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Thread: Primal packs question

  1. #21
    Ill sell you my primal packs for $60 each :/

  2. #22
    Yea ok, I had a brain fart there...it's 5am here. Depending on if packs ever get discontinued they could still be more valuable than 15 packs eventually.3

  3. #23
    Rigid Buffalo
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    Price is fairly easy to speculate on. If we take a game with a similar rarity distribution (Magic). We know that, in general, rares have a relatively low value. Packs cost $4 (MSRP), and the average rare is <$1-2 (from big sellers, much closer to <$1 when you buy from other players - eBay). Mythics range widely in individual price, but the average price from set to set is about $5-6 (again from big retailers, closer to $4 on eBay). The big take home is that, on average, you are better served by buying the specific singles you need than opening a pack. This is why packs only sell for about $2.5 from online retailers, and a little less from other players.

    On to Hex. We know that normal packs are 11 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 rare/legendary

    We don't know what the odds of rare vs. legendary are, but let's say that they use an MtG-like rarity distribution (in every 8 packs 1 there will be legendary). Now, we also don't know what a primal pack will be like, but let's assume that this distribution holds. That means that a primal pack will have, on average 1.875 legendarys. This means that we can expect a primal pack to have almost 2 legendary cards and 13 rares. This sounds really good, and indeed, it is far better than a normal pack. However, if there are, say 15 legendary cards in a given set, the odds are that only some are going to be desirable, and the prices will range significantly. In Magic, the low value mythics are $1.50 (retailers) and the big money ones are generally $40 or less with very few exceptions for in-print cards. Most money ones are more like $8-20 from (retailers). Rares are generally more stable. Good rares sell for $3-5 (retail) and very good rares can go as high as $10, with very rare outliers going up to $30 for in print sets (you see maybe 1 of these year). An average Magic Primal pack (if they existed) would be worth about $30.

    So, let's translate this to Hex. We can halve the prices (because Hex boosters are half the price of magic ones). This gives us an average price of a pack at $15. That's the equivalent of 7.5 boosters. Now, if you whiff on 2 legendaries and just get 1 that drops significantly. If you get 3 it goes up significantly. We have no idea what the distribution in a primal pack would be, but I think it's reasonable to extrapolate from the normal rate, and I think the rate used in Magic is a logical base in the absence of better information.

    So, will primal packs sell for whatever the value of 7.5 packs is? I doubt it, I think they'll be a little more expensive (maybe 9-10 packs) in value because they are inherently more exciting to open. It's important to remember that packs will likely sell for less than MSRP on the auction house (why go through the AH for $2 in plat when you could just pay CZ $2 and have a shot at a primal pack?). This means that primals won't be worth $18-20, but rather 9-10 times the value that normal packs sell for on the AH (I would guess between $1-1.50 with the first set being a bit depressed because of a flooded market.

    How rare will they be? I assume far more rare than their value would indicate. I would imagine something like 1:50-1:100, but that is pure guesswork.

  4. #24
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    Karnegal I like how you think. That sounds good and even if it turns out to be wrong I like you for it.

    Going to be hard to decide what to do with a primal for me - the desire to cash out vs the excitement of opening a whole bunch of rares/legendaries.
    Hi, my name is Malicus and my will to resist Hex is weak.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Malicus View Post
    Karnegal I like how you think. That sounds good and even if it turns out to be wrong I like you for it.

    Going to be hard to decide what to do with a primal for me - the desire to cash out vs the excitement of opening a whole bunch of rares/legendaries.
    That question will be answered for me depending on if I (1) Still need rares/legendaries to complete the set and (2) How many different rares or legendaries I need for decks. If I have multiple decks that need more of various rares and such it might be better to open the pack and sell the ones I don't need, but if I only need one or two rare/legendary cards for a deck then the pack will probably get sold and that platinum go toward getting the singles.

  6. #26
    Rigid Buffalo
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    I think Malicus has it right. On average, you're making a decision of excitement vs. value. Over a large sample size, you'll probably be better served by just selling your primal packs and buying singles. However, it is pretty exciting to open a god pack, though I don't know if it's as exciting knowing that it's a god pack going in (I once opened an L5R deck that has something like 75-80% rares. That was pretty exciting because there was no reason to ever expect that that could happen).

    What's important to note is that if primal packs are indeed rare (and I assume that will be the case) most players will receive very few in the course of the time as players. This means that individual experiences with them will be pretty swingy. Someone might open 3 over the course of a year and it 1 has 4 legendary cards, they're really going to remember that.

    With all of that said, I'll probably open my free KS one because it's exciting, and then I'll probably sell future ones.

  7. #27
    I don't have any market price knowledge or anything but from what i can see primal will be about 10x of same set booster unless it primals have a higher chance of legendary. 10x means you have 10 r/l, 30 uc and 110 c. Lets say the c sells for 5cents and the uc for 10cents on average. That will be $8.50 which is equivalent to 4 packs.

    Maybe its a little too optimistic to assume that the cards will get sold at all due to the flood of set 1 cards. Which may or may not be balance by the card sink through crafting. It might need to wait for the card value to be more stable after launch with new non KS players.

  8. #28
    First in my concideration I don't believe there is a disproportionate flood of the entire set 1.
    I'm not saying there isn't a @&#* tonne of cards but lets be rationale, the majority are commons and they will likely see the heavy end of the crafting hammer.
    I'm lined up to recieve 300+ boosters. I saw somewhere that an aprox avg per backer was 120 somewhat recently. So lets use that. I'm sure someone can correct me if needed?
    Now first starting with rares and legendaries. Concider that you need a play set or 4 of a card if you desire as playable.
    If legendary is say 1:8 ratio that means likely @ 120 packs you see 15 legendaries. Your not going to have a playset of jack!
    So onto rare 7:8 ratio, thats 105. Lets say by a miracle you recieve no more than 4 of a single rare you now have 26 rare playsets! dont know how many rares are in set 1 but I'd speculate at least double that of 50+
    So fear that a healthy primal drop rate will bring the roof down is just not relivent in my mind, within this outlook.
    Ok so...
    I doubt as a one time investment ill ever have the experience or card geek joy of having this many packs again in a hit!
    If the primal rate is .5 - 1% then there's a good chance ill recieve <2 possibly even 0 primals. Because there is no distrobution to make sure I do get 1:100 or if .5% 1:200 its individually calculated!
    Now that is an aweful kick in the teeth!!
    Seriously, really think about it. It's truly depressing if the drop rate is that low and that's with 300 packs!
    At 300 packs this is my time to shine for the once off experience that it truly is.
    That ratio gets worse for those that couldn't afford that level of buy in but still made a substantial buyin of $120 or $250.
    Personally I don't know what the objective CZE had in introducing primals but I'm sure it was an awesome idea to further reward us as kickstarters and the player base in general by enhancing that child like magic of pack opening by using the advantages of digital. To give us that cool Easter egg. Surely not to make it so rare that it makes us jaded to hear when some one scores one.
    When I here a backer say " so cool man I got 5 primal packs day one, here's some of the phat lootz I got...." I want my reaction to be "man, that's sweet as I got something like that too.... What was your favourite.." Not "@&$# you man, I never win crap"

    Now don't confuse this will a feeling of entitlement or CZE owing us or maximising value!
    I pledged what I pledged for my belief, support and hope of the games vision. Chosen based on the rewards offered and in case of GK i admit lol a hope of a really cool escalation benefit on the last stretch as well as my thoughts that we currently under value the PVE content that I'm expecting to be imersive!
    Rather I want to see this primal mechanic be that little treat that I'm sure it's intended to be not a frustration.
    Anyways that's more than my .02c

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Tyrfang View Post
    Personally, I would prefer a system where you receive a token that could be exchange from a primal pack randomly in packs, rather than immediately knowing it's a primal pack.

    It would be much more exciting because you discover after opening a pack, rather than immediately after buying it.

    ...oh well. (Also, in that case, you can get them in drafts packs without affecting the draft itself.)
    This would have been a great implementation.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gwaer View Post
    This would have been a great implementation.
    The upshot of the token system is that you could open one in a draft (assume that whoever opens it keeps it). Beyond that, I think the feeling is pretty similar. I buy a set of packs to draft later, BAM one is a primal cue fistpump.

    To the guy above, as I said before, 1:50-1:100 seems perfectly reasonable for primals. I don't think that we should be seeing stacks of them through KS pledges. Each pack is essentially a bonus dozen packs.

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