Page 1 of 13 12311 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 124

Thread: A Cautionary Tale for Whales

  1. #1

    A Cautionary Tale for Whales

    I understand that you want to buy gold.
    New players want to sell it.
    That's great! It's a win-win right?

    Well, maybe...

    Right now the gold per plat ratio offered has dropped in trade-chat from 1:150 last week, to 1:70 at times this week.

    This means on average a player is making slightly more than double for their time investing in and trading for gold.
    http://hexprice.com/GoldPlat

    Let's take a look back using this helpful historical chart at some key-dates that caused large spikes in the gold-to-plat market place:

    March 5th - Thursday - Hex Update - Large free tournament stress test for March 7th - Most rewards for this tournament hit accounts on March 9th. Look at the AH gold-to-plat spike.

    April 17th - Friday - Hex Update - Free Draft Extension + and Last VIP Tournament times announced for the Goremaster/Cluck AA's: Gold had hit a high since the Arena Launch. Could it be that this Friday Update drove more interest in the Auction House and trade? Ultimately driving gold value back down, and plat value up?

    Finally - May 8th - Friday - Hex Update - AA's in the store will be leaving soon to make-way for new AA's. Huge down-shift in gold-to-plat ratios following.

    Now, I'm not saying don't spend plat on gold due to market forces at work here. What I am saying is, the more money that is spent on gold now when the ratios are low will further decrease our collections value until a large number of new players enter the economy.
    Why?
    Because... When you allow a new demographic of players to freely enter the economy, at a very marginal commitment, you also allow the consumption of packs to increase. Thus increasing the active supply of high tier cards being traded on the AH. Which will in-turn decrease the overall price they are selling for.

    Why is this not a win-win? Well from a holistic perspective of care-bear share this is stupendous! However, if whales and all players would like to have their collections worth more, the trick is to hold your $ and buy gold when the rate is more favorable for the individual holding the plat. Ultimately, someone is buying the plat, which is great, but more hands are using that plat to stretch it further and turn it into free product.

    If a lucky individual hits Uruu in a run. He can make about 106,500 in gold in 1 hour. That is essentially giving that player 1521 plat right now. Not factoring the other loot obtained.

    How do others feel about the current economy, and how easily an update has been manipulating exchange?
    Last edited by nicosharp; 05-12-2015 at 01:36 PM.

  2. #2
    High Tomb Lord
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    The Bowels of Heck
    Posts
    1,940
    March Spike was caused by Frost Ring launch, I do believe.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by israel.kendall View Post
    March Spike was caused by Frost Ring launch, I do believe.
    I thought as much as well. Just couldn't find the update/link to it.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by nicosharp View Post
    AA's in the store will be leaving soon to make-way for new AA's.
    To be clear the update doesn't say anything about new AAs. It just says the existing AAs will be removed soon. "bigger things" could be anything... Set 3? A new, more insidious, Gold sink? Who knows?

    Also, more generally, you can't read anything into the volatility of Gold prices now with so many of the faucets and sinks missing. It's just not worthwhile worrying about a market anomaly brought on by fear of scarcity.
    Hex: Shards of Fate KS || Producer

    "The Magi of the Carloth highlands are renowned for their enthusiasm and generosity."
    "Speed is far more important than size when determining the power of a strike."
    "One needs no armor if both your mind and your fist are faster than your enemy's."

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by hex_colin View Post
    To be clear the update doesn't say anything about new AAs. It just says the existing AAs will be removed soon. "bigger things" could be anything... Set 3? A new, more insidious, Gold sink? Who knows?

    Also, more generally, you can't read anything into the volatility of Gold prices now with so many of the faucets and sinks missing. It's just not worthwhile worrying about a market anomaly brought on by fear of scarcity.
    Fair enough. I would like to see the new Gold sinks. I also agree with you about faucets/sinks missing, but more importantly, game-play missing to drive the interest in PvE where Gold is acquired. I'm sure boredom of the grind is a huge factor here as well, for those hoarding and purchasing Gold.

  6. #6
    Master Theorycrafter
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Euless, TX
    Posts
    628
    We can not infer long term trends but we can evaluate short term incentives. We are just before a new set with news of a desired asset being available for a limited time. Gold comes from arena at a rate of about 6700 every hour per active player. Every player needs 600,000 gold for a playset of the AA + their chests + new cards. Demand is high and there is now a single source of new gold.

    When you add it up gold should be destroyed faster than it is generated until most players have their AA playset complete. The news about the AA just accelerated that trend.

    I guess this is a classic market shock.
    HexHunterMokog:

    My Latest Video: DeckTech: Elemental Storms!
    @ YouTube @ Facebook @ Twitter @ Twitch.tv

    Learn from Failure. Be Humble in Success.

  7. #7
    If you want to trade plat for gold in order to buy aa cards that might spike in value in a year, good for you. I wouldn't consider that person a whale by a longshot. Almost by definition a whale pretty much doesn't care if plat-gold value changes unless it is extreme.

    I hope gold stays valuable, it is healthy for the game. When chests are able to be opened the value might increase.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Mokog View Post
    Every player needs 600,000 gold for a playset of the AA + their chests + new cards.
    I highly doubt all active players are going for a full playset. For example i find sappers charge a useless card that i never add to any of my decks, so i am not going to buy those AA's. Only maybe the top 5% of the rich / active players might go for a full playset, the rest just a few they can afford, or none at all and simply sell them for profits.
    Since farming the arena for 600k gold is not what almost none of us can do alone, thats most likely more than 100 arena runs, counting in the losses against xarlox and such as well.

  9. #9
    High Tomb Lord
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    The Bowels of Heck
    Posts
    1,940
    Quote Originally Posted by hex_colin View Post
    Also, more generally, you can't read anything into the volatility of Gold prices now with so many of the faucets and sinks missing. It's just not worthwhile worrying about a market anomaly brought on by fear of scarcity.
    New faucets and sinks bring more volatility, along with various news and events causing volatility in gold value. It is something that must be paid very close attention to if someone wants to profit on the market. I consider it a quite worthwhile thing to worry over personally.

    Last edited by israel.kendall; 05-12-2015 at 12:36 PM.

  10. #10
    Gigantisaur
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    Cerulea, Carloth
    Posts
    1,417
    Related whales will want primal chests:

    To get a primal chest on average requires 250k gold which are current market rates is over 3000plat

    The chance to single upgrade a chest is 12% and double upgrade 3% so either you are double upgrading rares or single upgrading legendaries either way if there is an exclusive AA in the primal chests whales will want 4 of each. We don't even know the drop rate but assume the top AA is always in the primal chest otherwise it will get crazy expensive for that playset - right ? on this basis alone I fell gold prices will continue to improve unless new taps are forthcoming ...
    Buying Gold 120 gold per platinum details Here

    IGN ALCHEMY KICKSTARTER BACKER MEMBER OF THE UNNAMED COUNCIL

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •