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View Full Version : To roll or not to roll?



Ogodei
07-23-2015, 09:00 AM
Actually I haven't bothered much with chest rolling yet, since I wasn't sure if it's really worth the gold investment. Especially since tournaments no longer reward gold, I've been pretty much sitting on it, hesitant on investing it anywhere, including AH.

But now with chest opening inplemented it's time for me to figure out the best strategy. How foolish is it to open a chest without spinning it? Is gold eventually better invested into buying actual packs & cards on the AH?

Some advice & opinions would be much appreciated, maybe someone has tried to do the math?

Lawlschool
07-23-2015, 09:43 AM
Rolling chests is a gamble, plain and simple.

I believe when the WoF first came out, people discovered that the loot tables and chances at WoF loot were virtually identical between the chest rarities. Thus, Common chests are going to be the most economical source for WoF loot, and for the most part, you're rolling the other chests in the hopes of upgrading to a better rarity (and hoping the better equipment is worth at least as much as the gold you spent upgrading that chest).

Even assuming a generous 50% chance at a single upgrade (definitely not the case), and assuming all rare chests give rare loot (also not the case), you'll be looking to sell the rare equip for 6.4k gold in order to recoup two spins on an uncommon. While it's still too early to get a solid grasp of the value of Rare equips, a quick scan of the AH shows that a lot of Rare equipment are up for well less than 6.4k gold.

Back to the gambling point, I don't think it's a coincidence that the WoF is essentially a slot machine. And like real slot machines, most of your money is going down the drain. Sure, there's a chance you might hit the jackpot, but on average the house is always going to win.

Audens
07-23-2015, 09:47 AM
Whether chest spinning is worth the gold or not is a very difficult question to answer, but I would definitely not open a chest without spinning it. The better course of action would be to sell your unspun chest and use the proceeds to buy spun chests, which should be cheaper, although you may want to wait for the market to stabilize before doing so.

Incindium
07-23-2015, 10:44 AM
Common chests are +EV rolling them just for the WoF rewards without factoring in any value in upgrading them. I think Uncommons may be as well. The plat value of packs, cards, stardust, mercs spinning them is likely worth more than gold used to do the spinning(this is assuming gold is worth in the 85-100:1p ratio)

Rares and above you are going to want to roll only if you are looking to generate Primal chests for their sweet sweet sleeves and loot but the value proposition is less certain.

DanTheMeek
07-23-2015, 10:57 AM
I haven't run the numbers to confirm anything myself, but numbers from other threads and even those presented by Lawlschool here suggest only common chests are worth rolling. Now whether or not its better to sell uncommon or greater unrolled chests and use the proceeds to buy pre-rolled ones, to simply open the chests with out rolling them at all, or sit on them in the hopes that HXE reduces the uncommon and above roll costs in the future to something that makes a bit more sense, that I can't say. For the time being I'm just sitting on my uncommon+ unrolled chests myself, but I don't have any expectations that costs will be reduced, I'm really just hoping some one with more free time then me will really crunch the numbers and answer that question for me as to which is the best road to take.