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Thread: Set 4 early access rant

  1. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by magic_gazz View Post
    You do actually raise a good point. I have heard a couple of people talk about a card that they think is good enough to need banning. None of them can tell us what this card is though. This does give them a chance to buy up cards that combo with this or counter it, giving them an edge on everyone who was not there.
    They aren't prevented from telling you. There was no NDA on the set 4 cards at the invitational. They're refusing to tell you, which is different, and if they say that they're not allowed, they're lying to you and probably making the whole thing up wholesale. I'm reasonably certain that if there were some obvious broken card seen everyone would already know. There were a lot of people at the invitational.

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by magic_gazz View Post
    You do actually raise a good point. I have heard a couple of people talk about a card that they think is good enough to need banning. None of them can tell us what this card is though. This does give them a chance to buy up cards that combo with this or counter it, giving them an edge on everyone who was not there.
    I'm gonna just use this as an example real quick since it seems like there is a decent one. There are a variety of possible situations here:

    a) The players you talked to totally know what they're talking about AND they're right AND the combo becomes "real". They buy up some cards and are able to flip them.
    b) The players you talked to are 'casual' players and while they might think the card/combo is OP it is actually perfectly fine. They buy up some cards and are able to sell them back for a little bit more or less than purchased for once set 4 comes out.
    c) The players grossly overestimated how good those cards were. They buy up a bunch of the cards and are never able to sell them.

    ETC... there are situations where it is kinda decent but for other reasons (hate cards mainly) the combo never materializes.

    Regardless of whether they received advance information from the visit to California or not they are taking a risk. There are far fewer players that know what they're doing in this regard than there are players that THINK they know what they are doing.

    To the OP: Just for clarification, were you buying and selling cards on the auction house on a regular basis prior to this? Cause if you stopped doing something you weren't already doing then there is no change here to discuss. On the other hand stopping selling cards because you think prices might go up is kind of a trap... they might just as well go down.
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  3. #13
    There absolutely is merit to what OP is saying.

    An easy working example was Rootfather and Eye Of Creation. At whatever moment someone had the first glimpse of Set 3, it was apparent there was going to be much more ramp between cards and a champion that facilitated this archetype. Rootfather was around 100 platinum in May/June. I disagree quite strongly that players with early access to cards wouldn't easily be able to identify that these cards would shoot up in value. Maybe they wouldn't have known that it would go up 6x it's value at the time, but it's quite clear that it would be used a lot more than in the past.

    A future example would be something like Jank Bot. Let's say Set 6 decides to focus on an archetype of huge decks. There is a legendary and 4-5 other cards that give you some kind of bonus for 100 or 150+ cards in your deck. The first few outside of CZE themselves that see that archetype in the works would immediately think/know that Jank Bot will go up in value. Jank Bot is around 50-60 plat now, there is no scenario where this is ever going to go down with the addition of these cards coming.

    All that being said, is it a big problem for the health of the game or economy? Not really.... but to dismiss the concern is completely wrong.

  4. #14
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    I think it's a valid concern but as Oss explained it can be a double edged weapon. In reality it usually takes a lot of testing to truly find the best combos and cards and something that looks good in theory doesn't turn out as good as it seemed. Now some archetypes are so obvious that make easy to tell when previous cards are going to be useful, but once again you can be wrong and lose money if you want to gamble stacking those cards. Cards spike in value when they look powerful, but many times people overvalue them (like Zakiir). Others like Reese spike until they win tournaments and people realise they misvalued them.
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  5. #15
    Hopefully after the Majesty debacle, if it was so obvious to the players at the Invitational, it'll get a hard look from the Devs before released.
    Last edited by Tazelbain; 03-28-2016 at 11:08 AM.

  6. #16
    as someone who does AH stuff but wasn't at the invitational there is definitely "insider trading" going on

    there's quite a few previously 30p cards that have been fetching 3 times that much since the invitational (i would rather not mention them here, lest they become unpurchaseable until set 4)

    It sucks, but what are you going to do other than just go to the invitational next time :/

  7. #17
    there will always be people with more insider access than you

    the AH is game is rigged
    fortunately, the AH game is the most boring thing in the world, so just play the real game and don't worry about it

  8. #18
    Heavily believe we will get a full set spoiler + release date this Friday. Cheers to optimism!

  9. #19
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    There was no NDA for entering the event but no photographs were allowed while at the computers. The Hex Team asked nicely and were gracious in the process.

    The difference between the 100k and Gencon is that Gencon is an uncontrollable open forum and convention. The 100k was a privately hosted event with open admission. The 100k can be controlled but Gencon can not. In General we respected our host's hospitality.

    Some folks maybe taking advantage of their knowledge gained at the event but little was written while at the computers and few unofficial photo spoils came from the event. So the OP is not being overly cautious but successful transactions are transparent because of the AH Data. We can see the prices start to move and make value judgements from the data. When speculating a market one has to accept the risks. In addition we were not playing with final forms of every card. You can bet your socks our play data has been analyzed and last minute tweaks were done.

    Speculate at your own risk and soon enough we will have a full card spoiler either before or day of release.
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  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Saeijou View Post
    i mean... the people that went to the invitational invested quite some money to be there... getting a little bit value back seems fair
    I would say I disagree with this simply on the basis that for some people it was very easy to go and for some people (like myself) who live on the other side of the world it is almost no chance.

    Quote Originally Posted by funktion View Post
    I'm gonna just use this as an example real quick since it seems like there is a decent one. There are a variety of possible situations here:

    a) The players you talked to totally know what they're talking about AND they're right AND the combo becomes "real". They buy up some cards and are able to flip them.
    b) The players you talked to are 'casual' players and while they might think the card/combo is OP it is actually perfectly fine. They buy up some cards and are able to sell them back for a little bit more or less than purchased for once set 4 comes out.
    c) The players grossly overestimated how good those cards were. They buy up a bunch of the cards and are never able to sell them.

    ETC... there are situations where it is kinda decent but for other reasons (hate cards mainly) the combo never materializes.

    Regardless of whether they received advance information from the visit to California or not they are taking a risk. There are far fewer players that know what they're doing in this regard than there are players that THINK they know what they are doing.

    To the OP: Just for clarification, were you buying and selling cards on the auction house on a regular basis prior to this? Cause if you stopped doing something you weren't already doing then there is no change here to discuss. On the other hand stopping selling cards because you think prices might go up is kind of a trap... they might just as well go down.
    You raise a good point about there being less people who know what they are doing than who think they know what they are doing. Like anything is it still a gamble.

    For me I still sell cards if I want to sell cards. Holding onto stuff because you are scared it will go up is possibly the worst thing you can do (most of the time). If you are happy to sell at a price today the price tomorrow does not matter as you got the deal you were looking for.

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