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Thread: 17 resources in a draft deck, consistently screwed.

  1. #1
    Sensei of the Wounded Petal
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    17 resources in a draft deck, consistently screwed.

    Been noticing it a while now and just a moment ago in the first round of a draft I found myself on no more than 4 resources in all 3 games. Is 17 just not enough? The last round I had 9 Ruby and 8 Diamond and didn't see one diamond in matches 2 and 3, each game had 10-15 turns.

  2. #2
    Mostly confirmation bias, but with certain decks 17 won't be enough. It's a good baseline but slower decks with higher threshold requirements (especially with no shards of fate) might need one or two more.

    Check out your resource probabilities on stattrek (google "hypergeometric calculator") to figure out your chances of getting what you need, when you need it. I usually consider a probability of 85-90% good for my core cards, and 75-85% good for situational picks. Your tolerance for error is personal preference.
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  3. #3
    Master Theorycrafter
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    Quote Originally Posted by primer View Post
    Been noticing it a while now and just a moment ago in the first round of a draft I found myself on no more than 4 resources in all 3 games. Is 17 just not enough? The last round I had 9 Ruby and 8 Diamond and didn't see one diamond in matches 2 and 3, each game had 10-15 turns.
    In a 12 turn game, you had a 95% chance of drawing a diamond shard. So to do that twice in a row is quite unfortunate.
    Member of Cornerstone & The Unnamed Council- Fan of hex.tcgbrowser.com - Has sigs turned off on the forum

  4. #4
    Sensei of the Wounded Petal
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    I generally have been using just 14 resources, usually split for dual shard, in a standard 40 card draft deck. No problems, I would consider 17 to be more then enough. However this depends on your play style and if you like to stack your deck with high costs bombs.
    http://i633.photobucket.com/albums/u...psd1d4cbf2.png

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  5. #5
    I personally like to have at least 24 "resource" cards (these could an actual Shard, or Howling Brave, or Chlorophyllia, etc.). In my experience, fewer than that can be too risky. Of course, this could also be an artifact of my (low) level of deck-building skill.

    Edit: I was assuming a 60-card deck - sorry for any confusion!

  6. #6
    That is pretty bad odds. I had to cut to 17 from 18 because I was flooding out, and still tend to flood out when I play. It also depends on what you draft, as having a higher curve in draft tends to be best in many cases, and leans towards 18 resources for 40 card decks.

  7. #7
    Sensei of the Wounded Petal
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cato View Post
    I generally have been using just 14 resources, usually split for dual shard, in a standard 40 card draft deck. No problems, I would consider 17 to be more then enough. However this depends on your play style and if you like to stack your deck with high costs bombs.
    Wow I couldn't imagine how 14 resources would work, maybe my decks aren't too great. I never played MtG or other card games so all i have to go on is the reading I've done.

    I try to have 0-1 cost 20%, 2 cost 30%, 3 cost 30%, 4+ 20% and 16-18 resources.

    Perhaps because everything I'm reading is from MtG, it doesn't properly translate to hex.
    Last edited by primer; 03-21-2014 at 10:11 AM.

  8. #8
    14 is laughable. I started off with only going 16 shards, after a couple screw jobs I try to stick with 17 now.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by primer View Post
    Wow I couldn't imagine how 14 resources would work, maybe my decks aren't too great. I never played MtG or other card games so all i have to go on is the reading I've done.

    I try to have 0-1 cost 20%, 2 cost 30%, 3 cost 30%, 4+ 20% and 16-18 resources.

    Perhaps because everything I'm reading is from MtG, it doesn't properly translate to hex.
    I was listening to a podcast (or watching a video, I can't remember) where someone was talking about his friend who top 8'd either a ptq or daily mtgo event with a 12 land 60 card deck recently. I think it was in standard, so less crazy janky combo potential. I want to see it so badly.

    On topic:

    I usually go 17 in dual color, 15 in mono (depending on shard color and resource curve, of course). I haven't built a draft deck that has been "consistently" mana flooded or screwed yet. Sure, a game or two in a draft, but that's to be expected. When a deck is more than half non-resource cards, odds are against you to draw a resource immediately. That's just basic statistics. The key is to build a deck that doesn't rely on hitting resources every turn, so that you can function off of two or maybe three resources in a pinch. If you're building highcostbomb.dec, consider bumping up to 18 or 19 resources, and expect to be "flooded" more than usual.

  10. #10
    Using EntropyBall's calculations, you had a .05 x .05 chance of drawing none of your diamond shards in two 12 turn games, or 1/400. While that is infrequent, it should be noted that if it never happened, something would be wrong with the shuffler. There have been thousands of draft games played, so you should be one of a handful of people that this has happened to, yet we're not seeing a flood of threads on the boards about this situation. Just from casual observation, it would appear that it is occurring at the appropriate rate.

    Sorry it happened to you, Primer.

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