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Thread: Chest Fest - An Explosion of Loot-Related Data

  1. #1

    Chest Fest - An Explosion of Loot-Related Data

    Hello everyone!

    Dino here! Some of you may already be aware, but Cel and I, as well as numerous others including TrioGG, Hackychannel, Bosmopar, Sithos, frs19, Unnamed Council/Roy_G, SilentSnake, and Bekkir have been collecting data on chest opening since the advent of the set 3 patch. By our powers combined (and with a silly amount of time spent in excel), we now have data for over 5000 opened chests across all three sets and are finally at the point where we feel comfortable sharing some of our findings with the community. It is my hope that you find this information interesting, helpful, and perhaps inspiring!

    So here goes~

    All of the following data comes from this spreadsheet.

    Feel free to peruse whenever you like, and we will keep this updated periodically as more data becomes available.

    Because the data is so dense, I would like to start with a quick overview and then segue into a list of things I personally found interesting about chest drops. If there is anything you are interested in that I do not cover, feel free to let us know in the comments below.



    Here you can see the percentage drops broken up by chest (at the top) and equipment rarity (along the side). “Other” represents any non-equipment drop, including AAs, Sleeves, Stardust, etc. It is important to recognize that these percentages are calculated by drop SLOT. For Common, Uncommon, and Rare this is synonymous with chest, but Legendary and Primals drop more than one item so when you look at these percentages please keep that in mind.

    Fun Facts:

    • The highest % drops always correspond to chest rarity (between 50-70%). E.g. Common drops mostly common equipment, Uncommon mostly uncommon, etc.
    • Uncommon and Rare chests have the most overlap, with Rare chests having a little over a 30% chance to drop uncommon or common equipment.
    • AA cards are RARE. In fact, when you combine all AAs together each chest has only ~5% chance to drop one. The only exception is Primal.
    • Not all AAs are created equal: There are classes of AAs that only drop in higher rarity chests (For example, AA Crash of Beasts only drops in Legendary and higher)
    • Stardust is a 1+ deal: Each chest can drop stardust of its own rarity plus one higher.
    • Mercenaries CANNOT drop in Common and Uncommon chests.
    • PvE cards CANNOT drop in Common chests.
    • Extra booster packs are exclusive to Legendary chests (so far, anyways. Our Primal sample size is fairly small).
    • Legendary equipment is RARE. You only have between a 1-3% chance to get a given piece of legendary equipment in a Legendary chest drop, and legendary equipment can only drop from Legendary chests or higher.

    Feel free to draw your own conclusions from all this, but one thing that I now believe quite firmly after crunching these numbers is that Mercenaries and Legendary Equipment in general are being undervalued on the AH. I know that the demand is currently fairly low on these items, but the minimum cost to upgrade a rare chest to a legendary chest is 86 plat (assuming an upgrade in one spin and ignoring the potential cost to GET a rare chest in the first place). Given that the chance of getting these items are fairly low (<50% for legendary equipment and <15% for mercenaries), I think that any price below 100 plat is a steal.

    Finally, if you would like to get involved and help us refine this data, please do! This kind of undertaking is only possible through concerted effort and interest from the community and we are not done by a long shot. Especially for legendary chests and primals, more is always better. To make it as painless as possible to help out, I have put together an Excel template that you can download and use when collecting chest data.

    It can be found here.

    It has some data validation foo on there to make our lives easier and ensure that we don’t have to spend hours proof-reading entries by hand (…again >.>). We are most interested in higher rarity chests since they are by far the hardest to get data on, but all chest data is welcome. Once you have a decent chunk of data, feel free to send that excel sheet to thetropiary@gmail.com with the subject title “Chest Fest.” Many thanks!

    TL;DR – Data is beautiful. Discuss!
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    Last edited by Dinotropia; 08-09-2015 at 11:06 AM.

  2. #2

  3. #3
    Very nice. Thank you alot.
    Ceterum censeo gameforge couponem esse delendam

  4. #4

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Stok3d View Post
    Love this! I have a lot of data on primal if interested too... just lmk.
    Absolutely! The more data the better and primals and legendaries are by far the hardest to come by. If you want to send that along, that would be fantastic

  6. #6
    Gigantisaur
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    New York City
    Posts
    1,038
    I have been selling my legendary gear way too cheap it seems...

    Awesome number crunching. My hero!

  7. #7
    Keep in mind there's not much of a gold faucet currently either, hence the inflated 'cost' of spinning chests.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Kami View Post
    Keep in mind there's not much of a gold faucet currently either, hence the inflated 'cost' of spinning chests.
    That is absolutely true. My current suspicion is that HexENT knows that arena, as cool as it is, can get tedious quickly when you grind it over and over. As such, they are artificially inflating gold prices to help with that pain point and to be f2p player friendly. It is my 100% unfounded belief that the current 1:100ish plat to gold ratio will fall when full PvE comes out and everyone is playing like crazy. No grinding required.

    We shall see what happens, but the current rarity-cost analysis stands I feel. Some of these items are waaaaay rarer than their AH prices would suggest.

  9. #9
    That assumption MrHyde is based on the idea that PvE isn't going to have it's own gold sink that is going to eat the new gold faucet from a f2p perspective. CZE didn't set the rate that gold is going for at 1:100 the community did, the idea that there will be more gold in the economy with 0 grinding is assuming that the gold that PvE naturally generates without grinding is not going to be consumed through normal PvE play.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by zadies View Post
    CZE didn't set the rate that gold is going for at 1:100 the community did
    While your point that PvE will bring with it a whole host of other gold sinks is a good one and well taken, I feel that the above statement is problematic because it is both true and false at the same time. On the one hand, we have the AH and a free-ish exchange of goods and currency because of it. On the other, the scarcity of that currency is deliberately tuned by HexENT. Thus, while it is true that some player somewhere had to decide that it was worth it to spend 1 plat to buy 100 gold, that decision was in many ways helped along by a gold-drop dial set to drip in willy wonka's factory. Of course, gold has to be desirable in the first place, and thus begins the delicate dance between faucet and sink.

    In short, games are awesome and economies are complicated XD

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