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Thread: Noob Question - Digital Booster Packs

  1. #11
    I never even thought about the Physical print run aspect.

    I know it wouldn't matter in the long run, but I would hate to open a booster with 11 of the same common, especially in draft.

    But drafting reminded me of the drafting article, where he mentioned the color spread among the players was about even. So I imagine they have a decent algorithm in place already.

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by houjix View Post
    They will probably run as if it were a physical print run to ensure there is a real distribution of cards. If it were truly random, you could open up the same 15 cards in every booster and that wouldn't be very fun would it??
    If it was truly random and you opened up a pack with the same 15 cards which (is not possible because of the distribution) but let's ignore that. The chances of getting 15 of the same card would be

    1/350 to the 15th power. GOOD LUCK even if it was 11 cards the same it would still be 1/350 to 11nth power. I think you will be ok.

    Edit: I was curious so I went to wolframalpha and 1/350 to the 11nth is

    1/9,654,915,737,304,687,500,000,000,000

    So yeah I think your chances are pretty low.

    And this is your chance of getting 4 cards the same (1/350)^4 * (349/350)^7

    630,634,881,591,804,949/9,654,915,737,304,687,500,000,000,000

    roughly 6.53 x 10^-11 or .00000000653%


    Disclaimer:
    These are not the exact statistics because I'm not taking into account the fact that there is not 350 common but you can see that even if we subtract the number of rare cards and uncommon there will be, the shear number of cards that there are will make it almost impossible to have that many duplicates. (At least in one pack)
    Last edited by Blare731; 05-11-2013 at 03:09 PM.
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  3. #13
    Well that's the extreme, but you've done the math wrong anyways.

    There's 350 cards in a set, but there tends to be more unique rares and uncommon then commons, not to mention legendaries.

    Let's say there's only 50 individual commons, so it's only 1/50 chance of getting a specific common. But if it's any common? Then the probably is more likely. Or similiar commons?

    But how many is too many of duplicates? Especially in draft. If you say 5 or more of the same common in a pack is bad, then the probably gets even more likely. Till the point its entirely probable.

    I'd hate to be in a draft, drafting Shin'hare one pack, then open the second pack with 7 or 8 Shin'hare commons.

  4. #14
    Devoted Emissary
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    I think this is a bit silly, it's not like virtual packs is a new thing. Mtgo does it, lots of random online games do it, and honestly, it'll probably be more random then physical, since i've seen the same commons in the same order in a couple of sequential magic packs

  5. #15
    Mehlo that's because they do print runs. Cards are ran off in groups, and cut and packaged together.

    It's actually a good thing for digital packs to be LESS then completely random, this is mostly from a draft and sealed perspective.

  6. #16
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    I would assume something along the line of the algorithim saying no two copies of the same card, and possibly an overall variable that makes the odds of cards in packs slightly vary compared to the ammount that have been opened, evening out the variance over time.

  7. #17
    Gigantisaur
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    There are booster randomizer on draft website, I'm sure a game like HEX will have a good booster randomizer system

    ~

  8. #18
    Yeah, I'm not worried about them doing it right, but I had never thought into the scope of the algorithm.

    Beyond just making sure there's not doubles of a card you need to make sure there is a good range of variation among the Gem types, among the races, Troops versus non-troops. All these things affect the draft/sealed format, as well as a starting player's deck construction ability.

    I think Cryptozoic has this underhand, but the it definitely goes beyond just a simple RNG.

  9. #19
    I'm assuming the distribution of common cards is looking more like 150-200 cards. And even to have 1 card that appears once in all 8 packs will be (1/150or200) ^ 8.... And I mean you can do this with all the possibilities. If I assume the number of shinhare are an equal distribution of 1/6 of the cards then 1/6 of 150 = 25.

    Then the probability in on pack that you will get a certain number of them is

    11Cx * 1/6^x * 5/6^(11-x) where x is the number of cards you want shinhare to be in a single pack. Then since the packs are independent of one another raise that formula to the power of however many packs are going to be in play so for instance 8.

    So if you want me to calculate a probability I will np.

    Edit: of course this is all assuming true probability (which even computers can't simulate but it's still how people do things)
    Last edited by Blare731; 05-11-2013 at 03:29 PM.
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  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Erebus View Post
    There's 350 cards in a set, but there tends to be more unique rares and uncommon then commons, not to mention legendaries.
    Is this true across TCGs? I've played Magic and A Game of Thrones, and I'm pretty sure that the former was an even split between rarities. I know for a fact that the latter did this. I'm not sure how legendary cards will mix this up, but I'd be surprised if commons didn't make up about one third of the set.

    I'm starting to think I misunderstood what you posted.

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