss
07-15-2015, 10:22 AM
Sarcasm doesn't carry over text very well, obviously.