I am worried that mulligans are too common in draft and sealed. In constructed, you have more control over your deck, so you can include non shard cards to reduce your need to mulligan. So I did some math. My math operates under the assumption that you are using 18 shards in a 40 card deck. I usually mulligan when I have less than or equal to 1 shards or more than or equal to 6. In my ideal world, I would always have 3 shards in my opening hand, but I am pretty happy with 4, but I am too afraid of getting a worse hand with 2 or 5 to mulligan (as the only 6 card hand that would be better in my mind is 3 shards).
So the math I promised:
If you mulligan like me, your chance to mulligan is 10.4%.
If you also mulligan on 2, your chance to mulligan is 32.1%
If you also mulligan on 5, your chance to mulligan is 21.1%
If you also mulligan on 2 and 5, your chance to mulligan is 42.7%
Now if you are drafting then you are expecting to play 6-9 rounds. So you are more likely to see a mulligan than not, regardless of how good of a deck builder you are, unless you get a lot of those non-shard mana helpers. To me this means that mulligans happen too often. There have been a number of suggestions to fix mulligans so I am not even going to bother writing about that. What I want to know is if these numbers sound okay to everyone else, or if you think I am mulliganing too often, or too little.