Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 21 to 29 of 29

Thread: Speculation - Price of Singles

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Gwaer View Post
    I'm more concerned with people getting themselves into trouble. This is a bit like gambling early on. I have some money to play with and will be sinking quite a bit into this early market hoping to come out ahead, I'm prepared to lose every dime of that money, anyone else who reads this thread and decides to try to go the same route should be in that mindset as well. Don't gamble expecting to win big, gamble expecting to lose everything.
    People should really take this to heart.

    All players should hope for the auction house to be as fluid as possible. We don't know exactly what type of system it is going to use, but the better it is the less room there is for someone to make an arbitrage.

    If you're looking to speculate on a card which is by and large undervalued there ought to be quite a bit of room for you, but if you're just looking to buy the "hot" cards cheap and then resell them I think you're going to be in for a shock. The only reason it works on MTGO is the shitty ticket system / lack of a market interface. The reason it works in paper is that stores are able to give instant gratification to drafters who crack a chase card and don't care to keep it.

    -We're going to have an auction house interface
    -We're presumably going to be able to "buy it now" on the auction house

    I don't see where there is room to buy low and sell high outside of speculation.
    Visit Youtube: FunktionFails & Twitch: FunktionFails for hex based videos, articles and more.
    Find me on twitter @FunktionFails

    Less fail, more funktion!

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by funktion View Post
    ....


    I don't see where there is room to buy low and sell high outside of speculation.
    I agree with this, but with cards only being 33-40% of MTGO that means taking the gamble on speculation might not really be worth it.

  3. #23
    -We're going to have an auction house interface
    -We're presumably going to be able to "buy it now" on the auction house

    I don't see where there is room to buy low and sell high outside of speculation.
    Works just fine in WoW. Obviously different game, but your points don't really add up.


    Hex Price - For all your price information!

    Hex Rock League - Join the free to play Hex Rock League now!

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Kroan View Post
    Works just fine in WoW. Obviously different game, but your points don't really add up.
    How does this sort of thing work in wow? After you buy sword +20/dragon scales how do you resell for more than you paid? Is it just a case of people selling very rare items for far less than they are worth due to lack of knowledge?
    Your sig is probably embarrassing.

  5. #25
    Hex, contrary to popular opinion, is not MTGO. The influx of Kickstarter cards, the slow rate at which the KS rewards will rollout, the difference in the size of the player base, the limited number of card sets at start (one), the 'RPG' uses of cards (do commons get more value if you can use them up in the RPG game to do things?) ... there are too many unpredictable things for us to have an accurate guess. Our educated guesses should not be trusted.

    That being said, I would expect there will be three phases in the early months: An initial rush, followed by a crash followed by a recovery. The initial rush will occur as people move to get their key elements for constructed decks they wish to play in tournaments early on. There will be a small enough supply to warrant high prices. Then, after the initial rush, people will slow down their purchases because they have so many KS benefits coming to them and they don't want to overspend for something they'll get in the boosters they have coming to them. Finally, once KS benefits are down to a minimal level and we have a few sets out, costs will stabilize closer to a price determined by market costs and we'll be able to make better predictions. However, that is just speculation.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by stiii View Post
    How does this sort of thing work in wow? After you buy sword +20/dragon scales how do you resell for more than you paid? Is it just a case of people selling very rare items for far less than they are worth due to lack of knowledge?
    I've been dominating the glyph market on my server when I played. Besides crafting an insane amount I also bought all glyphs under a certain price and relisted them. I also bought up other rare items that are not often sold from people who a) needed gold quick or b) didn't know the real worth. Turning a profit is fairly easy if you take advantage of those situations.

    I can imagine the same is true for Hex. People need some platinum to draft, so they sell their rare/legendary cheaper then usually. That's where someone come's in that plays the market.


    Hex Price - For all your price information!

    Hex Rock League - Join the free to play Hex Rock League now!

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Kroan View Post
    I've been dominating the glyph market on my server when I played. Besides crafting an insane amount I also bought all glyphs under a certain price and relisted them. I also bought up other rare items that are not often sold from people who a) needed gold quick or b) didn't know the real worth. Turning a profit is fairly easy if you take advantage of those situations.

    I can imagine the same is true for Hex. People need some platinum to draft, so they sell their rare/legendary cheaper then usually. That's where someone come's in that plays the market.
    I've dominated the glyph market as well. The amount of gold you can make with next to no effort is pretty bonkers.

    I thought I had made a note about it in my post up above but guess I didn't, but I'm talking about doing this outside of market manipulation. Even on the market manipulation end though you should stop and think if you're betting this is going to be like wow.

    Not to mention that the reason it works with glyphs is that almost nobody wants to bother with making glyphs, so you're only competing with the other 2-3 people on your serving that are also trying to corner the glyph market. This is NOTHING like wow in that regard, nor is it anything like MTGO. There is a reason that nearly everyone who plays the AH on wow starts off by doing it with glyphs, nobody else is doing it. This is a stretch but if there's any room for resale it is probably with extremely low drop chance PvE equipment or something. You're probably be able to turn a dime early on just because a lot of people are going to want to get some plat without spending cash, and that a lot of people are going to be listing stuff at weird prices. I don't expect that to last long.

    I resale things for a living. It is easy when you're the only game in town.
    Visit Youtube: FunktionFails & Twitch: FunktionFails for hex based videos, articles and more.
    Find me on twitter @FunktionFails

    Less fail, more funktion!

  8. #28
    Traditional stores (mostly brick and mortar, but also online) make money from MTG singles because they can generally buy them much cheaper (generally 50% or less) than they sell them for. That's not going to be possible with HEX. Except for people who are truly desperate for Platinum, there's almost no need to undercut the market value significantly - just post your singles and forget about them for a few days. That'll squeeze margins for anyone trying to sell cards outside of the Hex AH. And, anyone with half a brain will check both the AH and the non-AH stores for pricing before posting anything, minimizing arbitrage possibilities for the non-AH stores.

    Then you have to take into account the cost of scanning the AH manually 24 hours a day to maintain inventory (and fighting everyone who's trying to make a profit too), being available to fulfill orders quickly, etc. It's going to be a slog to sell cards outside of the game in non-AH stores. Eventually it'll be easier if/when we get an AH API but by that time the in-game AH should be so good (hopefully with features [all available from the card manager] like "buy it now", "buy a playset", "list for market value", "buy when available at X price", historical pricing information for X card, etc.) that it will put any stores that were able to make any money at the beginning out of business.

    So... that leaves the small window of time between start of Beta and the addition of the AH for non-AH stores to truly profit. And, maybe not even then - CZE could decide to restrict trading until the AH opens (unlikely, but possible). My numbers say it's likely not possible to recoup the investment necessary.
    Hex: Shards of Fate KS || Producer

    "The Magi of the Carloth highlands are renowned for their enthusiasm and generosity."
    "Speed is far more important than size when determining the power of a strike."
    "One needs no armor if both your mind and your fist are faster than your enemy's."

  9. #29
    Master Theorycrafter
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    Washburn, IA
    Posts
    735
    MTGO stores run at a margin of, sometimes, only 2%, rather than the 50% markup you see at the local game shop. That's why the bots are so prevalent, and price swings, even on popular cards, are very likely and can sometimes cost a store a day's worth of work. The margins for singles there is rediculously low. Packs are a little better, but limited is the prime format there from what I recall. Drafting is how most people start their drives to 'Go Infinite" so to speak. Or fuel their constructed decks.

    Just saying, singles can be a rough time, even if you're vested i nthe auction house. Now, if they have the market options from games like Guild Wars 2, where you can post a want list on the AH and have someone just randomly sell it to you for the set price, it may be a little more manipulative. However for chase rares and legendaries, it'll always be worth it to chuck it up for more on the Auction House and let more plat come your way at the end of the day.

    I dabbled in the economy of MtGO. I didn't do too poorly, but at the end of the day a bot wasn't worth running, and buying on speculation was all I had. Like when they announced Rancor as an uncommon a couple core sets ago. my stock of Rancors fueling the resergent stompy in Pauper cut almost in half over night. That was rough.
    Pro Player

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •